Econ World

10/04/2025

DETERMINANTS OF INDIAN FISCAL DEFICIT IN NARDL MODEL

BY DEBESH BHOWMIK

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS & MANAGEMENT RESEARCH,VOL-6(4),1-10,2025

https://doi.org/10.47363/JESMR/2025(6)289

Click to read full article.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1O3ar8zRcDrKAF3YDL_-ZRgNOMUttjoiF/view?usp=sharing

08/03/2025

https://view19.in/tapping-the-boundaries-health-and-well-being-of-sustainable-development/

Tapping the Boundaries: Health and Well-Being of Sustainable Development Edited by Prof(Dr)Sandeep Poddar and Prof(Dr)Waliza Ansar(Nova Science Publishers, New York,USA),pp ,433, 2024,Price-$230 BOOK REVIEW ----by Dr. Debesh Bhowmik The book consists of 18 articles written by eminent scholars around...

26/02/2025

Chapter 15:The Nexus between the value added in the service, revenue, international trade,and rate of unemployment in India.
By Debesh Bhowmik

01/02/2025

ARDL MODEL ON THE NEXUS BETWEEN INCOME INEQUALITY ,GDP GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDIA---DR.DEBESH BHOWMIK
Journal of Business Management, Commerce and Research,11(4),1-10, December,2024.

05/01/2025

NEW ARTICLE
THE NATURE OF GLOBAL INCOME INEQUALITY AND ITS DETERMINANTS....Debesh Bhowmik
BUSINESS ETHICS AND LEADERSHIP,VOL-8,NO-4,215-232,2024
https://doi.org/10.61093/bel.8(4).215-232.2024
Abstract: The paper examined the nature of global income inequality from 1980 to 2023 through linear and non-linear
trend models. It decomposed into cycles through the Hamilton regression filter model and the H.P. Filter model and also
framed a forecast model for 2050 using the ARIMA (1,1,1) model using data on the income share of the top 10% and
bottom 50% from the World Inequality Database. It was found that global income inequality is inversely U-shaped. The
ARIMA (1,1,1) model of global income inequality during 1980‒2023 is significant, convergent and stable, and the
forecast model for 2050 is stationary and convergent to equilibrium. During the cyclical path the income inequality and
growth are downward while the unemployment rate is upward in the period of global recession in 2008‒2009. Still,
income inequality and unemployment rate are upward, while growth is downward in the recession during Covid-2019‒
2020. The article also examined the cointegration and vector error correction analysis among global income inequality,
global unemployment rate, global GDP growth rate and global inflation rate, respectively during 1991‒2023, using data
from the World Bank Database and World Inequality Database by applying Johansen cointegration test (1988). It was
found that there is one significant cointegrating equation which implied that the variables are associated in the long run
where the cointegrating equation stated that income inequality is negatively related with unemployment rate and
positively related with inflation and growth rates where all are significant except inflation rate. There is also a short run causality from income inequality to the inflation rate. The cointegrating equation converges to equilibrium
insignificantly at the speed of adjustment of 1.21% per annum, with its trend coefficient being positive and insignificant.
The impulse response of income inequality to unemployment and growth rate is convergent, while the response to
inflation rate is divergent. The VECM is stable and nonstationary, showing autocorrelation and multivariate non-normal
problems. Target rate of inflation, tight monetary policy, progressive taxation and higher investment in small-scale
manufacturing sector and infrastructure might be effective for benefiting good long run association among them.
Keywords: cointegration, economic growth, income inequality, inflation rate, unemployment, vector error correction.
JEL Classification: C22, D63, E24, E31

04/12/2024

Econometric Analysis on Unemployment, Inequality and Economic Growth in India
Dr. Debesh Bhowmik
Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance 8(12) ,2024, Page no 386-396 |
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36348/sjef.2024.v08i12.001
Abstract
In this paper the author tried to find out the long run association between unemployment rate, GDP growth rate and income inequality in the post independent period in India from 1951 to 2023 by applying cointegration and vector error correction model. The paper found out that there is one cointegrating equation among the three variables where VECM implies that the change of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate is inversely related while the change of unemployment and the change of income inequality is positively related in the long run. The former is significant and the later is insignificant in case of cointegrating equation which is convergent towards equilibrium with a speed of adjustment of 2.4% per year. There is short run causality between unemployment rate, GDP growth rate and income inequality. The VECM is stable and non-stationary having autocorrelation and multivariate normality problems.

