Firelands Storm Team

07/06/2024

Good morning everybody!

Looking like a great start to the weekend today, happy Friday! Skies will be sunny today, with a chance of clouds coming back in later, and can’t rule out the chance for an isolated shower or two through out the area, but we should stay dry. Cooler conditions will be with us today, as temps will reach the low to mid 70s, the humidity will stay low as well. Only downside, is the winds will be on the increase today but the winds won’t be anything crazy. Gusts to 30-35 today when they hit their peak.

There is, once again, a *BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT* in effect for the lake shore today. Erie and Lorain counties, to be specific, but again, a HIGH risk for rip currents exists across the lake shore. If you plan to go out to the beaches today, it is highly suggested swimmers do not go in the water.

Pretty quiet today, again, winds will increase as the day goes on. Nothing crazy though. Should be a very nice day. This weekend should follow suit as well, but again, more on that later.

We will be back with more if necessary, but until then, have a great day everybody and happy Friday! Stay safe out there!

06/06/2024

Good morning everybody!

There’s a weak area of convection towards Toledo right now, making its way to the area. This small line of showers is making its way here, but whether it holds itself together or not, time will tell. We’re looking at some light rain in this line, it does extend back towards the Ohio/Indiana border, so it should be in the western part of our area in about an hour. It may not even be reaching the ground, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see any rain out of this.

Beyond this, skies should begin to clear behind this area of rain. Temps should get into the mid to upper 70s across the area, some western and southern portions of the area could hit 80. Otherwise pretty quiet today and not much going on. *If you plan to be on the beaches today, there is a beach hazards statement for Lorain county for the potential for rip currents today. But the potential for rip currents extend across the lake shore today.* if you are out there it will be encouraged that swimmers don’t go in the water today.

We will be back with further updates if needed, but likely not until our daily update tomorrow. Until then, stay safe out there! Have a great day!

05/06/2024

Good evening.

It appears as though the strongest storms are now east of the area. Looks like they got bigger and strong out over the lake and they are north of Cleveland now. The severe threat, though minimal, is now over. Radar shows more steady rain coming but this will exit the area between 8pm and probably 10pm or so, depending on where you are across the area. Steady rain, some imbedded thunder are still possible, and any thunderstorms that come around, could potentially create some winds gusts up to 40mph.

We’re looking at considerably less humid conditions for tomorrow. Sunny skies will return too! Highs will in the upper 70s for most of the area, but again, it will feel pretty cool out with the lower humidity.

Stay tuned for further updates. But unless we need to, we will see you all in the morning. Stay safe, stay dry and have a great night!

05/06/2024

A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of Ottawa and Sandusky counties. This storm is moving east at 35mph. Again, gusty winds and small hail are possible. This is the red circle.

The blue circle, is the strong storm capable of 50mph gusts and small hail, that will affect southern Seneca, southwestern Huron, and Richland counties. This storm is moving northeast at 35mph.

These storms are not overly organized, but again, gusty winds and small hail, as said before are our main threats. These will slowly make their way across the area through dinner time. I really find it hard to believe we’d see any severe weather out of this, but I have been wrong before. They are very borderline severe now. They have had hail cores, then the hail cores go away. They look mean, and scary on radar, but nothing we can’t handle.

Stay tuned for further updates! We will bring them to you as needed!

05/06/2024

A strong thunderstorm, (circled) is about to move into parts of Huron, Richland and maybe Seneca counties. Wind gusts up to 50mph and small hail are possible. However, it doesn’t appear there is a hail core in there on this radar image.

Stay tuned for further updates! We will bring them to you as needed.

05/06/2024

Good afternoon everybody!

Clouds have stuck around and even some rain in Lorain county. I think the further east you go the less of severe weather threat you have today. Overall, as we said before the threat is a low end threat today, and the Storm Prediction Center seems to be in line with that thinking. They issued a mesoscale discussion for a 20% chance for a watch to be issued, so it’s unlikely we see one right now, but that could change so stay tuned.

Overall everything remains valid from yesterday and this morning except the tornado threat has been lowered to no chance now, but with this set up we have coming, any strong storm could spin off a quick, brief tornado, but chances are very slim. Damaging winds and torrential rain remain our biggest threats today, small hail is possible as well. We do remain under a *MARGINAL RISK* for severe weather today, so the threat, though small, is still there.

Stay tuned for any updates, we will bring them to you as we can, and as needed. Until then, stay cool and stay safe!

05/06/2024

Good morning everybody!

Nothing has changed from yesterday as far as the weather goes today. We still remain under a *MARGINAL RISK* for severe weather, area wide today. All modes do remain possible, but again, damaging winds and torrential rain remain the most likely, followed by large hail and a brief isolated tornado or two.

