The STL Weather Man

05/12/2023

Models are in better agreement this afternoon and with that the chances for winter precipitation have diminished for Saturday into Sunday. We will still have a deep drop in temperatures as well as some beneficial rain possibly thunderstorms as well.

04/12/2023

**** OUTDATED POST ****

This week looks to be a fun one. Dry through most of the week with moderating temperatures with 60s Thursday and Friday. Saturday we then get what could be an absolute mess. Temperatures will start out warm getting close to 60 then a winter cold front will pass through mid day dropping temperatures down close to freezing by the end of the day and overnight into Sunday.

That is what is for certain, now for what is not:
A weather system will pull out of the west starting out as rain and then transitioning to snow. What we don't know is the track as the models are a bit all over the place which is common this far out with some models showing the system taking a more northerly track which would drive accumulating snow over northern Missouri and into IL. Another model drives the system further south which would bring more accumulating snow to our area. We can't talk about possible totals at this time with such a difference in model variances but we will at a minimum see snow flakes in the air Sunday Morning.

Stay tuned as we start to get better data on this.

22/11/2023

It has been a busy couple of weeks for me but I did not forget about you all.

We could see a little light precipitation Saturday night into Sunday morning. It could be light rain or it could be a little bit of snow but it won't accumulate. What it will be is a lot colder than what we have been used to recently.

Tomorrow will be sunny and in the mid 50s to possibly the higher 50s. Then it gets cold with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the lower 30s to upper 20s which gives us the chance to see some flakes Saturday night.

The cold will last into early next week and then highs climbing into the 50s by mid-week. Not that bad of a holiday forecast. Have a great weekend.

16/11/2023

Weather is about to finally start cooling off.

Though not to much. We are looking at temperatures close to if not below normal by around Thanksgiving. This is after an earlier in the week cold front allowed for the ridge over the middle of the United States to finally head south.

We are looking at the FIRST possible winter weather event coming up "possibly soon" as well right after Thanksgiving just enough to get everyone in the Christmas spirit. At this range point for 8 days away is in the low range for now as the track of the system that is being seen can move a lot between now and then. With the warm ground it would take quite a bit of winter precipitation for accumulation to occur.
For now just know that the possibility during the Thanksgiving holiday for winter precipitation that could hinder travel.

05/11/2023

Weather looks to remain mostly dry over the next week or so. Any chance of a shower will be short lived and will not affect any ongoing plans that you might have.

Temperatures over the next couple of days will skyrocket and Tuesday and Wednesday could see temperatures close to if not higher than 80 degrees.

After Wednesday Temperatures will go back down to low 60s for highs for the remainder of the week, weekend, and early next week.

Lows over the next couple of days should be in the 50s and then lower to upper 30s to lower 40s for lows for remainder of this week, weekend and beginning of next week.

Easy weather to schedule to events around. Remember Friday is the federal observed holiday for Veteran's Day and many restaurants will tailor their menus and provide discounted if not free meals for veterans on either Friday or Saturday depending on the restaurant.

Have a great week.

31/10/2023

I know it is cold outside but I promise it will warm up.

This week we will see dry conditions with temperatures in the 40s during the day and 20s/30s during the night through Wednesday.

Starting on Thursday the warm up begins. Highs of around 60 on Thursday and mid to upper 60s to possibly 70+ before the weekend concludes. Dry conditions will continue for the most part. Small chance for rain late on the weekend but I would not consider it much of anything to even consider with any plans.

Early next week the warm weather lasts probably till Tuesday then a frontal system will come out from the north with limited moisture and cooler temperatures back into the 40s and 50s. Temperatures could get even colder by the following weekend just in time for deer season (no winter precipitation on the horizon at this time)

24/10/2023

Our wonderful weather that we have had recently is about to change soon.

Off and on rain over the next 4-5 days will occur giving much needed precipitation between Wednesday and Sunday. On average most areas can see 1.5 inches to over 2 inches of much needed rain.

