Despite anticipation, Iran has not directly responded to Israel over the killing of Hamas Political Chief Haniyeh. This unexpected delay in retaliation raises questions about the factors influencing Iran's decision-making. It is possible that Arab countries are urging Iran to exercise restraint, which could be contributing to the delay.
Iran's strategy seems paradoxical. It engages in aggressive actions through proxies like Hezbollah while publicly claiming it wants to avoid escalation. This contradictory approach allows Iran to achieve its objectives indirectly, weakening Israel's defenses while maintaining a diplomatic facade of restraint.
By using Hezbollah to carry out attacks, Iran can achieve its goals without direct involvement. This tactic aims to reduce Israel's readiness for future conflicts. If Hezbollah acts independently, Israel’s response is likely to focus exclusively on Hezbollah, demonstrating a calculated and specific retaliation based on the actual aggressor.
If Hezbollah targets Israeli civilians, Israel is expected to respond with disproportionate force. The anticipated targets include critical infrastructure and military installations in central Israel, such as Tel Aviv, IDF headquarters, Mossad headquarters, intelligence bases, and the airport. Civilian casualties are likely, prompting an immediate Israeli response, unlike the six-day delay seen previously. This response reflects the high stakes and significant potential for damage, underscoring Israel’s commitment to protecting its civilians and deterring future attacks.
Israel has been fortunate that its enemies have demonstrated a lack of creativity and synchronization in their attacks. In April, the previous airstrikes resembled a scattershot approach, with over 300 attacks involving cruise missiles, rockets, and slow-moving drones being launched at Israel. Despite this intense barrage, Israel, with the support of US and NATO forces, successfully intercepted and neutralized 99% of these threats.
Looking forward, there’s a looming question: If Iran decides to attack, will they adopt a more phased and coordinated strategy? It’s possible that Iran could have its proxies target US ships, which are currently providing integrated support to Israel’s air defense system. This would force those ships to focus on their own defense, potentially weakening the overall air defense network.
Complicating the situation further is the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group, which is en route to the region. For now, its presence serves as a deterrent, but it won’t arrive for several weeks. This delay leaves a window of vulnerability.
If Israel’s adversaries manage to coordinate their efforts and launch simultaneous attacks, the potential for significant damage increases dramatically. This scenario underscores the importance of maintaining vigilance and readiness to respond to a more sophisticated and unified threat.
From my discussion with Jim Acosta on CNN.
Israel continues to fight the war against Hamas in way that most countries wouldn't - there would be no tactical pause until objectives were met. I always try to look the work through the eyes of the soldiers on the ground - how they perceive their mission. The IDF just took 8 casualties in the fighting. It looks like IDF raids will continue at night, where Israel has the tech advantage. I think the soldiers will perceive a pause during the day eventually helps to protect the force. From today on CCNNw Brianna Keilar.
Israel may change their ROE after mistakenly attacking a World Central Kitchen convoy. Reports suggest they're using AI to identify potential targets based on behavior. The attack was carried out from the air via drones, with eyes on every target, yet they still failed to identify two Hamas gunmen. Israel has taken accountability and removed those responsible. Non-profit organizaions could benefit from installing identifying beacons in their vehicles or other ways to show they're part of the humanitarian effort. Also, they could use ground troops to verify these convoys instead of just observing from a drone. #Israel #ArtificialIntelligence #HumanitarianAid #WorldCentralKitchen #CNN
I am suggesting a formal offensive air campaign may be necessary to deter Houthi attacks on commercial ships and US forces in the Red Sea. This approach goes beyond the current tit-for-tat response. Stay informed on the latest developments by checking out my recent CNN hit on this topic. #RedSea #HouthiAttacks #USForces #CommercialShips #CNN
The world's state sponsor of exporting terrorism has it come back to them - no telling what's the real story except there are over 300 killed and wounded - two explosions, double-tap attack is the most barbaric - US forces need to be on alert - on @NewsCentralCNN today. #Iran
We are still playing whack-a-mole when it comes to deterring Shia Militia groups from attacking American forces in Iraq - over 100 attacks since October 7; 69 service members attacked. Our response is to attack three drone facilities against a group that has killed Americans before. Things continue to escalate, and as I have said before, we either protect American service members or get them out of there. From my hit this morning on CCNN
I was thinking the US and Israel were talking past each other about what the US wanted Israel to do - from the news conference today, the administration is not putting a time line on the operation; Israel will fight this on their terms. From my hit today on @NewsCentralCNN
Deterrence is strategic, and not a visceral response when attacked - that means it failed. The administration obviously believes we can't do more to stop attacks on Americans because it will expand the conflict - yet, the conflict expands! With @brikeilarcnn on @NewsCentralCNN
Thanksgiving day hit with CNN
Israel is fighting this war on their terms - Hamas likely thought Israel would fight by invading with an overwhelming ground force, while they would fight unconventionally. Surgical air power followed by targeted ground raids is how Israel will fight to defeat Hamas. CBC News
When I was on the ground watching an air campaign attack the enemy daily, I knew we would eventually go, but was ok with as much shaping of the battlefield as possible. What's happening is deliberate and part of an overall plan - from my hit today on @NewsCentralCNN
Israeli Planning
There is a lot of planning that is going into any ground incursion to Gaza; Israel will not do "ready, FIRE, aim". D-Day still a ways away I believe. From my hit this morning on CNN.
On with CBS News and Jeff Glor.
Iran's fingerprints are all over the attack by Hamas into Israel. We have yet to establish a strategic deterrent to keep Iran from funding global terrorism. This war might eventually make its way to the source. From my hit today on @NewsCentralCNN
