Eye On The Sky

17/07/2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Southern New Hampshire
Northern and Central New Jersey
Southeast New York
Eastern Pennsylvania
Southern Vermont
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 100 PM
until 800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will intensify through the
afternoon, with the strongest storms posing a risk of damaging wind
gusts and some hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west of
Wilmington DE to 30 miles west northwest of Concord NH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

17/07/2024

***DAMAGING WIND THREAT AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING***

Mesoscale Discussion 1666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...Eastern PA/northern NJ into western New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 171627Z - 171830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat will increase this afternoon. One
or more watches will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating is underway from parts of the
Mid Atlantic into western New England, to the east of an extensive
cloud shield that is moving eastward across western/central NY/PA
and WV. A seasonably deep upper-level trough will move eastward
across the lower Great Lakes and Northeast through the day, while an
MCV embedded in the larger-scale trough will move from WV toward the
Mid Atlantic. Cumulus is gradually building from east-central PA
into southeast NY, and a general increasing in storm development and
coverage is expected with time this afternoon.

Midlevel lapse rates are weak (as noted on regional 12Z soundings),
but continued heating will support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg
with time. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support 30-40 kt of
effective shear, sufficient for some storm organization. Multiple
storm clusters and possibly a couple of supercells may evolve with
time, with steepening low-level lapse rates supporting a primary
threat of damaging wind. Some threat for isolated hail and/or a
brief tornado is also possible if any supercells can be sustained.
One or more watches will likely be needed this afternoon to cover
the damaging-wind threat.

10/07/2024

***FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS EXPANDED***

The lowermost and rightmost segment was just issued. Here is the text that accompanies it:

--------------------------

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Addison County in central Vermont...
Northwestern Orange County in central Vermont...
Washington County in central Vermont...
Caledonia County in northeastern Vermont...
Southwestern Essex County in northeastern Vermont...
Southwestern Orleans County in northeastern Vermont...
Southeastern Chittenden County in northwestern Vermont...
Southern Lamoille County in northwestern Vermont...

* Until 1230 AM EDT.

* At 638 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is
0.5 to 1 inch in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing
or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Barre, Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Lyndon, Middlebury, Morrisville,
East Montpelier, Barre City, E F Knapp State Airport, Barre Town,
Berlin, Calais, Middlesex, Plainfield, Websterville, Worcester,
Williamstown, Marshfield, Northfield Village and Marshfield
Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4427 7276 4440 7261 4444 7282 4457 7281
4456 7247 4459 7233 4455 7192 4444 7166
4440 7179 4435 7181 4434 7185 4432 7203
4427 7207 4425 7206 4382 7333 4396 7341
4413 7301

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1 INCH IN 1 HOUR

10/07/2024

***FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS***

Pictured are the two Flash Flood Warnings that have so far been issued. The detailed for both are listed below, in the order of issuance. More are likely to follow overnight.

---------------------------------

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
350 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

Flash Flood Warning for...
Essex County in northern New York...
South Central Franklin County in northern New York...

Until 945 PM EDT.

At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is
0.5 to 1.5 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing
or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Lake Placid, Saranac Lake, Wilmington, Elizabethtown, Keene,
Minerva, Newcomb, Mount Marcy, Keene Valley, Schroon Lake, Jay In
Essex County, North Elba, North Hudson, Mount Van Hoevenberg,
Tahawus, Mount Van Hoevenburg Recreation Area, St. Huberts,
Underwood, Schroon Falls and Ray Brook.

PRECAUTIONARYPREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 7411 4444 7360 4380 7353 4374 7406
4380 7405 4383 7415 4381 7421 4393 7434
4397 7426 4412 7428 4410 7453

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

----------------------------------------

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
556 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Essex County in northern New York...
Northwestern Addison County in central Vermont...
Northwestern Washington County in central Vermont...
Southern Chittenden County in northwestern Vermont...
Southwestern Lamoille County in northwestern Vermont...

* Until midnight EDT tonight.

