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Forward Observer is a Veteran-owned Intelligence services company specializing in threat intelligence, trend analysis, conflict monitoring, and applied intelligence training.

U.S., AUSTRALIA, JAPAN TO BUILD NETWORKED MISSILE DEFENSE: U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the U.S., Australia, ...
11/04/2024

U.S., AUSTRALIA, JAPAN TO BUILD NETWORKED MISSILE DEFENSE: U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the U.S., Australia, and Japan will build a networked air, missile, and defense architecture.

Japan and the U.S. will also jointly develop counterstrike capabilities, Command and Control (C2) infrastructure, a Low-Earth orbit missile detection and tracking satellite constellation, and missile production, resupply, and vessel repair facilities and commercial and military dual-use facilities.

Additionally, “President Biden reiterated the unwavering commitment of the United States to the defense of Japan under Article V of the Treaty, using its full range of capabilities, including nuclear capabilities.” He specified that this includes the disputed Senkaku islands.

Why It Matters: Japan’s forceful preparations indicate they likely think a war with China is inevitable, which will significantly bolster the U.S.’ confidence to fight and win a war in the Pacific. Biden has now committed to defending the Philippines’ Second Thomas Shoal, including the grounded BRP Sierra Madre, and Japan’s Senkaku Islands from armed attacks against China. - J.V.

ISRAEL THREATENS DIRECT STRIKES ON IRAN: U.S. and Israeli officials reported yesterday that they expect a missile and dr...
11/04/2024

ISRAEL THREATENS DIRECT STRIKES ON IRAN: U.S. and Israeli officials reported yesterday that they expect a missile and drone attack by Iran to be imminent.

Israeli foreign minister Israel Katz threatened direct strikes against Iran if Iran conducted attacks from Iranian territory.

Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini continued to threaten retaliation for Israeli strikes that killed multiple senior Iranian military officials earlier this month.

Three sons and three grandchildren of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh were killed in an Israeli airstrike yesterday. Three of Haniyeh's sons and grandchildren were reportedly visiting family for the Eid al-Fitr holiday and did not pose a threat, according to relatives.

Russia this morning reiterated that its citizens should avoid travel to the Middle East, specifically to Israel, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank.

Why It Matters: I doubt Iran wants to start a conventional war with Israel, so their retaliatory attacks should remain beneath the threshold that would trigger one. Israel has bolstered security for personnel and embassies abroad and activated air defense reservists in anticipation of missile barrages. - M.S.

House Judiciary Committee chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) said the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF) and San Francisco F...
11/04/2024

House Judiciary Committee chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) said the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF) and San Francisco Field Office resuming meetings with tech companies ahead of the 2024 election is “deeply troubling,” after a federal judge found that Biden administration communications with social media companies were inappropriate.

According to Jordan, new communications between the FITF and Meta are subject to a 2023 subpoena, and Meta is required to turn over any communications with the FBI.

Why It Matters: Communications between the Biden administration and tech companies are an attempt at opinion shaping and, effectively, government censorship. The cooperation between officials and tech companies is more insidious than simple coercion by officials to censor political speech. Many of the Trust & Safety departments at tech companies are led by and filled with former federal law enforcement and intelligence community officials who share the same goals as the Biden administration to censor what they see as dangerous speech online. Social media platforms and traditional media outlets are likely to increase moderation of content and downplay stories that are politically damaging to Biden’s reelection as the election approaches. - R.C.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping told former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou that no outside force could stop the reunifica...
10/04/2024

Chinese President Xi Jinping told former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou that no outside force could stop the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China.

"External interference cannot stop the historical trend of reunion of the country and family," Xi said, according to Taiwanese media.

Why It Matters: Xi is likely correct that no one will stop reunification with Taiwan. I remain doubtful that the United States will militarily intervene in the defense of Taiwan, which will meet the same fate as Hong Kong. The U.S. strategy appears to be delaying Chinese action on Taiwan until semiconductor manufacturing can begin in the United States. Meanwhile, the U.S. aims to enable Taiwan to defend itself from and resist a potential military invasion. China prefers reunification through means beneath the threshold of conventional war. - M.S.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said that China’s shift away from purchasing U.S. soybeans was a “signal” over states’...
10/04/2024

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said that China’s shift away from purchasing U.S. soybeans was a “signal” over states’ attempts to ban Chinese ownership of farmland.

