SCMWeather

SCMWeather Accurate, easy to understand, no-hype, weather forecasts for southern Minnesota since 2011. I hope you will enjoy SCMWeather!

Follow along to stay updated on the latest weather to impact our corner of the Midwest! Questions are always welcome, so feel free to post them on the wall or in a personal message to me. And also, if you enjoy seeing my posts, be sure you share SCMWx with your family and friends!

28/04/2025

📢 5PM UPDATE 📢
Severe storms are moving through the region. More details in the first comment below!
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⚡️ POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER – PLEASE READ ⚡️This could be one of the most volatile severe weather setups w...
28/04/2025

⚡️ POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER – PLEASE READ ⚡️

This could be one of the most volatile severe weather setups we have seen in years around here.

For those who have followed me for a while, you know I don't throw words like this around lightly. I'm not here for clicks (trust me, Facebook pays me in pocket lint 🧦), I'm here to call it like I see it.

👉 A potentially significant outbreak of severe weather is expected this afternoon and evening, with threats including:

🌪️ Strong to intense tornadoes
🧊 Very large hail (2+" in diameter)
🌬️ Damaging winds

While there's still some uncertainty about exactly how it all plays out, if things come together just right... there is a very high ceiling today.

The morning storms are moving out and clouds are thinning. I expect partly sunny skies by late morning/early afternoon, with temps climbing into the mid to upper 70s, along with rising humidity. This will set the stage for a volatile atmosphere by mid-afternoon as a dryline/cold front approaches from the Dakotas.

After 3pm, storms are expected to fire near the front as it pushes east. Timing and exact placement are uncertain, but once storms form, they’ll rapidly become severe.

📈 Context:
In the past 13 years, this is only the 5th time a Level 4 tornado risk has been issued for Minnesota. You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find a Level 5 or higher risk. So, in essence, this is about as high of a risk as you'll see in our area.

Today's setup draws comparisons to other major, and historical, past events — including the March 29, 1998 outbreak, which decimated parts of Comfrey and St. Peter.

🛑 Bottom Line 🛑
This is not a typical severe weather day.
Review your tornado precautions NOW. 🏠🛑
Have multiple ways to get warnings. 📱📻
Know where to seek shelter whether you're home, at work, or traveling. 🚗🏢🏡

The atmosphere is as such that even one or two storms could turn today into a historic event. I'll have updates throughout the day (as work allows). Stay safe and stay tuned, friends!

28/04/2025

Significant tornado outbreak increasingly likely later today. Working on a full update now, stay tuned!

The threat of a severe weather outbreak on Monday continues to grow. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Moderate"...
27/04/2025

The threat of a severe weather outbreak on Monday continues to grow. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Moderate" risk, or a level 4 out of 5, of severe weather for eastern and southeastern Minnesota, which is exceptionally rare to see 3 days in advance.

In fact, looking at data available back to 2008, this is only the fourth time this risk area has appeared in Minnesota 3 days in advance, and we have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last such occurrence.

Now, that said, while the synoptic setup certainly points towards a substantial outbreak, including the potential for strong to violent tornadoes, I don't feel this is a slam dunk setup. Yet. There are still too many uncertainties, with the most likely issue being the strength of the cap overhead.

Like I said yesterday, a lot can and will change. All in all, it's a good idea to review your severe weather plans now and be ready for the possibility of rapidly changing conditions Monday afternoon.

I am becoming increasingly concerned that Monday could be a big day for severe weather in our area.We have a long way to...
25/04/2025

I am becoming increasingly concerned that Monday could be a big day for severe weather in our area.

We have a long way to go, and a lot can and will change. As it stands now though, the probability of severe weather continues to increase across much of the area. Even at this distance, the Machine Learning Model is already suggesting that significant severe weather is likely (indicated by the hatched area) for parts of the area.

Furthermore, analyzing the forecast synoptic setup reveals some big severe weather events have occurred from similar past setups across the Upper Midwest.

This is definitely a timeframe to be watching, and I'll be paying close attention to it as the weekend progresses. Stay tuned, friends!

Rapid thunderstorm development is expected later today across parts of the area, with some severe weather possible.Betwe...
17/04/2025

Rapid thunderstorm development is expected later today across parts of the area, with some severe weather possible.

