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Storm Front Specialists - Severe Weather Network

Storm Front Specialists - Severe Weather Network Passionate Storm Front Specialists dedicated to forecasting the most significant storms. All posts provided by Meteorologists Sean Bagdon and Derek Centrone

Join us as we explore the power of nature and share our insights on severe weather phenomena.

08/03/2025

***Winter Storm Breakdown And Forecast Accuracy***

Let’s say we definitely redeemed ourselves on this event as over 80% of the forecast area was spot on in terms of our forecast. The one exception to this rule was the southern Star Valley and portions of western I80 where significantly more snow fell than expected. This was likely due to the fact that there was not enough blocking along the Salt Range to allow the snow to primarily fall on the eastern side of the mountains allowing for more moisture than expected to make it into the Soutyern Star Valley. All other areas the forecast was within a couple inches of being spot on which for Wyoming is a win in our book and road impacts were communicated quite well in the forecast as well as several major roadways were closed or under no unnecessary travel orders throughout the event. Here are some snowfall forecast to actual snowfall comparisons.

Lander
Actual - 12”
Forecast - 10”-15”

Northern Star Valley
Actual - 6”
Forecast - 3”-5” with up to 8” near Alpine

Casper
Actual - 12”
Forecast - 10”-15”

Buffalo
Actual - 11”
Forecast - 10”-15”

Lander Foot Hills
Actual - 18”
Forecast 15”-20”

Jackson
Actual - 3.5”
Forecast - 2”-4” locally 8” near Hoback

Southern Star Valley

Actual - 9”-18”
Forecast - 2”-4” with locally 8” on the high benches.

Rock Springs
Actual - 12” some reports from a follower up to 18”
Forecast - 10”-15”

Bondurant
Actual - 12”
Forecast - 10”-15”

Gillette
Actual - 5”
Forecast - 4”-6”

South Pass
Actual - 24”-30”
Forecast - 25”-30”

Overall a cery good forecast with minimal errors except for the western edge of Wyoming. Other than this we hope you all stayed safe during this past winter storm. It looks like we do have a breif break coming in before our next system rolls through but we will save that for another post. Have a great night everyone! Below is a link for the offical snowfall reports as well as a map of radar extrapolated snowfall accumulations. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=RIW&issuedby=RIW&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

07/03/2025

The latest on the powerful winter storm impacting Wyoming through tomorrow.

06/03/2025

If you were looking for another snowfall forecast bust to the low side tomorrow short rangee model guidance from today says keep on dreaming. Since the beginning of the day models have continued to trend higher in the favorable eastern slopes of the Salts, Wind Rivers, Big Horns and the Casper Mountain area. A very significant winter storm will impact the state tonight through Friday. This is certainly one to take seriously as it will likely be the biggest snowfall of the year for most areas around the state.

At this point models have leveled off in agreement with eachother that the eastern slopes of the Winds will see the most snow out of this event including but not limited to Lander and Riverton where 15-20 inches is likely now this banding feature is also expected to be elongated by the elevated terrain to the south allowing for this feature to drop heavy snow from the Lander area all the way through Casper and potentially even into the Douglas and Chugwater areas of the I25 corridor. All areas in this band will likely end in the double digits for snowfall (10-15 inches). Casper Mountain will likely make a run at the 2 foot mark before all is said and done.

Another area of interest on short range model guidance is the Kaycee area along I25 where another area of upslope banding is expected to develop with 15-20 inches expected here. All areas north of Kaycee along the I25 corridor can still expect significant travel impacts as 10-15 inches is expected to fall from Kaycee up to the Montana border.

South Pass is also quite worry some as well as short range guidance as really started to inflate totals in this area where up to 3 feet is possible just east of South Pass City.

Models are also increasing snow totals along the I80 corridor but this we are not all on board with as it appears some dry and warm air will mix in during the day on Thursday as the warm front associated with our system waffles over the area. Even with this being said if anywhere is going to bust to the high side in this forecast it would be here as we are only anticipating 2-4 inches in most areas along the I80 corridor (not including Elk Mountain and I80 high point where 6-10 inches is expected) but models are hinting at up to 6 inches in the Rock Spings and Laramie areas. In our minds this high end scenario painted by models looks highly unlikely to occur except for the Sweet water county area where 6-8 inches looks likely in Evanston.