I do notice a weak area of convection on the radars this morning. It appears likely that, that has shifted and moved through the area to the east. Not everybody got into that, I’m sure, as it wasn’t a very large area, nor did it appear to be heavy rain either. That said, depending on cloud cover the rest of the morning, this runs the possibility of limiting the storm growth for this afternoon. If that happens, severe weather will be less likely this afternoon and evening, rather we would just be looking at the potential for some extremely heavy rain, isolated wind gusts and maybe some small hail imbedded in the rain/storms.

With all that said, an area wide, severe weather outbreak still seems unlikely at this point. The line of showers and storms we will be watching for this afternoon and evening currently is located west of Chicago and moving this way, ever so slowly. Again, gonna have to keep an eye on potential lingering cloud cover, though satellite shows clear skies to our west. Otherwise the ingredients are there for a few strong to severe storms. We will update as needed, but that’s what we have for you now

Until needed later, please stay tuned for further updates! Stay cool, and stay safe out there!

04/06/2024

Good afternoon everybody!

As promised an update before the weather moves through. This won’t be a big update mostly because most of the details from early this morning remain the same. There are a couple changes, but again, nothing big.

We remain under a *MARGINAL RISK* for severe weather tomorrow. Truly, I still hang on to the belief this is a low end threat and won’t be a widespread outbreak. The hazards have changed to now include all weather modes, so damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are on the table for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Again, I really think our biggest threats tomorrow are damaging winds, and some small hail, even then I don’t know that hail needs to be included. However, in keeping in line with integrity and transparency, with what is being forecasted by the Storm Prediction Center, that’s what they are saying now. Again, personally, I still think damaging winds are our main threat for tomorrow.

Along with that, the humidity is pretty high right now. That will remain with us over night, it’ll tick down a bit, with the sun going down. Chances for rain and imbedded thunder do increase late this evening and into the over night. The storm chances are greater tomorrow, late morning through the evening. With that, and high humidity, torrential rain is extremely likely tomorrow. We could see up to 1 inch of rain tomorrow, locally in some spots, even more. So keep that in mind, the humidity needs to get out of the atmosphere and ultimately go somewhere, so here is where it is headed.

So again, brief summary. *MARGINAL RISK* for severe weather tomorrow. All modes are possible, but again, i feel as though, damaging winds and torrential rain are the most likely issues. We will update in the morning again, at some point, to bring you the most up to date information.

Until then, stay cool, stay dry and safe everybody!

04/06/2024

Good morning everybody!

Gonna hit ya a little early today, but that’s what happens when you have kiddos. Anyhow, more of the same today, as we had yesterday. Looks like we will see some more clouds, than we had yesterday start to build in, especially late in the day. This will be ahead of our next low pressure system that will pass through the Great Lakes region late tonight and into tomorrow. If you remember correctly, this was the day we high lighted this weekend for the possibility of some active weather. More on this below. But, I think we get through today dry. It’ll be much warmer than anticipated though, yesterday, as we head for the mid to upper 80s, definitely would not be surprised to see 90 in the western parts and in our southern parts. The humidity will be on the rise as well through the day.

In the Storm Prediction Center’s day 2 outlook updated about 3 hours ago, they have increased our area to a *MARGINAL RISK* for severe weather. I’m truly not surprised they went this route, but I really feel like this is a low end severe weather threat. Our main, and really only threat, they are high lighting for tomorrow, is damaging winds, I wouldn’t rule out some small hail tomorrow either. Again, this is a low end threat, but a threat nonetheless. This will not be a severe weather outbreak, by any means. With that said, we will keep an eye on this and see what happens. We will likely drop another update later today.

But that’s what we have for you for now, we will be keeping an eye on the latest data for tomorrow, and update when needed. Until then, have a great day, stay cool, and stay safe out there!

04/06/2024

Good evening everybody.

Over the years we have prided ourselves in giving accurate weather information up to about 3 days out. Anything over 3 days just simply changes too much, and can completely take a full circle several times before it ends up on something that may, or may not pan out. We always give the most advance heads up and warning that we can give, while feeling confident in what we are seeing on models, on radar, etc, all while trying not to freak anybody out. We do look into the medium and long range models just to see what could be coming down the pipeline, and see what’s out there and what may need to be watched closely, or what could be let go as a day to day watch. We don’t hang out hats on one model run, nor do we forecast based on one model run.

