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First Alert Hurricane Tracker Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker Providing Hurricane updates, news, and analysis to Florida the Atlantic, the Caribbean and Gulf Coast. firstalerthurricane.com

The First Alert Hurricane Tracker provides the most accurate and timely information regarding hurricanes, severe weather, and winter weather for residents of the Gulf Coast.

24/02/2025
22/02/2025

Very cold air has moderated significantly over the forecast area with increased zonal flow aloft, but strong surface high pressure centered over the Lower MS to OH Valley regions will maintain chilly temperatures through the weekend. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of a weak shortwave trough is most likely producing very light precipitation into western portions of our area early this morning, and some of this could be in the form of a few inconsequential flurries and/or sleet pellets.

ALREADY: Today marks 100 days until the start of the 2025 Hurricane Season. Those common names that are statistically th...
22/02/2025

ALREADY: Today marks 100 days until the start of the 2025 Hurricane Season. Those common names that are statistically the ones most likely to be hurricanes and watch out for (I-J-K) names this year are: "Imelda" -- "Jerry" -- "Karen" in the Atlantic. Dexter replaces "Dorian" which was due up this year -- it was retired from 2019 after devastating the Bahamas. Names are recycled every 6 years unless retired.

Here is your discussion for the weather over the northern Coast.A shortwave is expected to eject east of the Four Corner...
21/02/2025

Here is your discussion for the weather over the northern Coast.

A shortwave is expected to eject east of the Four Corners region Saturday night, while surface high pressure moves eastward.

Surface cyclogenesis will occur along the TX Coast, as the upper trough digs into the Southern Plains. The shortwave will quickly move eastward through the day Sunday, with the surface low drifting eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

As this system moves through the area Sunday into Sunday night, expect rain chances to increase, with the better chances along the southern half of the area. The shortwave will exit the region by daybreak on Monday, bringing any lingering rain chances to an end.

A series of shortwaves will continue to traverse the United States through the upcoming work week. At this point, it doesn't appear that any of these shortwaves will bring any rain chances, given a lack of moisture and latest guidance keeping them to our north.

Thus, expect dry conditions for much of next week, with temperatures gradually moderating to seasonal norms. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows will fall into the 40s by mid week.

Here’s an update on long range forecast.

The upper level flow will be quite strong and could produce some sh/ts by Sunday morning. This would be all elevated as well and with temps starting Sunday in the 40s, this will be a very cold rain.

After the weekend, we will feel a definite warm up for next week and no rain for several days. We will dive into Sunday as this should be the only weather day for the next several and with public and outdoor festivities ongoing, we will try to give the best info possible with regards to any public safety concerns due to weather.

The high to the NE on Sunday will be anchored and refuse to move much. If you take a slice of the atmosphere Sunday and look at it from the side(slice oriented SW to NE), you would see the gentle rise of the isentropic layers from SW to NE through our area. It is above these isentropic layers(warm frontal layers) that clouds can develop and exist. Below these layers, it will be stable and no clouds.

Since these layers rise toward the NE, they effectively shrink the area that clouds can exist as these surfaces squeeze the atmopheric variables against the tropopause. Since it takes clouds to make rain, and there has to be some depth to them to do so, there will be an area to the NE that will get no rain. Basically, the cloud depth and rainfall will decrease as one moves from SW to NE.

And this is the reason the models are showing this tappering to the NE with this system on Sunday. All of that to say this, the depth of cloud and temperature also dictates lightning production. So we can safely say that at some point toward the NE there will light rainfall with no lightning. Just where that line exists will be determined by where the sfc low travels. If the low is closer to the area then the depths of clouds will be deeper for some of the area.

While all areas will have a good chance of getting some rain Sunday, the lowest chances of lightning will be over the NE portion of the area, but as we travel south and SW, this slowly changes and probabilities are not high, but they do exist.

At the moment, the chances are at least high enough to mention slight chance of lightning to the west of the Mississippi River. Again, this will be determined by where the sfc low travels and if the high to the NE is weaker or has a different placement, so bascially, this line can change as it is very subtle differences that drive it.

Please keep in mind that this is not by no means of forecast.The first week of March, some of the ensembles are hinting ...
21/02/2025

Please keep in mind that this is not by no means of forecast.

The first week of March, some of the ensembles are hinting on some snow back in the deep south that puts it right during the Mardi Gras festivities

We may have another polar vortex developing.  New 8-14 day outlook showing similar set up as now.  This would make  #11 ...
21/02/2025

We may have another polar vortex developing. New 8-14 day outlook showing similar set up as now. This would make #11 this winter! (One every other winter woolf be typical)

https://youtu.be/hYYgKkcN6hU
21/02/2025

https://youtu.be/hYYgKkcN6hU

Heads Up! In this video, the new area of rain and storms that is building and coming this weekend. Plus, where the colder weather will be!

The first week of March, some of the ensembles are hinting on some snow back in the deep south that puts it right during...
21/02/2025

The first week of March, some of the ensembles are hinting on some snow back in the deep south that puts it right during the Mardi Gras festivities

20/02/2025

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 8 AM Friday. Light to moderate snow will impact driving conditions this evening through Friday morning. Check cotrip.org for road conditions

20/02/2025

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First Alert Hurricane Tracker

First Alert Hurricane Tracker provides Weather Forecasts, Updates, and Alerts for the Gulf States including Severe Weather, Winter Weather, and our specialty, Tropical Weather. We run our site on Professionalism and Dedication and are well known for our custom weather graphics and descriptive up-to-the-minute forecasts. Providing accurate, no hype weather information to the public as per of being an Ambassador to the National Weather Service’s Weather-Ready Nation. Mission:

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