There are plenty more areas that could be discussed in this post but that would make it way to long so if you have any forecast questions for your area post them below and we will get right back to you as always. Remember this will be a high impact event for a large portion of the state do not travel in this unless you absolutely have too especially along the I25 corridor, Lander, Elk Mountain, the Central Basin, and the Big Piney, Pinedale, South Pass and the 191 corridor.

Note: Star Valley looks to be the least impacted from this event as well as the Greybull area the snow forecast for these areas remains the same as in our previous post with Jackson Hole also seeing a slight bump in expected totals into the 6-10 inch range.

05/03/2025

Here is the latest on the winter storm and road conditions for this Thursday through Friday. Things are going to get interesting if you live on the eastern slopes of the Winds, Salts and Big Horns. Also forgot to mention Casper in this video where high road impacts are expected from 6-10 inches of snow with winds gusting up to 35 mph which could lead to near blizzard and whiteout conditions at times. Drive safe everyone and enjoy the 10-15 inches of fresh snow that is if you live on the eastern slopes. Western slopes look to miss out on this one as downslope warming and drying effects will lead to little to no snow accumulations in these areas with the exception of the Star Valley and Jackson Hole where 3-5 inches could fall with locally higher amounts in the benches, Hoback, The Snake River Canyon and near the Alpine area where up to 8 inches are possible.

05/03/2025

We will be doing a live stream regarding the widespread snow event coming for Wyoming this Thursday tomorrow morning due to the fact that there will be quite a few areas impacted and if we did a text post it would end up being way to long. But at this point a swath of double digit snowfall totals looks likely especially from the Wind River Mountains east and the Big Horn Mountains east. Lander, Buffalo, Riverton and the Wright areas look to be most heavily impacted from this event. The saving grace with this one will be that the winds look quite a bit lighter than the system that came by overnight last night although given the fluffy nature of the snow blowing and drifting is still certainly possible.

Have a great night everyone and see you on the live tomorrow morning!

04/03/2025

***Let’s Break Down Last Nights “Blizzard Event That Wasn’t” And Where Did It Go - Followed By A Breif Apology To Our Followers?!?!***

Good morning everyone it looks like this will probably go down as one of our biggest forecasting blunders of the year as most of you have probably found out when you looked out the window this morning. Even Nebraska is waking up to brown ground even though widespread blizzard warnings were issued here by the National Weather Service as well. So let’s break down what happened to all of the snow that this system was expected to bring?

Looking at a water v***r sattilite image tells the whole story. The system appeared to get a little to strong for its own good and due to this plenty of dry air was able to get wrapped around its core by a stronger than expected southwesterly low level jet which brought in a lot of surface dry air from Mexico and the desert southwest. This extremely dry air that got wrapped in also allowed for the Gulf moisture to be completely cut off from making it into the region which as week helped to keep things significantly dryer than expected. Looking aloft however moisture was abundant in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere which will likely trick the radar generated precipitation maps when they come out this morning due to the fact that most radar scans were showing the relatively heavy banding that was occurring over southeastern Wyoming overnight but sublimating before it got to tge ground.

Overall we do have to owe you an apology for that forecast which was likely one of the worst ones that we have released over the past 10 years of releasing forecasts to the public! Sorry to anyone that made any travel changes or anything of the sort due to this forecast it was certainly not done intentionally as we are definitely not the fear mongering type as some may expect if this is your first time watching our posts. Sometimes even the weather gets the best of us meteorologists as well. Thank you all for your understanding as we move our attention towards the next weather event to roll through Wyoming in a few days which we will cover tonight in an in depth post as winter storm watches have already been posted for a large majority of the state.

Below is a look at the satellite imagery as the dry air that raided off our winter storm snuck just a few miles to north allowing for all Gulf moist to be cut off from moving northwest into the area which shut off all the blizzard potential for not only Wyoming but Nebraska as well where widespread blizzard warnings were in effect. If you want to know how hard meteorology really is look at the satellite image below if that nose of dry air was just 50 -100 miles further south we would be talking about a completely different scenario this morning. It’s instances like this that make us love what we do because we can learn from our mistake and move on to the next winter event which we will take what we learned from this event and apply it to the next one making our forecasts even better as we go through time.

