Derek Centrone - MediaRology and Chasing (2024)

08/06/2024

Week 2: Second Atlantic hurricane season briefing:

Chances of development:

Atlantic: Low

Caribbean: Medium

Gulf of Mexico: Medium

Summary:

Conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for tropical development across all regions. Tropical development is still not expected due to conditions remaining marginal at best despite much improvement.

An extratropical cyclone is expected to form over the Caribbean later this week, and is expected to move towards the continental United States by later this week into early next week. While it may pick up tropical characteristics, it is expected to not develop into a tropical system. As of right now, heavy rain producing flooding seems to be the most probable threat with this system

Briefing for weather geeks:

The positive phase of the Global Scale Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) dipole is expected to become more pronounced in the gulf region into later this week. This environment of upper divergence, coupled with warm water temperature and increasing low/mid-level moisture content will aid in deeper convection as the week goes on. A 60+ knot anticyclonically curved subtropical jet still exists over most of the Gulf of Mexico. This will continue to keep the Caribbean and Gulf region heavily sheared which will significantly inhibit tropical development.

A surface low is expected to develop over the Caribbean by late this week, and will stay extratropical, with possible hybrid/tropical warm core characteristics as it moves towards the CONUS, most likely impacting Florida. The positioning of this low under an area of anticyclonically curved upper jet diffluence will aid in venting, enabling deeper convection around the low. This jet, despite aiding in venting, will shear the system overall, preventing organization into a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to remain elongated, with convection concentrated around the outside of the system.

Captions on images describe what each image shows.

07/06/2024

Area to watch this evening into tonight:

Supercells are starting to form along a surface frontal system/triple point in northern Nebraska and are expected to increase in coverage as the surface low ejects southeastward later into the evening. Models are showing low level dewpoints being mixed out, leading to these supercells to mostly stay elevated, which often results in severe wind and large to very large hail being the main threat. some of these stronger cells may be able to become surface based, in which case a tornado or two could be possible as well, especially with earlier cells.

07/06/2024

Before posting a weekly update on the current conditions in the tropics tomorrow, I wanted to do an informational post to answer some common questions I’ve seen on other posts.

1. Model prediction:

Models are a very good source of information regarding what the atmosphere can look like in the future, and what systems can do. With that being said, they are another tool in the toolbox. It is important while forecasting to cross check models, especially ones that show strong storm development with current conditions, and other models showing expected atmospheric conditions to know if it is even possible for a storm of that magnitude to form. Often times models such as the GFS will over emphasize a system, then slowly dial the system in as it gets closer in time, showing a more realistic storm.

2. What kinds of storms can form in the Tropics?

While most people know of hurricanes and tropical storms, these are not the only kinds of storms that can form. The tropics extratropical cyclones are some of the more common storm systems that form in the gulf. These are what cause most severe weather systems across the United States. These are common around early and late season, since they do not require the specific ingredients, such as low shear and warm water to form. These storms can be known as Nor’easters. These systems are NOT named, but can be just as strong, bringing similar threats.

There are also hybrid systems that have both extratropical and tropical characteristics. They can form in conditions that can almost support tropical formation, where warm water and other conditions exist, but other conditions prevent full tropical formation.

Knowing the difference between these systems is important, and hopefully this post helps to show that not all storms form hurricanes, and not all models are accurate.

06/06/2024

Two areas to watch for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight:

Area 1:
A loosely organized line of storms is developing across most of upstate New York into parts of northeastern Pennsylvania ahead of an advancing frontal system/triple point. This line is expected to continue east-northeastward towards portions of western New England by later this evening. While a relatively weak low level jet will somewhat limit low level shear, organization into strong to severe clusters and supercells is expected as these storms move toward a more unstable airmass over eastern portions of New York and Pennsylvania into New England. While strong to severe wind and small hail are the main threats with these storms, a low but nonzero threat for a brief tornado spin up or two is possible with any supercells that are able to develop.

Area 2:

Further south, isolated storm clusters are expected to form along an advancing cold front across most of the mid Atlantic, into the Carolinas. Similar threats are possible to the northern mode, with strong outflow wind and small hail being the main threat for these storms.

06/06/2024

A confirmed tornado is on the ground heading into Baltimore, Maryland. If you are in the path of this storm, take cover now and take all warnings seriously!

