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01/12/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season,
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions
warrant.

27/11/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

23/11/2023

Mixed conditions existed during the drought-monitoring period, with torrential rainfall in parts of Florida contrasting with worsening dryness or drought farther north. By November 21, at the end of the period, significant rain overspread western sections of the region, including Alabama, arresting drought intensification. On November 19, before the rain arrived, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated topsoil moisture 83% very short to short in Alabama, while 64% of the state’s pastures were rated very poor to poor. Effects of any rain that fell after the data cutoff on November 21 will be reflected next week. Earlier in southern Florida, November 13-16 rainfall officially reached 12.47 inches in North Fort Lauderdale; 10.76 inches in Fort Lauderdale; 10.26 inches in Pembroke Pines; 9.89 inches in Opa Locka; and 8.84 inches in Miami. For all those locations, the heaviest rain fell on November 15, with Miami reporting 7.53 inches. That represented the wettest November day in Miami since November 18, 1992, when 7.56 inches fell. It was also Miami’s wettest day during any time of year since May 22, 2012, when rainfall totaled 9.70 inches. Meanwhile, Marathon, Florida—with 6.68 inches on the 15th—experienced its wettest November day on record (previously, 4.58 inches on November 14, 1954). Significant winds accompanied Florida’s rain, with gusts on November 16 clocked to 57 mph in West Palm Beach; 51 mph in Fort Lauderdale; and 48 mph in Miami. Early on the 16th, an unofficial gust to 86 mph was recorded at Carysfort Reef Light, about 8 miles east-southeast of North Key Largo, Florida. Florida’s rain eventually shifted northward, with Fort Pierce noting a daily-record sum (4.33 inches) for November 16. Fort Pierce collected another record-setting total, 2.37 inches, on November 17.

21/11/2023

If traveling on I-40 between Asheville and Tennessee one lane is closed due to a work zone through May 2024. There is also a wildfire near the Tennessee state line which is lowering visibility on I-40. The fire may continue for several days. Drivers should use I-26 and I-81 between Asheville and Tennessee to avoid the area affected by the work zone and the fire.

17/11/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two, located over the west-central
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

16/11/2023

Flash drought continued to rapidly develop and expand across the Southeast, with impacts on the emergence and establishment of fall-sown crops. In addition, Southeastern wildfires have been a problem in recent weeks, with dozens of large fires burning hundreds or thousands of acres of vegetation and fallen leaves. In Virginia, the Quaker Run Fire—partly burning in Shenandoah National Park—has scorched nearly 4,000 acres. In southwestern North Carolina, the Collett Ridge Fire has charred more than 5,300 acres. On November 12, Alabama led the nation with topsoil moisture rated 89% very short to short, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Other Southeastern States above one-half very short to short were North Carolina (75%), Georgia (69%), South Carolina (65%), and Virginia (63%). During the week exceptional drought (D4) expanded further into northern sections of Alabama and Georgia.

16/11/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. West-Central Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the west-central Caribbean Sea have become a
little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical
depression could form over the next day or two while the low moves
northeastward toward Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system this afternoon.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the Greater Antilles through this weekend. Interests
in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure between southern Florida and
the northwestern Bahamas is associated with a frontal boundary.
Development of this system into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely.
However, gusty winds and heavy rains are still possible across
portions of the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas during the
next day or so while the low moves quickly northeastward over the
southwestern Atlantic. For more information on this system,
including storm warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

13/11/2023

Flash drought conditions continue to ramp up across the Southeast. Despite temperatures being well below normal, the lack of precipitation continues to compound low streamflow levels and dry soils, leading to continued degradations. Conditions observed in Louisiana and Mississippi have continued eastward across Alabama, western Georgia and Florida’s panhandle and Big Bend. In the southeastern Florida peninsula, conditions that had seen some improvement from the past two to three months of precipitation are now seeing regressions back to summer month conditions. Rapid drying continues along the Atlantic coast from South Carolina to Virginia as flash drought expands across the Southeast. South Carolina saw 1-category degradation across the state, except in the Midlands where good topsoil moisture and medium streamflow levels are being observed. Dry soil moisture and precipitation deficits led to Moderate and Severe Drought expansion and the introduction of Extreme Drought in the Piedmont region. North Carolina saw the same dry patterns as South Carolina, which brought Moderate Drought expansion. Virginia, with similar conditions to South and North Carolina, saw the introduction of Extreme Drought to the Shenandoah Valley.