Have an amazing day everyone and enjoy the unexpected dry road conditions. But be careful truckers strong winds are still on going as this system starts to move out take it easy and slow out there!

03/03/2025

Good morning western Wyoming! Overslept a bit on this post but just a quick advisory for anyone traveling today in Western Wyoming light snow from our developing system that will bring blizzard conditions to southeastern Wyoming this evening is leading to some quite widespread black ice issues on local roadways as black ice from this weeks snow melt still remains on the roadways and with a thin sheet of snow on top makes conditions quite treacherous.

Update: Some somewhat good news for southeastern Wyoming is that models overnight have significantly decreased snow totals for areas east of Cheyenne. With that being said even with lower snow totals being expected the strong winds are still expected to develop this evening and overnight leading to blizzard conditions across the area.

The good news how ever for western Wyoming is that this band of light snow shouldn’t last to long and only a few inches is expected for most areas with higher benches receiving up to 4 inches. Drive safe today everyone and if you live in Southeastern Wyoming or are traveling through this evening we wish you luck! Enjoy your sunny 60 degree weather this morning Cheyenne is going to get a heck of a lot more white in the next 12 hours.

02/03/2025

***Significant Blizzard Like Event Expected For Southeast Wyoming***

Happy Sunday Wyoming! We have a lot to get into today regarding the significant winter storm that is expected to impact Southeastern Wyoming from the 3rd of March through the 5th as winter storm watches have now been hoisted for the area. At this time our forecast from our previous post looks to remain on point but in this post we will go over specific totals and wind speeds for towns in Southeastern Wyoming for this event.

Discussion: As anticipated a rapidly deepening area of low pressure with plenty of moisture return from the Gulf will pass over northeastern Colorado early in the morning on the 4th. Due to the fact that this system will be rapidly strengthening dynamics will be extremely favorable for heavy snow banding to develop on the northwestern edge of the system(Southeastern Wyoming). With this a very tight pressure gradient is also expected to develop in a very similar area leading to very powerful winds developing just above the surface. Wherever the heaviest bands set up is likely where these powerful winds (up to 65 mph) will reach the surface leading to blizzard conditions. The most likely area for this to occur will be along I80 from the I80 high point east to the Nebraska border and along I25 from the Colorado border north to the Douglas area. Very difficult to impossible travel conditions are expected in these areas especially from the evening of the 3rd to the evening of the 4th.

As for totals a marginally fluffy snow is expected in the most intense banding features allowing for somewhat efficient snowfall accumulation. The accumulations with the heaviest banding feature that is expected to set up from Cheyenne and to the northeast to the Nebraska border (Albin, Burns and Pine Bluffs and including portions of I80 near the Nebraska boarder) 10-14 inches is expected. Winds gusting up to 60mph will lead to high end travel impacts due to whiteout conditions across this area.

For Cheyenne which looks to remain on the very southern extent of the most intense banding 5-8 inches of snow is anticipated with winds gusting up to 55 mph which will lead to high end road impacts especially overnight on the 3rd through the afternoon of the 4th. Significant blowing and drifting snow will lead to whiteout conditions at times.

The rest of southeastern Wyoming can expect a general 3-5 inches of snow with winds gusting to 45 mph which will lead to high road impacts due to blowing and drifting snow and near blizzard conditions to blizzard conditions in localized areas.

As a note if you plan to travel during this time period do not travel unless it is absolutely necessary and if you do have to travel make sure you have you car outfitted with a winter survival kit in case you do find yourself stuck.

Drive safe everyone and have a great Sunday!

02/03/2025

Blizzard Warnings will likely be needed for Southeastern Wyoming from the night of the 3rd through the 5th of March. More updates on this event coming shortly!

01/03/2025

***We Are Closely Watching Southeastern Wyoming Mid Next Week***

Good evening Wyoming, I hope you have enjoyed the past few days of relative calm because this are about to ramp up as mentioned in our previous post around the 4th of March! In this post we won’t be highlighting exact amounts since it is too far out to have certainty in totals but what we do know is where will likely see the worst impacts and the type of impacts that will be expected.

