Southwest Louisiana Extreme Weather

03/07/2024

Wednesday 1:30pm update...
The 1pm intermediate update from the NHC shows little changes to the overall forecast track and cone. Despite a few outliers, majority of the operational models are in quite good agreement on the North Mexico - Southern Texas landfall on Sunday. And that's been a consistency as well.
BERYL is slowly weakening and is down to Max sustained winds of 140mph. For whatever reason, this thing has held on to it's strength despite good shear. BERYL will be studied for many years to come as it defied the odds on all aspects right from the git go.
BERYL is tracking a long the Southern Coast of Jamaica right now which means the core is staying out over open water and the strongest part of the Cyclone is raking the island. The question remains now is what affect if any Jamaica will have in disrupting BERYL to weaken it further. At this point, I'd say very little since the core is offshore. We'll have to rely on strengthening wind shear to do all the work.
Southwest Louisiana, you're not completely off the table right now but the odds are very low it turns for y'all. Consensus remains on a Mexico/Texas landfall. But if you've procrastinated then now is the time to get your initial prep done. That doesn't mean go clean out the store shelves just yet.
Friday afternoon/evening we'll have a more solid idea if BERYL will once again defy the odds and take aim at the Texas/Louisiana border region or if she'll behave and go into Northern Mexico as currently forecast..
For now, Rule #9 holds...
-Joe.

02/07/2024

Good Monday evening,
Brand new 00z guidance is out on powerful CAT 4 . A lot of people have been posting graphics of the model ensembles without any context and creating a lot of fear.
While the latest primary hurricane models do put Texas and Louisiana in play, that's far from set in stone. I'm still sticking with a Mexico hit on Sunday evening at the earliest for the time being.
What we watch for now over the coming days, outside of what's actually happening in the atmosphere, are model trends. Do they keep Louisiana or the upper Texas coast in play or not.
We probably won't have a firm grasp of just where this thing actually does wind up until Thursday evening or Friday if trends follow a more Northerly track.
But one thing to keep in mind is that a weaker storm is going to track more Westerly where a stronger storm would track more Northerly and try to take advantage of any weakness along the ridge to its North.
Six days now I've been forecasting a Mexico hit and despite some outliers taking it North, the bulk of the models remain solid on a Mexico hit.
Rule #9 remains firmly in effect...
-Joe.

01/07/2024

Monday 3:00am Redeye Tropics update.. , , and soon to be .
The Tropics are on 🔥🔥Fire!
**Clarification** I mistated that BERYL was not a CAT III Major Hurricane. She was in fact a minimal CAT III, just not a CAT 4 like she was earlier on Sunday.

30/06/2024

Good Sunday afternoon,
5pm update on CAT III has no major changes. Southern Lesser Antillies are going to take the hit first then Jamaica on Wednesday as a CAT 2 storm. After that it's the Yucan's turn.
The problem after that is that the ensembles are starting to have a continuity of Texas and Louisiana in play. Those are long range outliers and confidence is still Low about either scenario right now. As I've always said, forecast's are always based on current data and as always, subject to change. At this point, odds still favor a Mexico hit and then the remnants turn North from there bringing serious Flash Flooding concerns.
ANY deviation North on it's eventual path after the Yucan could put Louisiana in the path of serious rainfall totals as well.
For now though, those are all what if scenarios and NO, it's NOT time to freak out.. Not yet... Once we hit Friday this week we'll have a much better idea of just where BERYL is going to wind up. So until then, Rule #9 stands!!!
-Joe.

30/06/2024

latest on Major Hurricane and more..

29/06/2024

Saturday afternoon Hurricane update.

28/06/2024

Credible sources came forward about the Lake Charles airport Land spout twister. It was in fact one. I stand corrected. Glad everyone over there is ok. Probably dropped a little 💩💩 mud though!! 😂

28/06/2024

I'll just say this about all the hoopla... If it wasn't ON THE GROUND it was NOT a Tornado or Land spout... Period... All the videos I've seen thus far are nothing but low level rotation. Funnel? Yea.. I'll buy that.. partially.. but I'll say it again.. if it's NOT on the ground it's neither a Tornado or Land spout... Period.. end of discussion. Nearly FOUR decade's in this business gives me the right to state the obvious... There wasn't even a CC drop on radar either.
With all the videos taken someone has to have gotten footage of it on the ground if it did indeed touch down right?
Low level updraft rotation is all I saw in every single video. If someone got footage of it actually on the ground, let's see it. Until then, my opinion stands.
-Joe

18/06/2024

Tuesday Noon update..

17/06/2024

Good Monday morning,
Nothing big expected to impact Louisiana for the rest of the month. Rainfall totals trending downwards as well. All of the major models shown on a series of disturbances crossing thru the Gulf of Mexico with no development expected, beyond what's down there in the Bay of Campeche region right now, which likely becomes ALBERTO later this week. Models, graphic attached, have it becoming a very minimal Tropical Storm at the most.
Indirect impacts from the Ridge of High pressure dominating the Southeast US and the system down there in the Bay of Campeche region will be pressure gradient winds to 30mph, scattered showers and Thunderstorms, minor nuisance coastal flooding from South/Southeasterly wind flow and that's about it.
Direct impacts will be in Mexico and Southeast Texas.
But as I've been saying, NO BIG HURRICANE Doomsday scenario's!!! The hypesters, a well known Hurricane chaser and a number of Meteorologist are all eating crow right now and all you're hearing from them are crickets and excuses. Shame on them. For you new folks, I'm not here doing this for the hype, clicks, attention, to get rich or to become a celebrity. It's never been about me. It's all about YOU and supplementing the National Weather Service to bring you the most factual information possible without the hype and hoopla.
IF, I hype something, it's for a damn good reason. It means confidence is well above 90% that we're gonna get nailed by some bad juju. Until then, we're fine.
Have a good Monday and use caution on the roads today as the expected Tropical downpours will once again drop torrential rainfall. Storm motion will be from East to West at 10-15mph so locations that get them could see anywhere from a quick 1/4" inch to One inch of rainfall in a short period of time making driving conditions hazardous.
-Joe.

