The Dividist

07/11/2022

It's been two years since our last post, but the "Dividist Papers" blog is back! Then we were discussing how the Georgia election results would determine partisan control of the Senate and the consequences in future elections. Now we are discussing how the Georgia results will determine partisan control of the Senate and the consequences in future elections. "It's Deja Vu all over again."

The 2022 Midterms: "Overreaching Democrats vs Overreaching Trumplicans"

On the prospects for divided government with a narrow GOP majority in the House, a partisan overreach standoff, MAGA clown candidates, and Democrats retaining the Senate.

https://www.dividist.com/2022/11/2022-midterms-overreaching-democrats-vs.html

02/01/2021

will determine partisan control of the Senate and whether we will have a Divided Government or a Unified One Party Rule Democratic Government for the next 2 years. We have a prediction and a preference. They're not same.

SPOILER ALERT: We'd prefer the GOP keep a one seat majority and divided government (with Mitt Romney as the swing vote) to protect the Joe Biden Administration's left flank from the Democratic Socialist fringe. We expect Republicans will keep both seats. But if the Democrats sweep and have a 50/50 + VP Harris majority, we won't be too concerned with Joe Manchin as the swing vote. More here...

https://www.dividist.com/2020/12/georgia-on-my-two-minds-preference.html

03/11/2020

Welcome to the 2020 Presidential Election "Just Vote Dividist" closing argument. On this election eve Americans have already cast close to 100 million votes through mail-in ballots or early voting.

Which begs the question: What's the point of doing an election eve closing argument if 70% of the vote is already counted? And the answer is: The Dividist has no friggin' idea. We'll do it anyway.

The House is a lock for the Democratic Party and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Vote for Joe Biden and/or for a return to normalcy and decency. Vote to retain a GOP Senate majority for the oversight and moderation only a divided government can provide.

Choose wisely.

Vote for Joe Biden and/or for a return to normalcy. Vote to retain a GOP Senate majority for the oversight and moderation only a divided g

31/10/2020

Gallup Poll Asks Voters The Wrong Question About Divided Government (again) and Arrives at a Wrong Conclusion About Voter Attitudes Toward Divided Government (again).

Every year Gallup publishes this poll and every election cycle the Dividist explains why there is far less than meets the eye in any conclusion based on this poll. The latest iteration is the absurd headline/conclusion in the 2020 edition of this Gallup Poll - "New High Favors One-Party Control of U.S. Federal Government"

Gallup will always struggle to find a meaningful conclusion in this poll for the simple reason they have been asking the wrong question for 18 years. The question poses a fantasy apolitical alternative to divided government that is never found on a real-world ballot.

https://www.dividist.com/2020/10/gallup-poll-asks-voters-wrong-question.html

If Gallup asked the question correctly the poll would show a different pluralities preferring divided government to either party unified government.

10/09/2020

But... But... 2016!!!

One poll and six pundits ( correctly predicted that Donald J. Trump would win the Presidency in 2016.

That was then. This is now.

We look at what they are saying now about Donald Trump and Joe Biden's prospects in ?
https://www.dividist.com/2020/09/but-but-2016-one-poll-and-six-pundits.html

31/08/2020

On Cognitive Madisonianism, protecting the filibuster, and voting for hypocrites.

We understand the angst and anger of our brethren demanding every elected Republican in the federal government be thrown into the GOP funeral pyre, the party burned to ground and/or banished to the wilderness for an electoral cycle or two.

We will not argue whether Trump enablers in the Senate are hypocrites that deserve to be thrown out of office. They do. But the potential damage of a Unified One Party Rule Democratic government with a nuked filibuster cannot be overstated.

Vote for Joe Biden. Vote for your Democratic representative. But vote to keep your hypocritical Republican Senator in office for another cycle to keep our government happily divided, centered, and working as the Framers of the Constitution intended.
https://www.dividist.com/2020/08/cognitive-madisonianism-part-deux.html

03/03/2020

The Dividist finally gets to cast a vote in the California Democratic "Super Tuesday" Primary and he has a few thoughts on the subject.

To beat Trump the Democratic ticket must hold all of the 2016 Blue States won by Clinton and take back enough of the six states that Obama won in 2012 and Clinton lost in 2016 (FL, PA, OH, MI, WI, IA). Joe Biden can do it. Bernie Sanders cannot.

If you want to vote for Sanders because he aligns with your extreme progressive views, or because you believe he will lead you to the promised land, or because you want a "political revolution"... hey, knock yourself out!

But if you want to defeat Trump in November, take the needle out of your arm and Vote for Joe Biden.

If you are voting for Sanders because he aligns with your progressive views or because you want a "political revolution", knock yourself out. But if you want to defeat Trump in November vote for Joe Biden.

17/02/2020

17/02/2020

Spoiler Alert - Here is the Dividist 2020 Presidential Preference Stack Rank Version 2.0:

1) Bill Weld (R)
2) Amy Klobuchar (D)
3) Joe Biden (D)
4) Pete Buttigieg (D)
5) Mike Bloomberg (D)
6) Justin Amash (I)
7) (D)
8) (D)
9) (D)
10) (I)
[...]
1,583) (R)

For details and rationale, check out the blog post.

