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Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
For nearly three decades we have shared expert analysis, news, blogs and member forum discussions especially focusing on the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins.
Today is the final day of Florida’s first Disaster Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday of 2024. While another is scheduled from Aug. 24th to Sept. 6th, given the forecasts of a hyperactive year and considering what Florida has already seen with extreme flooding, why wait?
El Niño has come to an end and La Niña is expected to develop over the peak of the hurricane season, making it easier for strong storms and hurricanes to form and thrive in the Atlantic.
-neutral conditions are present. La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January). This is the final Advisory. A Watch remains in effect. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
**HIGH RISK**
A 🚨HIGH RISK🚨 of Excessive Rainfall is now in effect across parts of South Florida (including the Miami metro region) as additional rounds of heavy rain are likely today over very sensitive locations still recovering from yesterday's flooding. Stay weather aware!
FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY
NWS Miami
6/12 at 4:10pm: ***Life-threatening flooding*** is now occurring with numerous non-stop reports coming in.
A Flash Flood Emergency remains in effect until 5:30pm. We are now up to SIX Flash Flood Warnings across South Florida.
SEEK HIGHER GROUND, GET OFF THE ROADS.
90L's center, offshore of Sarasota, has been getting better defined this afternoon and increasingly resembles a highly sheared tropical cyclone, albeit still hybrid and associated with a boundary. The intensity of 90L overall appears to be on the rise, with flooding risks going up, as well as the threat for locally strong gusts and brief tornadoes/waterspouts.
Considerable Flooding underway
While the center of highly sheared Invest 90L may be just off the west coast of central Florida, most of the firehose is dousing the southern part of the sunshine state, where urban areas are becoming increasingly vulnerable to excessive rainfall as the dousing continues.
Florida Division of Emergency Management Encourages Floridians to Take Advantage of Florida’s Two Disaster Sales Tax Holidays for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Read more here: bit.ly/3UYTWcx
Levi Cowan update on the 2024 Hurricane Season as a whole
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFID_jfNId4 (no current activity)
Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/You can support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594Follow my Twitter for more fre...
This also has the effect of the Northern Lights (aurora borealis) being visible as far south as Florida and Texas (easier to see with less light pollution)
G5 (Extreme) Conditions have been observed...
Mark Sudduth discussing storm preparations with Dan Brown of the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Hurricane season is closing in and it's time to really talk preparedness. With the expectation of a very busy s...
(Image credit: NOAA's National Weather Service)Download Image The best time to prepare is before hurricane season begins. Avoid having to rush through potentially life-saving preparations by waiting until it’s too late. Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, a
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0uXwcl97pM
Colorado State University / Dr. Phil Klotzbach has put out the 2024 season projections
A line of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to move across the Southeast today bringing damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be most likely this morning across southwest GA and the FL Panhandle and then this afternoon/evening in the eastern Carolinas.
Mark Sudduth video update on the system approaching Florida.
Support this channel via Patreon and have access to our live feeds, discord access, original content and much more! Please like a...
***This information is outdated***
12/14 | An updated timeline of weather hazards through the weekend. The forecast remains active with multiple weather advisories and warnings in effect. Check the latest info at weather.gov/mlb.
NHC Advisories will begin this afternoon on Invest 98L in the western Caribbean
Potential Tropical Cyclone 22L
SUMMARY...Heavy to extreme rainfall will continue to threaten the
highly urbanized I-95 corridor of southeast FL overnight, with
areas of significant and locally life-threatening flash flooding
likely to continue.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery continues to show a very
well-organized and concentrated area of heavy to locally extreme
rainfall over the I-95 urban corridor of southeast FL from Fort
Lauderdale southward down through Miami and Homestead. The
convection driving this rainfall continues to be facilitated by a
mesoscale area of low pressure advancing slowly northeastward
through the middle and upper FL Keys along a frontal zone draped
across the region.
Areas near and to the northeast of this low center up along
coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward counties are seeing very
strong surface moisture convergence and enhanced frontogenetic
forcing which coupled with proximity of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
is generating sustainable convection with occasionally extreme
rainfall rates.
The rainfall rates over the last hour have come down somewhat, but
the latest MRMS data shows rainfall rates still routinely reaching
into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range over the I-95 urban corridor from
Fort Lauderdale down through Miami and Homestead.
GC-MRMS storm totals for the event are running very high over
southern parts of Miami-Dade counties with amounts running
anywhere from 5 to 10+ inches. Storm totals closer into the I-95
metropolitan corridors are running generally as high as 3 to 6
inches to this point with locally heavier amounts.
