SCMWeather

07/08/2024

Light rain 🌧 will overspread the region today and continue into the overnight hours. I'm not expecting much out of this, with a little over 0.5" likely being the top of the range.

Following this weak system, an extended period of dry weather is on tap through the weekend.

That said, with a deep trough developing over the Great Lakes, it's going to feel more like fall 🍂 with well below average temps settling in through the weekend.

05/08/2024

A very wet and active day is underway across the region today, with heavy rain and severe weather all a possibility ⛈

Rain is ongoing this morning just south of I-94 from the northwestern areas to the Twin Cities metro. This will continue much of the day, with widespread totals of 1-3" likely.

This afternoon, focus will shift to the potential for some severe weather. The greatest risk will be large hail and damaging winds, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out as well.

25/06/2024

⚠️ THIS WATCH HAS EXPIRED ⚠️

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED
Valid until 4:00am, this watch has been issued for portions of east-central Minnesota. Sharing is caring, especially as night falls!

Thunderstorms ⛈ are developing this evening and are expected to increase in coverage and intensity over the next couple hours. Eventually, upscale growth into a line is likely, but may occur just east of the area.

Potential hazards in and near this watch include:

🌪 A tornado or two is possible.
💨 Damaging wind gusts to 75mph.
🫧 Large hail up to tennis ball size.
🌧 Torrential downpours, localized flooding possible.

Due to it being nighttime, make sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings. Be prepared to act quickly if a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your location, as tornadoes can and occasionally do form with no advanced warning!

24/06/2024

A significant outbreak of severe weather is possible this evening, though it is highly conditional on storms even being able to form.

As of 4:30pm, scattered showers and storms are ongoing along US-14 from Sleepy Eye to Rochester. These are expected to continue east-southeast with little to no fanfare.

Virtually all model guidance does show storm development this evening. The biggest question revolves around one word...

WHERE?

Wherever storms do form, the highly unstable airmass will result in explosive development. Initially, very large hail would be likely before a rapid transition to squall line(s) capable of producing widespread, significant damaging winds.

A flood watch is also in place for some due to saturated ground and the potential for a couple rounds of intense storms tracking over the same area.

Keep an eye to the sky this evening and have multiple ways of receiving warnings, friends!

24/06/2024

Raise your hand if you spent your weekend kayaking in your backyard 🙋 If you did, you certainly don't need me to tell you it's been wet with nearly 16" of rain in the last 30 days for some!

Unfortunately, the pattern will remain semi-active this next week with a potentially significant threat of severe weather Monday evening into the nighttime.

🌡 After a hot day with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, the atmosphere will be primed to explode ⛈ as a cold front arrives in the evening.

The fly in the ointment will be whether the strong cap will break and allow storms to fire. The possibilities range from no storms whatsoever, to a significant damaging wind 💨 event in or near the region after 8pm. As of now, the threat level is a 2 out of 5, but that could change depending on model trends.

I'll be paying close attention to trends tomorrow, so stay tuned!

20/06/2024

🎶 Here comes the rain again... 🎶

It's the first day of summer, but it sure doesn't feel like it locally. Unfortunately for us, a couple additional rounds of showers and storms will result in widespread 1-3" rainfall totals, with locally higher amounts of 3-6" possible as shown in this image.

🌦 As of 2:00pm, rain is pushing through with amounts ranging from just a trace to as much as 0.75" likely through this evening.

⛈ After 11:00pm this evening, storms are expected to develop to our southwest and push northeast through the region. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" are likely with this round through tomorrow morning.

⚡️ After a break in the activity tomorrow afternoon, storms are expected to redevelop tomorrow evening. Additional rainfall totals of 1-2" are likely through Saturday morning.

Lastly, severe weather cannot be ruled out with the activity tonight and tomorrow. The greatest risk will be large hail and damaging winds, though a brief tornado or two isn't out of the question either.

18/06/2024

⚠️ TORNADO WATCH NOW IN EFFECT⚠️

Valid until 8:00pm, a tornado watch has been issued for a large portion of the area. Sharing is caring, friends!

