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20/01/2025

Chance of snow for parts of the state late Tues afternoon and evening...

While snowflakes are possible anywhere in the state, the greatest chance (including possible accumulations) would be primarily south and east of a line from roughly Augusta to Columbia to Florence. This is one of those rare cases where highest snow totals would likely be in the low country and coast, with lesser chances and amounts the farther inland you go.

This "backwards" snow gradient being due to the storm system moving unusually far south and from extremely dry air moving into the state from the northwest. Upstate will be more under the influence of the dry air which will cause most (if not all) of the flakes to dry up before ever reaching the ground. The coast, being in better dynamics closer to the storm system and closer to a water source (the ocean) should easily make for snow accumulations. This will likely cause a cutoff between "just flurries" and "measureable snow" to set up somewhere over the midlands. While an average of high resolution model guidance suggests this cutoff will be somewhere near the I-20 corridor, there is still a spread among the guidance of give or take 45 miles or so.

The biggest issue will be slick roadways where snow accumulations occur. Keep in mind, with very cold air the rest of the week and afternoon temperatures only slightly above freezing, any snow accumulations would be slow to melt. In areas that get enough accumulation, that could lead to more than one day of partial melting then refreezing into black ice.

Will post updates tomorrow as we iron out the finer details.

Tony

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10/01/2025

Midday update: The initial "wintry mix" continues to transition into rain drops (due to warming in the clouds) roughly from Columbia and points south, but temperatures at ground level remain below freezing. This is causing those rain drops to freeze into icicles after they land. Temps in the upper 20s to around 30 are cold enough for icy patches on bridges/overpasses and secondary roads (and even borderline in spots for icy patches on main roads that have not been properly treated with sand/salt)..Surface air is still not completely saturated, so evaporative cooling will continue to offset daytime heating (resulting in temps holding where they are)...Fortunately, rain rates are mostly light for the time being...

Once that air fully saturates later today/this evening, the temperatures will slowly start to rise and rain intensity will increase. That's going to be the most critical point in this storm; How much warming can occur before the heavier rain sets in.....33 degrees and we're trouble free! 31-32, you'll have icicles in the trees/elevated surfaces that could result in some power outages, but limited impacts on the roads...30 or below, roads become a nightmare...

As I stated leading up to this event, we're right on the borderline such that one or two degrees can make a world of difference in the impacts you see in your yard...And you can easily have a 2 degree temperature difference between your front yard and your back yard, so that goes to show the complexities that we're dealing with. Road may only be wet in front of your house, but a solid shield of ice just a block away. So it's best to stay off the roads if possible, as long as we're right on that borderline....You just don't know where the slick spots are going to be until you hit them!

North of the Columbia area, confidence is much higher that you'll see significant impacts. For Columbia and points south, still a lot of uncertainty that will require close monitoring of temperature trends in the hours ahead.

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09/01/2025

Wintry mix possible Friday and Fri Night for the midlands; Greatest chances and biggest impacts the farther north you go toward the northern midlands and upstate....

An area of precipitation will apporach during the late morning/early afternoon. The air will initially be so dry that this will struggle to reach the ground. That precip falling through the dry air will also cause evaporative cooling (same way you get cold when you first step out of the shower or pool), so once it does start reaching the ground, it could start out as a slushy mix of different precipitation types.

For the Columbia area, warmer air moving in at cloud level should quickly transition any possible mix over to rain, though temperatures at ground level may remain near the freezing mark for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. This could cause the rain to freeze over into a glaze of icicles (ie. "freezing rain")...Given the borderline temperatures, most of those potential icicles would likely be on elevated surfaces, like trees and roof tops. Hopefully the roads stay clear, but it does bear watching as soil temperatures are unusually cold given all the hard freezes this week. Could not completely rule out some short term power outages due to the weight of icicles on power lines.

To the north of Columbia, particularly the northern midlands and upstate, the chances of ice are much higher, duration much longer, power outages more widespread and significant icing on the roads likely.