The general set up we will be watching is an area of rapidly deepening pressure over northeastern Colorado as well as a blocking high off to the east and a reinforcement of arctic air from the northwest. As of now models are in good agreement of the positioning of the low over northeastern Colorado on the 4th bringing in a rather intense band of snow off to its northwest side as deep gulf moisture is funneled in from the east and directly into the Laramie and Medicine Bow ranges. These areas and points east into parts of the Nebraska Panhandle (yes this includes Cheyenne finally) need to closely watch the latest developments on this system as we get closer.

As for what models are showing in terms of wind it does appear that low level winds are expected to rapidly strengthen to blizzard force and beyond across southeastern Wyoming on the evening of the third and potentially could continue into the morning of the fifth as this system looks to strengthen and stall out near southeastern Wyoming for a couple of days leading to widespread near blizzard to blizzard conditions being possible for at least a full 24 hours(60% chance of this scenario occurring).

One thing southeastern Wyoming will have to watch for is the potential of this system beginning as rain due to the fact that the temperature gradient with this system will be nothing short of extreme. It is even possible that temperatures could push 60 degrees in some areas of southeastern Wyoming just a few hours before the snow starts to set in as a reinforcing shot of arctic air gets pulled in behind this system creating the potential for a flash freeze and black ice situation to develop as temperatures are expected to rapidly drop into the 20’s as the system starts to unleash its ugly side on the Southeastern corner of Wyoming.

As for totals in general long range ensemble guidance is suggesting a widespread swath of 4-6 inches of winds blow and drifting snow across southeastern Wyomingeastern Wyoming with upwards of a foot falling near the eastern slopes of the Medicine Bowl and Laramie ranges. Keep in mind that some model runs do drop up to 2 feet of snow across the Cheyenne area still(30% chance). Keep in mind that this forecast is subject to change as we await high resolution model data. At this time it is something to keep a close eye on as it does hold the potential to be a very impactful event. More to come in a post later on which will also include expected road impacts for the entire state of Wyoming from this event.

Have a great night everyone and remember we still have 2 more months of winter “at least in Wyoming” and it appears that at least the first 2 weeks of March look extremely active once the 4th hits!

Posted below are images from recent model runs showing where the most intense banding features may show up, the strong temperature gradient that will accompany the system as well as the intensity of the winds just above the surface which will likely accelerate down the mountain ridges and into the valley valley areas.

27/02/2025

As anticipated it appears the first trough that will be crossing the country will get pretty roughed up by dry air leading to a very minimal severe threat. After this moves through though significant moisture return is expected out in front of a large trough axis that will be digging into the Central Plains and the Southeastern US. This associated with a slew of dry air getting pushed in aloft from both the higher terrain of Mexico and the Southern Rockies and a very large and strengthen low level jet will envelop the aforementioned area leading to the potential of a very significant severe weather outbreak by the middle of the first week of March. As stated by the SPC strong tornadoes and all modes of severe weather will be possible with this event. This wording 6 days out by the SPC is quite rare and models continue to support this possibility. We will be going live tonight to cover our first forecast of a potentially significant tornado outbreak this year. Yes we have a had a few so far but this one looks to be a doozy. Stay safe everyone and make sure you have your severe weather action plan in place so you know what to do if severe weather strikes.

26/02/2025

Good evening everyone, in this post we will be breaking down the long term forecast for both our main following area of Wyoming as well as for the Southern Plains and the Southeastern US which many Facebook weather pages have said there is the potential for a tornado outbreak in these areas around March 4th.

Starting with Wyoming it finally appears that the high wind event that has plagued the state for the last several days will finally come to an end by by Wednesday morning. Following this is the fools spring that a lot of you have mentioned to us in our recent posts. As always in Wyoming fashion though winter is not quite done yet. How do we know this? From the larger scale teleconnection forecasts. Looking at the PNA (which is a numerical way of showing how much ridging is occurring over the Pacific coast) it appears that we will trend towards a more neutral pattern heading into the first week of March. What this means is that after our week of ridging and sunny skies a significant turn around to cooler and snowier weather is expected to occur especially west of the divide which models have remained in good agreement with. East of the divide will likely remain on the drier side unfortunately as these sorts of set ups favor a dry downslope flow east of the divide with continued strong wind events through the first half of March. We will continue to monitor this situation as we get better model clarity but winter does not look like it’s over yet especially west of the divide where there will be many more opportunities for significant precipitation events from the 4th of March on to at least the middle of the month.