Supercell thunderstorms ⛈ are expected to develop along a cold front advancing into the area this afternoon. As the storms advance east, we may see storms merge into a broken squall line before weakening this evening.

Potential hazards in and near this watch include:

🌪 Several tornadoes possible.
💨 Damaging wind gusts to 70mph.
🫧 Large hail up to 2" in diameter.
🌧 Torrential downpours, localized flooding possible.

If you live in or near the watch, now is the time to begin your tornado preparations. Have multiple ways of receiving warnings, know exactly where your tornado safe spot is, and be prepared to act quickly if a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your location.

17/06/2024

Significant rainfall from repeated rounds of showers and storms may produce areas of flash flooding over the next 48 hours.

⛈ Tonight: Thunderstorms will develop along a front pushing into the region from the south. Very heavy rainfall is likely, though some hail and gusty winds are possible also.

⚡️ Storms will continue through Monday into Monday night as the front lifts north. The caveat here is just how fast the front lifts through the region. If the front moves quick, the risk of flash flooding will decrease. If it's slower, as some guidance suggests, the risk for flash flooding will be elevated. I'm leaning towards the slower movement, but either direction wouldn't surprise me.

🌥 Tuesday, we should actually see a bit of a lull in the activity with peaks of sun. However, a cold front will arrive in the late afternoon and spark off a new round of storms, some of which may be severe.

16/06/2024

Wishing all of you who go by the name of dad a very Happy Father's Day today! 🍻 We celebrate all of you for being our rock, mentor, and biggest supporters in life!

An especially Happy Father's Day to my dad, the best dad a guy could ask for. As you can tell from the photos, there's always a lot of fun to be had when we're together. Despite many miles between us, he's my biggest supporter in life and is always supporting me through the good times and the bad! 🥰

Enjoy your day today, dads! It's going to be a 🌡 hot one, so make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you're spending time outdoors.

15/06/2024

We are entering a very active pattern as a ridge of near record strength sets up over the Mid-Atlantic. As a result, storm chances will be frequent, with warm/hot, muggy conditions locally.

⛈ Today and Tonight: Showers and storms will temper the highs today. Some severe weather is possible this evening southeast of a line from Pipestone to Buffalo and Forest Lake. Hail, strong winds, and torrential downpours are all likely with these storms.

☀️ Tomorrow: Skies will clear and result in hot and humid conditions developing. An Excessive Heat Watch is in place for the Twin Cities metro in expectation of heat indices rising to around 100°F in the afternoon.

🌦 Tomorrow Night into Monday: Renewed thunderstorm development is likely. Very heavy rainfall and severe weather are likely with these storms. I'll be watching that closely this weekend.

Daily showers and storms are likely through the upcoming work week, with some areas likely picking up 6-10" of rain between now and next Friday!

02/06/2024

Welcome Meteorological Summer! ☀️ While there's no real heat on the horizon (yet), there is plenty of wet, active weather to focus on.

The first period to keep an eye on is Sunday into Monday and the second being Tuesday into Tuesday night. Both periods will need to be watched for severe weather and heavy rainfall.

For Sunday into Monday, at least scattered storms are possible after 10am. The greater concern is for a line of storms to develop in the Dakotas and move eastward in the evening, though. Damaging winds 💨 and heavy rainfall 🌧 will be the primary threats, though some hail 🫧 and a tornado 🌪 or two cannot be ruled out either.

Things quiet down briefly on Monday, before a renewed chance of showers and storms arrives Tuesday. We'll chat about that Monday though.

27/05/2024

🇺🇸 Memorial Day is not just a long weekend for barbecuing, it is a solemn day. Today is a day to honor the brave souls who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom. 🇺🇸

Showers are moving out this morning, but at least scattered showers and storms ⛈ are expected to re-develop this afternoon.