05/11/2023

The week was dry over the region with only some light rain over portions of northern Alabama. Western Tennessee did receive some significant rains associated with the storm system that impacted the Midwest, with some areas of western Tennessee recording 200% of normal rain for the week. Temperatures were warmer than normal over the entire region with most areas 4 to 8 degrees above normal for the week. Only south Florida was near normal during this time. Several recording stations from Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee recorded less than 0.50 inches of rain for the month of October with dryness that was comparable to records set in 2016 and 1963. Fire alerts were reinstated for all 67 counties in Alabama with no burn permits being issued for any county in northern portions of the state. The Mississippi River at Memphis remains near historic low-water thresholds, impacting barge traffic. Nashville ended up with just 0.73 inches of rain for October, with 0.43 taking place on October 30. Widespread drought expansion and degradation was introduced this week for the region. Extreme drought was expanded significantly over northern Mississippi and Alabama and into much of southern Tennessee. A new area of exceptional drought was brought into northern Mississippi. Extreme drought also expanded in southern Alabama into the panhandle of Florida and southwest Georgia.

26/10/2023

Precipitation fell across much of the region this week but rainfall amounts were well below normal, resulting in another week of 1-category degradations across parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. The drought expansion and intensification was based on short-term SPI/SPEI, NDMC’s short-term blend, streamflow and soil moisture data. Based on these short-term indicators, extreme drought (D3) was expanded in southern Alabama and introduced in parts of northern Alabama and Georgia where precipitation amounts for the last 7 days were less than 5% of normal and range between 2-4 inches below normal for the month. Moderate drought (D2) was expanded in parts of Alabama and Georgia, while D2 was introduced in parts of western North Carolina and southwest South Carolina this week. Moderate drought (D1) was expanded in Georgia, eastern Alabama, northern South Carolina and western North Carolina, while abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded in small parts of eastern Alabama and northern South Carolina.

23/10/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Tammy, located just north of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form before the system
moves inland over Nicaragua by early Tuesday. Regardless of
development, this system could produce heavy rains over portions of
Central America during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

22/10/2023

More than an inch of precipitation fell across much of the region this week, with heavy precipitation from central Alabama to central South Carolina, as well as northern Florida. Moderate drought was removed from the Big Bend region in Florida, while abnormal dryness (D0) was removed from parts of central and southern Georgia and eastern North Carolina. Conversely, dryness continues in parts of northern Virginia and northern Alabama, resulting in the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) to severe drought (D2) across these areas. Moderate drought (D1) was expanded in eastern and western parts of Virginia and western North Carolina. Precipitation was also sparse along parts of the Carolina coast, resulting in the expansion of D0. The drought expansion and intensification was based on short-term SPI/SPEI, NDMC’s short-term blend, streamflow and soil moisture data.

22/10/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Tammy, located near Antigua.

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
before it moves inland over Central America by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

19/10/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tammy, located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

15/10/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have become less organized since this morning. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form within the next couple of days while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward across the central and western
tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

07/10/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located near the west coast of
Africa continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

30/09/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over the
central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

28/09/2023

Tropical update

27/09/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located about 650 miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form
in the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

25/09/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing limited shower activity over
portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is moving
westward into unfavorable environmental conditions, and development
is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next few days as the system moves
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

23/09/2023

Recent WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North
Carolina, show convection wrapping around Ophelia's center, which is
also embedded beneath a convective canopy in satellite imagery.
Soon after the previous advisory, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters measured SFMR winds to hurricane force west of the center
within the deep convection, however those winds were not measured
again on their final pass through that area. Radar imagery and
microwave data from that period showed that a mid-level eye feature
had been forming well to the west of the surface center, but that
feature has since dissipated, suggesting that it--and the
hurricane-force winds--may have been a transient occurrence.
Regardless, the SFMR and flight-level winds were strong enough to
support an intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the estimated
intensity right now. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Ophelia in a couple of hours and should
provide a final estimate of the intensity before the storm reaches
land.

The current motion is north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 10 kt.
Ophelia is moving around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge and is therefore expected to turn northward and then
northeastward during the next couple of days. This track will take
Ophelia's center inland over North Carolina on Saturday, and then
across portions of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula
Saturday night and Sunday. An additional westward shift was made
to the first 24 hours of the official track forecast, mainly due to
Ophelia's center being tugged westward by the deep convection
earlier this afternoon.

