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South East Med Energy & Defense The Ultimate Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Information Platform for Energy & Defense Professionals. Our publications can be read freely.
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Who We Are

South Eastern Mediterranean Energy & Defense is a unique Platform dedicated to Energy and Defense developments in the region which aims to:

> Publish news, analyses, newsletters and reports, as well as the official views of major stakeholders and key opinion leaders, in order to illustrate the geopolitical parameters that affect the balance between energy and geopolitical developments

, which is a major key element for their strategy.

> We are today mostly focused on examining how present events and trends affect future outcomes, such as situational and trend assessments. These assessments are carefully considered within the relevant regional or global context, and often benefit from our deep institutional memory and rich network of contacts from around the world.

> Our analyses isolate the real, but often overlooked or misreported significance of specific current events and trends for the region and sometimes, the world.

> We also increasingly focus on global issues connecting the region with the wider world as these relations indicate the South East Mediterranean & Europe regions’ continued relevance and interrelationship with greater world events. Additionally, we compose special reports for private clients.

17/08/2024

Playing with Israeli and Western nerves: Hezbollah's PSY OPS...

Hezbollah released video footage on August 16 unveiling for the first time a fairly large underground missile base codenamed “Imad 4”.

The security situation in the northern borders of occupied Palestine is still tense, and there is a possibility of a large-scale ground conflict at any moment. After the recent assassinations, the Israeli regime has increased the number of its special units and military forces near the borders of Lebanon due to the possibility of retaliatory attacks by Iran and Hezbollah. Additionally, new concrete trenches have been constructed in the border areas and more equipment has been deployed to the borders.

> Iran has delayed its promised retaliation against Israel for the killing of a Hamas leader, creating a tense waiting g...
16/08/2024

> Iran has delayed its promised retaliation against Israel for the killing of a Hamas leader, creating a tense waiting game in the region.

> Analysts believe Iran's hesitation stems from concerns about sparking a larger war and the complexities of coordinating with its allies.

> Increased US military presence in the region and diplomatic efforts may also be influencing Iran's decision-making.

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/The-Real-Reason-Iran-Hasnt-Retaliated-Against-Israel.html

Turkey (Türkiye) was infamously expelled from the international fifth-generation stealth fighter program after it pushed...
15/08/2024

Turkey (Türkiye) was infamously expelled from the international fifth-generation stealth fighter program after it pushed forward with its acquisition of the Russian-made S-400 Triumf (NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler). Washington and NATO argued the system was incompatible with the F-35, and that operating both would compromise the stealth capabilities and safety of the aircraft.

Turkey had been a part of the supply chain for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and reportedly paid $1.25 billion to participate in the effort. Producing parts for the fifth-generation aircraft was expected to have generated $9 billion in revenue for Ankara, while six F-35 aircraft produced for Turkey were not delivered.

Turkish businessman Cavit Caglar, who served as minister of state in the early 1990s, suggested that Ankara should dump the S-400 – and find a foreign buyer, perhaps India or Pakistan – and that such a move could win the good graces of Washington.

"The situation needs to be rectified. If I were in charge, I would sell the S-400s," Caglar told the Turkish language newspaper T24 in an interview last week. "There are customers available. Pakistan or India could buy them."

Moscow had sent two S-400 batteries as well as more than 120 long-range missiles as part of the agreement along with experts to train Turkish soldiers on how to operate the Triumf. A second batch still has yet to be delivered.

>>> What is notable is that despite Turkey's determination to move forward to adopt the Triumf, the system hadn't been made operational as of last December when Turkish Defense Minister Ya ar Güler told reporters that the S-400 system would only be utilized when needed.
There is little reason to believe the situation has changed, and last week, the EurAsian Times also reported that Ankara had excluded the S-400 from its "Steel Dome," a multi-layered air defense system that is currently being developed.

Turkey has apparently lost faith in the S-400 and it could be argued it is a matter of face as to why it continues to retain the platform.

