Erie Weather Now

10/12/2023

8:45 PM | Moderate to locally heavy rain showers are currently moving through the region. Rainfall amounts of up to a half inch is possible tonight. A rumble or two of thunder is also possible.

09/12/2023

A tornado just narrowly missed downtown Nashville,
TN this evening.

05/12/2023

🌫️ ❄️ It’s snowy and foggy out there, especially along I-90 and I-86 in eastern Erie County. Take an easy out there!

03/12/2023

4:16 PM | An additional round of storms are currently approaching our area and have special weather statements for a quarter-inch size hail along with up to 50 MPH. Thunder and lightning is occurring with these storms.

03/12/2023

This afternoon, a chance of thunderstorms exist across Northwest Pennsylvania and Southwest New York. Small hail and gusty winds are possible, especially in the darker green base map region. The SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather, and mentions that funnel clouds are possible but the overall risk for severe weather remains low.

01/12/2023

While clouds remained in our favor for the first portion of the night, the Aurora is not quite the intensity that we need to be able to view it here in Erie. This does not mean that the event is over, additional CME's are expected to hit over the next 24 hours - even perhaps tonight. The main concern is clouds, as they will begin to build later tonight.

This forecast from the SWPC highlights areas near Georgian Bay in Ontario Canada that has a high chance of seeing the Aurora.

30/11/2023

We are still waiting for the arrival of the CME, however things are beginning to turn in the positive direction. The Bz (the orientation of the the solar wind's magnetic orientation in the up/down direction) has began to trend down. The more negative the Bz goes, the better. Currently, this is as close as we can get to a "forecast" as these conditions are currently taking 60 minutes to reach Earth's magnetic field.

This does not mean conditions are present yet. We still have to continue to watch the data and view trends. As for clouds, we are relatively cloud free at the moment, with some clouds on the horizon (north).

30/11/2023

Overall, today should be a nice day with temperatures reaching the upper 40's. However, precipitation will form as rain tomorrow bringing up to 0.5-1" of rain to Erie County (and surrounding counties). At this time, it appears that the highest rain totals will be relatively along the lake shore.

30/11/2023

In case you missed it or have not seen it yet, there is a likely chance to view the northern lights here in Erie! Recently, the sun has released 3-4 Coronal Mass Ejections which have been speeding through space. They will soon interact with Earth's magnetic field which will produce the visual display of the Aurora which is the only way that most people actually experience space weather.

The number one issue for tonight is clouds. I'll post an update this late afternoon regarding our weather in terms of clouds and if we have a chance of seeing the northern lights due to Earth's Weather.

30/11/2023

Here is the most recent storm total accumulations map including the snow that moved through overnight. Data provided via NOHRSC, which collects snowfall observations by utilizing numerous observing networks, including ASOS, COOP, CoCoRaHS, FAA, NWS spotters, and others.

29/11/2023

Mount Pleasant of Edinboro is looking GREAT under a fresh coat of powder! 😍❄️

28/11/2023

Multiple weather related accidents south of Route 6N on I-79 between Edinboro and Cambridge Springs. Whiteout conditions and slick roads have created treacherous conditions. Additional snow and whiteout conditions possible through tomorrow morning.

Reports via Waze

28/11/2023

Update: Reopen.

⚠️ Heads up... I-90 WESTBOUND is at a complete standstill from the Sterrettania Road Exit to the Route 98 (Fairview Exit). Overnight, multiple accidents took place in the westbound lanes of I-90 between Fairview and Girard. Traffic was detoured off of I-90... until about 2:30 AM when two tractor trailers managed to get stuck on the off ramp.

28/11/2023

Update: Westbound is moving again!
Second Update: This was a secondary incident and not related to the one that occurred in Girard.

I-90 Westbound is at a complete standstill due to congestion at the North East Rest Area. PSP just arrived on scene and are moving people along.

📸 511PA

28/11/2023

TONS of thundersnow in Arkwright, NY!

27/11/2023

⚠️ Expecting major winter storm impacts including travel related issues over the next 36 hours. Thundersnow likely overnight tonight with heavy snowfall rates.

27/11/2023

This morning, road conditions reportedly lead to a motor vehicle accident resulting in the vehicle ending up on its side. Remember, a little snow and ice on the roadways can be a hidden danger - take it slow!