I hope you have a wonderful day relaxing, barbecuing between storms, or doing whatever it is you have planned. Please just take a moment to remember 🌺 the fallen heroes who made it possible for your freedom to enjoy the day off today! 🗽

25/05/2024

🇺🇸 Memorial Day Weekend Forecast 🇺🇸

🌡️Seasonable highs in the 60s and 70s are expected all three days. Sunday, the coolest temps will be in the southeast where a steady rain is expected.

🌦 Showers and storms are possible/likely all three days. If you have outdoor plans, make sure to keep an eye on your favorite radar source for any incoming storms.

⏱Saturday, the threat of storms will be greatest northwest of a Pipestone to the southern Twin Cities metro line. Sunday, it will be southeast of that line, and Monday, area-wide.

Have a great holiday weekend, friends!

24/05/2024

I'm looking for someone with extensive knowledge of coding using Python. Please PM me if you or someone you know does!
..I have some plans for this page utilizing it, but need someone's help executing said plans 😉

23/05/2024

Another day, another round of storms.

While there's a distinct possibility of severe weather, especially south of I-94, the primary focus will be pockets of heavy rainfall.

Rainfall of 0.25-0.50" are probable for much of the region, though given the nature of warm season thunderstorms, embedded swaths of 0.5-1.0" are likely. Unfortunately, trying to pinpoint those swaths with any degree of accuracy is nearly impossible.

Have a great evening, friends!

22/05/2024

Fortunately for our area, the storms yesterday didn't produce the high-end severe weather that we feared.

Folks to our south in Iowa weren't so lucky though. This video shot by Reed Timmer, is truly extraordinary and feels more like a movie than real life. Take the 7 minutes to watch this video, it's impressive to say the very least!

The most incredible footage ever captured by drone near Greenfield, Iowa with up-close helical suction vortex action. This tornado was very strong a...

21/05/2024

UPDATE: The threat for severe weather has passed and the watch has been canceled.

A potentially dangerous afternoon is ahead for some of us ! Sharing is caring today, friends!

A PDS tornado 🌪 watch has been posted for the southeastern third of the region. This stands for "Particularly Dangerous Situation" and is used only in the most extreme cases, when potential loss of life and property is at its peak!

Potential hazards in and near this watch include:

🌪 Tornadoes, with a few intense (EF2-EF5) tornadoes possible.
💨 Significant damaging winds to 90mph.
🫧 Extreme hail to softball (4") size.

If you live in or near the watch, begin your tornado preparations NOW! Have multiple ways of receiving warnings, know exactly where your tornado safe spot is, and be prepared to act quickly if a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your location! Treat ALL warnings as tornado warnings, as a tornado may develop at any time, with any storm today.

The reason I am particularly itchy and scratchy is that our local area will be in close proximity to the warm front and low pressure center. Both of these tend to be mechanisms for additional spin in the atmosphere. With the rest of the dynamics maximized, the ceiling is certainly high if storms can take advantage of the ingredients present!

Oh, and areas north and northwest of the current watch, you're not out of the woods. While severe weather is most likely in the watch area, some severe weather is possible a few counties outside of the watch. It would be wise for you to be taking your severe weather precautions now as well.

If you've followed me a long time, you know I rarely use the follow tag I used at the start of this post. Frankly, I find it annoying when pages do it, but I feel it's a necessity today.

Stay safe, everyone!

21/05/2024

So... About that post the other day when I said things were going to get active. Remember that? 😬 Yeah, we've got a lot to go over tonight.

First things first, a severe thunderstorm watch has been hoisted for southern parts of the area until midnight. While the main threats are hail and strong winds, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Keep an eye to the sky if you're in the watch area, and be prepared to head indoors, and away from windows until the storm passes.

Overnight, I expect storms to increase in coverage across the region. Any severe weather should remain within or very near the current watch area. Heavy rain is a possibility area-wide though.

We should see a lull in activity from late morning through early to mid afternoon. Renewed thunderstorm development is likely after 3pm, with some intense storms possible. The strongest activity will be in the southeast, where tornadoes, large hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. I'll be keeping a close eye on this tomorrow, but be sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings if you live in level 2 or 3 of the risk area.

