Tornado T'S Weather

26/04/2024

I'm back from a very long time away. Any questions about your weather?

05/02/2022

19/01/2022

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 22 2022 - 12Z Wed Jan 26 2022
..Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance remains in good agreement with the mean flow over the
lower 48 highlighted by an amplified upper ridge off/along the
West Coast and an amplified and unsettling upper trough over the
central to eastern U.S. that coincides with several short and
medium range Arctic blasts with periods of much below normal
temperatures. The models have been less than stellar with the run
to run continuity of embedded shortwaves rotating through the mean
upper trough position and surface system reflection, but seem to
be slowly improving. Given lingering model variance issues
however, the earlier released WPC medium range product suite was
primarily derived from the 12 UTC GEFS mean and especially the
ECMWF ensemble mean along with the 01 UTC National Blend of
Models. The 00 UTC models seem to be converging on better
clustered solutions that have overall trended favorably toward the
WPC composite solution, bolstering forecast confidence.
..Weather Highlights/Threats...

00 UTC forecast guidance is better clustered with an important
shortwave trough exiting the Mid-Atlantic Saturday that offers
potential for coastal storm development. The 00 UTC models better
agree with development of an organized low off the Mid-Atlantic
and New England. The WPC Winter Weather Outlook holds a lingering
chance for coastal snows into Day 4/Saturday with the exiting low
given the threat of a few more robust ensemble members.

Upstream, models generally agree to carve out a Southwest
U.S/northern Mexico closed low by Saturday that offers terrain
enhanced snow potential from the Mogollon Rim to the southern
Rockies/High Plains. The system remains slated to be ejected
eastward across the U.S. southern tier early next week. Lead
moisutre return from the Gulf of Mexico will overrun a
trailing/wavy front to fuel a decent swath of precipitation within
a cooled airmass from Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast.

19/01/2022

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=291803129651740&id=100064661654914

Heavy snow with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour will be likely this morning from northwest Pennsylvania northeastward across northern New York into western and northern New England. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0085.html

19/01/2022

SPC AC 191257

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm winds, isolated large hail, and a tornado or
two may occur from afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly from
east Texas to southern Arkansas and western Mississippi.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will contribute to the
sharpening of a positively tilted mean trough from eastern Canada
across the central Plains and southwestern CONUS to northwestern MX,
by 12Z tomorrow. A downstream perturbation -- apparent in moisture-
channel imagery near the TX/NM line -- will eject east-northeastward
into confluent flow aloft and deamplify through the period. By 00Z,
the feature should be located from the Ozarks to north-central TX.
By 12Z, it should extend from WV southwestward toward MEM.

Surface analysis at 11Z showed a substantial cyclone centered over
ON northeast of Lake Huron -- ahead of a northern-stream, mid/upper-
level shortwave trough. A cold front was drawn across southeastern
Lower MI, western IN, southern IL, southeastern MO, and northwestern
AR, to a weak frontal-wave low over east-central OK that is related
to the approaching southern-stream perturbation. The cold front
extended from there across northwest TX, the TX South Plains, and
east-central/north-central NM. By 00Z, the cold front should extend
across eastern NY, southwestern PA, eastern KY, mid TN, northern
parts of MS/LA, and southeast/south-central TX. By 12Z, the front
should reach the Delmarva Peninsula, western NC, northern GA,
southern parts of MS/LA, and the northwestern Gulf.

...East TX to lower Mississippi Valley region...
Scattered thunderstorms should form this afternoon into tonight
along/ahead of the surface cold front, between the Mid-South region
and southeast TX. Damaging to marginally severe gusts and isolated
large hail are possible, especially over LA/TX portions of the
outlook areas, along with a tornado or two.

Lift should occur both with the front and a prefrontal, warm-sector
convergence zone in a warm-advection plume. Diurnal heating of an
increasingly moist wedge of partially modified return-flow air
(surface dew points of upper 50s to mid 60s F) will weaken MLCINH to
negligible amounts by around 21Z. This will help to offset modest
but adequate mid/upper-level lapse rates and yield MLCAPE ranging
from around 500-800 J/kg over east-central/southeastern AR to 800-
1200 J/kg in east TX and northwestern LA. Initial discrete to
partly linear afternoon development is expected, amidst mean-wind
and deep-shear vectors oriented about 30 deg rightward of convective
lift axes. Forecast soundings reasonably depict around 100 kt
anvil-level winds and similar magnitudes of cloud-layer shear, with
35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting both organized
multicells and at least some supercell potential. After the initial
mixed-mode phase, activity should become more linear, with embedded
supercells and LEWPs/mesocirculations possible.

