Energy Post (2024)

25/07/2024

The Biden administration has reintroduced Trump’s tariffs on e-bikes from China. That’s 25% tariffs on imported e-bikes and bike components made in China. An additional 25% tariff on Chinese-made battery packs used by e-bikes comes into effect in 2026. Nearly 100% of bicycles sold in the U.S. are manufactured abroad, with the vast majority coming from China. It’s all part of the U.S. policy to counteract unfair subsidies in China and develop domestic supply chains. The big problem is that indiscriminately putting tariffs on China’s clean energy products – EVs included – goes against U.S. climate policy and decarbonisation targets, explains Andrew Campbell at the Energy Institute at Haas. And as there are no domestic U.S. e-bike manufacturers to help or domestic supply chains to strengthen, there will be no immediate benefits. But there will be an immediate downside. Though bike usage in the U.S. is very low, e-bikes can displace cars in a way that ordinary bikes don’t. Powered bikes are so easy to ride, particularly uphill and for long commuter-like distances. The goal should be to reach a critical mass of riders that attracts the doubting car commuters, and motivates local governments to make the sort of bike lane improvements already seen in Cambridge, Massachusetts that bring cyclists onto the streets.

The Biden administration has reintroduced Trump’s tariffs on e-bikes from China. That’s 25% tariffs on imported e-bikes and bike components made in China. An additional 25% tariff on Chinese-made battery packs used by e-bikes comes into effect in 2026. Nearly 100% of bicycles sold in the U.S. ar...

24/07/2024

Producing sustainable e-fuels like ethanol and butanol requires the processing of biofeedstocks. Using microbes to chew their way through them is well known. Justin Rickard at NREL describes research there that has found a much more efficient way, using electron-bifurcating enzymes. Flavin-based bifurcating enzymes are biocatalysts that have evolved to perform efficient metabolic reactions in harsh environments with low nutrients. The researchers have mapped out the complete physical and electronic landscape of flavin electron bifurcating sites. Close study of the process reveals that the enzymes can be fine tuned to maximise the efficiency of the process at the atomic level. Crucially, energetically “uphill” reaction pathways in cells can be found to produce the compounds we need. And cutting the cost of making e-fuels brings them closer to commercialisation.

Producing sustainable e-fuels like ethanol and butanol requires the processing of biofeedstocks. Using microbes to chew their way through them is well known. Justin Rickard at NREL describes research there that has found a much more efficient way, using electron-bifurcating enzymes. Flavin-based bif...

23/07/2024

The world needs a large supply of renewable carbon to replace fossil feedstocks for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation, shipping, chemicals, food and beverage. Arno van den Bos, Karan Kochhar, Luis Janeiro and Francisco Boshell at IRENA present the results of their study to estimate demand, and whether supply can match it through to 2050. The main sources of supply come from alcoholic fermentation, biogas, pulp & paper, and biomass. Each has its own cost profile, and estimates of production capacity. Competition between customers for biogenic CO2 will be fierce, and estimates of demand are made. Aviation and shipping will need it for e-fuels, food will need it for fertilisers and beverages for carbonising drinks, the chemicals sector for feedstocks. And the emerging carbon removal sector may introduce huge demand for carbon usage. These are all rough estimates, say the authors, and more detailed studies are required. But it looks like total demand will exceed supply, and that high-concentration and low cost-biogenic CO2 in particular is a very scarce resource.

The world needs a large supply of renewable carbon to replace fossil feedstocks for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation, shipping, chemicals, food and beverage. Arno van den Bos, Karan Kochhar, Luis Janeiro and Francisco Boshell at IRENA present the results of their study to estimate demand, and whe...

22/07/2024

The new EU Emissions Trading System, ETS 2, covers emissions from buildings, road transport, and additional sectors such as fuel use in small industrial installations. It’s designed to reduce emissions by 42% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Florian Schlenner, Simon Göss and Hendrik Schuldt at carboneer describe how it works, and what firms must do to comply. Comprehensive monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) must be implemented at the company level, and a monitoring plan must be submitted by 31 August this year. From 2027 when the EU ETS 2 is fully operational, emission allowances need to be purchased and surrendered. The pricing of allowances can result in significant cost increases, impacting both operational expenses and consumer prices. As prices are determined by demand and supply they can exhibit significant volatility, with forecasts ranging from €48 to €340 per tCO2 by 2030. Given these implications, firms should already be putting the resources in place to ensure the strict rules and deadlines are adhered to, say the authors.