Exact surface temperatures will be critical in determining where ice occurs and how signficant it is during the late afternoon/evening. This will depend on 1. How warm the temperature can get in the morning before the precip starts (morning clouds will likely limit this heating)...and 2. How much the temperatures drop by afternoon due to evaporative cooling from the initial area of precip...It's a case where we'll have to watch temperature trends throughout the day and adjust our expectations accordingly.

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06/11/2024

Our dry weather will come to a quick end later today. While we could use some rain, parts of the state may get too much of a good thing. Highest risk of flash flooding will be over the southern half of South Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday.

The recent dry weather causes mixed results... For sandy soils, the dry dirt will initially be able to absorb a lot of the rain limiting the flooding threat for the first few inches that fall...On the flip side, clay soils have hardened to the point that they may not be able to absorb even the first few inches, leading to much quicker flooding concerns in those areas. Also of note, the lack of green vegitation this time of year enhances the flooding risk for all soil types over other times of the year.

While exact rain totals and extent of possible flooding remains uncertain, enough factors are in play that those in flood-prone areas need to be paying attention and have ways of getting flood warnings. Will also need to use extra caution on the roads, especially Wed night into Thurs. Remember, if you can't clearly see the lines in the road, that puddle is too deep to safely drive through.

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08/10/2024

There's still no evidence of any big impacts for South Carolina out of this latest hurricane. It'll be a little breezy, especially Thursday, with gusts 20 to 30mph most of the state (perhaps 35 or so in the low country) ; Enough to be an annoyance and maybe give you a bad hair day, but not enough to really do any noteworthy damage. Most, if not all of the tropical storm force winds should stay south of Savannah and offshore over the open waters where there's less friction to slow it down. A few light rain showers may brush parts of the coastline, but no significant rain expected. There will no doubt be some higher waves on the beaches with maybe a 2-4 ft storm surge on the low country beaches...Again, minor annoyances, but NOT a high impact event for us...

Unfortunately, for our friends down in Florida, the situation is much more dire! Major hurricane conditions expected on the west-central FL Peninsula coast (particularly areas around Tampa, Sarasota and down to Cape Coral). These areas will see widespread wind damage and significant storm surge (over 12 ft possible). Folks in evacuation zones that are told to leave, need to do so! Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland over the FL Peninsula with rain water flooding also a real possibility over the inland Peninsula. Tree damage as well as damage to the power grid and communication towers could be quite significant, leading to days or even weeks without power, internet or cell service for some. So even those inland that are considering riding out the storm need to consider the risk of flooding, large trees that could potentially fall on your home and the impact of those long term power and commuication outages. My thoughts and prayers are with those that will be affected by this!

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05/10/2024

There is a new tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico that will likely become a major hurricane over the next few days, but currently it is NOT expected to come our way!

There's fairly high confidence that a dip in the jet stream and surface high pressure mid to late week will offer a shield of protection for the Carolinas.

Unfortunately, our neighbors down in the Florida Peninsula may not be so lucky, so our thoughts and prayers will be with them! The current most likely storm track will be across central Florida, then into the Atlantic and out to sea.

Will watch it very closely over the next few days, but as long as the current pattern and track forecast holds, we will be just fine! A little breezy mid to late week (but nothing crazy) and little to no chance of rain.

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28/09/2024

I want to thank everyone that helped me get the word out about the real impact of this recent storm. I was hitting this one very hard since last weekend and I think long term followers picked up the unusual urgency in my words/tone. Like I said the other day, this would be the Gulf coast version of "Hugo". The pattern was identical, it would become a similar strength and size to Hugo, hurricane force winds would be felt unusually far inland like Hugo and inertia from it's size and speed would make it slow to turn, likely bringing the track closer to South Carolina. Unfortunately, relatively few see my forecast. The National Hurricane Center forecast is what reaches the masses and they were slow to pick up on the strength and never did pick up on the farther east track closer to our state! I was chewing nails on Thursday when they were STILL trying to sharp turn it closer to Alabama. It was way too big and fast-moving to make that sharp of a turn. You try making a sharp turn in your car from one road to another without slowing down; You'll miss the road and skid off into the ditch on the other side every time! Faster you go, the wider your turn will be.