With time this evening and tonight, the front will impinge on the
warm sector and prefrontal ascent zone, faster than the inland
advance of favorable boundary-layer theta-e. This ultimately will
narrow the surface-based warm sector from north to south across the
lower Mississippi Valley region late this evening and tonight. In
addition, the lack of substantial upper support (with the
perturbation's weakening and pulling away to the north) will
contribute to declining overnight severe potential as well.

13/01/2022

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=289418693223517&id=100064661654914&sfnsn=mo

Always a good idea to do a mid-season checkup by visiting our Winter Safety website! weather.gov/wrn/winter_safety

13/01/2022

Would y'all enjoy having SNOW forecasts as well?

13/01/2022

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the mainland U.S. today.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the eastern
CONUS. A weak shortwave trough and associated speed max -- now
embedded in northwest flow over portions of IA -- will move
southeastward and strengthen considerably today, reaching portions
of AL/GA by 00Z. The perturbation should continue intensifying as
it pivots offshore from northern FL, GA and SC overnight, while
inducing surface cyclogenesis over Atlantic waters well to the east.
Low-level mass response will intensify the northwesterly to westerly
gradient flow and negative theta-e advection over FL and adjacent
waters, causing substantial offshore displacement of favorable
buoyancy and lift. In the meantime, convection crossing the lower/
middle Keys may produce sporadic flashes, with a small portion of
the roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE evident in the morning KEY sounding
extending into favorable icing layers for lightning. Thunder also
will be possible over waters near the southeastern FL coastline, and
a few flashes may occur just east of the NC Outer Banks as well.

12/01/2022

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible near coastal areas of
southeastern Florida and over the Keys.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A broad mid/upper-level cyclone with binary vorticity maxima will
pivot over the Hudson Bay/northern QC region through the period,
anchoring a large-scale trough extending southward to the Gulf.
This trough will amplify through the period as a series of
shortwaves pass through northwesterly to cyclonic flow from the
central to eastern CONUS. One of the shortwave troughs -- apparent
in moisture-channel imagery over east TX -- should pivot across the
northern Gulf Coast region today, reaching parts of central/northern
FL overnight.

As the mid/upper trough approaches, low-level mass response will
back flow from a dominant easterly to northerly component. As this
occurs, the primary convergence zone aiding the bulk of convective
potential will shift away from a position north of a decaying
frontal zone, near the mainland coast and Keys, where it will be
located much of today. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are possible amidst marginal instability, with MLCAPE
around 500-800 J/kg over mainland coastal areas, slightly higher in
the Keys, and up to 1500 J/kg offshore over the optimal thermal
fluxes of the Gulf Stream.

11/01/2022

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunder will be possible today along immediate coastal
areas of southeastern Florida.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mean trough will persist in mid/upper levels over the eastern
CONUS, with amplifying ridging over the West Coast States. A weak,
small, initially cut-off cyclone over southeastern NM and far west
TX will move eastward and rejoin the prevailing westerlies as a
deamplifying open wave. reaching the Sabine River vicinity by 12Z
tomorrow. With relatively dry and stable low-level conditions, this
feature should yield only midlevel convection to its east over
central/southeast TX and southwestern LA, with lightning potential
too isolated and low for a general thunder area.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across the northern
Bahamas and Straits of Florida, to the central Gulf. This front
should weaken as it drifts southward. A nearly collocated surface
trough, confluence/convergence zone and moist axis extended
northward between south FL and the Bahamas, which should continue to
focus isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over/near the Gulf
Stream. Though lapse rates will be modest overall, ocean-air
thermal/moisture fluxes over the Gulf Stream and diurnal heating
inland should boost MLCAPE into the 500-800 J/kg range along the
immediate coastal area south of FLL across Biscayne Bay to Elliott
Key and Key Largo. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will be possible offshore,
based on modified MFL RAOB and model soundings. Though theta-e and
low-level lift will continue to be stronger over open water, where
the bulk of convection should remain, a few thunderstorms may reach
land before dissipating.

10/01/2022

Everyone enjoy your day

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected across central and south Florida,
mainly this afternoon/evening.

...FL mainly this afternoon/evening...
In the wake of deep midlevel trough over the Northeast, a surface
cold front will continue to move southeastward across the Gulf of
Mexico and FL peninsula through tonight. Daytime heating across
central/south FL and a diffuse pre-frontal trough will help focus
the development of a few thunderstorms, mainly this
afternoon/evening across southeast FL where there may be some local
sea breeze enhancement. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and weak vertical
shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely.