We bring this to your attention, because not terribly long ago, we received a message about a potential set up that could bring us widespread severe weather, that never panned out, which is exactly how we forecasted it to go. We went back and forth with this person over the span of about 2 days and we came to the conclusion that he does the exact opposite of what we do, and he was trying to tell us how to run our page. Upon further investigation we have seen that he continues to push out the narrative that anything and everything 2-3+ weeks out is always solid information. This is never the case! Weather information changes daily, and to be honest that’s why you are all seeing daily updates from us, almost all the time. We feel it’s more accurate to forecast up to 3 days out, even though local media outlets (they can be trusted) go further sometimes and bring it to light before us. However, we feel as though we are far more successful in bringing it to you up to 3 days out, rather than 7-10 days out even though we may see opportunities that far in advance. We feel as though anything more than 3 days out, is beyond irresponsible and “hyping” the situation. We know how to push the point across and we hope you know that we do our best to bring you accurate information without the hype.

Moral of the post here, and apologies for rambling here. Please, do be careful about what you see from other people. We do this in our free time, and we do this as a service to the area. This started as just a small page that we figured we would get friends and family to follow but nothing more. We are more than excited, happy and beyond grateful for EVERYBODY that has found us! We are extremely happy and grateful that so many of you have reached out to us and given us huge props and shoutouts, and grateful, beyond words, to how many of you come to this page FIRST! Just know, that your trust in us means more than you can ever imagine.

Thank you so much for being here and we look forward to being here for years to come! Have a great night everybody and see you tomorrow morning! Stay safe out there.

03/06/2024

Good morning.

Just a quick update. Pretty foggy out this morning. This and the clouds will lift in the mid to late morning hours and we will be relatively sunny. Clouds will increase over night but should then clear out on Tuesday. Seasonable temps for the next couple days, so lower 80s at this point. Humidity will be higher too, you can just feel it sitting around.

Outside of this, still watching mid week for an active pattern change. What will this bring? Not too sure yet. Showers and storms look likely Wednesday-Friday, off and on, but nothing overly exciting. Wednesday would look to be our best chance, for a low end severe weather threat, at this point, it would be a damaging wind threat, and maybe some small hail. This is *NOT* concrete though, but just something we are watching. More updates as needed.

Until then though, have a great day! Stay safe out there!

02/06/2024

Good evening .

The rain for the overnight is knocking on our doorsteps right now. This should be working into the western portions of our area here shortly. This is a rather large area of wet weather that's headed this way. THis will very likely be with us all night. THis will push through and should be out of the area by late morning or early afternoon tomorrow.

After tomorrow, all signs still point to an active week. Looks like the middle of the week again. Still watching mid week for a very small, at this point, chance for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the entire midwest and great lakes regions for middle of the week, but probabilities at this point as still too low as of right now. Outside of that just your typical summer time showers and storms popping up.

So again, be prepared for a light to moderate rain tonight. Should be pretty steady and remain with us most of the night. It didn't get quite as humid as I thought it would today in advance of this area of rain, so the rain may not become quite so heavy. Regardless, varying rainfall amounts and varying rainfall intensities are extremely likely.

Stay tuned for further updates. I don't think anymore will be necessary tonight, or tomorrow. Monday we will be able to get a better feel for the middle of the week. Stay dry out there tonight and stay safe. Have a great night everybody!

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01/06/2024

Good morning everybody!

Got plenty of moisture out way to our west, I’m talking west of Illinois. That is slowly making its way towards us, however, I do believe we get through today dry with mostly sunny skies. Clouds will be on the increase tonight and we get later in the day though. Rain chances increase significantly for the over night period and through most of the first half of the day Sunday.

With that today, we will notice an increase in humidity. Won’t be anything crazy but comparatively speaking to the last couple days, we will notice it. We won’t be overly warm today, low 80s should be on tap today, but any increase in humidity will be noticeable.

Outside of that looks like that’s about it. Active weather pattern forthcoming next week and there’s a small possibility for severe weather mid week, nothing is concrete but the very small possibility is there. We will be keeping an eye on that.

Until another update is needed, have a great day! Stay safe out there!

30/05/2024

Good morning!

What you see is what you get and as an added bonus today, the clouds should stay away today. What a great day! It’ll be cooler than average today, but once we knock this morning chill out of the air, it’ll be warmer feeling today. We are headed towards the upper 60s today, if you’re in the southern part of our area, you may see 70 or slightly better.

More of the same tonight and into tomorrow. Area wide we will see the 70s tomorrow but that’s about as warm as we will get, again, below average for this time of year.

Still watching this weekend, timing seems to be off a bit and not solid at this point. Nothing is expected to get out of hand though at this point. So we’re watching that, otherwise all will be quiet at this point.