Vilsack said the Chinese agricultural minister approached him about an Arkansas law that forced the sale of farmland owned by Syngenta, a Chinese agricultural company.

“China’s purchases are $6 billion less than they were a year ago. Why would that be? Is it just Brazil, or was there a reason why the Chinese Ag Minister asked me about Syngenta? It was a signal,” Vilsack said.

Why It Matters: China started shifting agricultural purchases to Brazil a couple of years ago, so this is not new. What is new is China bringing up specific cases of forced divestiture, which is likely to continue drawing a Chinese economic response. This could in turn push the Biden administration to more actively oppose these types of laws enacted by red states. The Department of Justice, for instance, is embroiled in the courts over a similar Florida law. - M.S.

According to Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 702 re-authorization bi...
10/04/2024

According to Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 702 re-authorization bill has 'carve outs' for members of Congress.

The provision would require notification and consent for FISA database searches that include personal information about a member of Congress.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) said he will oppose a House rule vote on the bill, stopping a floor vote.

Why It Matters: This cutout is very likely intended to secure votes to pass this version of the Section 702 re-authorization bill. There is strong bipartisan support for a version of the bill that included a warrant requirement for FBI searches that include American citizens after it was discovered that the FBI conducted millions of possibly illegal searches that included at least one member of Congress. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), however, chose not to bring that version of the bill to the Rules Committee. - R.C.

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said the Japanese defense posture would “fundamentally” change to increase deterre...
09/04/2024

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said the Japanese defense posture would “fundamentally” change to increase deterrence against China.

Emanuel also said that China “cannot cheat and steal the way you did the last ten years” and that U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific are all “coming together” to isolate China.

Why It Matters: The trilateral U.S.-Japan-Philippines summit is scheduled for Thursday, and we note an increase in diplomatic posturing against China. Biden was previously reported as set to “warn” China that its aggressive actions against the Philippines could violate the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. This appears to be a much harder stance than previous U.S. policy. - M.S.

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CHINA: U.S. “OVERSTRETCHING” BORDER SECURITY: Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Mao Ning again accused the United Sta...
09/04/2024

CHINA: U.S. “OVERSTRETCHING” BORDER SECURITY: Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Mao Ning again accused the United States of “overstretching the concept of national security” after a number of Chinese students were deported and had their visas canceled.

China’s ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, previously said that some Chinese students were denied entry into the U.S. after attempting to return to school from trips abroad.

Why It Matters: It’s unclear if the Chinese students were barred entry over counterintelligence concerns, but connections to Chinese intelligence or the Chinese Communist Party is a plausible explanation. China is making use of lax security on the southern border to infiltrate nationals into the United States. Getting Chinese nationals into the U.S. is not a problem. Their problem is that getting Chinese nationals into U.S. universities, research institutions, and other official positions requires entry through official channels, which carries a higher counterintelligence screening risk. - M.S.

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27/02/2024

Billionaire asset manager Jeff Gundlach discussed his thoughts on the Fourth Turning and a civil war. Here's what you need to know.

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KREMLIN RESPONDS TO POLISH TROOP MOVEMENTS: Kremlin officials say that two major Polish troop deployments are escalating...
29/11/2023

KREMLIN RESPONDS TO POLISH TROOP MOVEMENTS: Kremlin officials say that two major Polish troop deployments are escalating regional tensions.
* Earlier this month, Polish officials announced they were sending a tank battalion to reinforce their border with Belarus, and this week announced a possible deployment of troops to bolster the Finnish border with Russia.
* Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peksov characterized the movements as a possible threat.
* Finnish officials, meanwhile, say Russia is behind a refugee crisis on their border and have requested Polish military support. “Russia is enabling the instrumentalization of people [refugees] and guiding them to the Finnish border in harsh winter conditions. Finland is determined to put an end to this phenomenon,” Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said.
* Why It Matters: Russia continues its gray zone warfare against its neighbors. Pushing refugees into Europe is one of Russia’s gray zone mainstays and is unlikely to lead to an expansion of armed conflict. One recent report concluded that Russia needs to spend 5-10 years rearming and refitting its military before being in a position to expand armed conflict outside of Ukraine. – M.S.