Now that is just the start of the change. Late this week starting on Saturday we will see major temperature changes. Saturday and Sunday highs could be lucky to reach 60 degrees. On Monday and beyond temperatures could possibly not even reach 50 degrees. with lows possibly in the 20s a couple of days next week. First freeze is coming.

Some apps out there are saying we might get some snow or sleet out at the end of the weekend at the end of the weather systems affecting us. I will say now, that is NOT going to happen. Don't ever trust weather apps. Uninstall them. They are worthless.

The colder temperatures should persist throughout the week next week. With that we welcome November 2023 to the St Louis region.

15/10/2023

Models last week was not too positive on this week until just recently. We should have mostly dry conditions this week with highs in the 60s and 70s through late next weekend. Limited moisture and chances of rain.

Another great week ahead!

04/10/2023

We will have on and off rain over the next 36 hours. Temperatures will drop into the 70s for highs Thursday, upper 60s on Friday and 60s on Saturday. As we start early next week we warm right back up into 70s and 80s with dry skies. It is possible we could still see 90. Temperature and seasonal roller coaster is starting.

02/10/2023

With the start of October we usually start to look at models on a routine basis to see seasonal changes.

Well as of right now, I don't see any significant seasonal changes coming in our direction. We have a good chance for rain mid-week with temperatures dropping into the 60s for highs for the remainder of the week and then temperatures rebound late weekend and we are then right back to where we have been for past week. Above normal temperatures and limited precipitation chances going through most of the first couple of weeks of October.

So Early Fall / Late Summer weather shall continue.

25/08/2023

Let's take a break from the heat and think about cool Fall nights as Friday Night Lights in Missouri starts tomorrow. I maintain this site on the side which tracks all high school games LIVE in Missouri, gives direct links to schedules, and other information for some of the best parts of the fall season. So Lets take a break from the heat and welcome back high school football.

Missouri High School Sports Live Scoreboards - Blue Monkey Online

16/04/2023

ALL STL METRO (MISSOURI side) are in the clear now.

15/04/2023

2 Tornado Warnings currently.

Jefferson County North of Hillsboro heading NE towards Barnhart

Valley Park heading ENE right along I44.

Both of these are radar indicated.

15/04/2023

Strong Winds and Very Large Hail are biggest problems EXPECTED over the next 2 hours in the BLUE BOX. Expect to move all activities indoors for the early portion of the evening.

2-3 inch Hail size is possible.

15/04/2023

*** Radar Indicated Tornado Warning ***

Very Large Hail. In excess of 2-3 inch of size with this storm. Hail would be the highest threat with this system. This cell continues to hold together with extremely high winds. It would be wise to secure your vehicles inside if you can. This cell is on a path that could take it into the metro between 6-7pm this evening.

15/04/2023

An evening of severe weather is kicking off as we speak. Tornado warning (radar indicated) just south of Vienna MO heading east. Track will take it north of St. James MO towards Cuba MO.

01/04/2023

Last of the storms is rolling through. These are strong storms but they are not severe at this time. Strong winds and hail could happen with this line of storms but once they pass through we should start to clear out and end with a peaceful evening.

31/03/2023

OUTDATED POST

1800 Update

Intensity of the Storms has weaken. Rain from earlier today in our area has affected these storms and it is quite evident. We still have storms in the area and hail and strong winds could still exist but the intensity has diminished.

I don't think we will see much of an issue from here on out on an extreme scale as it was just an hour ago.

31/03/2023

OUTDATED POST

1730 UPDATE

Very fast moving storms 60-70 mph.

Currently these storms are holding together and expect large hail, strong winds, possible rotations, and spin up short range tornadoes.

Shelter in place until 730pm or until activity is east of your area.

31/03/2023

Over the past 30 minutes, most of the development to the west has increased significantly. These storms are very potent storms. 4 tornado warnings currently as 1717. Numerous hail reports and very strong wind.

