26/09/2024
High Impact Weather Event Tonight; Damaging Winds, Power Outages, Flooding and Tornaodes All Possible...
Lots of info you need to know, so please read carefully....
5pm update: As expected, the storm in the Gulf has reached major hurricane status as it races toward landfall in the Florida panhandle/Big Bend area this evening. Some further strengthening is still possible until the center/eye moves on land. It then will start weakening, but the fast forward motion will allow it to travel well inland before weakening below hurricane strength. As such, hurricane force wind gusts will likely make it to at least central Georgia.
At some point over Georgia, the center should start veering more westward. Tropical guidance suggests a quicker turn, while dynamical guidance continues to suggest a slower turn, allowing western parts of South Carolina to get closer to the eyewall (which is the strongest part of the storm). Unfortunately, I'm leaning more toward this slower turn. For one, the core of the storm will start losing some of it's purely tropical characteristics in which case dynamical guidance tends to perform more accurately. The second reason is due to inertia. If you've ever taken physics, you've probably heard that word. It's essentially where things in motion are resistant to change. Example being when you slam on brakes in your car and you feel your body surge forward because it's resisting that change in motion. Both size and speed increase this effect. It's the reason a big train takes longer to stop than a small car and the reason you have to slow down before making a turn onto another road. If you try to turn without slowing down, you'll miss the road and skid off into the ditch as stronger inertia at full speed wants to keep pulling you in the direction you were originally going. In this case, this hurricane is both very large in size and moving fast in forward motion. Therefore, it will take it longer to turn than a smaller, slower-moving hurricane. For these reasons, I'm leaning toward the slower turn and greater impact to western South Carolina.
Wind: Tropical storm force wind gusts in excess of 40mph will be possible statewide tonight, primarily after midnight lasting into Friday morning. In the western part of the state, closer to the Georgia line, these could reach strong tropical storm force in excess of 60mph. It would not be out of the question for a brief, localized gust reaching hurricane force over the upstate and western midlands. This would be due to small downbursts underneath thunderstorms. This could lead to lots of tree damage and power outages lasting from a few hours to as much as a day or two in some cases. Again, the farther west you are toward the Georgia line, the greater this risk with less of these issues the farther east you go toward our coast. Be watchful for large trees near your house, especially on the southeast, south and southwest sides of the house. Trees on these sides would fall toward the house and can have deadly results.
Rain: Many parts of the state have already seen a few inches of rain with reports of urban flooding (Downtown Columbia, for example). As rain rates increase tonight, flooding will become even more of a concern, espicially the farther west you are in the state. Unfortunately, there could be some cases of significant flooding closer to the Savannah river and the upstate. If you're in this part of the state and know you're in a particularly flood-prone area, you should consider evacuating to higher ground ahead of the storm. At the very least, you should be listening for flood warnings and be prepared to evacuate to higher ground on a moment's notice tonight. Totals could be even more extreme in the mountains where landslide will be possible. Very dangerous stuff!
Tornadoes: There is a risk of tornadoes statewide tonight. We've already seen several storms on radar showing weak rotation today. Expect this to become more common throughout the night as wind shear continues to increase. Tropical tornadoes can develop suddenly with little advanced warning. Have a plan in place of where you'll take shelter if a tornado warning is issued. Have multiple ways of getting tornado warnings throughout the night (Wireless Emergency Alerts on your phone and a weather radio are the best options). Keep your phone charged and don't put it on "do not disturb" when you go to bed. You want it to wake you if something bad is going on. If you're put under a warning, get to your safe shelter immediately. For a site-built house, that's typically a hallway, hallway closet or interior bathroom. Cover your head with something (helmet, hard hat, pillows, couch cushions, books, etc.) and wear hard-soled shoes in case there's broken glass and such from storm damage. Mobile homes and vehicles are not safe during tornadoes.
Rain and tornado threat will be ending Friday morning from south to north, though gusty winds will remain throughout the day leading to potential of additional tree damage/power outages. Just because the sun may return does not mean you're out of the woods for those impacts.
I stress that I don't mean to overhype this, as for many it will just be a nuisance rain and wind. But for some, it could get very dangerous and I want you to be prepared of the possibilities just in case. No reason to panic, but you do need to be paying attention for possible hazards and have a plan to make wise choices should it get hazardous in your area.
I will be here all night updating with general thoughts on the weather setup (so long as I keep power and internet), but never rely on this page (or any other social media page) for real-time warnings. Facebook algorithms and such make it too untimely and unreliable for emergencies that require immediate action (flood, tornado, etc.)
Stay safe and we'll ride this one out together tonight!
Tony
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