...Elsewhere through tonight...
A lake-effect snow band will persist through the afternoon off Lake
Ontario. Shallow buoyancy is expected within this band, but the
entire profile will be colder than -5 to -6 C, which suggests that
lightning production will be sparse (if at all). Farther east, any
ocean-effect convection deep enough to produce lightning flashes
should remain well off the southeast New England coast tonight.

09/01/2022

09/01/2022

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM EAST
CENTRAL LA ACROSS SOUTHERN MS TO SOUTHWESTERN AL...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging gusts, a couple of tornadoes, and isolated large hail will
be possible today across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
Alabama.

...LA/MS/AL area through late evening...
A positive-tilt, southern stream trough will phase gradually with a
deep northern stream trough over the Great Lakes. In the immediate
wake of the Great Lakes midlevel trough, a continental polar air
mass will spread southeastward across the OH/TN/lower MS Valleys and
reach the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Moisture return in
advance of the associated cold front has brought boundary-layer
dewpoints in the mid 60s as far north as southern AR and central MS
(with near 70 F along the northwest Gulf coast) this morning, and
the moisture will continue to spread northeastward today across MS
and central/southern AL. The primary low-level jet will develop
eastward from the Ark-La-Miss this morning along the north edge of
the warm/moist sector, and continue eastward across northern MS/AL
during the day to north GA by this evening.

Midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km per regional 12z soundings and
pockets of surface heating will combine with the aforementioned
moisture advection to support MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg in the
warm sector from later this morning into the afternoon. Though
low-level shear will tend to weaken from west-to-east during the
day, 12z soundings suggest the warm sector will destabilize and
convective inhibition will be minimal by late morning, which should
support additional storm development prior to weakening of vertical
shear. Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt and effective SRH of
150-200 m2/s2 will support the potential for a few supercells
capable of producing damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and
isolated large hail before vertical shear weakens and the threat
diminishes by this evening.

...Lower TX coast this afternoon/evening...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into this
evening along the lower TX coast, where the reinforcing synoptic
cold front intersects a pre-existing surface trough. A couple of
strong storms will be possible given moderate buoyancy this
afternoon, but vertical shear will be relatively weak, and organized
severe storms appear unlikely.

09/01/2022

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Sat Jan 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible today in the central
Gulf Coast states.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
today as flow remains from the west-southwest across much of the
southeastern U.S. A belt of strong low-level flow will move eastward
across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. The southern
edge of the stronger low-level flow will be in the lower Mississippi
Valley, where moisture advection will occur during the day. By early
afternoon, surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F across much of
Louisiana and Mississippi ahead of a cold front approaching from the
northwest. The front will focus convective development this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday and
move east-southeastward across Louisiana, central Mississippi and
central Alabama this afternoon. The airmass is forecast to be
moderately unstable ahead of the storms with MLCAPE peaking in the
1000 to 2000 J/kg range by late afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast
soundings from near Jackson, Mississippi eastward to Montgomery,
Alabama have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range with some
directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for
supercell development with cells that remain discrete along and
ahead of the front. Rotating storms may produce isolated damaging
wind gusts and be accompanied by a marginal tornado threat.

However, there are a few limiting factors for today's scenario. the
first is that the low-level jet will move eastward away from the
region during the afternoon. The second is that large-scale ascent
will be limited. The third is that surface winds are forecast to
gradually veer ahead of the front. For these reasons, any severe
threat is expected to remain marginal and localized.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/09/2022

06/01/2022

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02/01/2022

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS....

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible across
parts of the Southeast and Carolinas through tonight.

Surface based thunderstorms have begun across southeast Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle into Georgia with a TDS observed in the
Florida Panhandle. These thunderstorms are expected to continue
northeastward throughout the day amid strengthening low-level shear.
Some of this strengthening flow has been observed at the KEVX and
KTLH VWP in the last few hours. This low-level flow will strengthen
through the day as low-level cyclogenesis intensifies. In addition,
this will cause winds to back across the warm sector. As a result,
hodographs will both elongate and become more curved through time
which should increase the tornado threat. The best low-level shear
is expected across portions of northeast Georgia and South Carolina
this evening and into the overnight hours. The outflow boundary
which stabilized this region has washed out and southerly flow has
resumed across this area. However, destabilization remains a
question for a few reasons:

1. Ongoing convection is expected to track across this region which
may lead to additional stabilization.

2. Forecast soundings would suggest mid 60s dewpoints are needed for
robust updraft development in this region which may be difficult
with low-level streamline trajectories showing a moisture source
from the Gulf of Mexico.