In any event, I hope I was able to at least prepare some for what was to come. We knew this would be tropical storm force statewide with near hurricane force closer to the Georgia line (Just over the border in Augusta, winds were clocked at 82mph). We knew power outages would last from several hours to as long as a couple days for some (still lots of outages as of this morning) and we knew lots of trees would come down. We know of at least 19 deaths in our state (unconfirmed rumors of more) and dozens in surrounding states as well. Many of these due to trees falling on homes and vehicles. I've said it a thousand times, large trees within striking distance of your house is a death trap waiting to happen! If you have the financial means to do it, hire a professional to cut these trees away from your house. It could save your life in a storm one day. We've also had issues with significant flooding in the upstate.

It's a real mess that's going to take time to recover from...

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27/09/2024

8:30am Update: Wild night! Lots of tree damage. Around a million power outages in South Carolina....Greatest tornado threat is now confined to the far northeast part of the state (P*e Dee and Grand Strand). Rain rates are gradually lessening. Winds are still strong and will stay breezy today, though gradually improving to more manageable levels. Meantime, additional tree damage and power outages remain possible. If you must get out on the roads, use extra caution!

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27/09/2024

1am Update: High Impact Wind, Flooding and Tornado Event Still Expected Overnight...

Hurricane has struck Florida as a major category 4 and is racing into Georgia. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate across South Carolina during the night; Especially south and west of I-26 and closer toward the Georgia border. I still believe the eyewall (strongest part of the storm) will brush the SC/Georgia line at either strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane strength.

Wind: Tropical storm force wind gusts over 40mph expected statewide. Areas south and west of I-26 may see gusts in excess of 60mph and minimal hurricane force gusts not out of the question; Especially near the Georgia state line.

Damage: Expect widespread trees down and power outages south and west of I-26, greatest the closer to the Georgia border. Scattered down trees and outages for the eastern half of the state.

Rain: Several inches of additional rain expected, heaviest in the western half of the state and additional flash flooding expected.

Tornadoes: We've already had reports of 2 deaths in south Georgia from tornadoes and our environment in South Carolina will only become more favorable for tornadoes as the night progresses. Nighttime tornadoes are particularly dangerous! These will spin up quickly, often with very limited warning. Have multiple reliable ways of getting warnings throughout the night and take shelter immediately should a tornado warning be issued for your area.

Not everyone will see wind damage, but many will. Not everyone will see flooding or tornadoes, but some will...In these situations, some neighborhoods get spared while others get hit hard. And if you're one of those unlucky ones, it could be very serious, so do not take this one lightly. Long time followers know I'm a very low hype forecaster, but this is not the storm to play around with.

Tony

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26/09/2024

High Impact Weather Event Tonight; Damaging Winds, Power Outages, Flooding and Tornaodes All Possible...

Lots of info you need to know, so please read carefully....

5pm update: As expected, the storm in the Gulf has reached major hurricane status as it races toward landfall in the Florida panhandle/Big Bend area this evening. Some further strengthening is still possible until the center/eye moves on land. It then will start weakening, but the fast forward motion will allow it to travel well inland before weakening below hurricane strength. As such, hurricane force wind gusts will likely make it to at least central Georgia.

At some point over Georgia, the center should start veering more westward. Tropical guidance suggests a quicker turn, while dynamical guidance continues to suggest a slower turn, allowing western parts of South Carolina to get closer to the eyewall (which is the strongest part of the storm). Unfortunately, I'm leaning more toward this slower turn. For one, the core of the storm will start losing some of it's purely tropical characteristics in which case dynamical guidance tends to perform more accurately. The second reason is due to inertia. If you've ever taken physics, you've probably heard that word. It's essentially where things in motion are resistant to change. Example being when you slam on brakes in your car and you feel your body surge forward because it's resisting that change in motion. Both size and speed increase this effect. It's the reason a big train takes longer to stop than a small car and the reason you have to slow down before making a turn onto another road. If you try to turn without slowing down, you'll miss the road and skid off into the ditch as stronger inertia at full speed wants to keep pulling you in the direction you were originally going. In this case, this hurricane is both very large in size and moving fast in forward motion. Therefore, it will take it longer to turn than a smaller, slower-moving hurricane. For these reasons, I'm leaning toward the slower turn and greater impact to western South Carolina.