The new EU Emissions Trading System, ETS 2, covers emissions from buildings, road transport, and additional sectors such as fuel use in small industrial installations. It’s designed to reduce emissions by 42% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Florian Schlenner, Simon Göss and Hendrik Schuldt at ca...

19/07/2024

There are three big reasons why Europe’s auto industry should be given binding targets to increase the green steel content of their cars through to 2040. First, conventional steel production is a high-emissions activity, and both users and producers are struggling to bring it down. Second, emerging green steel producers need to secure major guaranteed users (the auto industry is steel’s second biggest customer) as this is their greatest bottleneck for investment. A new study by T&E argues for at least 40% of steel in new cars to be green by 2030, rising to 75% in 2035 and 100% in 2040. Which brings us to the third big reason: the 40% target would add just €57 to the sticker price of an EV in 2030, the cost of a single tyre change! And 100% green steel by 2040 will add only €8 due to CO2 pricing as well as the falling costs of green steel production. The targets should be introduced via the EU End-of-life Vehicles (ELV) regulation, currently being revised by lawmakers, says T&E.

There are three big reasons why Europe’s auto industry should be given binding targets to increase the green steel content of their cars through to 2040. First, conventional steel production is a high-emissions activity, and both users and producers are struggling to bring it down. Second, emergin...

18/07/2024

The main purpose of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is to put a price on emissions and generate revenues from companies buying allowances for creating those emissions. Right now energy, manufacturing and aviation are covered. From 2027, maritime transport will be added to the existing EU ETS, while buildings and road transport will be regulated in the upcoming ETS2. From then, nearly 80% of total EU emissions will be under the ETS and ETS2. As Matteo Mazzarano at the Florence School of Regulation explains, the whole mechanism is supposed to be progressive, meaning high earners should bear the brunt of the cost implications, while low income groups are protected or compensated. But carbon pricing appears to have a “Laffer Curve”: revenues rise as prices rise up to a point, after which revenues can actually fall because of the strength of the disincentive of those high prices. That will leave less money to compensate the low income groups as decarbonisation progresses. This is an issue that needs to be addressed by all policy-makers, says Mazzarano. Will the various funds that support the mechanism, as well as state-aid, need to have their rules changed to ensure the ETS remains progressive?

The main purpose of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is to put a price on emissions and generate revenues from companies buying allowances for creating those emissions. Right now energy, manufacturing and aviation are covered. From 2027, maritime transport will be added to the existing EU ET...

17/07/2024

Biofuel producers are always looking for low carbon intensity feedstocks. Corn stover (the waste from harvested corn) is typical, but harvesting is seasonal. Jeffrey Wolf at NREL explains how research has led to the development of XanoGrass. It is a perennial, so can be harvested all year round. It can be grown on marginal or even “unfarmable” lands, so existing food crops won’t be displaced. No special farming equipment is needed, so existing farmers can easily take up a new revenue stream. Pilots are running in Europe and the U.S. Costs are already anticipated to be 20% cheaper than corn stover, and further cost reductions are expected. And being a hardy crop it grows in hot and cold climates, so if successful should get global attention.

Biofuel producers are always looking for low carbon intensity feedstocks. Corn stover (the waste from harvested corn) is typical, but harvesting is seasonal. Jeffrey Wolf at NREL explains how research has led to the development of XanoGrass. It is a perennial, so can be harvested all year round. It....

16/07/2024

To reach the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the world needs to triple renewable power capacity by 2030. Here, the IEA summarises its report “COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking countries’ ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap”. The report looks at almost 150 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which set out each country’s plans, and also looks at actual progress (which in many countries exceed their stated plans). The world appears to be on track to reach almost 8,000 GW globally in 2030, but that is still short of the 11,000 GW of installed renewable capacity needed. The report breaks down ambitions and implementations across nations and regions. Nearly 30 countries aim to increase their renewable capacity by two to three times by 2030, accounting for almost three-quarters of global ambition, led by China, the United States, India, Germany and Spain. The IEA gives its detailed recommendations for achieving the target, which include streamlining permitting, accelerating the integration of variable renewables, and reducing financing costs to improve the bankability of projects.