Forward Observer’s Cyber Monday deals are live. Next year is going to be turbulent. Protests, riots, civil unrest, supply chains, markets, elections — you name it, it’s going to get disrupted. You don’t have to go it alone in 2024. The Early Warning intel team keeps you informed on what matters, when you need to know it. Put us on your team with a new Early Warning membership. https://hubs.li/Q02blDXS0

SUPREME COURT COULD DEAL MAJOR BLOW TO BIDEN GREEN AGENDA: The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments in...
29/11/2023

SUPREME COURT COULD DEAL MAJOR BLOW TO BIDEN GREEN AGENDA: The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments in Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) v. Jarkesy which could force federal agencies to bring civil suits in federal court instead of using in-house judges.
* A group of energy industry lawyers said in an amicus brief that “multiple, grave, constitutional violations” occurred in the original SEC administrative hearing against hedge fund founder George Jarkesy.
* Why It Matters: The Supreme Court’s affirmation of the 5th Circuit’s decision that the SEC cannot use in-house judges for civil suits could have widespread effects on federal power. Federal regulators like the SEC and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would be required to bring civil suits in federal courts, instead of using their own in-house judges, which would require agencies to show they have standing to bring the suit in the first place. This case could also revive the “nondelegation doctrine” that Congress cannot delegate law-making authorities to federal agencies, putting another nail in the Chevron Deference coffin and becoming a thorn in the side of the Biden administration’s green energy agenda. – R.C.

Forward Observer’s Cyber Monday deals are live. Next year is going to be turbulent. Protests, riots, civil unrest, supply chains, markets, elections — you name it, it’s going to get disrupted. You don’t have to go it alone in 2024. The Early Warning intel team keeps you informed on what matters, when you need to know it. Put us on your team with a new Early Warning membership. https://hubs.li/Q02bl_gz0

WALL STREET AND BILLIONAIRES’ NEW POTUS PICK: Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Brid...
29/11/2023

WALL STREET AND BILLIONAIRES’ NEW POTUS PICK: Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, said the U.S. needs bipartisan “smart moderates” in national leadership positions – a direct swipe at the 2024 frontrunners President Biden and former President Trump.
* “If you bring the sides together in a bipartisan way, and you create a strong middle, that’s what the country needs in order to be healthy, I believe,” Dalio said yesterday.
Dalio said that Americans should alienate those with “extreme political views,” and he expects an alternative candidate to former President Trump.
* Americans for Prosperity Action, a political network backed by billionaire Charles Koch, endorsed former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley for U.S. President yesterday.
* Why It Matters: Wall Street and some in the U.S. billionaire class are lining up behind Nikki Haley as the preferred moderate presidential candidate, as President Biden struggles in recent polls against former President Trump. Haley could pick up more similar endorsements in December, which would give her momentum going into next year’s primary season. – H.B.
* Ray Dalio has been beating the drum, warning of domestic conflict for several years. In one video a couple of years ago, he boiled it down to socialists versus capitalists and has, at many other times, been quick to say that the U.S. is headed down the path of internal conflict. He almost certainly sees a strong centrist as a moderating force that could deter a conflict. Expect him and his billionaire-class circle to use their money towards this cause. – M.S.

Forward Observer’s Cyber Monday deals are live. Next year is going to be turbulent. Protests, riots, civil unrest, supply chains, markets, elections — you name it, it’s going to get disrupted. You don’t have to go it alone in 2024. The Early Warning intel team keeps you informed on what matters, when you need to know it. Put us on your team with a new Early Warning membership. https://hubs.li/Q02blR-D0

ARMSTRONG: U.S. ECONOMY WILL BE LAST TO FALL: Economist and former international hedge fund manager Martin Armstrong wro...
28/11/2023

ARMSTRONG: U.S. ECONOMY WILL BE LAST TO FALL: Economist and former international hedge fund manager Martin Armstrong wrote that rising debts would first cripple countries other than America, despite the growing U.S. debt.
“For decades, people have predicted that the dollar will crumble to dust [due to rising debt],” and on the opposite side, economists like Paul Krugman argue that government debt can never be too big, Armstrong wrote.
The debt problem is global, as “every country has been borrowing with no intention of paying back anything… we are looking at a major sovereign debt default” that will start overseas, Armstrong added.
Why It Matters: Unlike Armstrong, many economists and financial market analysts only consider developments and conditions inside the U.S. rather than internationally. Rising U.S. debts and deficits are a problem, but America still has the world’s leading advanced economy, and the dollar should remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future. – H.B.

