Our World

05/02/2025

GULF STATES/SYRIA: On December 8, 2024, armed militias toppled the brutal dictatorship of the Assad family, ending a nearly fourteen-year civil war in Syria. Back in March 2011, pro-democracy protests erupted in the city of Daraa. The regime of Bashar al-Assad deployed violent means to quell the dissent, a strategy that ultimately escalated the conflict as armed clashes spread throughout the country. As Syria fractured into different embattled areas, a constellation of rebel militias and groups emerged (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have long opposed regime change. But they’re switching course with Syria, where they’re embracing new dynamics and power realities.

05/02/2025

CANADA/USA: Canadians were shocked by the announcement at the weekend that the United States would impose a 25 per cent tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, just as they were astonished by Donald Trump’s earlier pledge to use ‘economic force’ to absorb Canada into the US. Trump’s last-minute decision to delay the implementation of these tariffs for 30 days brought a measure of relief. To win this reprieve, Canada expanded its existing plans to strengthen security at its own border and to combat the trade in fentanyl and money laundering. (Chatham House).

Canada will work hard to resolve the dispute permanently – but the continuing tariffs threat will create pressure to reduce reliance on US trade.

05/02/2025

LEBANON: For Hezbollah, these are trying times. And as is usually the case, Hezbollah’s loss is Lebanon’s gain. In fact, the group’s deterioration is giving Lebanese officials a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reassert their presence and restore their failed state. At least some of Lebanon’s leaders seem ready to take advantage. Together, President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam could usher in a new era for their country and its long-suffering residents. Yet Hezbollah and its allies still control 53 seats in the 128-member parliament, enough to sway important decisions (Washington Institute for Near East Policy).

Weakening Hezbollah permanently will be difficult, but for once the goal is attainable—if Beirut has the courage to keep the group out of Lebanon’s coffers and make the army do its job.

05/02/2025

RUSSIA/USA: President Donald Trump’s inauguration and promises to end the Ukraine war have naturally trained the spotlight back on the three-year conflict. But even if a negotiated end to the war is sought, Russia has several other burgeoning security and political issues that a new US administration may have to contend with. Putin’s behaviour and key events around Trump’s inauguration threw these considerations into sharp relief (Royal United Services Institute).

Putin’s actions on Trump’s inauguration day highlighted Russia's growing security and political concerns, from the Middle East to China and Belarus, with implications for Europe’s future.

05/02/2025

GEORGIA: On January 29, the Republic of Georgia ceased participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) after the latter demanded new parliamentary elections and the release of political prisoners.
Tbilisi’s exit from PACE threatens its eligibility for EU candidacy. The move signals a shift from pro-European policies, jeopardizing democratic reforms, straining relations with key Western institutions, and challenging the ruling Georgian Dream party’s legitimacy (Jamestown Foundation). (Link: ▶️
https://jamestown.org/program/georgia-leaves-parliamentary-assembly-of-the-council-of-europe/.)

05/02/2025

USA: There is no shortage of well-reasoned, -researched, and -written pieces spelling out how misguided the Trump administration’s threatened but ultimately delayed application of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as its imposed tariffs on China are. They will be economically costly, raise prices for consumers and producers, and lower growth. If the past is prologue, any revenue earned will be offset by bailouts to industries harmed by retaliation. (Center for Strategic & International Studies).

In a new commentary from the Economics Program and Scholl Chair, Philip Luck explains how the recent use of IEEPA to threaten tariffs against Mexico and Canada is deleterious to every requirement for an effective economic statecraft policy.

05/02/2025

The fall of Goma to M23 rebels has sent shock waves through the region and risks triggering a wider regional war. The region may be witnessing the start of a campaign aimed at achieving a larger set of military objectives and, potentially building new alliances.

https://buff.ly/4jDRO5x

Photo: AFP

04/02/2025

USA: On day one, the administration precipitously suspended new obligations and disbursement of foreign assistance. A few days later it summarily dismissed the senior career leadership and then thousands of mid-level staff from USAID, essentially preventing the agency from carrying out its legislative mandated responsibilities. These decisions impact the livelihoods of thousands of Americans who manage our critical foreign assistance programs and tens of thousands of citizens in developing countries who either implement or are the beneficiaries of U.S. assistance—in many situations, depriving individuals of lifesaving medical care (Brookings Institute).

George Ingram explains how efforts to merge USAID into the State Department threaten its independence and U.S. strategic interests.

04/02/2025

TRANATLANTIC ALLIANCE: While Europe and the United States made considerable progress in improving their coordination on China policy during the Biden administration, “moving in the right direction” is no longer enough. The stakes for the transatlantic allies in the next few years are even higher, as they face deepening alignment among an axis of adversaries, heightened risk of conflict over Taiwan, and a second China shock that poses profound threats to their industries (German Marshall Fund).

The stakes for the transatlantic allies in the next few years are even higher, as they face deepening alignment among an axis of adversaries, heightened risk of conflict over Taiwan, and a second China shock that poses profound threats to their industries. The stakes for the transatlantic allies in....