In Israel, support is growing for an offensive against HezbollahThe U.S. has been working to avoid an escalation with th...
15/08/2024

In Israel, support is growing for an offensive against Hezbollah

The U.S. has been working to avoid an escalation with the Lebanese militia that could lead to a regional war, but inside security circles, some wonder whether now is the time to risk one.
Israel is bracing for a retaliatory strike from Iran and Hezbollah for killings in Tehran and Beirut. But others want a Gaza cease-fire to release hostages Hamas is holding in the enclave and help calm tensions on the northern border, so thousands of displaced Israelis can go home.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he doesn’t want a war but has promised a “heavy price” in response to an attack. Hezbollah has massed more than 100,000 rockets, missiles, drones and other projectiles along Israel’s northern border.

The US approved the sale of as many as 50 F-15 fighter jets, vehicles and ammunition to Israel in a deal valued at more ...
14/08/2024

The US approved the sale of as many as 50 F-15 fighter jets, vehicles and ammunition to Israel in a deal valued at more than $20 billion.

The announcement yesterday highlights President Joe Biden’s determination to supply Israel the weapons it wants despite growing criticism about its forces’ conduct in the war in Gaza and the growing civilian death toll.

Traders are moving Russian diesel cargoes to a new ship-to-ship (STS) loadings site in the northern Aegean Sea, as Weste...
14/08/2024

Traders are moving Russian diesel cargoes to a new ship-to-ship (STS) loadings site in the northern Aegean Sea, as Western sanctions hit vessels carrying fuel loaded in Russian ports, LSEG and market sources data show.

Since a full European Union embargo on importing Russian oil products took effect in February 2023, traders have diverted diesel exports from Russian ports to Brazil, Turkey, countries in Africa, Asia and STS loadings. STS loadings make it harder for Western countries to trace trade in Russian oil products.

International waters off Greece’s Laconian Gulf became one of the most popular locations for STS loading of Russian oil products in Europe due to their proximity both to Russian ports and the Suez Canal, which offers access to Asian markets.

In April, Greece issued two notices for military exercises in the Laconian Gulf area, urging merchant and other vessels to avoid the area. Tankers carrying Russian oil products moved from waters off the southeastern Peloponnese mostly to Malta and Port Said in northern Egypt.

In July, at least four vessels carrying about 123,000 metric tons combined of diesel and gasoil loaded at Russia’s Black Sea ports of Taman and Tuapse went for transshipment to the neutral waters south of the Greek island of Chios, LSEG data show.

Three more vessels have been loaded in Tuapse with a total of about 100,000 tons of gasoil in August so far and are also heading toward STS south of islands in the north Aegean, according to the traders and shipping data.

The latest EU sanctions could be another reason for the pickup in STS activity, market sources said.

In June, EU countries adopted a 14th package of sanctions against Russia, which aimed to crack down on the so-called shadow fleet of foreign vessels transporting its oil products. Russia is exporting around 3.5 million metric tons per month of low-sulfur diesel and gasoil.

source: reuters.com

Turkish Defense Minister mocks the West to its face...Turkey wants to improve its ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Org...
14/08/2024

Turkish Defense Minister mocks the West to its face...

Turkey wants to improve its ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), but its priority is fulfilling its responsibilities to NATO as an important ally, Defense Minister Yasar Guler told Reuters in a written interview.

The SCO is a security, political and economic club launched in 2001 by Russia, China and Central Asian states as a counterweight to Western alliances.

Furthermore, responding to Reuters questions he said Turkey is pleased with its deal with the United States regarding the procurement of Block-70 F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits, and the process is continuing as planned, adding that officials from the two NATO allies are still discussing details of the deal.

“We hope the project will be completed without any problems until the last jet is delivered,” Guler said.

In a secret deal, the Kingdom of Jordan has acquired MLRS rocket systems from China in two models: SR5 and SM-20. This t...
14/08/2024

In a secret deal, the Kingdom of Jordan has acquired MLRS rocket systems from China in two models: SR5 and SM-20. This transaction signifies a tightening of security ties between Jordan and China.

Jordan has not officially reported the deal, but a video showing the two models of Chinese rockets produced by the 'North Industries' group in China was released.