To reach the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the world needs to triple renewable power capacity by 2030. Here, the IEA summarises its report “COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking countries’ ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap”. The re...

15/07/2024

The newly elected Labour government in the UK is promising to create a state-owned entity, GB Energy, to drive forward its energy transition. Robert Johnston at CGEP explains what it is, and how it could be a model for other nations. Up until now, the policy toolkit of high-income OECD countries has primarily been the use of subsidies, tax credits, government procurement, R&D grants, trade policy and the like. GB Energy will directly invest in companies operating in key areas. There are no plans for nationalisation, nor to become an actual operator like the long list of post-war state-owned enterprises that included British Steel and British Coal. The point is not to crowd out private money but to attract it in on the large scale that is needed and has so far been seriously lacking, by show leadership through its investments and stakeholdings. Johnston looks at the significant difference between GB Energy and previous nationalisations, as well as other similar entities already playing such a role in other countries, including France, Norway, Canada and the U.S.

The newly elected Labour government in the UK is promising to create a state-owned entity, GB Energy, to drive forward its energy transition. Robert Johnston at CGEP explains what it is, and how it could be a model for other nations. Up until now, the policy toolkit of high-income OECD countries has...

12/07/2024

EU Member States have inadvertently supported with their own subsidies the renewable energy targets of other Member States, a practice that violates EU internal market rules, explains Kim Talus at UEF Law School. He looks at how Denmark subsidised Danish biomethane producers who exported to Sweden, where Swedish consumers were benefitting from subsidies already. This promoted Danish biomethane producers at the expense of rivals. In December 2022 the EU General Court forced a rethink, and rules are now in place to stop this happening, and now inspection, monitoring and enforcement are required. It’s vitally important because subsidies will play a greater role for a long time to come as the transition rolls out and cross-border trade grows. The challenge is balancing the complexity of multiple state incentives with a level playing field between states. The internal market should not be about a race for the highest subsidies, but about competition based on affordability and quality of products, says Talus. Getting this wrong means raising the total price tag for everyone, and undercutting social acceptance of the transition as a whole.

EU Member States have inadvertently supported with their own subsidies the renewable energy targets of other Member States, a practice that violates EU internal market rules, explains Kim Talus at UEF Law School. He looks at how Denmark subsidised Danish biomethane producers who exported to Sweden,....

11/07/2024

Donald Trump has always backed oil and gas, and U.S. industry giants donated $7.3m to his campaign, three times more than for his 2020 run. Joe Biden has introduced green energy policies and other transition legislation, though he has also overseen an increase in domestic oil production and promised motorists he will keep petrol prices low. Both candidates know that U.S. voters are particularly sensitive to the price of their gasoline, in a land in love with the car, explains Emilie Rutledge at The Open University. So that’s what we should be watching, not Biden’s senior moments, Trump’s court cases, immigration and wokeism. She explains why prices may well strongly influence the outcome of the November presidential election. Rutledge looks at the different moving parts, including the low uptake of EVs compared to Europe and China, the geopolitics that drives international prices, Biden’s policies, and domestic production.

Donald Trump has always backed oil and gas, and U.S. industry giants donated $7.3m to his campaign, three times more than for his 2020 run. Joe Biden has introduced green energy policies and other transition legislation, though he has also overseen an increase in domestic oil production and promised...

10/07/2024

It looks brilliantly simple. Why are onshore wind turbines smaller than offshore ones? Because you have to move them to their location by road, over bridges, through tunnels and around curves. That limits their size. As Michael Purton, writing for WEF, explains it’s why the company Radia is building the world’s biggest aeroplane called WindRunner (12 times the volume of a Boeing 747), big enough to carry turbine blades over 100m long. And the plane only needs a short unpaved runway. Onshore, the power market is 20 times bigger. And bigger turbines mean locations with lower wind speeds become commercially viable. Mass deployment will bring down power prices and accelerate the renewables GW rollout. Radia says this new approach can triple the acreage in the world where wind deployment can happen. WindRunner is still in development, but Radia say a fairly sizable fleet will be operating before 2029, with the initial flights happening well before that.

