01/01/2023
Severe weather outbreak possible across portions of South central US on Monday!!!
A strong low level jet will help bring in moisture and instability from the Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon tomorrow. As this happens, a low pressure system is expected to develop along the KS/OK border sometime during the midday to early afternoon hours. An attendant cold front will also be pushing through the area at this same time.
Given all the ingredients in place, and especially the shear, an all hazards severe weather event is expected to play out. There is some uncertainty as to how far north the severe risk will reach given daytime cloud cover and morning convection could limit destabilization across portions of Kansas, Missouri, and Tennessee.
A few supercells are likely to initiate across/near the Arklatex line, or possibly as far west as Northeast Texas and Southeastern Oklahoma. Any supercell that can stay discrete will pose a threat for tornadoes (a few of which may be strong, long track tornadoes), hail up to golf ball size, and damaging winds of 60 - 70mph....As the evening progresses, storms are expected to congeal into a line and become more of a damaging wind threat, although a spinup tornado or two will still be possible in arches/bowing segments in the line of storms due to sufficient shear.
Will be making another post later tonight or in the morning, once fresh model runs come in, to further address and update this severe weather event.