04/06/2024

Closely watching the potential for a severe weather event across most of central Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Supercells are expected to form along an advancing dry line triple point and outflow boundary from this morning’s storms and quickly intensify into a well organized MCS, pushing southeast towards the OKC metro. Very strong wind (80+ mph), large hail, and a few tornadoes, a couple strong can be expected with this storm. The highest chance for a strong tornado exists just northwest of the Oklahoma City metro as of right now. More updates to come later.

01/06/2024

Week 1. First Atlantic hurricane season briefing:

Chances of development:

Atlantic: Low

Caribbean: Low

Gulf of Mexico: Low

Summary:
While tropical waves are starting to become stronger and more frequent, conditions still remain unfavorable for tropical development throughout the rest of this week due to high shear and unfavorable upper air patterns.

Briefing for weather geeks:

While ocean temperatures are rising, a heavily sheared environment still exists across the Atlantic basin and Gulf of Mexico. This shear, coupled with an upper air pattern that still supports upper confluence/subsidence, will likely inhibit widespread any tropical waves from supporting tropical or subtropical development. While we will see the positive phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation dipole reach the Atlantic basin by mid week, this isn’t expected to enhance convection on tropical waves enough to cause concern.

Captions on images describe what each image shows. Every image is from mid week:

31/05/2024

Since tomorrow marks the beginning of hurricane season, I will start doing weekly updates on the tropics. More updates will be provided for individual storms as needed as the season progresses.

30/05/2024

PDS TORNADO WARNING:

Another strong and damaging tornado has been reported heading southeast towards Midkiff, TX. If you are in the path of this storm, take shelter and listen to all warnings!

30/05/2024

TORNADO EMERGENCY!

A tornado emergency is in place for the previously warned storm southwest of China Grove, TX. If you are in the path of this storm, you need to be in shelter NOW!

30/05/2024

PDS TORNADO WARNING!

*EXTENDED TOWARDS CHINA GROVE*

A damaging tornado is on the ground between Odessa and Midland, TX, headed southeast. If you are in the path of this storm, take shelter and follow all warnings!

30/05/2024

Area to watch into later tonight:

Supercells are starting to fire off ahead of both a dry line, and outflow boundary across most of southwestern Texas. Storms are expected to increase in both coverage and intensity later into this evening as these two forcing mechanisms meet. Severe wind, very large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected with some of these supercells, especially along the circled area. If you are in this area, stay tuned for all local watches and warnings.

30/05/2024

A very strong tornado warned supercell with very large hail and strong straight line wind is heading into Clovis and Portales, New Mexico. If you are in the path of this storm, make sure you are in shelter and listening for all warnings. This is a very powerful cell!

28/05/2024

Throwback to a crazy chase back in 2023:

Christmas, Florida supercells with 2 inch hail. Briefly tried to drop a tornado. Originally posted on my other account, East Florida Storm Chasing

27/05/2024

NEW TORNADO EMERGENCY!

A very large and damaging tornado is heading towards Morton’s Gap and Earlington, KY! If you are in the path of this storm you need to be in shelter!

27/05/2024

TORNADO EMERGENCY!

*NOW EXTENDED TOWARDS MORTONS GAP AND EARLINGTON, KY*

A tornado emergency is in effect. A large and very destructive tornado is moving toratds Princeton, KY. If you are in the path of this storm, seek shelter immediately!

26/05/2024

PDS TORNADO WARNING!

A damaging tornado is heading east towards Van Buren, Missouri. If you are in the path of this storm, head local warnings and take shelter immediately!

26/05/2024

PDS TORNADO WARNING!

A damaging tornado has been reported heading into Creal Springs, IL. If you are in the path of this storm, head local warnings and take shelter!

26/05/2024

Damaging tornado on the ground in the southern suburbs of St. Louis. If you are in the path of this tornado, head all warnings and take cover now!

26/05/2024

Another regional severe weather outbreak is underway across most of the Midwest:

Airmass recovery after previous storms today has allowed for widespread destabilization to occur ahead of the advancing cold front this evening. Supercells are expected to fire across southern Missouri through southern Indiana within the next several hours, and push southeast along the cold front/surface low triple point while increasing in coverage. A significant tornado threat is likely while these supercells are able to stay isolated, before becoming a more linear straight line wind threat later tonight.

Be weather aware and head all watches and warnings!