It looks brilliantly simple. Why are onshore wind turbines smaller than offshore ones? Because you have to move them to their location by road, over bridges, through tunnels and around curves. That limits their size. As Michael Purton, writing for WEF, explains it’s why the company Radia is buildi...

09/07/2024

After good progress globally since 2015, basic energy access reversed in recent years for the first time in a decade, says the IEA. The 2024 edition of “Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report” measures progress on “strategic development goals” that include universal access to electricity and clean cooking, doubling historic levels of efficiency improvements, and substantially increasing the share of renewables in the global energy mix. The starkest finding is that the number of people without access to electricity increased because the population grew — mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa — at a higher rate than that of new electricity connections, leaving 685m people without electricity in 2022, 10m more than in 2021. A combination of factors contributed to this including the global energy crisis, inflation, growing debt distress in many low-income countries, and increased geopolitical tensions. One promising positive trend is the rollout of decentralised energy solutions, largely based on renewables, particularly in rural areas where eight in ten people without access live today. But that still means 2.1 bn people still live without access to clean cooking fuels and technologies, with the number remaining largely flat last year. The report specifically covers access to electricity, access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking, renewables, energy efficiency, and international public financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy.

After good progress globally since 2015, basic energy access reversed in recent years for the first time in a decade, says the IEA. The 2024 edition of “Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report” measures progress on “strategic development goals” that include universal access to electricity...

08/07/2024

12 EU countries are on track to miss their 2030 national climate targets by a large margin, according to a study by T&E. That means they will have to buy carbon credits on such a large scale there will be few left for others to buy their way out of missing their own targets (leaving them facing court cases). Germany and Italy are the two worst performing countries, with France on track by a very close margin. Germany will have to pay over-achieving countries as much as €16bn to buy credits, and Italy €15bn, at a time when their budgets are painfully tight. Countries face a clear choice: pay billions to their neighbours for their carbon debt, or implement new policies. Those new policies should be centred around the electrification of vehicles and insulating buildings, says T&E. #2030

12 EU countries are on track to miss their 2030 national climate targets by a large margin, according to a study by T&E. That means they will have to buy carbon credits on such a large scale there will be few left for others to buy their way out of missing their own targets (leaving […]

04/07/2024

UCO (Used Cooking Oil) is a feedstock for biofuels. In 2023, European countries consumed close to seven million tonnes of UCO for biofuels. This is four times the continent’s maximum potential for supplying it domestically, so the rest comes from imports, mostly from China, Malaysia and Indonesia. The vast majority is blended for biodiesel to use in cars and trucks. UCO accounted for one third of conventional biodiesel feedstocks and a quarter of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) biofuels volumes in 2023. But there are two big questions to be answered regarding this solution’s future, says T&E. How will supply match growing demand? And who is checking the imported UCO is genuine and not virgin vegetable oil, implying fraud and environmental consequences? T&E quotes a study that exposes irregularities: for example, Malaysia already exports three times more UCO than it collects, spurred on by the high incentives for advanced and waste biofuels in Europe. T&E end with their recommendations.

UCO (Used Cooking Oil) is a feedstock for biofuels. In 2023, European countries consumed close to seven million tonnes of UCO for biofuels. This is four times the continent’s maximum potential for supplying it domestically, so the rest comes from imports, mostly from China, Malaysia and Indonesia....

03/07/2024

How do you double or triple your existing power transmission capacity when costs are rising and you face local opposition to the disruption? Zach Winn at MIT describes a new innovation that uses superconductors designed to transport five to 10 times the amount of power of conventional transmission lines, using essentially the same footprint and voltage level, carried on otherwise standard overhead lines. The superconducting cables (with much of the innovation coming from the nuclear industry) are enabled by a proprietary cooling system. Tests are now delivering transmission capacity of up to 400 MW, with several GW being the future target. Interested customers include utilities, data centres, industrial companies and renewable energy developers, with the first commercial-scale pilot due in 2026.