27/11/2023

⚠️ Use caution before this mornings commute - I-90 (near I-79) is mostly bare at the moment but as you can see slush is accumulating on the shoulders. A developing snow band will continue to produce snow showers, perhaps heavy at times, during this mornings commute.

📷 Check 511PA.com travel cams before heading out the door so you know what to expect and take different routes if needed.

Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT)

27/11/2023

4:50 AM - A lake effect snow band is in the process of developing over Lake Erie and pushing onshore. Precipitation type along the shoreline has been primarily rain as upper levels of the atmosphere are still a bit warm. However, throughout the day, upper air support will push in and drop temperatures which will allow for snow to become the dominate precipitation type. Looking towards this afternoon, it is possible that the band may weaken for a short time, but this should be brief. Precipitation today should be limited to 1-4", primarily in the upper elevations of Erie County.

Looking towards tonight, things will begin to deteriorate rather quickly. Instability is expected to increase, thundersnow is possible, which will accompany a band capable of producing 1-2"/hr snowfall rates. Travel will be impacted late tonight into first thing on Tuesday. More details later...

26/11/2023

⚡❄️ JUST IN: The Storm Prediction Center, based in Norman, OK, has identified that areas down wind of each of the great lakes have a chance of seeing thundersnow. This being said, forecast soundings depict a thermodynamic environment suitable for mixed-phase updrafts capable of charge separation in the relatively deeper/longer-lived lake-effect bands.

26/11/2023

⚠️➡️🚨 Lake Effect Snow Warning Issued
A Lake Effect Snow Warning has been issued for portions of Pennsylvania and New York for lake effect snow. The warning for Erie County, issued by the National Weather Service in Cleveland, is projecting 10-18 inches of snow with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, accompanied by wind gusts as high as 35 miles per hour. The anticipated time frame for this weather event is late Sunday night through Wednesday morning.

According to the National Weather Service in Cleveland, many locations will see storm totals in the 12 to 18 inch range, which along with heavy snowfall rates and blowing/drifting snow will make travel very difficult Monday night and Tuesday.

The most significant duration of the event will occur Monday night through the day on Tuesday. This is when a passing shortwave will increase available moisture and lift, which will crease instability and raise equilibrium levels over the lake. These are all contributing factors that favor snow growth and will allow lake effect to become more organized overnight.

For portions of Northeastern Ohio and Pennsylvania, winter storm watches remain in effect. These will either be changed into Winter Weather Advisories or Lake Effect Snow Warnings down the road as we get closer to the event.

25/11/2023

** OUTDATED: see most recent post for an update **

🚨 Winter Storm Watch Issued 🚨
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of Pennsylvania, New York, and Ohio for lake effect snow. The forecast for Northwestern Pennsylvania is projecting 6-12 inches of snow with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, accompanied by wind gusts as high as 35 miles per hour. The anticipated time frame for this weather event is late Sunday night through late Tuesday night.

Additional graphics will be available soon.

25/11/2023

❄️❄️ SNOW Update: The National Weather Service in Cleveland has released their latest predictions for the upcoming snow through 7 AM on Tuesday. Additional snow is expected on Tuesday. However, at this time, the wind direction and band placement remain fluid.

24/11/2023

⚠️❄️Pattern Change Incoming: Enjoy the dry and relatively cooler weather over the next couple of days. On Sunday, a low pressure system will move through the area bringing up to a half inch of rain. On Monday, conditions take a drastic change and the confidence in lake effect snow is increasing. Lake effect snow is expected to continue through Tuesday evening, but the exact placement of the bands will depend on wind direction and the synoptic features that will drive the lake effect.

Snow accumulations and additional information will be available later on.

20/11/2023

🐟 The fish are active at Avonia Beach in the PA Fish and Boat Commission nursery waters! Such a cool sight to see as steelhead swim a short distance upstream. The waters are protected and are unfishable.

20/11/2023

🌧️ 💨 Tuesday will be a rather wet and soggy day with some areas receiving up to a half-inch of rain. Additionally, strong wind gusts occur as a low-level jet strengthens as it passes through the region. At this time, the National Weather Service in Cleveland says wind gusts may reach 45 miles per hour, however recent model trends have been pushing wind gusts higher along the immediate lake shore locations.

19/11/2023

Thanksgiving Weather Update: Thanksgiving is looking to be rather nice, with temperatures in the upper 40's. If you recall, just under a week ago, consensus was growing in a possibility of having a white Thanksgiving - and I kept messaging to a minimum regarding possible setups and accumulation amounts. At the early stage, it is always about identifying trends from run to run and from model to model and seeing possibilities that exist collectively.