26/05/2024

A very rare anticyclonic “backwards rotating” tornado is also on the ground along with the larger PDS warned tornado near Decatur, Arkansas:

26/05/2024

ANOTHER PDS TORNADO WARNING:

A large and damaging tornado is heading into Decatur, Arkansas moving east. Pay attention to all warnings and local media.

26/05/2024

Yet another PDS tornado warning:

A confirmed tornado is on the ground over Claremore, Oklahoma moving eastward. If you are in the path of this storm, tune into local media and head all warnings.

26/05/2024

PDS TORNADO WARNING!

A good example of how a cap cannot stop all tornadoes:

A strong tornado is on the ground south of Valley Vew, Texas, in a capped region, heading southeastbound. If you are in the path of this storm, make sure you are following all warnings issued.

26/05/2024

UPDATE:

The cap seems to be back over most of Oklahoma and into parts of Kansas. Storms will now need to fight through this cap in order to produce tornadoes. Even though capping is back across these regions, this does NOT mean the threat is over. Particularly into southern and eastern Kansas, a shear-driven tornado threat still exists into tonight, with the possibility of strong tornados. Stay safe, and stay weather aware. Even though an area is capped, evelvated thunderstorms with very large hail and strong wind are still very capable of surviving, even if the tornado threat is diminished.

The areas shaded in blue are capped, red circle is where the highest tornado threat continues into tonight.

25/05/2024

A potentially significant severe weather outbreak is underway across most of the central plains into the southern plains.

Cells are already starting to erupt across northern Texas ahead of the advancing dry line, and are expected to increase in coverage into this evening. Later on this evening, supercell coverage will increase across the dry line. Very strong destabilization should allow these cells to intensify rapidly. These strong supercells will have the ability to produce multiple strong to violent tornadoes, giant hail, and severe wind as they push eastward across the region.

Area 1. Cells firing in central into northern Texas can pose a risk for all modes of severe weather, including large hail and tornadoes, even a strong tornado or two.

Area 2: Later this evening, more widespread supercell coverage should impact Oklahoma and Kansas, including the Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Wichita metro areas. These cells will be capable of producing strong to violent tornadoes and very large hail.

24/05/2024

Areas to watch into this evening:

1. Supercells are already starting to form along the dry line/surface low triple point south of the Dallas Metro. Very high instability will allow these cells to intensify quickly, and increase in coverage into the evening. Very large hail and severe wind will be the main threat, but a couple tornadoes are possible on a few of the stronger cells.

2. As the surface low pushes northward into northeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, supercells are expected to fire off north of this low pressure center, generating another hail/ severe wind risk. While a tornado is possible, conditions for them are not as favorable as they are on the northern Texas mode.

23/05/2024

Area to watch into tonight:

A line of supercells is expected to form over far western Nebraska this evening ahead of advancing cold front, and is expected to increase in coverage, eventually turning into a well organized line by later tonight as it pushes eastward. While severe wind and very large hail are the main threats for this system, a few tornados cannot be ruled out, especially on some of the earlier cells in western Nebraska.

23/05/2024

Area to watch over the next several hours.

A developing MCV will continue to strengthen as it pushes eastward from parts of Pennsylvania, eventually into southern New England. Modest to locally moderate destabilization is expected to occur out ahead of this system as the morning goes on, allowing for convection to locally deepen. While deeper convection is expected to remain relatively isolated, strong to severe wind and hail are expected with embedded areas of stronger convection within this system as it pushes northeastward.

22/05/2024

Areas to watch for today’s severe setup:

Area 1:

Strong to severe thunderstorms are already developing across southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas along the south side of a cold front stretching across most of the central US. This storm coverage is expected to continue into this afternoon as the front advances across the region further into Ark/La/Tex region. Large hail and strong to severe wind will be the primary threat with these storms, with a tornado or two possible on storms that are able to take advantage of locally greater shear profiles.

Area 2:

As the cold front advances eastward, remaining cells are expected to reorganize in eastern Arkansas into a small line and push across most of Tennessee into Kentucky. Similarly to the last setup, mostly strong to severe wind and hail will be the main threat for these storms with a small chance for a tornado.

Area 3:

Airmass recovery behind morning thunderstorms is expected with greater airmass destabilization occurring into this afternoon. This coupled with locally favorable shear conditions could lead to a tornado or two on supercells that are able to strengthen. Strong winds are also expected with any of these supercells.

Derek Centrone - MediaRology and Chasing

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