Forward Observer’s Cyber Monday deals are live. Next year is going to be turbulent. Protests, riots, civil unrest, supply chains, markets, elections — you name it, it’s going to get disrupted. You don’t have to go it alone in 2024. The Early Warning intel team keeps you informed on what matters, when you need to know it. Put us on your team with a new Early Warning membership. https://hubs.li/Q02bbhKr0

DESANTIS AND NEWSOM DEBATE THIS WEEK: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and California Governor Gavin Newsom are scheduled t...
28/11/2023

DESANTIS AND NEWSOM DEBATE THIS WEEK: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and California Governor Gavin Newsom are scheduled to debate each other on Thursday in an event on Fox News hosted and moderated by Sean Hannity.
* Newsom spokesman Nathan Click said there were “no illusions” that this would be a “two-on-one” match and that Newsom would use the debate to defend President Biden and “take on the misinformation machine at its headwaters.”
* Why It Matters: With Nikki Haley pulling ahead and the “Never Trump” movement coalescing around her campaign, DeSantis has very little to gain from this debate with Newsom but a lot to lose. A bad performance could be the death knell for the already-foundering DeSantis 2024 campaign and a boost to Newsom’s national profile. – R.C.

Forward Observer’s Cyber Monday deals are live. Next year is going to be turbulent. Protests, riots, civil unrest, supply chains, markets, elections — you name it, it’s going to get disrupted. You don’t have to go it alone in 2024. The Early Warning intel team keeps you informed on what matters, when you need to know it. Put us on your team with a new Early Warning membership. https://hubs.li/Q02bbdZs0

BIDEN ANNOUNCES NEW CABINET-LEVEL SUPPLY CHAIN OFFICE: President Biden announced the new cabinet-level White House Counc...
28/11/2023

BIDEN ANNOUNCES NEW CABINET-LEVEL SUPPLY CHAIN OFFICE: President Biden announced the new cabinet-level White House Council on Supply Chain Resilience, which will conduct a quadrennial review of U.S. supply chains with the first report due by the end of 2024.
* Under the new national strategy, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Department of Commerce will partner to assess foreign dependency and points of failure for critical medicines and drug precursors.
* The White House announced President Biden will also invoke the Defense Production Act to broaden HHS and Department of Health investments in essential domestic medication manufacturing.
* Why It Matters: U.S. reliance on foreign labs, primarily in China and India, remains a significant threat to the availability and quality of medications, drug precursors, and medical devices. Distributors in the U.S. have also recently been caught introducing adulterated medications into the market. To mitigate this threat, the Biden administration will need to implement a more effective inspection process through the Food and Drug Administration and incentivize domestic medication manufacturing. – R.C.

Forward Observer’s Cyber Monday deals are live. Next year is going to be turbulent. Protests, riots, civil unrest, supply chains, markets, elections — you name it, it’s going to get disrupted. You don’t have to go it alone in 2024. The Early Warning intel team keeps you informed on what matters, when you need to know it. Put us on your team with a new Early Warning membership. https://hubs.li/Q02bbm6w0

BOFA: GLOBAL SILVER DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY: Bank of America analysts published their 2024 silver analysis and foreca...
27/11/2023

BOFA: GLOBAL SILVER DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY: Bank of America analysts published their 2024 silver analysis and forecast, showing that global silver demand – partially from increased green energy applications – will likely exceed supply this decade.
* The above-ground silver supply has fallen by about 30% since early 2021.
Large silver producers’ annual output through 2025 will be 15-20% lower than the previous highs due to lower capital investments of the past decade, according to Bank of America’s model.
* Electric vehicles (EVs) use about double or more the amount of silver compared to internal combustion vehicles, and EVs will account for 40% of global vehicle production by 2030, Bank of America’s forecast noted.
* Why It Matters: Compared to gold, more silver production is consumed rather than stored, and market supply-demand imbalances have more of an impact on silver prices. Continued imbalances could push silver prices higher next year and through the 2020s. – H.B

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BATTLEGROUND STATES PUSH FOR FASTER 2024 VOTE COUNT: Several battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Geo...
27/11/2023

BATTLEGROUND STATES PUSH FOR FASTER 2024 VOTE COUNT: Several battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, have passed new election laws to speed up vote counting ahead of the 2024 election.
* Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) said election officials across battleground states are preparing for close elections in 2024 and “post-election challenges and misinformation to flourish as a result.”
* Why It Matters: 2024 is set to be the most contentious election in modern U.S. history, with a strong likelihood of political violence, and state election officials are scrambling to deflect any possible blame over election irregularities in 2024. – R.C.