Swedish research institute SIPRI reported that Jordan purchased four Chinese MLRS systems in 2010, and the video suggests that Jordan has now acquired an upgraded version of the system.
According to a report by World Defense News, an MLRS battery can launch rockets of 122mm and 220mm calibers, providing operational flexibility on the battlefield.

The system is mounted on a 6X6 vehicle, noted for its mobility and rapid deployment capability. It features an advanced fire control mechanism and precision targeting, with a rocket range of up to 70km.

Greece which aspires to become an energy hub a.k.a. "the battery of Europe" in the Balkans and Central Europe, vis-a-vis...
13/08/2024

Greece which aspires to become an energy hub a.k.a. "the battery of Europe" in the Balkans and Central Europe, vis-a-vis Turkey, despite now getting a majority of its power generated from renewable sources, still relies heavily on natural gas, which accounts for more than a third of power generation.

Not surprisingly, Greek imports of natural gas from Russia reached an all-time high energy equivalent of 3.69 terawatt-hours in July, at the expense of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which was supposed to lessen Greek dependence on Russian gas.

The imports, through the TURKSTREAM pipeline, accounted for about 59% of total gas imports. The flow of LNG, 1.21 Twh, was less than half that of July 2023 (2.51 Twh) and accounted for 19.3% of total gas imports.

In the first seven months of 2024, Russian gas accounted for 51.7% of all imports, compared to 14.2% in the same period last year.

> IN DEPTH Düsseldorf financial newspaper Handelsblatt recently reported: "With a network of terminals for the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Greece wanted to become a hub for the gas supply of southeastern Europe. Five new plants were planned in which the LNG delivered by tankers would be regasified and then exported to neighboring countries via pipelines. The planned terminals would have had a handling capacity of 25 billion cubic meters, four times Greece's own needs.

But now the ambitious plans are being put on hold. For weeks, not a single liquid gas ship has docked in Greece. The country even wanted to supply gas to Ukraine. Now the big plans are quietly buried.
With a network of terminals for the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Greece wanted to become a natural gas supply hub in
Southeastern Europe.
The initial situation has changed dramatically, with demand for liquefied natural gas now collapsing. The country’s only LNG terminal is located on the island of Revithusa, near Athens. Operating since 1999, the Revithusa storage facility was set to handle almost 60 percent of Greece’s natural gas imports by 2023.

In April, for the first time in five years, no gas tankers docked at Revithysa. According to the company, there are no reservations for August either. “The environment has changed as early as 2023,” said Motor Oil CFO Petros Tzanetakis. And the trend continues.

In the first quarter of 2024 Greek gas exports to the Balkan countries were down 95 percent compared to the previous year. This is one reason why some decisions on new terminal investments, which have been pending for years, are still pending.

The prospects for building new facilities are dwindling. The natural gas market has been completely turned upside down. Russian state
company Gazprom is flooding Southeastern Europe with natural gas through TURKSTREAM.
And countries are happy to benefit from this because Russian pipeline gas is cheaper than gas from the US, Algeria or Qatar.”

Naval forces gather in East Med to bolster Israeli defense - The role of Cyprus as stopover...Many signs point to the cl...
13/08/2024

Naval forces gather in East Med to bolster Israeli defense - The role of Cyprus as stopover...

Many signs point to the clear urgency of the Middle East situation, one of which is the concentration of strong naval forces – along with Israeli forces – deployed all the way along the nation’s coastline to guard the country’s airspace and deter potential maritime threats.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered a guided-missile submarine to the Middle East as well as the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to sail more quickly to the area.
Lincoln has F-35 fighter jets aboard, along with the F/A-18 fighter aircraft that are also on carriers.

USS Lincoln, which has been in the Asia Pacific, had already been ordered to the region to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group, which is in the Gulf of Oman with an es**rt team, presumably to monitor everything going on in the Persian Gulf, particularly off the coast of Ira,. where its largest naval facility, Bandar Abbas, is located nearby.