04/02/2025

MISSILE DEFENSE: Since Hamas launched its surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, missile defense has been a critical component of the conflict in the Middle East. Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense batteries have intercepted rockets from Gaza and Lebanon. The Arrow-3 system destroyed, for the first time, a missile coming from Yemen in November 2023. And twice, the United States coordinated the response among Israel, European, and Arab partners to counter barrages of Iran’s missiles and drones. In retrospect, this conflict will prove to be as significant for missile defense progress as the Gulf War of 1991, which marked the first use of the US Patriot batteries in actual combat, where they were employed against Iraq’s Scud missiles (Atlantic Council).

The Gaza War serves as a cautionary tale about what missile defense can achieve, what it should achieve, and where it falls short.

04/02/2025

GLOBAL SOUTH: Saudi Arabia, armed with the immense capital of its Public Investment Fund and driven by its Vision 2030 strategy to pivot beyond oil, is uniquely positioned to challenge China in the cobalt supply chain. Unlike Beijing, Riyadh does not have a reputation for extractive economic practices or cutting corners. This makes Saudi Arabia an attractive partner for the DRC as the embattled African nation looks to reduce its dependence on China (Hudson Institute).

This monthly report by Hudson’s Zineb Riboua explores President Xi Jinping’s strategic push to broaden the People’s Republic of China’s influence across the Middle East and Africa. Click here to subscribe. Saudi Arabia Threatens China’s Congo Stranglehold

04/02/2025

ARGENTINA: This week, Argentine President Javier Milei vowed to remove the concept of “femicide” from the country’s penal code. Milei has argued that femicide, which is defined as “a crime of murder perpetrated by a man against a woman in the context of gender violence” and is punishable with a life sentence, promotes the idea that “...the life of a woman is worth more than that of a man.” Femicide is a serious problem in Argentina (Council on Foreign Relations).

Welcome to “Women Around the World: This Week,” a series that highlights noteworthy news related to women and U.S. foreign policy. This week’s post covers January 25 to January 31.

04/02/2025

DAVOS: Bring leading public figures, top businesspeople, civil society leaders, high-flying academics, and even a world-class footballer together in an Alpine ski resort and what do you get? Not the makings of a terrible joke but as this year’s Annual Meeting has revealed, constructive optimism and some tangible impact (World Economic Forum).

The World Economic Forum is involved in many initiatives, some of which are launched at Davos. Not all are what you'd expect, as these three projects reveal.

04/02/2025

CANADA/USA. In our first article on Canada-USA relations, titled, “The Deal: Making America Respect Canada Again (MARCA)”, we examined this bilateral relationship through its functional and interest-based lenses, making the case that the relationship, while at times stressful, endured and brought significant prosperity to both countries, while deepening the bilateral relationship and avoiding violent conflict between them. We argued that it is in their mutual interest to continue embracing a ‘functional approach’ to make things work even better for both (Conference of Defence Associations Institute).

In our first article on Canada-USA relations, titled, “The Deal: Making America Respect Canada Again (MARCA)”, we examined this bilateral relationship through its functional and interest-based lenses, making the case that the relationship, while at times stressful, endured and brought significan...

04/02/2025

USA: US President Donald Trump speaks often of his love of tariffs. For dealmakers, such as himself, the red-hot US market provides a useful economic weapon that replaces lethal military threats. Rather than providing allies with preferential access to that market, he exploits their dependency on it to extract concessions, exert his will, and deliver the results he wants (German Marshall Fund).

Breadcrumb Home Press A Risky Trade Insights A Risky Trade February 04, 2025 by Penny Naas 3 min read Share Trade, Economics, and Business Transatlantic Relations United States Photo credit: Andrew Leyden / Shutterstock.com Print Article US President Donald Trump speaks often of his love of tariffs....

04/02/2025

USA: “Tariff Man” has returned. US President Donald Trump signed executive orders on Saturday to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a 10 percent tariff on China, declaring a national emergency due to illegal migration and drugs. The tariffs, which include a carve-out of a lower 10 percent levy on Canadian energy, carry major implications for the economy, diplomacy, and geopolitics. Our experts explain it all below (Atlantic Council).

Our experts explain the economic and geopolitical implications of the US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China.

01/02/2025

INDIA: Needless to say, India’s reputation as “the world’s largest democracy” has taken a hit under the leadership of its pseudo-strongman Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Having overseen the persecution of religious minorities, incinerated press freedom and sanctioned extrajudicial assassination plots in Canada and the US, the onus is now on Modi to restore goodwill with the West. Severing ties with an increasingly lawless Belarus would send a clear signal that New Delhi has not gone totally rogue while causing minimal blowback or disruption to the Indian economy (New Eastern Europe).

In addition to being bought and paid for by the Kremlin, the embattled Belarusian dictator is becoming dangerously beholden to China

01/02/2025

DEEPSEEK: On Monday, the Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) application, DeepSeek, surpassed ChatGPT in downloads and was ranked number one in iPhone app stores in Australia, Canada, China, Singapore, the United States, and the United Kingdom. It dealt a heavy blow to the stocks of US chip makers and other companies related to AI development. DeepSeek claims to have achieved a chatbot model that rivals AI leaders, such as OpenAI and Meta, with a fraction of the financing and without full access to advanced semiconductor chips from the United States (Atlantic Council).

Understanding how Deepseek emerged from China’s innovation landscape can better equip the US to confront China’s ambitions for global technology leadership.