05/02/2020

What better way to frame the "mostly theater" State of the Union than within a Broadway musical?

The Dividist renews an annual tradition of linking reactions to a show tune. It helps keeps the Dividist awake and blogging throughout a generally meaningless speech without distracting too much from the mandatory drinking games.

This year, in the midst of an impeachment to remove President Trump and while waiting for the results of the first electoral contest among Democrats wanting to remove President Trump, the only choice is "March of the Witch Hunters" from WICKED The Musical.

What better way to frame SOTU social media reactions than within the lyrics of a Broadway show tune? The game is to start with a Broadway song and then find blog posts, news stories, tweets, essays and commentary that can be vaguely referenced in the song and link them to the lyrics. It keeps the Di...

24/01/2020

The President of the United States of America - President Donald J. Trump, is engaged in political corruption that does not meet the moral standards of George Washington Plunkitt, one of the most corrupt turn of the century political participants of Tammany Hall, the most corrupt political organization in the history of the United States.

I just thought you should know.

Is it all graft? How do we distinguish the unseemly but legal graft of selling access for political contributions from illegal corruption extorting foreign governments for personal political gain? What about a President with financial conflicts of interest shaping domestic and foreign policy that ge...

17/01/2020

Wherein the Dividist proposes a select bi-partisan group of moderate, independent minded Senators form an "Impeachment Gang of Eight."

Such an ad-hoc caucus of trusted voices could assure Americans that a fair and rational voice is heard before, during, and after the Impeachment Trial in the Senate.

This modest plan would elevate the trial above the partisan noise level in the Senate, the media, and the country at large, ensure legitimacy and credibility in the trial, and incidentally restore The American Way.

____________________________________________________
Experimenting with Medium - cross-posted from Dividist.com blog.

A place where words matter

11/01/2020

Patting myself on the back for my 2018 prognostications and looking forward to 2020.

Spoiler Alert: I have no idea who'll win the White House, but it's highly likely the federal government will remain divided with an expanded Democratic majority in the House and a razor thin GOP majority in the Senate.

A place where words matter

10/01/2020

Wherein the Dividist proposes a select bi-partisan group of moderate, independent minded Senators form an "Impeachment Gang of Eight."

Such an ad-hoc caucus of trusted voices could assure Americans that a fair and rational voice is heard before, during, and after the Impeachment Trial in the Senate.

This modest plan would elevate the trial above the partisan noise level in the Senate, the media, and the country at large, ensure legitimacy and credibility in the trial, and incidentally restore The American Way.

You're welcome.

Wherein I propose to a select bi-partisan group of moderate, independent minded Senators that they form an "Impeachment Gang of Eight." This ad-hoc caucus of trusted voices could assure Americans that a fair and rational voice is heard before, during, and after the Impeachment Trial. This a modest p...

18/02/2019

Thanks to our brand spanking new divided government and the National Emergencies Act we are going to see all of our legislators go on the record regarding President Trump's "emergency" declaration.

We don't need to dwell on President Donald J. Trump's bizarre Rose Garden announcement. We don't need to speculate on the outcome of the inevitable lawsuits the emergency declaration will spawn. We don't even need to rehash again the tiresome Republican Party / Democratic Party hypocrisy pas de deux as they shamelessly swap diametrically opposing views on executive overreach that they spouted a few short years ago. We just need to focus on this vote. It's a vote we deserve. It's a vote we should note carefully. It's a vote we should remember in 2020.

https://www.dividist.com/2019/02/unitary-executives-imperial-presidents.html

The Cult of the Presidency did not start with Donald Trump. When it comes to executive overreach, he is standing on the shoulders of giants.

06/02/2019

In 2007, as a blogging toddler, the Dividist despaired at finding a unique approach to writing about the when so many other bloggers would be traversing the same ground. The answer came from Bob Woodward. In an on-line Washington Post forum the Dividist asked whether the SOTU had any real relevance. Woodward responded by saying it was "mostly theater." Genius. That was the answer. What better way to frame the SOTU social media reactions than within the lyrics of a Broadway show tune?

The game is to start with a Broadway song and then find blog posts, news stories, tweets, essays and commentary that can be vaguely referenced in the song and link them to the lyrics. It keeps the Dividist awake and blogging throughout the speech without distracting too much from the mandatory drinking games. This year's entry...

https://www.dividist.com/2019/02/state-of-union-musical-shall-we-dance.html

03/01/2019

As the 116th Congress is sworn in, the GOP hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate (representing a net gain of 2 seats), and the Democratic Party have control of the House with a 235-199 majority (representing a net gain of 40 seats). Divided Government (and even better, a divided Congress) is emphatically and happily restored.

The Dividist got his 2018 predictions right, and steps out on a limb with new predictions for 2020.

Wherein we celebrate our brand spanking new and improved divided government, review our 2018 predictions and look forward to 2020.

06/11/2018

I voted for divided government.

I always vote for divided government.