We’re gonna be rather quiet the rest of today and likely tomorrow, we will be back with more when we get into a better time frame for this weekend. Until then, have a great day, enjoy the cooler weather and sunshine! Stay safe out there!

29/05/2024

Good evening!

Another quick update. Skies are beginning to clear, radar shows a little activity coming off the lake, so we won’t rule out a quick isolated pop up shower or maybe even a small, quick thunderstorm. It shouldn’t be anything crazy, that line of showers and storms really started to break up this afternoon and move on outta here.

Clearing skies will drop us alllllll the way down into the 40s tonight. Exactly where in the 40s will ultimately be exactly where you are in the area. Inland an away from the lake, I wouldn’t be shocked if you see lower 40s, closer to the lake upper 40s, maybe not even get out of the 50s. But regardless, clearing skies now, should stay clear and about 99% of the area should stay dry now. Beautiful, albeit cooler than normal, days on tap to finish out your short work week. We will likely only get to the upper 60s tomorrow, but sunny skies will be with us! Friday, more of the same. Shouldn’t be any major issues to close out our first “unofficial week” of summer.

Watching this weekend for additional rain chances. More on that as we get closer, may even bring you a live weather forecast on location on Friday! Should be fun! Stay tuned for that.

Until then though, enjoy the weather! Stay safe out there everybody! And have a grrrrrreat couple days!

29/05/2024

Good morning everybody.

Just a quick update here. Basically rainy conditions across much of the area today, maybe some imbedded thunder possible as well. Rainfall rates will vary at times, with heavy rain possible. This line of showers/storms really isn’t moving and has parked itself over us. Keep an eye out for ponding on the roads and creeks and streams rising to the top of their banks. We should mostly stay out of flooding issues, but low lying areas will see a rise in water levels.

It has been reported to the National Weather Service in Cleveland that funnel clouds have been reported. This is important to note *these are cold air funnels*. These most of the time do not reach the ground. So if you see them, do not fear, they are scary looking but they won’t be hazardous. That said, if you see debris on the ground being flown around, that’s when you need to take shelter. This is no severe weather threat, let alone a tornado threat, but these cold air funnels will be around today.

Stay tuned for further updates. But until then, stay dry, stay warm and stay safe! Have a great day!

28/05/2024

Good afternoon everybody!

Clouds are increasing as the late afternoon rolls into the early evening hours today. Scattered about showers and maybe some thunder is out there too, at this point if you get caught under one, consider yourself lucky. That should change over night tonight though. Otherwise, nothing major coming our way.

Showers and storms are expected to gain coverage as we roll on through the evening and into the over night. Steady rain is expected through all this, but nothing crazy as far as amounts and such. Probably up to .5-.75” of rain, and that’s with the possibility of thunderstorms, that will produce heavier rain. Otherwise a nice, steady rain, which is what we need at this point to keep up with rainfall averages and such, even though at this point we are likely above average. Gotta get it when we can, or we will be begging for it later.

We should dry out after tomorrow morning, clouds will stick around but the steady stuff should be outta here by mid morning. Looking at temps to continue to be below average, with temps continuing to be in the upper 60s to low 70s for the remainder of this short work week. Otherwise, pretty quiet around the area, just the way we like it.

More active weather (non severe storms) are headed our way for the weekend, but more on that as we get closer. Stay tuned for any needed updates on the rain/storms tonight and tomorrow morning, otherwise have a great evening. Stay safe out there!

27/05/2024

Good morning everybody and happy Memorial Day!

At this point, what you see is what we are going to get. Our minimal storm threat for the day was first thing this morning, and I know at the house in Collins, we had some extremely heavy rain about 6:30 or so this morning. Outside of this, no issues should arise the rest of today.

Out on the lake, because again, we realize there are a lot of people likely up that way, there is, again, a small craft advisory, a beach hazards statement and a low water advisory on the western part of the lake. These will run for a majority of the day, and through tomorrow even. Again, it is not recommended that you go swimming in the lake today, as rip currents will be very common. Today may be a good beach day to just go up and enjoy the views of the lake and bay, but not a good swim day.

Again, we will be watching but truly today should be quiet. Looks like another round of shower/storm activity will be possible tomorrow, but as of now, no severe weather is anticipated. Please be safe if you're out and about today! Have a great day!

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26/05/2024

Hey there everybody!

We are extremely happy to give you guys the all clear for severe weather. The threat is now over.

The SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES will remain active though, probably until 8pm when Huron, Richland and Seneca counties are allowed to expire. The feeling we have is that Lorain and Ashland counties will be close behind too.

We have an opportunity over night for another round of rain/thunder but the severe threat is pretty much non existent now that this has come through. Training storms though are certainly going to be an issue should we see more rain tonight, so be prepared for some localized flooding should this occur. Turn around, don’t drown!