Wind: Tropical storm force wind gusts in excess of 40mph will be possible statewide tonight, primarily after midnight lasting into Friday morning. In the western part of the state, closer to the Georgia line, these could reach strong tropical storm force in excess of 60mph. It would not be out of the question for a brief, localized gust reaching hurricane force over the upstate and western midlands. This would be due to small downbursts underneath thunderstorms. This could lead to lots of tree damage and power outages lasting from a few hours to as much as a day or two in some cases. Again, the farther west you are toward the Georgia line, the greater this risk with less of these issues the farther east you go toward our coast. Be watchful for large trees near your house, especially on the southeast, south and southwest sides of the house. Trees on these sides would fall toward the house and can have deadly results.

Rain: Many parts of the state have already seen a few inches of rain with reports of urban flooding (Downtown Columbia, for example). As rain rates increase tonight, flooding will become even more of a concern, espicially the farther west you are in the state. Unfortunately, there could be some cases of significant flooding closer to the Savannah river and the upstate. If you're in this part of the state and know you're in a particularly flood-prone area, you should consider evacuating to higher ground ahead of the storm. At the very least, you should be listening for flood warnings and be prepared to evacuate to higher ground on a moment's notice tonight. Totals could be even more extreme in the mountains where landslide will be possible. Very dangerous stuff!

Tornadoes: There is a risk of tornadoes statewide tonight. We've already seen several storms on radar showing weak rotation today. Expect this to become more common throughout the night as wind shear continues to increase. Tropical tornadoes can develop suddenly with little advanced warning. Have a plan in place of where you'll take shelter if a tornado warning is issued. Have multiple ways of getting tornado warnings throughout the night (Wireless Emergency Alerts on your phone and a weather radio are the best options). Keep your phone charged and don't put it on "do not disturb" when you go to bed. You want it to wake you if something bad is going on. If you're put under a warning, get to your safe shelter immediately. For a site-built house, that's typically a hallway, hallway closet or interior bathroom. Cover your head with something (helmet, hard hat, pillows, couch cushions, books, etc.) and wear hard-soled shoes in case there's broken glass and such from storm damage. Mobile homes and vehicles are not safe during tornadoes.

Rain and tornado threat will be ending Friday morning from south to north, though gusty winds will remain throughout the day leading to potential of additional tree damage/power outages. Just because the sun may return does not mean you're out of the woods for those impacts.

I stress that I don't mean to overhype this, as for many it will just be a nuisance rain and wind. But for some, it could get very dangerous and I want you to be prepared of the possibilities just in case. No reason to panic, but you do need to be paying attention for possible hazards and have a plan to make wise choices should it get hazardous in your area.

I will be here all night updating with general thoughts on the weather setup (so long as I keep power and internet), but never rely on this page (or any other social media page) for real-time warnings. Facebook algorithms and such make it too untimely and unreliable for emergencies that require immediate action (flood, tornado, etc.)

Stay safe and we'll ride this one out together tonight!

Tony

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25/09/2024

Significant impacts of damaging winds, tornadoes and flash flooding possible for parts of South Carolina...