Temperature/dewpoint differences of a few degrees will likely be the
difference between a significant tornado threat and general
thunderstorms across this region. Therefore, the forecast will need
to be monitored closely through the afternoon and evening.

..Bentley.. 01/02/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Sun Jan 02 2022/

...Northeast Gulf Coast to the Carolinas...
A pre-frontal band of convection has sagged southeast, resulting in
the larger-scale outflow boundary draped from eastern/southern SC
through central GA and southern AL. This convection is well ahead of
the stronger synoptic Arctic cold front surging across the central
Gulf Coast and the western Gulf. This pre-frontal band should
continue to focus convection through this evening from southeast AL
into SC, where gradual cooling aloft (2-3 C cooling in the 700-400
mb layer compared to current profiles) and a little low-level
warming/moistening will contribute to an expanding buoyancy plume
with a southwest to northeast gradient by late afternoon. Given the
continued strong deep-layer vertical shear, the stronger storms from
southeast AL across southwest to east-central GA will be capable of
producing damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a couple
tornadoes.

Primary cyclogenesis will occur tonight from west central/southwest
GA into SC along the residual pre-frontal convective boundary, in
response to increasing height falls aloft with the amplifying
midlevel trough. Related increases in forcing for ascent, low-level
warm/moist advection, and strengthening vertical shear (both
deep-layer shear and low-level hodograph curvature) should be
sufficient to support convection persisting overnight night in a
broken band along or just ahead of the synoptic cold front and near
the deepening surface cyclone. Warm-sector buoyancy should become
limited (MLCAPE near 500 J/kg) overnight, with the northward extent
dependent on the amount of recovery that can occur in the wake of
the pre-frontal convective overturning this afternoon/evening. HRRR
forecast soundings are the outlier relative to other 12Z HREF CAM
guidance in depicting more aggressive warm/moist sector recovery
ahead of the deepening surface cyclone in central GA to
western/central SC. If this occurs, effective bulk shear of 60-70 kt
and effective SRH of 300-450 m2/s2 will favor embedded supercells
capable of producing tornadoes, including a conditional threat for a
strong tornado or two. At least scattered damaging winds appear
possible as well given the intensifying 850-700 mb wind fields.
Confidence is too low given the thermodynamic and spatial
uncertainty to warrant an additional upgrade at this time, but will
need to be closely monitored in later updates.

01/01/2022

https://fb.watch/agdzIGTXVG/

01/01/2022

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=282295560602497&id=100064661654914

01/01/2022

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds and tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong,
will be possible through early tonight, especially across the
Tennessee Valley.

...TN Valley and vicinity through tonight...
Convection has persisted through the early morning hours along a
baroclinic zone demarcating the northwest edge of the richer
low-level moisture from AR into TN/KY. The convection has
reinforced this boundary and it is unlikely to return northward
today, given the lack of strong cyclogenesis as a result of an
expansive cold air mass across the central U.S. that will undercut
the stronger forcing for ascent in advance of the primary shortwave
trough over AZ/UT this morning. Even though the main surface
cyclone will not be particularly intense and will develop farther
northeast away from the warm sector (in tandem with an ejecting
shortwave trough now over TX/OK), strong deep-layer wind fields and
vertical shear will persist through the day and into tonight in the
warm sector across the TN Valley.

Given the persistence of the subtropical ridge over FL and only
glancing/small height falls through the day, much of the convection
may remain confined to the convection-reinforced frontal zone.
Still, there will be the potential for embedded supercells within a
broken band of storms along the front, and a lower chance for a
couple of supercells in the open warm sector along diffuse
confluence zones a little south of the front this afternoon/evening.
Effective bulk shear of 60-70 kt, effective SRH near 300 m2/s2, and
MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg will conditionally support supercells
capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and marginally
severe hail. The prospects for a strong tornado or two will likely
hinge on pre-frontal supercell development (which is uncertain) from
northern MS into northern AL and TN late this afternoon/evening.

The frontal convection will spread southeastward through the
overnight hours, with a gradually lessening severe threat and
shrinking warm sector centered on AL toward the end of the period.

..Thompson/Kerr.. 01/01/2022

21/10/2021

We now have a Whats App button. Please help me gelp you. If you see something in your area (USA ONLY) PLEASE call or text. Thank you.

21/10/2021

Tornado T's is now on What's App.

21/10/2021

Things will be changing in 2022. Post what you would like to see in the comments.
Sincerely,
The Owner