20/11/2024

Analysis of Nexus Between Unemployment and Recession in India
Author
Debesh Bhowmik
Vol. 8 No. 2 (2024): International Journal of Management and Human Sciences (IJMHS)
Lincoln University College Main Campus, Wisma Lincoln, 12-18, Jalan SS 6/12, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0293-1066
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31674/ijmhs.2024.v08i02.005
Abstract
The nexus between unemployment and recession in India highlights a critical economic relationship where downturns significantly impact job availability, deepening economic challenges and affecting the livelihoods of millions. In this study, the author reviewed the research on the nexus between unemployment rate and recessions in the US during 1948-2020 and in the UK during 1900-2023 and attempted to examine the cyclical relationship between unemployment rate and GDP growth during all recessions and economic crises from 1951 to 2023 in India. The paper explored that all the peaks of the unemployment rates are associated with troughs of the GDP growth rates in every recession in India, especially in 1957, 1965, 1966, 1972, 1979, and 2020, while in other economic crises in 1985-86, 1991, 2005-06, unemployment rates were either upswing or reached peak levels when GDP growth rates were either downswing or reached at troughs. There are marginal exceptions during cyclical fashions in association between them.
Keywords: Cyclical Trend, Cycle, Growth Rate, Recession, Unemployment Rate

17/11/2024

The article is published in the Edited book: BLOCK CHAIN AND CRYPTOCURRENCY-
(Edited by)-Asik Rahaman Jamadar, Murugesan Selvam, Biswaranjan Acharya. CRC Press,2024

chapter 8|16 pages

The Nature of Trends and Cycles of Ethereum
By Debesh Bhowmik

Abstract
The chapter examines the nature of long-run nonlinear trends of the closing price of Ethereum in terms of USD, from 2015m08 to 2023m05 using the econometric model of the Box and Jenkins’ (1976) methodology of ARIMA (p, d, q) and Hamilton (2018) decomposition. Additionally, the forecast behaviour for 2025m01 was computed with/without the Hamilton regression filter. The automatically selected ARIMA model of Ethereum price is convergent, and its forecast path for 2025m01 showed insignificance with seasonal fluctuations. However, its decomposition model is cyclical, cyclically trending, and seasonally fluctuated, with forecast behaviour that is convergent, stable and significant without seasonal variation.

14/10/2024

Nobel Laureates in Economics (Sveriges Riksbank Prize) 2024

22/09/2024

The book-“Conceptual Studies on the Vedas” written by Dr.Debesh Bhowmik is being released today (22-09-2024) at Sri Aurobindo Society, Payradanga, Nadia by the eminent persons such as Dr.Buddhabeb Mandal(Prof. Rishi Bankim Chandra College,), Dr.Rajashri Ghosh(Prof. Burdwan University), Dr.P.K.Biswas (Prof,Kanchrapara College), Author Debesh Bhowmik, Dr.Hrishikesh Bal (Prof.,Banipur BEd College) and Dr.Swapan Modak (Officer, Govt of WB Agriculture),Prem Singh Bisht (publisher) ,Kalyan Bhattacharjee (Secretary, Sri Aurobindo Society, Payradanga) respectively.

13/09/2024

New Article
World Income Inequality:Nature and Trends
by Dr.Debesh Bhowmik
Published in AAYAM--AKGIM JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT
VOL-14,NO-1,2024,7-18
Link for full paper
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1B4raoYme8FYuTvvPmXFxLeWa1AkbrAcc/view?usp=sharing

02/09/2024

Macro fundamentals of Bangladesh Economy
By Dr.Debesh Bhowmik
Read Full article by clicking the link below

By Dr. Debesh Bhowmik Discussion on Bangladesh became an important theme/issue now a days because of its political change. The small country-Bangladesh and its care taker or Interim government has been remarking on several issues both on economics, social and politics which are debatable and provoca...

