22/08/2024
In Blossburg, PA this morning for the annual Tioga/Bradford County equipment show!
Providing custom weather solutions for businesses across the Twin Tiers and Finger Lakes region.
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In Blossburg, PA this morning for the annual Tioga/Bradford County equipment show!
Rain and graupel showers galore!
They didn’t teach us this in meteorology school! How cool!
Fall-like Weather Forecast this Week...
A cut-off upper-level low pressure system will be in charge of our weather through Wednesday, delivering rounds of drizzle and showers, strong winds, and below average temperatures.
Our daily highs will generally hold in the 60's with overnight low's ranging in the Mid-40's to Low 50's!
Thankfully temperatures look to rebound late this week, returning back to the 80's by Friday or Saturday!
Reports of significant flash flooding coming out of Suffolk County, NY (Long Island) tonight include multiple water rescues from the 6-11” of rainfall that fell from this system. At one point rain rates peaked between 3-4”/hr.
Over a foot of rain was reported earlier near Oxford, CT from this same system where a Flash Flood Emergency was also declared overnight.
What’s going on with this weather folks?
Potential tornado near Forest City, PA moving northeast into Wayne County as of 3:54pm.
Flash Flood Warning also in effect for this area thru 5:30pm.
Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain tracking through the Poconos as of 3:30pm.
Watch for locally damaging wind gusts and changing road conditions caused my torrential rain rates up to 2.0”/hr.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming this afternoon for portions of eastern & central PA and into the central mid-Atlantic...
Isolated damaging wind gusts, pea to nickel sized hail, and a very isolated tornado are the primary concerns.
Heavy thunderstorm slowly tracking near Galeton and heading towards Westfield.
This area is very sensitive due to saturated soils and can only handle about an 1.0-1.5” of rainfall in a 3hr period. Anything more and flash flooding would result.
Keep watch for more storms across this region through the afternoon.
We are currently monitoring the threat for flash flooding tonight thru Sunday for portions of north-central & eastern PA, including Potter, Tioga, Lycoming, Sullivan, and Monroe Counties.
Clouds to the left, smoke to the right...
Canadian wildfire smoke has drifted down into New England and portions of the Northeast, but thankfully air quality will not be severely impacted here with just Moderate air quality (level 2/6) through tonight.
If you look off to the east, you can definitely see the haze this morning!
Denial
The Nile
West Nile…
It’s back! Or just never went away 🤷♀️
West Nile virus found in Stroudsburg.
Get your lawn mowed this week as we have a weekend full of clouds and rain coming our way! 🌧️
Potential for 0.5-2.0” through Monday
Despite strong solar activity reaching Earth this evening, the Bz index has become positive, which is less favorable for auroras here in the northern hemisphere.
Certainly conditions may change through the night but it appears our chances for tonight may be diminishing.
If anyone work up early this morning to get a view of the meteor shower, you may have also gotten to see the Northern Lights!
A G4 geomagnetic storm is now in progress and the Kp index is up to 8 here at midday. (During April's impressive northern lights show, the Kp index was 9!)
Hard to say if this geomagnetic storm will persist into tonight; but it is currently outperforming going forecasts.
Life threatening situation happening in northwestern Tioga County, PA and western Steuben County, NY.
The Cowanesque River in Westfield, PA is now at a new record high of 12ft as of 12:30PM, beating out the prior record set back in 1996.
Numerous water rescues are ongoing with folks stranded and homes being washed away. The borough of Westfield is currently being evacuated. Please keep these people in your prayers today...
Widespread flooding is ongoing across portions of Potter, northwestern Tioga, and western Steuben Counties with anywhere from 2.5-5.0” being reported as of 11:45am.
Tornado Warning in Susquehanna County through 11:15am…
Radar indicating some weak rotation along this line of heavy rain with potential for quick moving, isolated tornadoes over the next half hour.
Folks in Binghamton / Broome County may also need to watch closely as this line moves northward into your area.
Heaviest rainfall rates are focusing from Williamsport to Corning this morning with flash flooding being reported along this path.
There is a clear evident westward shift in storm track from what most models had been depicting the last few days.
This shift should reduce the overall flooding impacts for the eastern half of the Twin Tiers today. 🤞
Much of Eastern PA is under a tornado watch through early this afternoon.
Very possible this watch will expanded into portions of NY as well, including Broome County.
The northeast quadrant of a tropical cyclone is generally home to the strongest sustained winds and is known for spawning off quick moving, but generally, weaker (EF0-EF1) tornadoes.
Tropical Storm Debby is no different as a few tornadoes have been reported across portions of North Carolina over the past 24 hours... This tornado risk will shift northward into eastern Pennsylvania on Friday along with the threat for isolated damaging wind gusts.
The issuance of Tornado Watches are looking fairly possible for Friday across the 5% tornado risk area (below) along the I-81 Corridor.
Friday's Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the Weather Predication Center (WPC)...
