Loving this rain. Palmerston and Batchelor already over the 50mm mark at 7.15am. Sorry northern suburbs. Darwin is at 16.2mm.
71mm Moulden north.
Cyclone Watch issued this morning for Groote Eylandt and Borroloolla. #2 issued 10.34am has the low expected to go to Cat 1 by Saturday morning in the GOC on its way south.
The numbers-
Friday 7.18am 104kmhr on Elcho Island as the low headed toward Gove.
9am 122mm @ Elcho
160mm at Oenpelli with a further 9 stations above 100mm.
11.16am 996.4hPa at Gove
1.34pm this radar
Its a spinny boi!
Some rotation, although not very organised, located between Darwin and Cape Fourcroy on the Tiwi Islands.
At 3.30pm the BOM MSLP map had a 1001hPa tropical low situated west of the Tiwis and north of the WA boarder. The 4 day outlook expects the low to move west by 10am Thursday to be of the coast of central Top End. So looks like we caught it on radar about to skirt across the north of Darwin Harbour. Woo wee.
In the last 24hrs Darwin has recorded a 2.6hPa drop to indeed confirm the low on approach. I'll expect to be woken by rain overnight because that's what the frogs are singing.
How's that rain in Palmerston and surrounds today! Bit of Low trough action with the hint of circulation on the WA/NT boarder.
The action may ramp up next week north of WA with the MJO showing good signs for increased wet weather in the next 2 weeks for our last good chance of monsoonal activity for this Wet Season.
Nice bit of rain that came in after 3am.
19mm Darwin Airport
27mm Karama
31mm Pinelands
49mm McMinns Lagoon
How's the rain! Batchelor and Moulden north around the 25mm mark at 5.40pm. Very heavy on the drive home too.
How's this rain! Beautiful. Seeing some.big totals with Darwin airport just cracking the 160mm mark and Rapid Creek on the brink of hitting minor flood level (pic in comments).
**update - streets underwater on Bagot Rd with Rapid Creek at Moderate Flood level and rising. Cars are now breaking down.
Incoming.
Last 8hrs of 512km radar.
Will mainly hit the Noonamah area from 11.20am but the back end may come around for the n'burbs.
Last 8hrs of 512km radar to 8.06am.
Marker represents location of low from 3.30am MSLP map and best guess from radar at 8.06am.
Please see previous post this morning for more info on the low.
If your good at your pause game, you'll notice very little rain for Darwin when the gusts hit at 4.33am and 5.17am.
The Low Intensifies
Last 8 hours of 512km radar to 7.31am.
Marker represents best guess of location of low. This matches BOMs MSLP map issued at 3.30am which shows a 3hPa drop in 24hrs to 997hPa.
Peak.gusts today-
78kmhr 12.06am Darwin wharf
76kmhr 7.14am Darwin Airport.
78kmhr 1:06pm Charles Point
87kmhr 1:42pm Middle Point
80kmhr 3:21pm Point Stuart
1 flight to Cairns for 7.30am delayed to this afternoon whilst other flights request you to check. All flights prior to 7am departed on time.
Winds are expected to slightly increase for Monday and Tuesday so with heavy rain expect gusts in excess of 70kmhr but less than 90kmhr. Winds will then reduce through to Friday but still enough to be enjoyable. During this period be aware that the ground will be water soaked and tree root systems fragile, so stay away from large trees during periods of rain/wind for your safety.
On set of the Monsoon ramps up.
Here is the last 8hrs of radar to 7.41am from theweatherchaser.
The marker represents my best guess of the low, however it is currently a broad area of low so there is no "centre". This marker also correlates to the latest BOM MSLP map issued at 3.30am indicating it is now at 1004hPa, meaning that it is still another 7hPa off for consideration of a cyclone (note- pressure isn't what defines a cyclone, but is closely correlated).
Interesting to note that with the current models this morning, those that have the best hold on matching what the radar "actual" conditions are, IMHO, is the GFS with the ECMWF model a close match also. The ACCESS model is pitching it too far north currently. So at this time, best to follow the GFS and ECMWF. Of those 2 models, they push the low over the Top End while the Australian ACCESS model likes to to push the low WSW over the Kimberlies and progress into a cyclone whilst the 1st two have the low meander into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Even though this may be the most likely destination, it is too much variability to even say what will happen outside of 3 days. Safe to say, there will be no cyclone by Saturday for Darwin (ie shop normal people). However, it is likely that Darin will go from the current still conditions to more windy conditions Saturday night into Monday purely because if the surrounding monsoon conditions that surround the Top End waters with BOMs 4 day outlook still anticipating the monsoon trough to be on our doorstep as of Thursday. Given the wet conditions Wednesday morning, I say it's about time.
As of 2.10pm CST (Qld 30min in front of Darwin), Cat 2 (as at 2pm) TC Jasper is already hitting with Cat 1 strength winds to Low Isles (34km south of Cape Tribulation) with gusts to 113kmhr at 2.01pm EST and 999hPa.
Looks to be a direct hit in Cape Tribulation in the comming minutes and hours.
3.28pm est 115kmhr at Low Isles
4pm est Low Isles 998.2hPa and dropping
9am 14/12/23 Yandill (north of Cairns) 624mm - now the 2nd highest December rainfall for any place in December on record (beating 593.1mm 7/12/1964 at Macknade Sugar Mill).
2pm and heavy rain for the top 1/2 of Palmerston with a couple of close lightning strikes near Gateway.
Well this was exciting to see this morning.
4hr radar image to 7.30am. It's moving really slow but it is heading in our direction.
I got rain in Moulden. Yay!
Hope everyone out at Fly Creek are being safe. This fire south of Old Bynoe Rd since just before 10.20am this morning and still going strong with the south easterlies.
Some relief will come once the sea breeze hits and the easterlies die down, which may not occur until after 6 pm.