* At 556 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate
is 0.5 to 1 inch in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing
or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Vergennes, Moriah, Crown Point, Westport, Monkton, Monkton Boro,
Monkton Ridge, Mt. Philo State Park, Ferrisburg, New Haven,
Waltham, Bristol, Ferrisburgh, Charlotte, Hinesburg, Starksboro,
Kingsland Bay State Park, St. George, Weybridge and Panton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4417 7357 4428 7331 4446 7292 4440 7262
4425 7279 4416 7295 4406 7315 4390 7354

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1 INCH IN 1 HOUR

30/06/2024

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Gray ME
215 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The National Weather Service in Gray Maine has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Grafton County in northern New Hampshire...

* Until 300 PM EDT.

* At 214 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Haverhill, or
16 miles southwest of Littleton, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Bethlehem, Lincoln, Haverhill, Franconia, Woodstock, Lisbon, Bath,
Benton, Easton, Livermore, Landaff, Sugar Hill, Hart`s Location,
Waterville Valley, Lyman, Monroe, and Thornton.

This includes Interstate 93 between mile markers 98 and 118.

This also includes...
Franconia Notch, Mount Moosilauke, Cannon Mountain, North Twin
Mountain, and Franconia Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4405 7206 4406 7207 4408 7204 4408 7203
4409 7204 4410 7203 4411 7206 4413 7203
4419 7206 4422 7205 4427 7158 4425 7157
4426 7147 4422 7142 4397 7140 4403 7208
4404 7208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 267DEG 35KT 4413 7200

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

30/06/2024

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Orange County in central Vermont...
South central Caledonia County in northeastern Vermont...
East central Washington County in central Vermont...

* Until 230 PM EDT.

* At 150 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over East Orange,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

* Locations impacted include...
Barre, Barre Town, Bradford, Orange, Topsham Four Corners,
Washington, Wells River Village, Websterville, Corinth, Newbury,
Topsham, Newbury Village, Groton Village, Ryegate, Barre City,
Groton, Plainfield, Williamstown, Wells River, and East Ryegate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4408 7204 4406 7207 4402 7208 4401 7211
4399 7211 4407 7251 4422 7250 4422 7205
4419 7207 4413 7203 4411 7206 4410 7205
4410 7203 4409 7205 4408 7203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 279DEG 26KT 4412 7238

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

30/06/2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Maine
New Hampshire
Eastern Vermont
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon
while moving quickly eastward. Scattered severe/damaging winds up to
60-70 mph should be the main threat, but isolated hail around 1-1.5
inches in diameter may occur with any supercell. A brief tornado
also appears possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest
of Caribou ME to 20 miles southwest of Portsmouth NH. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

23/06/2024

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
451 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
South central Lamoille County in northwestern Vermont...
East central Chittenden County in northwestern Vermont...
Northwestern Washington County in central Vermont...

* Until 515 PM EDT.

* At 451 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Waterbury Village, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Montpelier, East Montpelier, Stowe, Duxbury, Worcester, Middlesex,
Moretown, Waterbury, and Waterbury Village around 455 PM EDT.
Calais around 500 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Waterbury Center, North Moretown, North Duxbury, Adamant, Mount
Worcester, and Putnamville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

23/06/2024

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
444 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northern Washington County in central Vermont...
Western Caledonia County in northeastern Vermont...
East Central Chittenden County in northwestern Vermont...
Southern Lamoille County in northwestern Vermont...

* Until 745 PM EDT.

* At 444 PM EDT, Thunderstorms producing heavy rain in steep terrain
is driving flash flooding in the vicinity of Mount Mansfield.
Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall
rate is 1 to 2 inches in 30 minutes. Flash flooding is already
occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Morrisville, Worcester, Stowe, Middlesex, Morristown, Elmore,
Morrisville Village, Waterbury, Waterbury Village, Calais, East
Montpelier, Moretown, Hyde Park, Woodbury, Wolcott, Underhill
State Park, Duxbury, Bolton, Cambridge and Underhill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

23/06/2024

***TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM***

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Massachusetts
Western Maine
New Hampshire
Northeast New York
Vermont

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until
800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across eastern
New York and track eastward across the watch area through the day.
Supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are
expected.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Saranac Lake NY
to 25 miles south southeast of Augusta ME. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

23/06/2024

***THREAT OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING***

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1382.html

23/06/2024

***TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY***

Some clearing is now working in from New York State. Even partial sunshine today will rapidly destabilize the atmosphere, aided by very warm and humid air that will enter along with a warm front, and by unseasonably strong low pressure tracking just north of the international border.