15/06/2024

Saturday early afternoon update... GFS Model remains in flip flop mode while the EURO is having none of it. Rule #9!!!

13/06/2024

Thursday early afternoon Tropics update. GFS model in full flip flop mode but starting to become more consistent. Let's take a look.

11/06/2024

Tuesday Noon Tropics update.

10/06/2024

Monday Weather round up. A look locally and also at the tropics.

04/06/2024

Monday 510pm Tornado Warning!!

04/06/2024

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
**** Severe Thunderstorm Warning ****
* Locations impacted include... Lafayette, Opelousas, Crowley, Eunice, Jennings, Scott, Breaux Bridge, Rayne, Oakdale, Carencro, Ville Platte, Church Point, Bunkie, Mamou, Welsh, Lake Arthur, Kinder, Simmesport, Basile, and Oberlin.

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
344 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Lafayette Parish in south central Louisiana...
Eastern Jefferson Davis Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Evangeline Parish in central Louisiana...
Acadia Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Northwestern Vermilion Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Avoyelles Parish in central Louisiana...
Northwestern St. Martin Parish in south central Louisiana...
St. Landry Parish in central Louisiana...
Allen Parish in southwestern Louisiana...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 344 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Fort Adams to Ville Platte to near Reeves,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

04/06/2024

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
**** Severe Thunderstorm Watch **** Number 391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Louisiana
Southern Mississippi

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A squall line will continue to move east-southeast across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi through the afternoon and into the evening into a very moist and unstable airmass. The more intense portions of the squall line will be capable of strong to severe gusts (55-65 mph) and potential wind damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE: ACADIA, ALLEN, ASCENSION, AVOYELLES, BEAUREGARD, CONCORDIA, EAST BATON ROUGE, EAST FELICIANA, EVANGELINE, IBERIA, IBERVILLE, JEFFERSON DAVIS, LAFAYETTE, LIVINGSTON, POINTE COUPEE, RAPIDES, ST. HELENA, ST. LANDRY, ST. MARTIN, TANGIPAHOA, VERMILION, VERNON, WASHINGTON, WEST BATON ROUGE & WEST FELICIANA.

04/06/2024

Monday evening Severe Wx Update.. Once again... Here we go.

03/06/2024

Going to do a special Live over on the Tube at 3:00pm to discuss today's low end Severe weather threat... Subscribe to the channel over there and hit the bell icon and select ALL Notifications so you'll get instant notified when I go live over there...
C'Yall shortly!!
-Joe.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZHpBz4q-7_zj0kKv9xt7rA

02/06/2024

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
**** Flash Flood Warning ****
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Ragley, De Quincy and Oretta.

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
607 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
South Central Beauregard Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
North Central Calcasieu Parish in southwestern Louisiana...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 607 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

02/06/2024

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
**** Severe Thunderstorm Warning ****
* Locations impacted include...
De Quincy, Ragley, Oretta, and Buhler.

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
507 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
South central Beauregard Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
North central Calcasieu Parish in southwestern Louisiana...

* Until 600 PM CDT.

* At 507 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over De Quincy, and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

02/06/2024

Sunday Severe Wx Update....

02/06/2024

Round 2??... Impromptu live...

01/06/2024

Saturday afternoon Severe Wx update....

01/06/2024

01/06/2024

Saturday 2:00pm Update:
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Severe Thunderstorm Watch Eastward to now include Allen, Acadia, Jeff Davis & Vermillion parishes until 6:00pm.
* Primary threats include.. Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible. Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible.
Thunderstorm development has already initiated across the region, although No Warnings are active at this time.
Stay Weather Aware for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.
-Joe.

01/06/2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a:
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch * for portions of
Southwest Louisiana, Middle and Upper Texas Coastal Plain Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon across the Watch area. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of a risk for severe gusts and large hail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

31/05/2024

Thursday evening Severe Wx Update.. Here we Geauxx!!

31/05/2024

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
**** Severe Thunderstorm Warning ****
* Locations impacted include... Leesville, Rosepine, Anacoco, Toledo Bend Dam, Fort Johnson, Slagle, Burkeville, New Llano, Hornbeck, Lacamp, Farrsville, Fullerton, Hutton, Burr Ferry, Mayflower, Jamestown, Kurthwood, Stringtown, Cravens, and Simpson.

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
758 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Vernon Parish in west central Louisiana...
Northern Newton County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 900 PM CDT.

* At 758 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Zwolle to 10 miles east of Hemphill to near
Toledo Bend Dam to Harrisburg, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

31/05/2024

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
**** Severe Thunderstorm Watch **** Number 356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
715 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Louisiana
Southeast Texas

* Effective this Thursday evening from 715 PM until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over southeast Texas will track eastward into the watch area this evening. The strongest storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.