It was evident that early on, a lake effect event was looking increasingly likely all the way up through Friday. Noting, that both the National Weather Service in Cleveland and in Buffalo were beginning to mention the possibilities of "significant accumulations" being possible for and around Thanksgiving. However, by Friday evenings, the GFS began to depict a grim picture for snow lovers: an unphased jet with zonal flow across the region. Within an additional day, the ECMWF and GDPS began to come in line with the GFS.

What is the moral of the story? As much as anyone looks at weather data - large changes are possible from model run to model run, especially this early in the season. During season changes, there is a lot more variation in possibilities until we become within the range of 3-5 days out. This is the exact reason why your most trusted weather app can vary significantly from day to day for any type of forecast over 5 days out.

Again, I apologize if you had you're hopes up for snow. Unfortunately we all make mistakes, and I have the common decency to provide an update with a reasoning.

17/11/2023

Due to the very low relative humidity over the past couple of days, multiple brush fires have been reported across the region. Here's a fire that broke out in Girard Township this evening.

14/11/2023

🦃 ❄️ Who had a white Thanksgiving on their 2023 Bingo Card? The probabilities of having a white Thanksgiving continue to increase, especially for the southern portions of Erie County. More information to come as we continue to get closer to turkey day.

As a reminder, this is an outlook based upon possibilities from multiple data sources.

13/11/2023

Wow - this is impressive! A lake freighter recently trained with the USCG to perform training such as hoists while the freighter was moving at about 15 miles per hour!

13/11/2023

A very fine hint of the northern lights near the horizon looking north. As soon as I got to the lake, some reds up high but very quickly faded. All of these images were shot with an exposure, and the lights were not visible without the use of a time exposure.

12/11/2023

Awesome photo featuring the northern lights last night near Herman, MN. Cloud cover in addition to a lackluster solar-storm prevented us from being able to view the phenomena here in Erie.

The outside Herman, MN in western MN last night. While it was weaker and much later than forecasted it did show itself for a short time around 2:00 am before clouds shut down my show. It was still wonderful to have see them for the first time. Thanks to Shelbydiamondstar Photography for telling me to wait until they showed. The Weather Channel

12/11/2023

This week's forecast: 🌥️➡️☀️➡️🌧️
Enjoy this week's weather, as it will be the some of the best weather for the foreseeable future. We will approach the upper 50's by Thursday (even perhaps hit 60 degrees on Thursday). Then, temperatures will begin to decline to around average temperatures for this time of the year. Rain is forecasted on Friday of this week followed by a partly cloudy weekend with temperatures in the upper 40's.

12/11/2023

Still waiting the arrival of the CME which will be responsible for the northern lights later tonight. Low clouds over Lake Erie are currently drifting south-east which will prevent us from seeing any northern lights until they clear (perhaps 2-3 hours). The start time of the northern lights is currently unknown but is expected anywhere from 10 PM - 4 AM (as long as modeling is correct on intensity and speed of the CME). Near southern Lake Huron, high clouds are moving west to east, but from Erie, they should not be visible.

11/11/2023

❄️ Absolutely insane! 72 inches of snow in just 19.5 hours in Alaska! I don’t know about you, but I’m jelly!

11/11/2023

Heads up! We have a chance of seeing the northern lights tomorrow evening. Most models are alluding to cloud cover (shocker) which would prohibit observing the northern lights here in Erie.

08/11/2023

Probabilities remain on the higher end for slightly above average temperatures from next Tuesday through the Wednesday just before thanksgiving.

08/11/2023

Incredible photos from Norway featuring the visual spectacle of the northern lights from the recent solar storm.

05/11/2023

❄️ The weather in Anchorage Alaska is looking mighty delightful!

05/11/2023

This morning across central Michigan! Auroras will be possible again tonight here, but unfortunately clouds will not be in our favor.

😍 The northern lights shone above Gladwin, MI around 5:30 AM today (11/5/23) in beautiful fall hues of red.

The aurora may arrive for an encore across most of Michigan after tonight as a geomagnetic storm is forecast by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Clouds are in the forecast, but take a look north anytime after sunset as the storm's intensity is modeled to peak after 10 PM ET.

📸 Pic courtesy of Adam Dillon.