We will be back with more if needed, but until then, thank you for sticking with us! Have a great night and stay safe out there!

26/05/2024

7:19pm Update:

The *Tornado Warning* for Erie and Lorain Counties has been allowed to expire.

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26/05/2024

Another quick update:

The *Severe Thunderstorm Warning* for Sandusky and Ottawa Counties has been canceled.

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26/05/2024

7:05pm Update

The National Weather Service has now issued a *Tornado Warning* for Northeast Erie and Northwest Lorain Counties until 7:15pm EDT.

Radar has indicated rotation just off shore over Lake Erie that has just spun up moving north. While this is moving off shore, please be safe and take cover for the time being.

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26/05/2024

6:45pm Update:

Looks like Seneca County has been dropped off of the *Severe Thunderstorm Warning* with only Sandusky and Ottawa Counties being storm warned currently for our coverage area. That warning remains still until 7:15 EDT.

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26/05/2024

6:30pm Update:

The *Tornado Warning* has been allowed to expire. We can still expect some potentially heavy rain and wind gusts, but the tornado threat for Huron County at this time has ended.

Seneca, Sandusky, and Ottawa Counties do remain under a *Severe Thunderstorm Warning* until 7:15pm EDT, and we're continuing to monitor otherwise.

Thanks for hanging with us today, and continue to be safe!

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26/05/2024

6:25 Update:

The southeastern winds have REALLY started pushing this storm to it's left, in a counter-clockwise movement. As such, the National Weather Service has now issued a *Severe Thunderstorm Warning* for Seneca, Sandusky, Ottawa Counties until 7:15pm EDT.

The *Tornado Warning* for Huron County continues until 6:30pm for the time being, Richland County has been dropped off and given the all clear.

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26/05/2024

6:18pm Update:

The NWS has started trimming back the box for the tornado warning, dropping the New London area off of the warning specifically. That being said, the Tornado Warning remains in affect for Huron County until 6:30pm EDT. The storm has been shifting to more of a northern track overall, getting to the Willard area soon, and Norwalk around 6:30 expectedly. Rotation continues to be pretty weak, but still there on radar at this time.

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26/05/2024

Hello everyone.

Keeping an eye on the tornado warned storm for Huron and Richland Counties. Radar does appear to show some rotation just south of Greenwich, heading northeast still at this time, but not very organized.

The threat is still there for tornado spin-ups, heading into the eastern part of Huron County, thus the warning being issued. We're continuing to monitor and will keep you updated as more becomes available!

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26/05/2024

Richland Ashland and Huron counties are under a *TORNADO WARNING* until **6:30pm EDT**.

Mansfield and Shelby are in the path of this storm, should be over head now.

Plymouth around 6pm and Norwalk at 6:20pm.

Take shelter immediately.

26/05/2024

Hey guys!

Lots of updates but that’s okay. Best to over communicate here.

Watching this line of storms this afternoon. It is starting to break apart rather quickly, at least the part that will affect our area. There’s still a really good chance for some rain, and thunder over the area, the severe weather threat remains as well. But as the storms head this way, radar returns do seem to be showing weakening storms. I really think the cloud cover from earlier just have really inhibited the potential for these storms to grow.

That said the SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES remain in effect… Huron, Richland and Seneca counties, until **8pm EDT** this evening, and Ashland and Lorain counties until **10pm EDT this evening**. Conditions still remain favorable for severe weather, gusty winds will be our main threat, as this line continues to push this way. I would say the worst of the line, or what’s left of it will be here between 5:30-7 depending on where you are in the area.

Stay tuned. We will bring you further updates as necessary.

26/05/2024

Hello everybody!

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a *SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH* for the following counties in our area: Ashland and Lorain counties, until **10pm EDT this evening**.

Watching these storms still, pushing southwest to northeast across Ohio. Nothing seems overly out of control, there was one tornado warning on the north side of Dayton earlier, it has since expired and I don’t even think the storm is severe warned. At the very least I would expect gusty winds and possible small hail when they arrive.

There are a few pop up showers and storms to the north of the line we are watching. This is what we were concerned about “becoming outflow dominant”. This will happen sometimes and the winds will rush out ahead of the storms and head to where it is a little less stable. We aren’t saying they will weaken by the time they get here but that’s something to watch as well. The area is in need of rain, and a good thunderstorm (without hail and wind) will help us tremendously.

Huron, Richland and Seneca counties still have their SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH in effect until **8pm EDT this evening**. Stay tuned for further updates. If you know anybody out and about festival hopping, you may want to let them know that we have these storms coming.