The latest severe outlook from the Storm Prediction Center places much of out forecast area in an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms today. It is rare that an enhanced risk is noted in New England. Within this area, any storms that form are thought to have a 30% chance of wind damage generally, and a 10% chance of generating a tornado. Pay close attention to sky conditions today, and have a plan ready to seek shelter quickly. This would ideally take you to a central and windowless room of structure or, better yet, a basement. The risk of severe storms and/or tornadoes will probably carry into the evening.

“...Northeast/New England...An active severe-weather day still expected regionally. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will advect northward, and in the wake of morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Strong deep-layer shear of 45-60 kt will support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, some hail and a few tornadoes are all expected.

A corridor of locally greater severe risk remains apparent across portions of southern Maine, VT, NH and west-central Massachusetts. this is were forecast soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes will exist. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening.”

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

08/04/2024

ECLIPSE DAY FORECAST: Sunny this morning, then high clouds advancing from the southwest, likely reaching Burlington, central Vermont, and southern New Hampshire from late morning to early afternoon, with patchy high clouds or clear skies farther to the north and east. Highs from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Winds becoming northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

08/02/2024

February's reputation for snow is well founded. Of the winter months, more snow fall per day than any other month in most locations. The reasons generally make themselves obvious in the course of a typical February. The sub-zero cold in the early stages of the month might seem to defy the lengthening days, but with snow cover reaching its greatest extent across the North American continent, and nights still
considerably longer than the daylight, cold air is still being manufactured in great quantities. Yet the sun does climb higher and last longer in the afternoon skies, imparting meager warmth here, but a lush rise in temperatures in the southern states. These two - growing warmth in the south and deep cold in the north - inevitably meet in the middle, forging great storms and their consequential output of heavy snow.

15/11/2023

Will the winter be mild or fierce? We do our best to analyze global patterns and regional trends to bring you a daily and weekly local forecast. If we could read the future by the coloring of wooly bears, we would!

The tiger moth caterpillar, with its black- and rust-colored bands, has long been thought to be a predictor of upcoming winter weather. More likely, the coloring on these caterpillars shows what the previous months' weather and conditions were like.

27/07/2023

***FLOOD WATCH FOR VT AND NH THROUGH EVENING***
***HEAT ADVISORY SOUTHERN NH NOON TO 8 PM***
Thunderstorms may produce heavy to torrential rain, resulting in sudden, rapid rises in streams and rivers. Storms may also produce strong winds and hail in southern areas. More sun, hotter Friday. More at https://fairbanksmuseum.org/eye-on-the-sky/

21/07/2023

***FLOOD WATCH FOR VT AND EASTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT***
Showers and thunderstorms with potential downpours today and tonight and locally strong winds and frequent this afternoon and evening. https://fairbanksmuseum.org/eye-on-the-sky/

18/07/2023

***FLASH FLOOD WARNING UPGRADED - LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OCCURING OR EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA***

RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT-
520 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2023
..FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN RUTLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL WINDSOR COUNTIES...

AT 520 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS,
URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHESTER, LUDLOW, LUDLOW VILLAGE, ANDOVER, CAVENDISH, WESTON,
BALTIMORE, MOUNT HOLLY, READING, PLYMOUTH, PROCTORSVILLE,
GASSETTS, SIMONSVILLE, WHITESVILLE, CAVENDISH CENTER AND TYSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 4347 7272 4344 7255 4323 7263 4322 7269
4323 7271 4324 7276 4326 7282 4330 7282

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

18/07/2023

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
507 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2023

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...
SOUTH CENTRAL WINDSOR COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT.

