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Africa Confidential The world’s leading newsletter on political and economic commentary across the continent since 1960.

Africa Confidential is produced and published by Asempa Limited.

After protests made the a target – encouraging to raise taxes – it’s set to engage in a series of meetings with Tr...
01/11/2024

After protests made the a target – encouraging to raise taxes – it’s set to engage in a series of meetings with Treasury Secretary John , discussing whether to release US$600 million from its $3.9bn loan facility.

Pushing out Gachagua could cost the President votes and doesn’t alleviate the deepening financial woes

Despite the warnings of ‘overlapping and interconnected crises’ that disproportionately affects ‘low-income economies’, ...
01/11/2024

Despite the warnings of ‘overlapping and interconnected crises’ that disproportionately affects ‘low-income economies’, the continues to focus on modest incremental policy changes rather than ambitious systematic reforms at its annual meeting.

Along with climate change and geopolitical tensions, deepening instability is holding back growth in many African economies

A $500 million dollar loan provided by the to is likely to quell resistance in the military, pay for victory in the ...
01/11/2024

A $500 million dollar loan provided by the to is likely to quell resistance in the military, pay for victory in the upcoming local and parliamentary elections on 29 December and help pay for the costs of recent floods in .

UAE leader Mohamed bin Zayed will want political and other favours in return for his hefty investment in Mahamat Kaka

’s domestic cocoa production has been hit by swollen-shoot virus disease and the country’s Cocoa Board (Cocobod) has an...
01/11/2024

’s domestic cocoa production has been hit by swollen-shoot virus disease and the country’s Cocoa Board (Cocobod) has announced a controversial new purchasing regime. According to the , this could further undermine national finances.

Bondholders have accepted a Eurobond workout, but big financing difficulties remain

Bola makes good on a promise to reshuffle his cabinet on the back of periodic performance reports - however, most of t...
01/11/2024

Bola makes good on a promise to reshuffle his cabinet on the back of periodic performance reports - however, most of those fired are political deadweights, and all seven former governors in Tinubu’s cabinet remain.

Economic hardship and political frustration are worsening but the president endorses most of his cabinet

The African Caucus welcomed the board’s third seat, a 50% increase in Fund quotas, a boost to the Poverty Reduction ...
01/11/2024

The African Caucus welcomed the board’s third seat, a 50% increase in Fund quotas, a boost to the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust’s firepower, and other measures in but pointedly called for ‘quota realignment’ towards members.

Along with climate change and geopolitical tensions, deepening instability is holding back growth in many African economies

With ’s access to finance and international markets crippled by , the country was pushing for more progress on an alte...
01/11/2024

With ’s access to finance and international markets crippled by , the country was pushing for more progress on an alternative payments system, re-insurance facility and contingent reserve facility at last week’s summit.

While the BRICS summit made limited headway, the US and EU should not underestimate the strength of antipathy to the multilateral institutions

Rumour has it that ’s secretive President Issayas is planning a rare congress of his country’s only legal party, the ...
01/11/2024

Rumour has it that ’s secretive President Issayas is planning a rare congress of his country’s only legal party, the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice, where he will discuss the appointment of his son, Abraham, as his successor.

, There are indications Eritrea’s secretive president Issayas Afewerki is planning a rare congress of the country’s only legal party – the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ).

Former Ivorian Trade Minister, Jean-Louis Billon, has announced his intention to become the nominee for the presidency...
01/11/2024

Former Ivorian Trade Minister, Jean-Louis Billon, has announced his intention to become the nominee for the presidency in 2025. This opens up a contest between him and Tidjane Thiam, who was overwhelmingly elected president of the party in January.

, The Parti démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI), which ruled the country unopposed between independence in 1960 and the country’s first coup in 1999, wants back in. But the road back to power is strewn with obstacles. A major issue is how to achieve party unity behind one candidate, and this ...

leader Venâncio rose to popularity on a platform of non-violence. This does not sit easily with a video hinting the ...
01/11/2024

leader Venâncio rose to popularity on a platform of non-violence. This does not sit easily with a video hinting the military was supporting his cause. Worried diplomats have warned his confrontation with could spin out of control.

, A politician and part-time pastor, Podemos leader Venâncio Mondlane has dragged Mozambique to the brink of ending nearly 50 years of single-party rule by Frelimo.

’s bondholders have backed an exchange offer for $13 billion in . The deal is close to completion, and Ghana’s June Me...
01/11/2024

’s bondholders have backed an exchange offer for $13 billion in . The deal is close to completion, and Ghana’s June Memorandum of Understanding with official creditors is paving the way for restructuring $5.1bn of bilateral debts.

Bondholders have accepted a Eurobond workout, but big financing difficulties remain

’s Minister of Women Affairs, Uju Kennedy-Ohanenye, was axed after President Bola received dozens of petitions agains...
01/11/2024

’s Minister of Women Affairs, Uju Kennedy-Ohanenye, was axed after President Bola received dozens of petitions against her. Last year, she accused the of diverting funds meant for poor Nigerians and threatened to sue the organisation.