We now officially have a hurricane and it's moving toward an area of the Gulf of Mexico that's favorable for rapid intensification. The hurricane will be over very warm waters and tracking between an upper-level high pressure and upper-level low pressure. This pattern favors rapid strengthening to major hurricane status and an acceleration in forward speed as it races toward the Florida panhandle or Big Bend area Thursday night. The pattern over the Gulf ahead of this storm is actually very similar to the pattern we had over the Atlantic with Hugo. As you'll recall, Hugo rapidly intensified to major hurricane status and the acceleration in forward motion allowed significant winds to make it much farther inland after landfall than normal...Granted, this storm will NOT directly hit our coast, that same general behavior is expected of major hurricane strength at landfall (this time in the Florida panhandle) and strong winds making it well inland (perhaps gusts to minimal hurricane force as far north as central Georgia).

As far as South Carolina impacts, there's still the issue of the hurricane veering more westward over Georgia and the extent of our impacts will depend on how quickly that curve happens; The longer it takes for it to start curving, the worse our impacts would be. Understand, there will be impacts here regardless of how quickly it curves; The difference will only be in how significant those impacts are.

Winds: Even with a quicker turn, all of South Carolina would have the risk of wind gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range. With a slower turn, some areas in the western half of the state could see that jump up to as much as 60 to 70 mph on Thursday night (primarily talking areas closer to the Georgia border, like Aiken, Augusta, Greenwood, Anderson). With saturated grounds, these winds could cause widespread tree damage and power outages, particularly the farther west you go in the state toward the Georgia line. At this time, I don't believe we will see any widespread gusts to hurricane force, though it would not be out of the question for a brief, stray, localized gust to hurricane force within some of the strongest thunderstorms. Also of note, wind directions will be changing; initially from the east, then southeast, then south, then southwest. Our trees are not used to blowing that fast from some of these directions, so that puts extra strain on them. Not to mention that some trees that are sheltered by buildings or other trees with a typical west wind may not be sheltered from winds coming from the south or east; All factors that increase the risk of tree damage and power outages. While most outages would only last a few hours, some could last up to a day or two (especially in those western parts of the state if the slower curve/stronger winds happen). I would have some non-parishable foods on hand, just in case.

Rain: Most of the state should get a good soaking (at least an inch or so) with higher amounts of at least 2 to 5 inches in the western half of the state. Should the slower curve take place, you could easily double those totals in the western half of the state. This could lead to flash flooding, especially the farther west you are. In the mountains, this could lead to a risk of dangerous landslides.

Tornadoes: All of South Carolina will have a risk of tornadoes, as we will be on the favored right-front side of the storm. Unlike the rain and wind hazards that are greater the farther west you go, the tornado threat will actually be higher the farther east you go. This is due to higher instability values being closer to the coast. This threat could start in the low country early Thursday before gradually spreading into the rest of the state Thursday afternoon and lasting throughout the overnight hours into Friday morning. Everyone in the state should have multiple ways of receiving tornado warnings at all times day and night. Take it seriously if one is issued for your area.

The good news: Drier air wrapping around the back side of the storm should quickly bring the rain and tornado threat to an end Friday morning. May even end up with a good supply of sun on Friday. Winds will still remain breezy, perhaps enough to continue a power outage risk.

I know this is a lot to process and not trying to scare anyone or overhype this. But we do need to be prepared as there is at least the potential for significant impacts across parts of the state. More updates to come....

Tony

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23/09/2024

Confidence increasing that we see rain, gusty winds and possible tornadoes from a tropical system late week...

I expect a hurricane to quickly form in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-36 hours. Computer guidance suggests that it will get at least to category 2 strength, though I believe there's a real possibility of it getting stronger than this; Possibly much stronger! With an upper air high pressure off the southeast coast and an upper low pressure in the Mississippi Valley, this puts the hurricane in a position where there's very ideal ventilation in the upper parts of the storm. This is a favorable pattern for a rapidly strengthening hurricane. Water temperatures are also very warm over the Gulf, thanks to recent quiet weather (no big waves to bring cooler water up to the surface). Given these factors, I'm concerned that computer models may be underestimating the ability of this to become a major hurricane.