The 00Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR runs generally favor an
additional 3 to 6 inches of rain with locally heavier amounts
going through late tonight for the aforementioned major
metropolitan areas as very heavy and concentrated rains with the
slowly evolving coastal low center continue. These additional
rains may allow for some storm totals to locally approach or
exceed 12 inches.
Areas of significant and locally life-threatening flash flooding
will continue overnight from these additional heavy to extreme
rainfall amounts.
Orrison
Wed Nov 15 | Windy conditions and northward moving showers today. Advisories continue for winds, dangerous seas, surf, and rip currents. Water runup and minor beach erosion possible surrounding high tide near mid morning. Heavy rain potential for tonight, especially along coast.
Hurricane has Rapidily Intensified and is now a about to make landfall in on a highly populated region along the Pacific coast of Mexico.
It looks as if the area of interest we have been tracking in the extreme southwestern Caribbean will have NHC Advisories issued and interests in Central America may want to prep for a "Category Slow" tropical cyclone, the center of which is presently just offshore and soon to be inland, eventually.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=114821&gonew=1
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#category5 #hurricaneotis
It looks as if the area of interest we have been tracking in the extreme southwestern Caribbean will have NHC Advisories issued and interests in Central America may want to prep for a "Category Slow" tropical cyclone, the center of which is presently just offshore and soon to be inland, eventually. http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=114821&gonew=1#UNREAD
The National Hurricane Center has begun hourly position and intensity updates on Idalia. The hourly updates will continue as long as Idalia's eye is easily trackable in ground-based radar data. ...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES INLAND... NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Idalia has strengthened further. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The minimum pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft has fallen to 960 mb (28.35 inches). SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 84.6W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Pasch
A slight lean in to the right may be underway based on recent radar trends. The next recon missions should enter #Idalia soon TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 A. 29/2030Z,2330Z,30/0230Z B. AF### 1310A IDALIA C. 29/1845Z D. 25.8N 84.7W E. 29/2000Z TO 30/0230Z F. SFC T0 15,000 FT G. FIX FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43 A. 30/0000Z B. NOAA3 1410A IDALIA C. 29/2000Z D. 26.5N 84.6W E. 29/2115Z TO 30/0215Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
30 Years ago today Hurricane Andrew made landfall in South Florida, this radar is from when it approached. The radar stops at landfall because the radar was destroyed by the strong winds. It remains one of Florida's costliest disasters, particularly for Homestead. Nothing in Florida until Hurricane Michael on Mexico Beach has since reached that level of intensity in Florida.
#98L as it pushed inland this morning through early afternoon. Beautiful system bringing much needed rain to south Texas. Some locations already seeing flooding, however, and that is likely to continue.
Not yet Invest tagged. There have already been two disturbances this season that NHC did not upgrade in real-time that are very possibly candidates for post-season review (90L, 92L). This feature could be Invest tagged soon if trends persist. Already very much looks and acts like a T.D.
The Moderate and High Risk Flash Flood threat continues Left: Elongated low pressure in S Tx with tropical fetch Right: Tropical Storm Elsa over Florida and the southeast
Areas affected...Western Peninsular Florida...Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 070640Z - 071230Z Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0470 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 242 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 SUMMARY...Tropical Storm Elsa. Significant flooding likely across DISCUSSION...Surface center of Elsa is now starting to see a disconnection from mid to upper level center as it races northward...as such, boundary layer to 5H is sharpening on the eastern hemisphere of the circulation with best deep layer moisture convergence within the SE quadrant and focused on the first outer band from Port Charlotte to Sanibel Island and upstream into the Gulf. Prolonged training from Port Charlotte to Manatee county has resulted in some observed reports of 5 to 7" over the last few hours, matching well to MRMS along the band. This has resulted in strong hydrological response with max unit stream flow values over 600-1000 cfs/smi indicative of rapid inundation and flash flooding...and over 200% of even the very high FFG values in the region. Trends on the Hi-Res CAMS have been supporting the 00z ARW/ARW2 versus the HRRR even with hourly assimilation, and so is the preferred solutions moving forward over the next 3-6hrs across Western Florida. Given position of 5H vort center along the SE quadrant at this time, rotating north soon, deepest convergence of the band will support some slow westward retrograde with a slow northward shift. Concurrent with backing steering flow and less deep southerly unidirectional flow may allow for greater concentration of heaviest rainfall convective bands a bit off of the worst affected areas. Still, CIRA LPW denotes Sfc-850mb values over 1.25" which is about as high as observed though, dry slot appears to be nosing further south across Naples, the 85-5H layers show increased moisture on coastal Charlotte to Manatee county supporting conditioned hourly rates of 2.5-3". This keeps the greatest risk of rapid in
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