About a dozen F/A-18 fighter jets from the Theodore Roosevelt have flown to a military base in the Middle East, as part of the Pentagon’s effort to help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its proxies and to safeguard U.S. troops, according to a U.S. official.
The F/A-18s and a E-2D Hawkeye surveillance aircraft took off from the carrier in the Gulf of Oman and arrived at the undisclosed base on Monday,
The Navy jets’ land-based deployment is expected to be temporary, because a squadron of Air Force F-22 fighter jets is en route to the same base from their home station in Alaska.

Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, did not say how quickly the USS Georgia guided-missile submarine would get to the region.

The USS Wasp, an amphibious operations ship that is also referred to as a “mini aircraft carrier” because it transports AH-1W Super Cobra attack helicopters along with vertical takeoff and landing MV-22B Osprey helicopters and AV-8B Harrier fighters, has been docked in Limassol in Cyprus for the past few days.
With such impressive capabilities, the USS Wasp also carries the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit.
The presence of the USS Wasp essentially indicates preparation for the possible need to conduct civilian evacuation operations from Lebanon and the surrounding region.

Moreover, two US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are already off the coast of Israel.

The support ships RFA Mounts Bay and RFA Cardigan Bay, both of the British Royal Navy, are docked in Cyprus for the same reason. Depending on the task, these amphibious operations ships can carry supplies, trucks, tanks, or helicopters. In an emergency, each ship can accommodate up to 700 people.

The naval buildup has given rise to a barrage of rumors about the involvement of Cyprus in military operations in the Middle East.

Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar pilloried Nicosia for actions he said put the entire island’s security at risk amid rising tensions in the Middle East. He said the island of Cyprus as a whole should maintain its neutrality, but the policies pursued by the Republic of Cyprus are producing the opposite effect.

Cypriot government spokesman Konstantinos Letymbiotis dismissed “hybrid acts of disinformation and spreading false news.” “Cyprus is not involved in military operations or any conflict. Humanitarian aid and facilitating evacuations is what we are doing. Those who oppose these actions are against international humanitarian law,” he stressed.

Furthermore, US ambassador to Cyprus Julie Fisher has said the arrival of the USS Wasp was part a pre-scheduled visit, but the ship could be used to support civilians should major hostilities break out in the Middle East.

According to the American New York Times, Russia began sending S-400 air defense systems to Iran upon Tehran's request.T...
09/08/2024

According to the American New York Times, Russia began sending S-400 air defense systems to Iran upon Tehran's request.

This news, which came amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel following the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, was confirmed by Iranian media sources. In addition to the media sources, a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps reported that the S-400 Triumf High Altitude Air Defense System requested from Russia had arrived in Iran.

In addition to the S-400 air defense system, it was reported on August 5 that Russia also sent GT-01 Murmansk-BN electronic warfare systems (EWS) to Iran. Military analysts emphasize that the Iranian Army is taking action to procure these two systems to prevent Israeli missile and air attacks.

While the number of S-400 air defense systems that Russia has sent to Iran remains a mystery for now, the regions where the platforms will be deployed are also unknown.

In addition to the S-300PMU-2 systems currently in active service and purchased in 2016, the Iranian Air Defense Forces inventory includes the 9K37 BUK and 9K330 TOR systems.

The U.S. warned Iran that its new government and economy could suffer a devastating blow if it mounted a major attack ag...
09/08/2024

The U.S. warned Iran that its new government and economy could suffer a devastating blow if it mounted a major attack against Israel.

The message was communicated to Tehran directly and through intermediaries, a U.S. official said. Iran has signaled that it plans to retaliate against Israel for the recent killing of a senior Hamas leader in Tehran.

The Biden administration has tried hard to discourage Iran, its proxies and Israel from undertaking military action that would escalate tensions in the region, as Washington tries to salvage prospects of a cease-fire in the Gaza war.

FRS examines the geostrategic interest of the Greek port of AlexandroupolisDefense Lines has repeatedly referred to this...
08/08/2024

FRS examines the geostrategic interest of the Greek port of Alexandroupolis

Defense Lines has repeatedly referred to this port in northeastern Greece, which has served on numerous occasions as a port of disembarkation for American forces during their rotations in Europe as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve . It has also been used by France during troop rotations under the Eagle mandate in Romania.