Now for you all down in the southern plains and the southeastern US we have some good news for you! (At least initially). The main teleconnection is meteorologists look at when long range forecasting for this area of the country is the AO or the Arctic Oscillation. At this time it looks to remain neutral to positive through the first week in March which would hinder the potential severe weather outbreak potential a lot of the more amateur pages have been hinting at occurring. This sort of pattern would take any system that does develop well north of the southern US states. With this being said a few systems are expected to track along the north of this expected ridging pattern which could allow the ridging to break down towards the end of the first week of March allowing room for any system that may develop across the Great Basin during the end of the first week of March to break into the southern US states. Looking at long range model trends it does appear that the pattern will become more favorable for severe weather across the southern US as we head into mid March. Of course there is plenty of time for changes to occur it is a pattern change we are closely monitoring. Expect more updates as we come closer to the end of the first week of March. But for now you all in the South can rest easy as the overall weather pattern continues to look unfavorable for severe weather through at least the first week of March. The key at this time frame is to not let the amateur weather pages scare you on an event that is over 5 days out. We will make sure to let you know if any high end severe weather threat is possible but it certainly wont happen in the near future. You all can rest easy for now.

Have a great day everyone and as always if you have any questions regarding this discussion you can post them in the comments below and we will make sure to get back to you as soon as possible!

24/02/2025

First off huge props to the volunteer fire department of Wheatland for battling the blaze east of town last night in these powerful winds. Not many fire departments have what it takes to put out a fire in these conditions absolutely incredible life saving work done by them last night!

Good morning Wyoming overnight wind gusts were quite incredible across the I80 corridor as this event has verified as a 2 time in one year event as winds have been sustained at hurricane force across quite a few areas along both the I25 and I80 corridors so far with gusts reaching into the 90 mph range. Even for Wyoming this is not something that happens everyday like most people in the comments seem to belive. The high winds are anticipated to continue through at least Wednesday as a stalled out frontal boundary will continue to pummel most of Wyoming with powerful downsloping winds through this time frame. The good news however is the unusually strong winds are expected to slowly subside and be should be out of the area by Monday afternoon. After this more normal wind gusts in the 60-65 mph range should persist leading to continued extreme blow over risk closures for light and high profile vehicles through Wednesday before a pattern change to more benign weather and ridging looks to develop by late this week.

As for western Wyoming the forecast looks on track as snow fell early on in the lower elevations and changes to rain this evening and overnight as warm air moved in aloft on strong southerly flow. These persistent rain showers should continue through at least Monday afternoon as continued moist and unseasonably warm flow impacts the western mountains. The good news for the skiers out there is that above 8,000 feet the majority of this event should remain in the the form of a wet snow allowing for continued base building for the spring skiing season! Another 4-6 inches remains possible for all areas Teton Pass and higher. Have a great night everyone and if your travel plans do bring you across the higher mountain passes of western Wyoming travel with caution. Those with light and high profile vehicles should continue to avoid the I80 and I25 corridors through the Wednesday time frame.

After this storm passes things look quite warm and quite weather wise for Wyoming so we will likely turn our heads towards the potential of severe weather across the southern and southeastern US starting late this week.

23/02/2025

***Powerful But Dry Storm Impacts Wyoming Early Week***

Good evening everyone, we hope you enjoyed the last few days of rather calm weather across the state as this will likely come to a brief close early this coming week. The bad news is most lower valleys and basins will likely remain warm enough for mostly rain to fall during this event. The one exception to this rule could be parts of Jackson Hole where low level cold air may linger a bit longer but a transition to plain rain is still anticipated here by Monday morning with precipitation remaining in place across the west through Tuesday morning when the next ridge of high pressure moves into the area.

Looking up into the western mountains though the forecast looks quite a bit whiter than their wetter valley counterparts. At this time total snowfall for Teton Pass Sunday to Tuesday looks to remain in the 6-9 inch range. Given the warmer temperatures this is anticipated to be a very heavy and wet snow even across Teton Pass meaning that anyone traveling on Teton Pass needs to be prepared for significantly slicker than usual travel conditions and moderate impacts due to slushy roadways at higher elevations. As for valley locations only a dusting to 2 inches of snow Is expected through the event with locally 2-4 inches being possible on the higher venches of the Star Valley.