Slight westward adjustments in the Moderate Risk region below continue as the corridor of heaviest rainfall from what will be Tropical Depression Debby will likely focus across the central portion of Pennsylvania and into south-central NY.
Keep an eye on things if you live in a flood-prone area or next to streams & creeks as things may get ugly by Friday afternoon.
Double Trouble with the threat of Flash Flooding and Severe Weather across Central & Eastern Pennsylvania Today...
We have been very busy and in constant communication with some of our partners across north-central PA and the Poconos over the last 36-hours, keeping them ahead of this threat (pictured below).
We are also actively monitoring the track of Tropical Storm Debby, which is anticipated to bring widespread flooding to Pennsylvania and New York late Thursday into Friday night. Pending the final track, we could be seeing 2 - 5" of rainfall in a 12-18 hour period, flooding some area creeks and even rivers.
Damaging wind gusts and 0.5” hail being reported in Broome and Susquehanna Counties…
Also a couple of flash flood warnings have been posted across Tioga County NY.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch through this Afternoon…
May get some nice hail stones out of todays storms and locally damaging wind gusts… Storms already tracking through western NY and into the Finger Lakes region here at 2pm.
Photos from today’s Flash Floods in Forks Twp curtesy of Forksville Vol. Fire Co.
Not even a single Flash Flood Warning from the National Weather Service for this area.
Meanwhile our team was in constant communications with Cherry Twp just east of this area who was thankfully spared from significant rain damage.
Water Rescue ongoing in Forks Twp, Sullivan County, PA…
Some impressive rain rates coming out of Dushore area, exceeding 2.0”/hr.
A portion of northeastern Sullivan County recorded between 1-2” of rain within 30 min with heaviest rain moving into SE Bradford and Wyoming Counties.
Some flooding of low-lying areas will be possible this afternoon in NEPA into parts of the Wyoming Valley and down into the Poconos.
Some reports of street flooding in the Southern Tier. Chemung County has 2” and counting where the system is pivoting around.
Returning showers and isolated storms remain possible on the PA side late this afternoon…
Some localized instances of flash flooding is possible this afternoon with rainfall amounts of 1-3" forecast across parts of the region. (Model image below)
Remain vigilant of changing road conditions as rainfall rates may exceed 2.0"/hr in spots over the next few hours.
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Thunderstorms are currently developing in west-central PA this morning and are anticipated to generally track eastward into north-central and northeastern PA during the mid-afternoon. Some isolated severe wind gusts may develop in north-central PA through the Poconos with just a pop up shower or storm chance across the Twin Tiers this afternoon/evening.
And all that is now And all that is gone And all that's to come And everything under the sun is in tune But the sun is eclipsed by the moon... -Pink Floyd
Today’s earthquake was brought to you by the Ramapo Fault System. The Ramapo Fault is part of a system of strike-slip or normal faults, which are mapped from southeastern New York to northern New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania. This roughly 9-mile deep crack in the Earth’s crust is believed to be nearly 200 million years old and was an important and very active fault during the evolution of the Appalachians. While today’s quake was only considered moderate in intensity, it is believed to be one of the largest quakes on this fault in the last century or two. The largest known quake was estimated at a 5.3 magnitude back in 1783…
Who Remembers?? 31 years ago, after dumping record snowfall on parts of the South (17" in Birmingham, Alabama), the '93 Superstorm pushed into the Northeast on March 13, 1993 delivering blizzard conditions and between 20-30" on top of the foot of snow that was already on the ground prior to the storm. Many folks across the Eastern U.S. were left without power for several days and a memory that would last a lifetime. Fast forward 31 years, temperatures are in the 60's here in the Twin Tiers with no snow in sight.
First Maple Tap of 2024! With overnight lows expected to dip below freezing starting Friday night and daytime high temperatures in the Mid-30's to 40's through next week, the sap will surely be flowing. This diurnal temperature fluctuation creates pressure in the tree, which allows the sap to run more efficiently. Don't worry, it doesn't hurt the tree! Rule of thumb is to pick trees at least 12" in diameter although 10" will do on a healthy tree. Some trees can hold multiple taps depending how wide they are.
34F and still snowing in the township at 2:30pm. And here we were worried about it raining 😂
Interesting downward trend for this weekend's snow storm... Probability of 4"+ over the last few days of model runs (Note this is NOT my forecast and snowfall amounts are depicted at a 10:1 snowfall ratio so the probabilities depicted below are likely on the low side for the PA/NY border) The bullseye looking like it may set up across central PA and into the Pocono mountains!
My daughter loves the snow as much as I do! (Volume up)
Video of yesterday’s wind on the Elsbree Farm in Athens Twp. Any guesses to how fast this might be??
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Please pray for the folks in Guam... Super Typhoon Mawar expected to make landfall on the island in less than 18 hours as a high-end Category 4 or Category 5 equivalent hurricane.
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