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HOUSE COULD VOTE TO EXPEL NY REPUBLICAN SANTOS THIS WEEK: House Ethics Committee Chair Michael Guest (R-MS) introduced a...
27/11/2023

HOUSE COULD VOTE TO EXPEL NY REPUBLICAN SANTOS THIS WEEK: House Ethics Committee Chair Michael Guest (R-MS) introduced a resolution to expel Rep. George Santos (R-NY) from the House, and a vote could happen as soon as this week.
* Santos said he expects to be expelled from the House and accused other lawmakers of violating Congressional ethics without being targeted for investigation.
* Why It Matters: Removing Santos would likely lose a seat for the GOP, but the move to expel him over ethics and criminal complaints could be an attempt by the GOP to save the other four New York seats held by Republicans. – R.C.

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SEVERE RECESSION IN THE FREIGHT MARKET: The highly cyclical freight market is in one of the worst downturns in history, ...
22/11/2023

SEVERE RECESSION IN THE FREIGHT MARKET: The highly cyclical freight market is in one of the worst downturns in history, according to supply chain market intelligence company FreightWaves.
* An estimated 35,000 new trucking companies shut down in the fiscal year ending 30 September – more than double the 10-year average of 15,585 annual new trucking company closures.
* Average per-mile rates for trucking fleets fell 12% from 2022 and 34% from 2021, according to the FreightWaves National Truckload Index.
* Why It Matters: Freight analysts believe the trucking industry will improve once tens of thousands of newly established trucking companies close. However, mounting environmental and anti-business regulations could challenge seasoned trucking companies, leading to higher rates of bankruptcies and closures than forecasts show – meaning a tougher freight recession may be ahead. – H.B.

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CHINA’S AMPHIBIOUS SHIP FIRE: One of China’s Yuzhao-class Amphibious Transport Docks was filmed belching black smoke col...
22/11/2023

CHINA’S AMPHIBIOUS SHIP FIRE: One of China’s Yuzhao-class Amphibious Transport Docks was filmed belching black smoke columns while underway yesterday.
* The Chinese government made no official statement. However, there are rumors that this was some sort of drill.
* All of this ship class is part of the East and South China Sea Fleets, which would partake in an attack on Taiwan.
* Why It Matters: The sheer amount and type of smoke coming from the vessel suggests this was an engine fire. As one of nine hulls, this will notably impact China’s naval readiness for an invasion of Taiwan scenario. – J.V.

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WYDEN SETTING UP BIDEN WARRANTLESS WIRETAP SCANDAL: In a letter to the Department of Justice (DOJ), Senator Ron Wyden (D...
22/11/2023

WYDEN SETTING UP BIDEN WARRANTLESS WIRETAP SCANDAL: In a letter to the Department of Justice (DOJ), Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) urged Attorney General Merrick Garland to release information on the Hemisphere phone surveillance program that allows federal, state, and local law enforcement to request searches of trillions of U.S. phone records without a warrant.
* Wyden said he has “serious concerns about the legality of this program,” and materials Wyden already obtained from the DOJ contain “troubling information that would justifiably outrage many Americans” and other lawmakers.
* According to publicly available information, the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy indirectly pays AT&T through a grant to the Houston High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area to allow law enforcement agencies to search customers’ records as far back as 1987.
* Why It Matters: Wyden appears to be setting Biden up for a warrantless wiretapping scandal like the one the George W. Bush administration was hit by in the mid-2000s. This could be an attempt to create an early “October surprise” from Democrats who are putting pressure on Biden to step back from reelection in 2024. – R.C.

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TAIWAN’S LEADING PARTY SOLIDIFIES PRO-INDEPENDENCE TICKET: Leading Taiwanese Presidential Candidate Lai Ching-te announc...
21/11/2023

TAIWAN’S LEADING PARTY SOLIDIFIES PRO-INDEPENDENCE TICKET: Leading Taiwanese Presidential Candidate Lai Ching-te announced former Taiwanese Representative to the United States Hsiao Bi-Khim as his running mate on the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) ticket.
* Hsiao was born to an American mother and Taiwanese father, raised in a mainline Presbyterian household, and holds several degrees from American universities. She renounced her U.S. citizenship in 2002 to hold political office in Taiwan.
* Hsiao countered Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy with what she called her own “cat warrior” diplomacy, referencing her love for cats.
* She also attended President Biden’s inauguration, the first Taiwanese Representative to do so since the official break in 1979.
* Why It Matters: Lai picked another pro-independence running mate with deep ties to the United States – two factors that are roiling the Chinese. Taiwan’s presidential election is scheduled for January 2024 and remains a potential flashpoint for a conflict with China. – J.V.