Lastly, given expected rainfall amounts tonight and tomorrow, a flood watch has been posted for a large chunk of the region. While widespread rainfall totals will land in the 1-3" range, the concern is that some of this may fall in a very short time. If you live in a flood prone area, pay close attention to water levels tonight, and especially tomorrow.

I'll post as I am able to tomorrow, but be sure to have multiple ways of receiving the latest weather information. Keep an eye to the sky, use your head, and be safe!

19/05/2024

The days of dryness and drought are over, SCMWx family!

A period of very wet weather lies ahead for the next 7 days. Widespread 2-3" rainfall amounts likely, equating to anomalies of 1-2" above the weekly "norm." Given that this is the warm-season, at least localized swaths of 3-5" are likely due to thunderstorms.

Speaking of thunderstorms, raise your hand if you're a severe weather enthusiast...

👋

Despite repeated rounds of severe weather to our south, it's been very quiet locally. In fact, only a handful of severe weather has been reported for the entire state thus far. Don't worry, that's likely to change. Some of the years with quiet starts tend to feature very active June and July periods.

28/03/2024

The forecast the next five days is tame compared to what we saw over the previous five days.
..but who's complaining after that mess?

The general theme for the five day period will be below-average temperatures (especially so over the deepest snowpack), and periodic shots of precip as a couple of systems traverse the region.

The first system will arrive Friday with some light rain and snow. I'm expecting only light accumulations with this, and primarily near and north of I-94.

The second system arrives Easter Sunday with a more formidable threat of precipitation. While there's a lot of disagreement in model guidance, the greatest probability for rain and snow is currently south of US-212, as shown in the last image.

I'll be watching the Sunday-Monday system. Make the best of the last couple days of the week, friends!

24/03/2024

⚠️ SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AHEAD ⚠️

What looked to be a cut and dry storm just a couple days ago has become quite a messy thing for us. Thus, this is going to be a chaotic post, so stick with me.

Winter storm warnings, watches, and advisories are up for all but one county in the far southeast of the region. If I were a betting man (keep in mind, I've not yet won the Powerball jackpot 🤷‍♂️), I would think the watch will be upgraded to a warning this evening.

Snow has already begun for some this afternoon and evening. Off and on light snow will continue overnight tonight, with around an inch or less during the night. The "real" stuff arrives tomorrow, so let's break this down, shall we?

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I broke the precipitation types into zones. Everyone will see snow at the onset of the precipitation tomorrow, falling moderate to heavy at times, then transitioning according to the zone areas.

⬜️ Zone A: Those of you fortunate enough to find yourself in this pretty blue zone will see all snow. That's it. That's the story.

🟦 Zone B: Mostly snow is expected. However, freezing rain and sleet may mix in as the low pressure moves into southeastern Minnesota Monday evening. Should this occur, accumulations of both should be pretty light before changing back to snow.

🟪 Zone C: Snow will transition to plain rain from south to north Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday. However, precipitation may transition to or mix with freezing rain and sleet Monday evening into the overnight hours. As colder air wraps into the backside of the storm center Monday night into Tuesday morning, any wintry mix will transition back to snow. As much as 0.75-1.25" of rain may fall before the change back to snow!

🟩 Zone D: Precipitation will begin as snow, and transition to rain from north to south Sunday afternoon. Rain will continue through Monday night, before a transition back to snow occurs Tuesday morning. As with the previous zone, up to 1.25" of rain may fall before the changeover back to snow.

Precipitation will exit the region Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon, with dry conditions returning Tuesday night.

Oh... As if all of this wasn't enough, wind 🌬 will be an issue in zones A-C as well. Gusts up to 40mph could create blowing and drifting of the snow, even with it being a concrete-type snowfall.

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This was an exceedingly tough forecast to put together.

Even past the obvious conundrum of where rain/snow/wintry mix lines end up, compaction of the snow will be a significant factor for everyone. This be a wet and heavy snowfall, and is going to occur over a period of 36-48 hours. This means we will loose quite a bit of depth, as the weight of it causes it to compact and stay less fluffy.

Am I making sense? Or are you staring at your phone or computer screen like a lost puppy at this point?

