This is the storm that hit this morning at 3 AM, recorded by me. It was a good one! The video is 20 minutes long, but Facebook won't let me upload it. I had to cut it down to 3 minutes.
6:12 PM MONDAY: Here is a really cool radar depiction of the isolated thunderstorms that popped up along the lake breeze this afternoon. You can see the numerous outflow boundaries produced by the storms on radar, indicated by the moving lines. Storms in this environment don't last long due to the lack of shear and appreciable moisture, but can dump a lot of rain in a small area. Storms will diminish by sundown. Tomorrow, storms will be a little more widespread.
VIDEO AND PICTURE POST: It was quite a show this morning! This was at home. Let's see those storm and damage videos and photos! Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this evening. Right now, it looks like south of I-88 will have the best shot. Timing TBD. This is good. Our water logged northern suburbs need a break.
Thunderstorm driving around Algonquin
Images for tonight's storm analysis. Check the page for details.
A quick severe weather update on Father's Day!
8:45 PM SATURDAY UPDATE:
The forecast is on track for tomorrow. A wave of showers and thunderstorms will move through Chicagoland late tomorrow morning from about 9 AM to 1 PM. The rain could be heavy at times. The line will quickly exit by the afternoon with a dry but humid period afterward. By later afternoon, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, but I don't expect anything severe at this point. Here is a future radar loop from 8 AM to 6 PM for reference.
4 PM TUESDAY UPDATE: The brand new runs of the models now show severe storms making it to Chicagoland, especially west of Chicago with a sudden weakening near the lake.
To be honest, THIS looks a lot more reasonable. The earlier runs showing the line completely dying didn't make much sense. THIS I CAN SAY FOR SURE:
The line will not be as intense as the mayhem going on in Iowa right now. There will be considerable weakening of the line before it gets here. The tornado threat is much lower here. The timing looks to be between 9 PM and midnight, earliest west, latest east. Even with the weakening, significant downdraft instability levels could create a situation where the storms could have very intense wind gusts. This is the kind of line that removes weak roofs from houses and similar damage. We will have to see if it happens that way.
12:20 PM TUESDAY UPDATE: You can't make this up! Take a look at the latest radar loop from the normally reliable HRRR model. Looking at it from a meteorologist standpoint, the issue we have is that there will be some very strong capping aloft over Chicagoland. It's a layer of dry air that the models think will completely erode the line before it gets here. HOWEVER I will say this: Sometimes, models do overestimate the capping layer. The line could survive into our area, but the chance for widespread severe weather is diminishing by the hour. Wisconsin has a much better chance at the line holding together due to better moisture up that way. This isn't done yet. It could still go the other way.
It's quite a view out there this evening with the anvil of a dying thunderstorm over the area. This originated from a thunderstorm that was west of Aurora over corn country. The anvil has spread out nearly 80 miles to the east of it, blown by strong upper level winds. Anvil tops form when thunderstorms grow so high that they hit the edge of the weather layer. The storm has no way to go up, so it spreads out like an anvil top instead.
6:25 PM THURSDAY: New thunderstorms are beginning to fire up far west and southwest of Chicagoland. Currently trajectory would take these into our western and northern suburbs between 9 PM and midnight. They should hold together in some fashion. We do have some weak outflow boundaries from the earlier storms floating around too, which could create a few more cells.
JUST INCREDIBLE! Watch the live view from The GOES East Satellite that orbits VERY HIGH above the earth. You can see the eclipse move across the country and what it looked like from space. You can also see the night approaching from the right.
7 AM THURSDAY FORECAST UPDATE: Today is the last day we will be stuck under this upper level low pressure system! Another final wave of rain and snow will move through later this morning through the afternoon. Here is the loop from the latest HRRR model. Temperatures will be held down to the low 40s due to clouds and extremely cold air aloft.
The low will FINALLY move east tonight, with gradually clearing skies tomorrow. Cold air will take a while to erode, so highs will be held down into the 40s tomorrow despite sunshine returning. We should see 50s on Saturday as our surrounding airmass finally begins to respond to the high sun angle. Yet ANOTHER system will bring widespread rain to Chicagoland Sunday into Monday morning. However, the air will turn much warmer after this system with highs in the 60s for most of next week away from the lake, but stubborn lake breezes will keep Chicago city and near shore areas in the 50s for most days. Typical of Spring. The long-range pattern is definitely looking warmer but still active. I don't think we will dry out much this spring.
11:30 AM TUESDAY DETAILED UPDATE: This animation is for now through tomorrow night. We've got a pretty wild storm moving through Chicagoland over the next two days with a crazy motion. Follow the "L", which is the center. The storm moves overhead this evening and into Michigan, and then retrogrades westward into Wisconsin, and then drops back south right on top of us again tomorrow! Blue is snow. Green is rain.
A cold rain will continue for most of today, with the heaviest activity north of Chicago. The center of the low drops into the 970s tonight, which is very strong. Areas of strong winds will be possible if you aren't directly underneath it, kind of like being in the eye. Since the storm will swing right over Chicagoland tonight into Michigan, and back over the top us later tomorrow, we will have some windy periods followed by calm conditions.
What about snow? As you can see, Chicagoland will mostly be in the "dry slot" of the storm tonight with little or no precipitation. As the storm moves back west and south tomorrow, snow will break out in Chicagoland as the low pulls cold air south. Some minor accumulations look possible on the grass, but it looks like temperatures will be above freezing all day tomorrow. Any snow that falls will melt fast. It's likely we see little or no accumulations on roads and maybe only a brief coating on the grass during heavier snow bursts. Residual moisture will linger even on Thursday with a few rain or snow showers. FINALLY the skies should begin to clear on Friday, but the leftover cold pool aloft will keep temperatures in the 40s on Friday and Saturday. That means that it won't be until SUNDAY when the last influence of this storm FINALLY gets out of here. However, new data has ANOTHER big cutoff low impacting us late Sunday into Monday with more rain. Not only will this ruin the warm-up, but it will also really threaten our view of the eclipse. I am not liking what I am seeing on the models. My only hope is that there could
4 PM THURSDAY UPDATE: Widespread rain will push into Chicagoland early tomorrow morning, mainly between 3 and 6 AM. Periods of rain will be likely on and off all day, tapering off to drizzle tomorrow night. A soaker for sure. Chilly weather will accompany the rain and following it, with highs in the 40s all weekend. 60s return next week.
6:16 PM UPDATE: WHAT TO EXPECT TONIGHT: Isolated storms north and west of Chicago will grow upscale into a huge complex of storms that will impact all of Chicagoland this evening. This will occur after 8 PM. The tornado threat is looking near zero for most of Chicagoland now, but there could be some brief spin ups on the front of the line. Hail and strong winds will be the main threat Also, the cold front will soon be undercutting the storms, so temperatures will drop pretty dramatically this evening, even with thunder and lightning going on. Today is the last day we will be in the 70s for the foreseeable future. More typical March weather will be with us for the rest of the week.
Sunday evening live update for tomorrow's conditional severe weather threat.