NATO countries' interest in the port was heightened after Turkey's decision in February 2022 to close the straits to the Black Sea to all military maritime traffic.

Alexandroupoli, located near the Dardanelles Strait, then appeared as an alternative to the Bosphorus crossing. Already a hub in the eyes of the Pentagon, which unloaded the chartered ro-ro ships there to transport the US armored brigades (the ABCTs) and airmobile brigades, this port constitutes a gateway to Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine. As the FRS study explains, it makes it possible to secure logistical flows and to transport troops and equipment, as well as aid intended for kyiv, to the countries bordering the Black Sea.

(FRS Note No. 18/2024, written by Aris Marghelis and published on August 1, 2024, concerns the Greek port of Alexandroupoli (or Alexandroupolis, in English). This note written in English is titled: "The port of Alexandroupolis: a strategic and geopolitical assessment")

Shipments of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) to France more than doubled in the first half of this year, according t...
07/08/2024

Shipments of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) to France more than doubled in the first half of this year, according to new analyses of trade data, an increase that comes at a time when Europe is attempting to reduce energy purchases that help finance the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine.

Europe has restricted oil imports from Russia, but natural gas is still allowed. And while companies in France are importing the most, one analysis found EU countries overall imported 7% more Russian LNG, natural gas that has been chilled and liquified for easier ocean transport, in the first half of this year compared to the same period a year ago.

The analysis first came from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a U.S. nonprofit with a goal of speeding the world’s transition to more sustainable energy. IEEFA examined data from Kpler, a shipping tracker, and ICIS, a commodity data provider, both of which also provided their own analysis.

>>> The institute said French companies imported almost 4.4 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG in the first half of this year, compared to more than 2 billion cubic meters in the same period a year ago. The next biggest importers, Spain and Belgium, saw a 1% rise and a 16% decline respectively, IEEFA said.

>>> TotalEnergies, the French energy giant that accounted for the largest share of the imports in a list of cargoes between January and June seen by The Associated Press (AP), said it was bound by contracts signed before Russia's Ukraine invasion.

And France's Finance and Economy Ministry told the AP that Houthi rebel attacks on ships moving through the Suez Canal have forced a reshaping of LNG imports – gas from the Middle East can no longer get easily to Europe, while Russia's route from the Arctic has been unaffected.

At the same time France was importing more Russian LNG, it was importing less from other suppliers including the United States, Angola, Cameroon, Egypt and Nigeria – an amount approaching the jump in Russian LNG, according to the analysis. None of those other countries' LNG exports were affected by the Red Sea attacks.

Pricing data for Russian LNG isn't public. But it typically sells for a small discount because some buyers don't want it, said Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence at energy consultants Poten and Partners.
The extra gas isn’t being used by French homes or industry. Demand in France fell 9% in the first half of this year compared to last year. Meanwhile, France’s export of gas by pipeline to Belgium rose almost 10% in the first six months, according to Kpler. It’s not possible to tell how much of that export was Russian LNG.

Russia’s biggest LNG project is in the Arctic Circle’s Yamal Peninsula, a joint venture with TotalEnergies, which owns 20%. Under a contract signed in 2018, TotalEnergies is committed to buying 4 million tons of gas from there annually.

TotalEnergies said by email that it was legally bound to honor its contracts and will do so "as long as European governments deem Russian gas necessary for the European Union’s security of supply.”
Only if new sanctions were imposed could the purchases be suspended, it said. TotalEnergies said its imports of Russian LNG into Europe had actually fallen over the period studied.

An EU Commission spokesperson said imports of Russian gas fell considerably between 2021 and 2023.
A temporary volume increase "does not put into question the EU achievements over the past two years,” spokesperson Adalbert Jahnz said. "We have diversified our imports and the bulk of the necessary gas is supplied by reliable partners, such as Norway and the U.S."

But Razom We Stand’s Savytskyi called for the EU to implement a full embargo on the commodity. TotalEnergies "should not have a free pass to keep Europe hooked on Russian gas," he said.

Ukraine has taken delivery of a second Turkish-built navy corvette, officials said Friday, although they did not specify...
07/08/2024

Ukraine has taken delivery of a second Turkish-built navy corvette, officials said Friday, although they did not specify how the warships might be used in the war against Russia.

The announcement came as Ankara also ratified a free trade agreement (FTA) with Kyiv.

Ukraine's first lady, Olena Zelenska, attended the launching ceremony of the Ada-class corvette during a visit to Türkiye, the Ukrainian Presidency announced on its website.
The corvette Ukraine already had is currently undergoing sea trials.

Turkish Ada-class ships are typically able to strike planes, other ships and submarines.

The corvette was launched during a ceremony in Istanbul on Thursday, attended by Zelenska and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

Ukraine ordered the two Turkish corvettes under an agreement signed in 2020, the presidency said.

Ukrainian authorities last month adopted a Maritime Security Strategy that aims to rebuild its naval capability.
It is also getting help with that from Western partners. The maritime capability coalition, headed by the United Kingdom and Norway, was established last December.

International law forbids the passage of warships through Türkiye's busy Bosporus Strait, which links the Mediterranean and Black seas, during times of war.
However, the presidency's statement didn't say where exactly the Turkish shipyard was located, meaning it could be on the northern side of the strait, with a direct route to Ukraine.

The Ultimate US Stealth Ship...Among the numerous US ships, airplanes and other fighting elements which take position in...
07/08/2024

The Ultimate US Stealth Ship...

Among the numerous US ships, airplanes and other fighting elements which take position in Eastern Mediterranean, as well as the South Arabian Sea in order to deter and face the anticipated Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel, there are indications which suggest that among them has taken position a very stealthy vessel, Ocean Trader, with purpose to execute intelligence gathering as well as special operations strikes against Iran and/or its allies maybe.
The vessel's mission is surrounded by lots of mystery about the operations has been involved in the past as well as its present whereabouts and purpose...

The MV Ocean Trader (ex-Cragside) is a Special Warfare Support vessel operated by the United States Military Sealift Command.

Cragside was launched by Odense Steel Shipyard in 2010, and completed in 2011 for Maersk Line. In November 2013, Maersk was awarded a $73 million contract to convert the ship.

The US Navy's Request For Proposal called for a dual-screw ship capable of sustaining 20 knots speed with a range of 8000 miles, with 45 days endurance for a crew of 50 persons, augmented by a surge of up to 159 additional government personnel, and able to be refueled and re-provisioned underway for an additional 45 days' endurance for all 209 personnel.
The vessel includes capability to embark, hangar, launch and recover all rotary wing aircraft in the SOF inventory up to the size of the MH-53E, provide multiple refueling points for aircraft with a capacity for carrying 150,000 gallons of JP-5 fuel, carry and launch 4 boats of 12.3m length, two simultaneously within 20 minutes, and is able to carry, launch, and recover 8 jet skis and Zodiac inflatables.

Modifications seen include a cavernous double hangar bay on the top deck forward of the bridge, and the conversion of the upper cargo deck immediately beneath the flight deck to handle the launch of boats.

Unseen modifications were to include the addition of multiple dedicated maintenance and repair workshops for aircraft, UAVs, and small craft, dive lockers and service facilities for up to 60 NSWF personnel and their equipment, a 40 person SCIF, 20 person communications suite, berthing for at least 209 personnel, and emergency medical/surgical suite capable of accommodating at least 10 battle casualties.

External FLIR monitoring and six 0.5inch machinegun pintle mounts for local security were also part of the upgrade. Numerous satellite antenna and communication masts are installed on the upper decks. All modifications include the requirement to operate in areas with ambient outside temperatures of 110 °F and sea temps of 95 °F. for extended periods in stationary location, indicating the Horn of Africa and waters contiguous to the Saudi Arabian peninsula would be the ship's primary area of deployment.

The ship was in service as of 2017, and was reported to have operated in the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas. Nowadays it is estimated that operates somewhere nearby the Persian Gulf.

photo source: https://youtu.be/ZBVykpeKn4A?si=z73yboIRTVOaJuIC

Speaking to his ruling party in his hometown of Rize on July 28, 2024, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatene...
07/08/2024

Speaking to his ruling party in his hometown of Rize on July 28, 2024, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to intervene militarily in Israel. “We should be very strong, so that Israel cannot do this stuff to Palestine,” Erdogan said. “Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we can do similar to them,” he promised. Israeli officials responded angrily. After Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz suggested Erdogan’s comments were akin to late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s, the Turkish Foreign Ministry doubled down. “Just as the genocidal Hi**er met his end, so will the genocidal Netanyahu,” it tweeted.

Many Israeli academics and analysts seek to contextualize the threats. Generally, they, alongside many American analysts, downplay Erdogan’s threats. Erdogan is prone to polemic, still trades with Israel, and maintains a Turkish embassy in Tel Aviv. Erdogan is also under fire from his own base for his ineffectiveness. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira continues to hemorrhage value and inflation chafes at ordinary Turks.

Still, it may be a mistake not to take Erdogan at his word. Erdogan makes no secrecy of his anti-Semitism or his hatred of the Jewish state...
..Erdogan especially seeks to restore Turkish influence over Jerusalem and its Islamic holy sites and believes that Palestinians and Arabs would fall in line to answer his call. American policymakers should never forget that ideology can be a drug that clouds judgment and enables delusions of grandeur.
..The true scandal, however, is that if Turkey were to act against Israel, it likely would do so with American weaponry. Certainly, Turkey has its own domestic military industry, largely built on cribbed and stolen American technology, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan pushed through Congress a significant upgrade of Turkey’s airpower, essentially rewarding Erdogan’s NATO extortion. Sullivan thought the deal sophisticated and Kissinger-esque, but in actuality, it reflected his ignorance of Erdogan’s true motivations and his failure to understand that Kissinger’s legacy was a net-negative in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Certainly, Israel’s F-35s trump Turkey’s F-16s, but the avionics upgrades Biden blessed still mean Turkey has significant lethality. Rewarding Erdogan’s antics rather than tying military relations to an end to Turkey’s northern Cyprus occupation also gives Turkey a forward pad from which to launch its drones or missiles. Indeed, Turkey has already bragged that Geçitkale, as it renamed the occupied Lefkoniko Air Base, will be a drone base from which it can strike all of Israel.

Turkey cannot win a war with Israel, especially given Israel’s nuclear deterrent, but the Turkish military can nevertheless do significant damage. Israel is also vulnerable to a partial blockade, as the Houthis interfere with shipping through the Red Sea and Turkey could do likewise with the Eastern Mediterranean.

As diplomats scramble, they should also recognize. Wishful thinking costs lives. Erdogan’s persona today is not a sudden creation but the result of long evolution coupled with the arrogance that comes from believing the West is weak. That he threatens to attack Israel on behalf of Hamas shows his true character. He does so by using weaponry sold and transferred during the Biden administration, which shows Biden, Blinken, and Sullivan’s true characters.

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Who We Are

South Eastern Mediterranean Energy & Defense is a unique Platform dedicated to Energy and Defense developments in the region which aims to:

Publish news, analyses, newsletters and reports, as well as the official views of major stakeholders and key opinion leaders, in order to illustrate the geopolitical parameters that affect the that affect the balance between energy and geopolitical developments, which is a major key element for their strategy.

We are today mostly focused on examining how present events and trends affect future outcomes, such as situational and trend assessments. These assessments are carefully considered within the relevant regional or global context, and often benefit from our deep institutional memory and rich network of contacts from around the world.

Our analyses isolate the real, but often overlooked or misreported significance of specific current events and trends for the region and sometimes, the world. We also increasingly focus on global issues connecting the region with the wider world as these relations indicate the South East Mediterranean & Europe regions’ continued relevance and interrelationship with greater world events.