Between 2-4pm, I expect thunderstorm development to occur in the western part of the 🟡 Level 2 area. As the afternoon and evening progresses, these storms will spread eastward with a continued threat of severe weather. Here are the expected threats with these storms:

🫧 Large hail to golf ball size
💨 Strong winds to 60mph
🌪 An isolated tornado or two
🌧 Localized flash flooding

The primary risk is large hail to golf ball size, though all types of severe weather are certainly on the table for today.

Work continues to be hectic as heck for me this month, so I may not have time to update later today. Be sure to keep an eye to the sky and turn to your favorite source of severe weather alerts should your hear or see threatening skies!

01/04/2025

Snow has arrived to the region.

Please see my comment below!
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March: It came in like a lamb and is going out like... well, technically still a lamb. 🐑 That's only because today happe...
31/03/2025

March: It came in like a lamb and is going out like... well, technically still a lamb. 🐑 That's only because today happens to be wedged between two big storm systems though. Go figure!

🌨 After a chilly but sunny day today, a low pressure system will develop over the Plains and head our way tomorrow, bringing a mix of snow and rain to the area. Precipitation will start as mostly snow, but as the system pulls in warmer air, expect a changeover to rain from south to north.

❄️ Several inches of snow are likely along and north of US-212, with lighter amounts to the south. Some areas could see a hefty 6-9"+, but the location of that is yet to be determined.

⛈ The good news is that the severe weather will stay south of us. So once the snow flips to rain, it's just going to be a cold, sloppy mess before some light snow wraps around on the backside of the storm.

The moral of the story here though is that if you have outdoor plans, maybe... don’t. Stay tuned for updates on this storm later today and make sure to let me know your glee or complaints with this sloppy mess on the way! 👇

30/03/2025

Forecast snow totals are quickly coming down this evening.

I expect totals to be at least half of what I forecast earlier today.

After record highs in the upper 80s yesterday, Mother Nature is hitting reverse today. Hard. Rain and drizzle are alread...
29/03/2025

After record highs in the upper 80s yesterday, Mother Nature is hitting reverse today. Hard. Rain and drizzle are already occurring for some and will spread across the region this afternoon into tonight.

From there, I expect everything except the kitchen sink to occur. Rain, ice, snow… you name it. The images here outline what to expect, but all it will take is a slight temp shift to shake things up from what you see here.

Worthy of noting is the uncertainty in the far southeast. Model guidance has been all over just how much of the rain changes over to snow Sunday evening. Again, a couple degrees will make all the difference in the world!

If you're in the ice/snow zones, take it slow as conditions will go downhill quickly, especially after sunset. 🚗 Stay safe, friends!

As discussed for several days now, the temperature gradient tomorrow across the region is going to be impressive. This i...
27/03/2025

As discussed for several days now, the temperature gradient tomorrow across the region is going to be impressive.

This is the blended forecast highs for the region, but my gut tells me we end up seeing a much sharper gradient setup with locations such as Alexandra, Little Falls, and Mora potentially only making it into the low 50s instead of near 60°F. Using the blended high temperatures was the safest bet at this point though, as it is still not clear where the front stalls out.

As the warm front lifts north in the morning, a period of locally dense fog is possible to its north, along with some very isolated showers and thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected, though some heavy downpours cannot be ruled out.

In the evening, the ingredients will be present for some feisty showers and storms across the southeastern portions of the area as the warm front heads south as a cold front. The biggest risk will be heavy downpours and large hail, though some gusty winds are possible as well. Worthy of noting is that this is a very conditional threat, and storm development is not even a guarantee!

An active and interesting weather pattern is setting up, friends!First up is Friday’s temperature rollercoaster I've bee...
27/03/2025

An active and interesting weather pattern is setting up, friends!

First up is Friday’s temperature rollercoaster I've been discussing this week, with a newly minted risk of isolated severe weather in the afternoon. I’ll dive into that later today.

Now, let’s talk about the weekend snow potential (because Old Man Winter just won’t let go this spring). Confidence in the details is a bit shaky thanks to some wild model shifts over the past 24 hours. But here’s what I can say about it:

❄️ A swath of accumulating snow is likely across the northwestern part of the area Saturday into Saturday night, especially near the high-probability zone on this map. Early estimates would suggest 1-3", but that will likely have to be updated as we get closer.

❄️ A secondary round of snow may develop over the southeast Sunday into Monday. Unfortunately, confidence in that setup is quite low for now.

Stay tuned for updates as the forecast gets clearer, as figuring out where this snow is going to fall will take some patience! Lastly, don’t forget to like & share to keep your friends ahead of the forecast! ❄️

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