Ophelia's center is only expected to be over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream for another 6 hours or so before moving inland, so the
window for strengthening is beginning to close. It should be
stressed, however, that there is very little difference if Ophelia
reaches land as a 60-kt tropical storm or a 65-kt hurricane.
Weakening is expected once the center moves inland Saturday
morning, and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the winds should drop below tropical storm force between 24
and 36 hours while Ophelia is over southeastern Virginia. The
system is forecast to become extratropical by 36 hours, although
the latest phase-space diagrams and simulated satellite imagery
suggest this transition could happen as soon as 24 hours. The
extratropical low is forecast to dissipate by 60 hours near the
Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes absorbed within its associated
frontal zone.

22/09/2023

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 76.0 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so,
followed by a slight turn toward the north. On the forecast track,
the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina
tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern
Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and satellite wind
data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60
mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is
possible before landfall along the coast of North Carolina.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of
60 mph (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and
a gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).

21/09/2023

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Corrrected time in the product

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to raise probabilities and update discussion

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Off the Southeastern United States Coast (AL99):
Updated...A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
east of the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure
system is expected to form within this area by early Friday, and
there are increasing chances that this system could acquire some
tropical or subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday
while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North
Carolina. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, this
low is likely to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain,
coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic United States coastline on Friday and into the
weekend. Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required for
this system as soon as later this morning. Additional information on
this system, including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High
Seas Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend or early next week while the system moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

21/09/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located near the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system is expected to merge with another disturbance located a
few hundred miles to its west in a few days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east
of the Florida peninsula within the next day or so. This system
could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday while it
moves generally northward. Regardless of development, this low is
likely to bring gusty winds to gale force, heavy rain, and high surf
to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States late
this week and into this weekend. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts and products from your
local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

19/09/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form east of the
Florida peninsula late this week. This system could acquire some
subtropical characteristics this weekend while it moves
generally northward. Regardless of subtropical development, this
low is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf
conditions to portions of the coastal Carolinas into the coastal
Mid-Atlantic states late this week into this weekend. Please see
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

18/09/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near the
southeastern coast of the United States late this week. This system
could acquire some subtropical characteristics this weekend if it
remains offshore while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

17/09/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Lee, located over the Bay of Fundy, on Tropical Storm
Margot, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Depression Fifteen, located over the central tropical
Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
midweek. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

15/09/2023

Lee appears to be in the very initial stages of extratropical
transition. The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric,
and scatterometer data from last evening showed a band of strong
winds developing along a boundary to the northwest of the center.
Lee's initial intensity remains 75 kt based on continuity from last
evening's reconnaissance and scatterometer data, but NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the storm in a
couple of hours to again sample the wind field.

Lee has been wobbling a bit since yesterday afternoon, but the
smoothed motion is northward (010 degrees) at a faster speed of 14
kt. Additional northward acceleration is expected during the next
24-36 hours as Lee moves along the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge, and approaches a trough currently over New England. The
track model guidance continues to be in very good agreement on
bringing Lee's center very near the western end of Nova Scotia by
Saturday afternoon, although the new NHC forecast is a little
faster than the previous prediction. In 2-3 days, Lee is forecast
to turn north-northeastward and northeastward across Atlantic
Canada as it moves between the aforementioned ridge and a mid-level
trough moving across Quebec.

Although southerly shear is forecast to increase markedly through
the day, baroclinic influences during Lee's extratropical transition
are likely to keep the intensity relatively steady for the next 24
hours or so. During that time, the NHC intensity forecast is near
the top end of the guidance suite, closest to the GFS and ECMWF
solutions, and there is some possibility that a band of strong winds
could develop near the front on the western side of the circulation
over the Gulf of Maine. Extratropical transition is forecast to be
complete by 36 hours (although it could be sooner), and Lee is
likely to be weakening--but still near or just below hurricane
force--as it is approaching Nova Scotia due to the continued shear
and much colder ocean temperatures. Lee is expected to continue
weakening while it moves across Atlantic Canada, and global model
fields indicate that it is likely to be absorbed by another
developing area of low pressure near Newfoundland and Labrador just
after 72 hours.

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