All-in-all, given the lack of wintry weather across the region this winter, this is quite the exciting storm system! For those not quite excited that Old Man Winter is rearing his head, it won't last long. By the end of the week, temps will rebound back into the 30s and 40s with rain an increasing probability by Easter weekend.

Stay safe, everyone!

22/03/2024

For those of you who prefer my shorter posts, you're in luck, this one won't be nearly as long-winded as last night.

The snow began a bit earlier and further north today than I outlined in my post last night, and will continue to increase in intensity from northwest to southeast this evening.

Overall, the changes to the snowfall amounts were relatively minor. My forecast last night took into account a slight trend south in the model guidance. However, it appears it wasn't enough and some additional southern adjustments have been made. The winter weather advisory from the National Weather Service reflects this trend too.

Worthy of noting is the possibility for some localized 5-7" totals by morning within the heaviest band near a line from Wheaton to Buffalo.

Not a fan of the snow? Oh, just you wait darling! The Sunday through Tuesday storm is getting more and more interesting by the hour! I'll start focusing on that tomorrow evening. For now, stay safe on the roads tonight and tomorrow morning!

21/03/2024

I mean... I guess the groundhog was right? Outside of that freak snowstorm in mid-February, it was basically spring for February and most of March 🤷‍♂️
..what that heckin' pipsqueak failed to warn us about was that winter would return once spring arrived.

So the main points of interest are:

⏱ Light to moderate snow arrives tomorrow afternoon, especially after 6pm.

🌨 Snowfall totals will range from less than a half inch in the far southwest, to as much as 4-6" in the northeast.

⬆️ We continue to see an increasing trend in snowfall probability this weekend into next week. Probability for 12" or more has increased to as much as 60-80%.

If you have a short attention span, you may now return to the glass of wine 🍷 you've been dying to have since the kids got home and your favorite TV show. If you're interested in the nitty-gritty, read on!

🤓

The models have struggled with exactly how to handle this first system, leading to slightly lower confidence than usual at 24 hours out. Particularly, the handling of a secondary band of snow Friday morning that could be problematic in the southeast. That said, here's my thoughts as of now:

Snow will arrive from northwest to southeast tomorrow afternoon and evening. Generally speaking, the heaviest snow will arrive after 6pm. However, some light snow is probable south of the upper Minnesota River Valley early Thursday morning into the early afternoon.

The bulk of the snow should be wrapped up by the Friday morning rush hour commute, with only lingering snow showers or flurries. Unfortunately the damage will be done, and at least patchy slick spots are likely on roadways.

As far as snowfall totals go, here's what I'm thinking:

🔷 Southwestern areas will see less than an inch, with some areas only picking up a dusting.

🔶 Along and north of I-94, we'll see totals of 3-5", though there's a possibility we could see a narrow band of 5-7" totals.

🔻 Between these two areas, a widespread 1-3" will likely fall.

As in any snowfall forecast, there will be areas of higher and lower totals in the end. Unfortunately, technology has yet to advance to the levels depicted in a 1989 film starring Michael J Fox, so there will be errors in the end.

Lastly, snowfall amounts over the next week are starting to look impressive. The latest ensemble means suggest double digit snowfall amounts may be a real possibility for a large chunk of the area. This includes the snow tomorrow into Friday, though the heaviest amounts will likely come with a stronger storm Sunday into Tuesday.

19/03/2024

A period of wintry weather ❄️ looks to arrive just in time for the first few days of wint...

*checks notes*
..uh, springtime 🤔

What seems like a terrible joke on Mother Nature's part, is actually very true with a couple different storm systems to keep an eye on.

🔸 The first round of snow will be Thursday into Thursday night, with widespread accumulations of 1-3" likely for much of the region.

🔹 A much more impactful period of wintry weather may arrive later in the weekend and continue into early next week. This is when we could potentially (please note my use of the word POTENTIALLY) see a couple different rounds of snow across the area.

While it's far too early to get cute with details, model guidance has 70-90% probability of at least 6" of snow over the next 10 days for much of the region. Needless to say, that has my attention.

