02/01/2025
When Donald Trump and the Republicans swept control of Washington, the markets took it as a clear signal that 2017’s steep tax cuts would be extended before they sunset at the end of 2025.
That would be an unbridled boon for wealthy New Yorkers who likely would have faced higher tax bills in a Harris administration. The corporate tax rate, cut to 21% in 2017, would have risen closer to its former 35% level. Earnings from partnerships, such as law firms or private equity shops, would have been taxed at higher rates, too.
The expected extension would put more money into the pockets of wealthy New Yorkers. Fully 10% of New York households earn $300,000 a year or more, well above the 6% share of households that earn that much across the U.S., said Barbara Denham, senior economist at Oxford Economics.
That suggests spending on apartments, restaurants, and luxury goods should grow considerably.
In addition to extending the tax cuts, Trump has promised to expand them to exempt income taxes on tips and overtime pay — changes that would also boost the city’s lower-wage workers. More than 320,000 New Yorkers, 7% of the city’s workforce, are employed in food service or drinking establishments.
Tax cuts were one of the few policy changes the White House and Republican-controlled Congress managed to agree on in the first half of Trump’s first term. But getting a new tax package through Congress this time will be no slam dunk.
“There’s no sign the Republican Senate and razor-thin Republican House majority are anywhere close to agreeing amongst themselves, not to mention the incoming administration,” wrote Sarah Bianchi, deputy U.S. Trade Representative from 2021 to 2024 who is now an analyst at securities firm Evercore ISI.
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One thing Republicans can surely agree on is tax-cut extensions.