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CORPORATE UNIONIZATION PUSH ESCALATES: The United Auto Workers (UAW) said yesterday that 64% of workers at the Detroit T...
21/11/2023

CORPORATE UNIONIZATION PUSH ESCALATES: The United Auto Workers (UAW) said yesterday that 64% of workers at the Detroit Three automakers voted to ratify new contracts after this year’s strikes, and now the UAW plans to target foreign-owned and Tesla auto plants.
* These latest votes by UAW members lock in the union’s agreements with automakers through April 2028 and include a 25% increase in base wages, with top wages rising by 33%.
* “Now, we take our strike muscle and our fighting spirit to the rest of the industries we represent and to millions of non-union workers ready to stand up and fight for a better way of life,” said UAW President Shawn Fain.
* Wells Fargo employees at two bank branches filed for union elections on Monday, signaling that even the white-collar banking industry may not be resistant to the unionization push.
* The Association of Professional Flight Attendants, which represents American Airlines employees, asked a federal oversight board to allow ending contract talks with the airline, citing a lack of progress – a step towards a possible strike.
* Why It Matters: Organized labor should stay on the offensive, as American voters supported striking workers across industries earlier this year. Higher wage costs from union contracts will contribute to the second wave of inflation that may hit consumers in the first half of 2024. – H.B.

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SUPREME COURT DECLINES CHAUVIN APPEAL WITHOUT COMMENT: The U.S. Supreme Court declined to take up former Minneapolis Pol...
21/11/2023

SUPREME COURT DECLINES CHAUVIN APPEAL WITHOUT COMMENT: The U.S. Supreme Court declined to take up former Minneapolis Police Officer Derek Chauvin’s appeal of his 2021 conviction for the death of George Floyd.
* Chauvin’s appeal claimed the state trial and appeals courts erred in refusing to change the trial venue and hold hearings on evidence of jury bias and misconduct after the trial.
* Why It Matters: Supreme Court justices declined to take up Chauvin’s appeal without explanation, but the refusal was likely due to how much of a political powder keg that even taking up the case could be in 2024. Another attempt at a political revolution, including widespread demonstrations and riots, in 2024 is already a strong likelihood. Chauvin possibly winning an acquittal in an appeal to the Supreme Court would provide even more political ammunition for leftwing militants. – R.C.

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CHINA KICKS OFF MIDDLE EAST SUMMIT: Officials from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine are in Beijing this week f...
20/11/2023

CHINA KICKS OFF MIDDLE EAST SUMMIT: Officials from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine are in Beijing this week for the China-Middle East Summit.
* Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal al-Saud said Arab officials want to send a “clear signal” to end the fighting in Gaza. Some of the officials described the Israel-Hamas war as genocide.
* Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China is a “good friend and brother of Arab and Muslim countries” and that China has always supported the Palestinian people.
* Why It Matters: Only a handful of years ago, these Arab diplomats might have rushed to meet with U.S. officials to end the Israel-Hamas conflict. Arab diplomats, however, see the Biden administration’s backing of Israel, including sending the Israel Defense Force munitions for their bombing campaign in Gaza, as disqualifying for the U.S. to be a mediator. Enter China, whose diplomats have already brought peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia, at least on paper, as the mediator of choice – another diplomatic win for China and a diplomatic loss for the United States. – M.S.

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Forward Observer

I left the intelligence community in 2012 and ended a successful career as an intelligence analyst, first in the Army and then as a civilian contractor. I was deployed part of every year from 2006 to 2011, and served in Afghanistan (2006-2007), Iraq (2008-2009), and then back to Afghanistan (2010-2011). After my last 18-month tour in Afghanistan, I took a much needed break and became a fly fishing guide in Wyoming.

But I couldn’t stay away from the world of intelligence, so in 2014, I started Forward Observer. I began writing intelligence reports geared towards the preparedness community in January 2016. Today, Forward Observer has grown into an intelligence services company, offering a Warning service (daily intel briefing) and intelligence training.

You can subscribe to my Warning service at https://members.forwardobserver.com