Stay tuned as we will undoubtedly see changes to this over the coming days!

10/02/2024

I'm not exactly going out on a limb by saying you don't need me to tell you it's been a record mild winter. But, in case you need to quantify such a thing...

The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index, or AWSSI, is a metric that takes into account temperature, snowfall, and longevity of snow on the ground. It's a good measure of how "harsh" winter has been. It speaks for itself, really.

And if this isn't enough for you, let's look at the top five warmest winters and their average temp to date (Dec. 1st - Feb. 9th):

1️⃣ 2023-2024; 29.5°F
2️⃣ 1877-1878; 27.8°F
3️⃣ 2011-2012; 26.0°F
4️⃣ 2001-2002; 26.0°F
5️⃣ 1930-1931; 25.1°F

In case you're not aware, the winter of 1877-1878 was dubbed, "The Year Without Winter", and we're 1.7°F warmer than THAT winter. That is what I call impressive!

Lastly, for those inquisitive minds...

If we look at the top 10th percentile of warm winters in Minneapolis, we can see that 63% of years had a colder 🔵 than average March. Based on current long range model guidance, I definitely side with a below-average temperature regime for March. We'll see how that evolves down the road!

24/12/2023

Just popping in to say hello, and wish you all a Merry Christmas and a very Happy New Year!

Several of you have reached out expressing concern and letting me know how much you miss my updates. Suffice it to say, this year was not kind to me, so words cannot express what that does to my heart! But, the wheels are in motion for a better 2024, so I WILL be back!
..and soon.

In the meantime, as we wrap up 2023 with the final holidays, I wish you the best!

Oh, and if you live or are traveling near or west of MN-4 for Christmas tomorrow, take it easy and give yourself plenty of time to arrive. Roads will be slick as precipitation is expected to fall as freezing rain and snow, at least for a time, before transitioning to rain from east to west.

22/08/2023

Is it hot out? Seems hot out.

The highest heat index I've seen thus far is 120°F near Mankato, with innumerable 110°F+ readings across the region. Unfortunately, we have another day of intense heat before more seasonable temperatures arrive. Hang in there, friends!

Need something cooler to think about? How about this... The stratospheric polar vortex is forecast to make its annual debut by Sunday morning!

03/08/2023

The Farmers Almanac released their winter outlook today.

These make me laugh.

What’s their next bombshell outlook going to say for our region? Summer is hot and humid?

27/07/2023

Today will carry the potential to be the hottest day of the year for the region. Actual air temperatures in the 90s will combine with high levels of humidity to create oppressive heat.

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For those under an advisory or warning, here's what you can expect today:

🟠 Advisory: Heat indices peaking near 105°F
🔴 Warning: Heat indices peaking near 110°F

Be sure to take frequent breaks, drink plenty of fluids, and stay out of the sun as much as possible if you are outdoors today.

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This evening, an incoming cold front will spark off at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Despite high to extreme levels of instability, there are a couple factors that should limit this from being a major event.

Nonetheless, keep an eye to the sky this afternoon and evening. If you live in or near the yellow shaded area, have several ways of receiving watch and warning information.

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It's been a rough year, which is why this is my first post in months. I've been taking time to focus on my businesses and working through things in my personal life. Things will turn around though, they always do, that's how life works. As Bob Ross says, "You need the dark in order to show the light."

11/04/2023

Checking out the visible satellite imagery this afternoon, a couple of interesting things are presented.

First, and quite obviously so, is the expansive area of snow cover. This is keeping temperatures lower, significantly so, compared with areas of little or no snow cover.
..If you can tell me where the snow pack is in the second image, I'll give you a cookie 🤣

Second, smoke from a new, but large, wildfire over north-central Nebraska is visible well over 100 miles northeast of the fire itself. This area is under a red flag warning, so I don't expect this will be a fire that is easily extinguished.

For those with minimal snow cover, it is an anomalously warm afternoon. This will continue to be the case the next couple of days. Enjoy the early summer-like warmth, friends!