29/08/2024

NEW ARTICLE
ANALYSIS ON ECONOMIC INEQUALITY IN INDIA----by---Debesh Bhowmik
Published in Advancement in Management and Technology,2024,5(1),1-23.
For full article
https://doi.org/10.46977/apjmt.2024.v05i01.001

18/08/2024

R**E VICTIMS IN INDIA
Dr.Debesh Bhowmik
World Population Review-2024 stated that globally 35% of women have been confronted with sexual harassment in which 40% seeks help, and 10% reach out to law enforcement. The report also reiterated that in USA, total number of r**es were recorded as 140776 in 2021 followed by 35640 in Uk,33918 in France,10410 in Germany,9314 in Sweden,2658 in Denmark,1388 in Japan and 757 in Switzerland respectively.
In India, every 16 minutes one r**e is occurred and every 3 hours one victim is killed or in otherwords,86 r**e cases have been incidentally occurred daily. For example, in 2019, total 32033 r**e cases were occurred in which 27093 cases belong to above 18 years of age of woman and 4940 cases belong to less than 18 years of age. Rajasthan holds the top position followed by Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Delhi and West Bengal respectively. In 2019, the number of r**e cases were 5997 in Rajasthan,3065 in UP,2485 in MP,2299 in Maharashtra,1253 in Delhi and 1069 in West Bengal. But, the conviction rate during 2018 to 2022 was only 27-28% where the gap of justice is highly questionable.
Lok Sabha report 2023 July revealed that in India in 2017,86001 cases of crimes against women were registered and only 11447 cases were convicted. On the other hand, in 2021,89200 cases were registered but only 8544 were convicted.
Per capita crime rate in UP stood highest in India amounting to 7.4 followed by Arunachal Pradesh ,5.8, Jharkhand 5.1, Delhi 5.0, Andhra Pradesh 3.6, respectively, according to Crime Rate Report of India 2024.
In the following figure the number of r**e cases in India from 2010 to 2022 have been recorded where the red line is the actual numbers of r**es which reached at the top in 2016(38947 r**e cases) and then started to decrease at 31516 cases of r**es in 2022, so that its estimated line (green line) became inverse U shaped. In the linear case, the number of r**e cases in India has increased at the rate of 1.93% per year.
Therefore, one should think the actual motivation and justice of the incidents while women are completely unsafe and targeted where domination of powerful persons, political exploitation, social crimes and deviations, law and order degradation, educational backwardness and superstitions, low-caste-harassment, and many other factors are responsible for such painful events. Protests in specific places should be utmost important.

17/08/2024

Economic Outlook of SubSaharan Africa ...... Debesh Bhowmik

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By Dr Debesh Bhowmik The Sub-Saharan Africa composed of 7 economic regional blocs, namely, The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), Economic and Monetary Community of Central African States (CEMAC), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), East African Community (EAC-5),....

08/08/2024

https://view19.in/geo-political-crisis-in-south-asia/

By Dr. Debesh Bhowmik Bangladesh student movement-led by BNP and Jamaat-e- Islami, ultimately dethroned Hasina government, is not only an internal political and economic crisis but also an external influence which was not nullified by anybody. A long term dis-satisfaction over the Hasina government....

27/07/2024

Dato (Amb) Dr. Mohd Yusoff Bin A. Bakar, Vice Chancellor & CEO released the book “Economic Integration of COMESA” in presence of Prof. Dr. Abhijit Ghosh, Dean Faculty of Business, and Prof. Dr. Sandeep Poddar Deputy Vice Chancellor (Research & Innovation), Lincoln
University College, Malaysia at the 2nd International Conference on Sustainable Developments in Material Science, Technology and Engineering. The book is jointly written by Prof. Dr. Debesh Bhowmik, Research Professor of Lincoln University College and by Fitzgerald Witika, the Economist in the Research Expert Solution, Lusaka, Zambia.

21/07/2024

NEW ARTICLE
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND MULTI-DIMENSIONAL POVERTY INDEX IN INDIA----DR.DEBESH BHOWMIK.
IN THE EDITED BOOK-SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN INDIA-PROGRESS,ISSUES AND CHALLENGES,--- BY DR.PRADEEP KR.PANDA, 2024,181-218.