How do you double or triple your existing power transmission capacity when costs are rising and you face local opposition to the disruption? Zach Winn at MIT describes a new innovation that uses superconductors designed to transport five to 10 times the amount of power of conventional transmission l...

02/07/2024

The recycling of lithium-ion batteries is vitally important to the future of electric power, explains Gregg Smith at Orbia Advance, writing for WEF. Making a battery has a significant carbon footprint of its own. Yet recycling can be one tenth the cost of manufacturing a battery from scratch. And energy security is enhanced by lessening dependence on mining countries and other suppliers. It’s why Europe will require new batteries to contain at least 6% recycled lithium and nickel by 2031, and the U.S. state of New Jersey made it illegal to discard EV batteries in landfills. But wide and large scale recycling will need policy alignment and – crucially – the private sector to innovate, particularly as the first wave of EVs are now nearing end of life, says Smith. And innovations are on the horizon for graphite recycling, electrolyte and lithium recovery. It can be done: we only have to look to the success of lead acid batteries that are largely recycled today.

The recycling of lithium-ion batteries is vitally important to the future of electric power, explains Gregg Smith at Orbia Advance, writing for WEF. Making a battery has a significant carbon footprint of its own. Yet recycling can be one tenth the cost of manufacturing a battery from scratch. And en...

01/07/2024

About one-quarter of global emissions are, to varying degrees, covered by carbon pricing schemes. They’ve raised over $500bn from polluters to date. Andrew Reid at NorthStone Advisers, writing for IEEFA, summarises his report which says the annual amount raised, now almost $100bn, is set to increase with two-thirds of nations planning to use carbon pricing in their Nationally Defined Contributions. And the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its Emissions Trading System (ETS) will put pressure on its trading partners to implement some form of carbon pricing system. Reid notes that carbon pricing’s main role is to incentivise decarbonisation and provide additional funding for the transition. That’s because it’s not nearly extensive enough to be seen as true ‘polluter pays’ compensation for climate damage: global receipts were only 1% of the economic cost of climate change in 2022.

About one-quarter of global emissions are, to varying degrees, covered by carbon pricing schemes. They’ve raised over $500bn from polluters to date. Andrew Reid at NorthStone Advisers, writing for IEEFA, summarises his report which says the annual amount raised, now almost $100bn, is set to increa...

28/06/2024

Today’s fossil energy system is very inefficient: almost two-thirds of all primary energy is wasted in energy production, transportation, and use, before fossil fuel has done any work or produced any benefit. That’s almost 400 EJ wasted, worth over $4.5tn, or almost 5% of global GDP. Two activities – fossil fuel power plants and internal combustion engines – are responsible for almost half the energy waste globally. Daan Walter, Kingsmill Bond, Amory Lovins, Laurens Speelman, Chiara Gulli and Sam Butler-Sloss at RMI present their evidence, breaking down the chain of energy losses. The superior efficiency of renewables, localisation, electrification and associated new solutions are, in themselves and beyond their cleanness, driving the energy transition away from fossil fuels, say the authors.

Today’s fossil energy system is very inefficient: almost two-thirds of all primary energy is wasted in energy production, transportation, and use, before fossil fuel has done any work or produced any benefit. That’s almost 400 EJ wasted, worth over $4.5tn, or almost 5% of global GDP. Two activit...

27/06/2024

Inflows into ESG (environmental, social, and governance) funds remain strong, especially in Europe. That’s despite high interest rates and the boost to oil and gas from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to a new report by Ramnath Iyer at IEEFA, in 2023 the performance of ESG funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) matched or surpassed that of traditional funds and ETFs. Morningstar figures reveal that sustainable funds had a median return of 12.6% versus 8.6% for traditional funds. And in the first quarter of 2024, Europe saw an inflow of almost $11bn into the ESG asset class. However, in the U.S. the politicisation of green energy has resulted in outflows. Iyer summarises his review of actual performance, the constraints on ESG funds, fund flows, and regional differences.

Inflows into ESG (environmental, social, and governance) funds remain strong, especially in Europe. That’s despite high interest rates and the boost to oil and gas from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to a new report by Ramnath Iyer at IEEFA, in 2023 the performance of ESG funds and exch...

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