* AT 507 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN
AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHESTER, LUDLOW, LUDLOW VILLAGE, ANDOVER, CAVENDISH, WESTON,
BALTIMORE, MOUNT HOLLY, READING, PLYMOUTH, PROCTORSVILLE,
GASSETTS, SIMONSVILLE, WHITESVILLE, CAVENDISH CENTER AND TYSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 4347 7272 4344 7255 4323 7263 4322 7269
4323 7271 4324 7276 4326 7282 4330 7282

18/07/2023

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0758
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
157 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...Upstate New York, far western Vermont

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181756Z - 182200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage this
afternoon and then train to the northeast. Rainfall rates may
exceed 2"/hr at times, resulting in 1-2" of rain with locally
higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery this afternoon clearly depicts
a favorable setup for ascent to drive convection. A shortwave is
evident lifting northward across PA while high-level cirrus racing
northward indicates the presence of an intensifying jet streak
arcing into Canada. At the surface, WPC analyzed a cold front
moving across Lakes Erie and Ontario, with nearly unidirectional
850-300mb flow downstream into the warm sector. This flow is
helping to draw SBCAPE above 1500 J/kg, and PWs of 1.3-1.5 inches,
above the 75th percentile for the date according to the SPC
sounding climatology, northward. The overlap of this robust
synoptic ascent and favorable thermodynamics is resulting in
increasing coverage of thunderstorms across Upstate New York this
afternoon.

During the next few hours, there is good agreement among the
simulated reflectivity from the various high-res members in an
expansion of convective coverage. This is reasonable based on the
continued overlap of impressive ascent atop favorable
thermodynamics. Some subtle enhancement in ascent due to more
intense diffluence aloft and increasing convergence ahead of the
cold front could strengthen convection as well, and the HREF
indicates the probability of 1"/hr and 2"/hr rates reaching 40%
and 15%, respectively. 0-6km mean winds will remain progressive at
20-25 kts, but will continue to be aligned to the approaching
front and with the Corfidi vectors. This suggests at least short
term training is possible as storms build back into the
instability and track northeast within the unidirectional flow.
Effective bulk shear reaching up to 30 kts could also help
organize storms into multi-cell clusters, both causing brief
upticks in rainfall rates but also lengthening the duration of
heavy rain in some areas. Where this occurs, total rainfall could
exceed 2 inches.

7-day rainfall according to AHPS has been 150-300% of normal
across the eastern half of Upstate NY, but generally less than
normal from the eastern shore of Lake Ontario and points west.
This suggests the greater flash flood risk will be across the more
saturated soils which are noted by USGS streamflows reaching above
the 90th percentile and very low FFG, especially in the Catskills
and Adirondacks. Where any short term training of these heavy
rates occurs, flash flooding is possible, but will be most likely
atop the most vulnerable soils and within sensitive terrain
features.

Weiss

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 45307308 45067226 44797254 44367310 43567378
42807424 42347448 42087510 42107624 42107726
42337789 42757801 43237771 43467719 43687678
44097647 44437618 44777550 45227448

18/07/2023

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
109 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2023

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GRAFTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT.

* AT 109 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE FALLEN. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE IS 1 TO 3 INCHES IN 1
HOUR. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN
AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
LEBANON, LITTLETON, BETHLEHEM, LINCOLN, HANOVER, HAVERHILL,
ENFIELD, CANAAN, FRANCONIA AND GROTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 93 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 93 AND 129.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING REC LOCATIONS...
FRANCONIA NOTCH, MOUNT MOOSILAUKE, CANNON MOUNTAIN, NORTH TWIN
MOUNTAIN, FRANCONIA RIDGE, MOUNT LAFAYETTE, MOUNT GARFIELD, AMC
GREENLEAF HUT, AMC LONESOME LAKE HUT, AMC GALEHEAD HUT, AMC ZEALAND
FALLS HUT, CARR MOUNTAIN, LONG POND RECREATION AREA, ELBOW POND
RECREATION AREA, SOUTH KINSMAN MOUNTAIN, MOUNT FLUME, MOUNT LIBERTY,
SOUTH TWIN MOUNTAIN, MOUNT BOND, MOUNT CARRIGAN AND MOUNT TOM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
AMMONOOSUC RIVER UPPER CONNECTICUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS, RIVERS, OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR
CREEKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 7181 4429 7162 4425 7157 4425 7147
4411 7139 4365 7215 4366 7231 4370 7230
4377 7220 4381 7218 4386 7218 4397 7209
4397 7211 4400 7212 4408 7205 4408 7203
4412 7205

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR