The C-Word : Unpacking the Constitution

16/06/2024

It's an election, so I'm preparing my usual PR spreadsheet (more complicated now because of boundary changes and more parties that may be relevant). Anyway, part of it calculates the FPTP result. I put in some almost-random numbers based on the polls... this is what I got:

09/06/2024

Your friendly reminder that PR is about representing the whole of the electorate, not just those parts you agree with. It's a democracy thing.

31/05/2024

I note www.electoralcalculus.co.uk has crashed following their absurd MRP prediction...

27/05/2024

4pm, 7th June is the deadline for candidate nominations - 11 days from now. Rumour has it, the Conservatives still have 160 candidates to select. I'm sure this is feasible but it's quite the task and raises the possibility that the governing party will not have a full slate of candidates going into a general election.

27/05/2024

I can't believe the Tories are doubling down on the NatServ idea this morning. Maybe it's just until they launch their big idea for this election... because this can't be it. Can it? Can it? Shove 30k young adults into the Forces and then the other **96%** have to give up 12 weekends a year? Possibly unpaid?
I thought the polls would narrow by about 10-15 points; Labour would win but maybe 40% to 30% instead of 44 to 23. But if the Tory campaign continues like this, Thatcher's 144 and 102 majorities, and Blair's 179, might look like drops in the ocean!

02/01/2024

These two articles demonstrate why I support fixed term parliaments. It’s just good to know the timetable in advance and not have our political discourse chewed up by incessant discussion about a date. Not to mention, of course, the ability discretionary election dates give PMs to hobble the opposition.
The FTPA was far from perfect - governments could not request the House to pass a positive vote of confidence, the date could not be varied slightly on practical grounds, key votes did not count as confidence votes (eg money votes, king’s speech votes etc) - but it brought some welcome predictability to the cycle. They have served Germany well since 1949, Norway since 1814. We would do well to bring them back.

Chris Mason: Get ready - general election talk will dominate 2024 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67771076

Does the Autumn Statement hint at spring election? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67505156

A new year, and all the political parties are focusing their planning and attention on the polls ahead.

13/12/2023

The clock is ticking... look out for us on Spotify and wherever you get your podcasts!