Economic hardship and political frustration are worsening but the president endorses most of his cabinet

Although last week’s meetings have not delivered reforms and policy announcements sufficient to satisfy the sceptics, ...
01/11/2024

Although last week’s meetings have not delivered reforms and policy announcements sufficient to satisfy the sceptics, and developments during and prior to the event provide modest ground for optimism.

Along with climate change and geopolitical tensions, deepening instability is holding back growth in many African economies

While last week’s summit made little progress on an alternative to Western financial systems, the EU and the US would ...
01/11/2024

While last week’s summit made little progress on an alternative to Western financial systems, the EU and the US would be wise not to underestimate how strongly African leaders feel that the multilateral institutions give them a raw deal.

While the BRICS summit made limited headway, the US and EU should not underestimate the strength of antipathy to the multilateral institutions

Opposition presidential candidate Venâncio has called for security forces to join the millions on the streets on 31 Oc...
01/11/2024

Opposition presidential candidate Venâncio has called for security forces to join the millions on the streets on 31 October in protest against what he insists is a rigged result - causing worries of military intervention.

Presidential contender Mondlane’s supporters are preparing to confront Frelimo on the streets

Desperate for cash in wake of costly election victory, ’s President ‘ ’ has been provided a $500 million loan with a me...
01/11/2024

Desperate for cash in wake of costly election victory, ’s President ‘ ’ has been provided a $500 million loan with a mere 1% interest rate by the . In exchange, the UAE will expect to strengthen its support Sudan’s .

UAE leader Mohamed bin Zayed will want political and other favours in return for his hefty investment in Mahamat Kaka

’s President Bola has sacked five of his ministers and made seven new appointments. He replaced his media-shy Ministe...
01/11/2024

’s President Bola has sacked five of his ministers and made seven new appointments. He replaced his media-shy Minister of Youth Jamila Ibrahim with Ayodele Olawande, who is also an acolyte of the President’s influential son, Seyi Tinubu.

Economic hardship and political frustration are worsening but the president endorses most of his cabinet

Lúcia da Luz Ribeiro, President of 's Constitutional Council has called for the Comissão Nacional de Eleições to releas...
01/11/2024

Lúcia da Luz Ribeiro, President of 's Constitutional Council has called for the Comissão Nacional de Eleições to release results from every polling station. Backed by the force of law, the request will directly test the ’s credibility.

Presidential contender Mondlane’s supporters are preparing to confront Frelimo on the streets

With calls by Secretary-General Baroness Scotland to readmit , US and EU leaders are sceptical - with Biden reimposin...
01/11/2024

With calls by Secretary-General Baroness Scotland to readmit , US and EU leaders are sceptical - with Biden reimposing Magnitsky Act sanction only this year on Mnangagwa and leaders.

Top Commonwealth officials and senior British diplomats favour bringing Harare back into the fold – despite a damning report on last year’s elections

Human rights groups and the opposition in are strongly opposed to the undercover moves to get readmitted to the The ...
31/10/2024

Human rights groups and the opposition in are strongly opposed to the undercover moves to get readmitted to the The Commonwealth, exclusively reported in today.

Top Commonwealth officials and senior British diplomats favour bringing Harare back into the fold – despite a damning report on last year’s elections

A secret Commonwealth report on the August 2023 elections witnessed events which ‘severely affect the overall credibil...
31/10/2024

A secret Commonwealth report on the August 2023 elections witnessed events which ‘severely affect the overall credibility, transparency and inclusivity of the election.’ The report was under wraps until Africa Confidential saw it.

Top Commonwealth officials and senior British diplomats favour bringing Harare back into the fold – despite a damning report on last year’s elections

Outgoing Secretary-General Baroness Scotland has been spearheading a quiet effort to get re-admitted to the organisa...
30/10/2024

Outgoing Secretary-General Baroness Scotland has been spearheading a quiet effort to get re-admitted to the organisation, so far without luck.

Top Commonwealth officials and senior British diplomats favour bringing Harare back into the fold – despite a damning report on last year’s elections

Panduleni Itula’s Independent Patriots for Change ( ) are likely to be main gainers when Namibians go to the polls on 27...
30/10/2024

Panduleni Itula’s Independent Patriots for Change ( ) are likely to be main gainers when Namibians go to the polls on 27 November, and hope to build a base in and , both of which they took from in the 2020 local elections.

As the country prepares to hold a general election, its main opposition party has objected to the South African company hired to print the ballots

The is in trouble trying to get readmitted after 20 years. AC has obtained a copy of the highly critical election mo...
30/10/2024

The is in trouble trying to get readmitted after 20 years. AC has obtained a copy of the highly critical election monitoring report which the body has been keeping under wraps.

Top Commonwealth officials and senior British diplomats favour bringing Harare back into the fold – despite a damning report on last year’s elections

leaders have been secretly trying to get readmitted to The Commonwealth, ignoring evidence of subversion of the rule...
30/10/2024

leaders have been secretly trying to get readmitted to The Commonwealth, ignoring evidence of subversion of the rule of law and electoral fraud. AC has seen its own secret report on last year’s election.

Top Commonwealth officials and senior British diplomats favour bringing Harare back into the fold – despite a damning report on last year’s elections

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