The main threat with this system will be the severe wind event that will affect the I80 corridor from Rawlins to the Nebraska border as well as most of the I25 corridor. This will be due to a powerful cold front that is expected to roll through the region especially Sunday night and into Monday when winds could easily gust over 80mph with 100mph gusts certainly not being out of the question. This wind event without a doubt will lead to potentially several days of light and high profile vehical closures leading to significant back ups at local truck stops and rest areas. Strong winds are anticipated through Monday afternoon before yet another brief break in the action occurs Monday evening.

More updates regarding this high wind event will be posted as it unfolds drive safe everyone and if you have a light or high profile vehicle I would recommend staying out of Wyoming for a few days. Just a hint😉

21/02/2025

***Ridging Takes Hold Across Wyoming***

Good morning everyone, we finally have some good news for you. After several rounds of heavy snow have impacted Wyoming over the past week or two it looks like we are finally going to get a break in the action for a few days as an area of high pressure looks to take control over the state. This won’t necessarily mean beautiful sunny skies for everyone as it does look like a few clouds will stay in place especially across the westernn mountains and valleys as upper level moisture looks to linger but the good news is there will be little to no forcing as these weaker systems move through meaning that we will have a break in the action.

The next system we are watching for western Wyoming does look to swing through on Sunday but at this time models have been in and out in terms of accumulations with this system as there won’t be much in the way of forcing with it. At this time it looks to remain on the lighter side but as always we will keep tabs on it and update you as details become more certain.

Besides this enjoy the tranquil weather over the next few days. We deserve it! We will make sure to post a post storm analysis to our page tomorrow regarding the system that impacted Southern Wyoming (especially southwestern Wyoming) over the past few days.

19/02/2025

***Offical Snowfall Forecast Wednesday Night To Thursday***

Looking at western Wyoming for this upcoming event snowfall totals look to remain minimal (d-2 inches)as the main energy will be diving slightly further south than previously anticipated.

As for Southwestern Wyoming Sweetwater county won’t be getting off as easy. As our area of low pressure starts to develop and draw deeper moisture into the eastern side of the Salt and Wasatch ranges heavy banding of snow is expected to develop by 10pm tonight and remain stationary from Rock Springs through the Utah border along I80 until at least Thursday at 10pm leading to a full day of significant road impacts along I80. The good news as mentioned last night is the winds should remain below blizzard criteria through the entirety of the event meaning blowing and drifting snow should not be a huge issue although snow packed roadways will likely cause problems along the I80 corridor.

As for the typical problem spots from Rawlins to the I80 high point upslope flow is also expected here which will likely be favored on the eastern slopes of the Laramie and Medicine Bow Ranges. Here brief bouts of blizzard conditions are going to be possible especially if the low really starts to crank up allowing for the potential of whiteout conditions to exist locally across Elk Mountain and the I80 high point. Looking at the Cheyenne area east models have backed off on the idea of significant snowfall in this area now that most models are in agreement that the system will dive south earlier than later.

Looking at totals Sweetwater county will be the big winner here where 5-8 inches is possible through the day on Thursday locally higher amounts will be possible near the Evanston area and points west to the Utah border where up to 12 inches could be possible. High road impacts expected.

Further east from the Sisters east bound to Rock Springs on I80 3-6 inches of snow will still remain possible although this area will likely see lighter snowfall rates as upslope effects will be lost from the Salts over this area which will slightly reduce road impacts to moderate in this area.

From Rock Springs to Rawlins only a few inches of snow is likely.

As for Elk Mountain to the I80 high point conditions are expected to not be the best to say the least especially overnight tonight through Thursday morning as winds will locally reach blizzard force during this time frame leading to near whiteout conditions at times and high end road impacts. 5-8 inches likely especially along the higher terrain of Elk Mountain and the I80 high point with only a dusting to 2 inches falling in the Laramie area due to downsloping effects.

As always if you have any questions regarding this event please feel free to shoot us a comment or a DM and make sure you all drive safe tonight if traveling I80.

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