Given the upper air pattern described above, the hurricane will get pulled in the general direction of the Florida panhandle and will likely make landfall there sometime Thursday. Steering currents then get much faster causing the forward motion to accelerate through Georgia later Thursday into early Friday. This is when it will be close enough for us to get impacts in the Carolinas. Granted, the hurricane will start weakening once it hits land, the fast forward motion limits the time it has to weaken. So it could still be at strong tropical storm or even minimal hurricane strength when it reaches central Georgia late Thursday or Thursday night. Here is where things start getting complicated; The storm will start directly interacting with that upper low over the Mississippi valley and start turning more westward. Depending on how quickly this turn occurs, will determine how close it gets to South Carolina. Quicker turn would send the biggest impacts toward western Georgia/Alabama, where a slower turn would mean greater impacts for South Carolina.

Understand, this "track" is simply the center part of the storm. It will be a very large storm in size with impacts felt far away from the center. So wind and rain will likely reach us regardless of which path it takes; The difference would be in the amounts. The closer we get to the center of the storm, the heavier the rain totals and stronger the winds. This will be an important determining factor in the risk of downed trees/power outages, school cancellations, etc. Being on the "right" side of the storm also opens us up to some potential of quick spin-up tornadoes, regardless of which path it takes.

Keep in mind, it's still early. We've got a few more days to watch this and further changes to the forecast is likely. Though the chances of impacts are increasing, it's still too soon to say what the extent of those impacts would be. Please be careful of extreme, unrealistic forecasts circulating on social media. We don't want to overhype the risk; Especially this early in the game when there's so much that could change. Now is the time to stay tuned and be paying attention, but not overreact.

More updates to follow in the days ahead....

Tony

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22/09/2024

We need to closely watch the Gulf of Mexico this week as a hurricane (possibly major) is expected to form. Steering currents are still uncertain, but there's growing evidence that a weakness in the atmosphere could help pull that hurricane up toward Florida late this week. If that happens, the worst impacts would be along the Gulf coast, though some impacts could still be felt in the Carolinas as the weakening remnants move farther inland. Way too soon to say to what extent those impacts would be (if they happen at all), but it definitely bears watching over the next few days.

Meantime, watch out for the crazies posting on social media. You'll start seeing scare tactics and click bait of random computer models popping up in your news feed. But understand, it's way too soon to be talking any kind of specifics. There's a lot more data that needs to be collected and entered into those computer models before they can start giving realistic expectations of what's to come. I'll be watching and posting updates throughout the week, as necessary.

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22/09/2024

At this time 35 years ago, "Hugo" was about to make landfall on the South Carolina coast. A night those of us that lived through it will never forget!

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09/08/2024

Big thank you to everyone who followed along this week and helped me share the realistic expectations of this storm, without all the overhyped, blown out of proportion drama. Some dealt with a substantial amount of flooding, some had trees down and power outages...But for many, it was just a rainy week. And that's exactly the message I was trying to convey; Be alert to your surroundings, be ready to seek higher ground if you're in a particularly flood-prone neighborhood, but not to panic like it was the end of all humanity.

I must have seen posts pop up on my news feed 100 times saying "Extremely Catestrophic Life-Threatening Flooding Likely!!!", references and comparisons to the 2015 flood (in which water was up to the roofs of some homes), etc...Seriously, what did that accomplish? Other than causing panic, making people believe Armageddon was coming and when it didn't happen, making them less likely to trust when a true emergency is coming.

And they're ALREADY at it again! Seeing multiple posts this morning about a "category 4 hurricane for the east coast in 10 days"...(Shaking my head)...Yes, computer guidance does show a potential hurricane in the Atlantic next week (which is quite common in August; Happens multiple times each and every year around this time). But, it's WAY too soon to speculate where it may go or how strong it will be when it gets there, when it's a week or more down the road. We'll watch it, like all other hurricanes, and give you plenty of time to prepare if and when it were to become a threat. We're expecting an active hurricane season and it's almost inevitable that we'll get impacts of some form out of at least 1 or 2 more in the coming weeks. But to try predicting such extreme impacts to an area that far into the future is irresponsible and not sound meteorology.

I'm begging you, think before you share click-bait and panic-casting.

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