Please delay activities over the next 2-3 hours until these events move to our east.

31/03/2023

OUTDATED POST

******* 4 Tornado warnings currently in our area at this time *******

weather is currently ramping up. Currently 4 storms in our region with Tornado warnings.

1 to the north heading towards Calhoune

1 to the west heading towards Sullivan St. Clair and will enter Pacific area afterwards.

1 furth southwest (west of Centerville and near Bourbon.

1 Near Ridgewood heading towards Hillsboro

31/03/2023

Current atmospherics as of 1530 central time, show development has begun to the west but not near the metro currently. Earlier development occured southwest of the metro but has since dissapated as it got closer. with the current development currently occurring to the west in central missouri along with a speed of about 60-70mph, we could be looking at current severe weather moving through our area closer to 5-6pm timeframe. this would put everything out east and out of our area by the 7pm timeframe.

When things get closer we will see further development in this type of setup as this is not a line setup but more of a scattered cell development which is more difficult track as development goes up and down very quickly which also limits long train cells which we will see march across the area causing issues across several areas.

Also with scattered cell development not everyone will see severe elements. Some areas will only get a few showers and few rumbles of thunder. But the bad situations will have limited warning time as spinups happen very quickly.

Best thing to do is monitor Fox2 as from personal experience dealing with severe weather, they do an excellent job of pushing out data over the air as soon as possible and their experts on staff are quite knowledgeable compared to others on giving the right information out.

31/03/2023

**** OUTDATED POST *****

I expect the main to truly develop and start to affect our area starting between 2-3pm. Most of severe weather should be east of us by 6pm. Please utilize fox2 for critical immediate information. I do not have the time with my main job to be able to detour to severe storm tracking.

01/03/2023

So it is 3 days till the next winter based system (somewhat near the area) and the models got together, collaborated, and decided that all of them are going to go in different directions just to screw up ensembles and everything else that they could think of. They honestly do not agree with each other and like sibilings are not getting along. "Don't make me turn this car around!"

Either way, the chance of winter weather on Friday is really slim. Anything that even could fall in our area won't have any chance to accumulate at this point or cause any impacts to your daily lives. NON IMPACT EVENT.

With that being said. If you are heading west to Kansas City, or more likely towards the Iowa border you could possibly see some snow that could accumulate. The Main factor though will be the wind. This system will come with a lot of wind as it will be a fully mature cyclone system with possibly all 4 seasons active in the state of Missouri all at the same time for a short time during the day on Friday with warm Spring and Summer type weather and possibly severe storms in south and SE Missouri to cold windy wet fall weather around our area to winter like weather in northern Missouri.

So with all of that being said, I will continue to track this event but unless I see some changes that would be impactful to our area I will close the door on reporting on it. Just FYI, be on the lookout for Mary Poppins and Yondu.

27/02/2023

Models are still playing around with this system as the trends continue north.

Many questions remain with temp profiles, storm track, you name it. As of right now we do have a chance of snow but it remains to be seen how much of a factor if any it plays in the metro.

This system will be one watched until we are in that 48 hour window to get a good consensus on the solution.

26/02/2023

Its late February and on many individuals' minds is Spring here yet? Well the answer to that is definitely a no. Our area gets random winter weather events all the time in March and sometimes even later.

An event has popped up on my radar and it looks like it should be on everyone's radar at this time. A strong southern storm late this week will approach our area from the southwest Thursday night into Friday morning. The event which now is being advertised by all models at this time has many questions but not a ton of consistency as of yet so things can easily change in the coming weeks days but this kind of event can bring in a quick hit of winter weather.

At this time and point, we just need to monitor it and see if we have good consitency. This event though has the potential to be a big player in your Friday event planning so be mindful if consistency and potential improves that your Friday event planning can be affected as this strong storm system could drop several inches of snow in a small amount of time before the system moves out of the area later on Friday.

Stay tuned.