An area of interest is expected to arrive in Taiwan early this week, but is not expected to strengthen much. However, the rain weary island could receive moderate amounts of further rainfall as the system drifts over.
Elsewhere, more areas of interest are attempting to form across the Pacific ocean, with what may finally be the Eastern Pacific's first hurricane on the horizon, currently situated near El Salvador. With a 60% chance of development, the system is expected to put an end to our very slow start in the region, and another storm could form behind it. The good news is that none of the Eastern Pacific potential storms are expected to affect land.
In the Atlantic, a non-tropical low is forming off Cape Cod, and has a small chance of becoming a subtropical storm. Meanwhile, an area of interest in the main development region could strengthen as it reaches the Lesser and Greater Antilles later in the week.
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Tropical Storm Gaemi continues to churn as it heads well inland over China, and its enormous influence is still dumping rain in southern Taiwan, as well as in the Hong Kong and Guangdong regions. The center of Gaemi is located over Jiangxi, and is expected to tear apart over the next 48 hours as some of its clouds lift northwards. Storm force winds are possible across coastal regions until then.
Tropical Storm Bud has collapsed, and is now a remnant low in the Eastern Pacific.
Two areas of interest in the Atlantic could develop next week, with one of these near the coast of New England. Signs of development may present themselves as early as this weekend from a frontal system in the area.
In the Eastern Pacific, an area of interest may become a strong hurricane late next week, whilst an area of interest in the Central Pacific is being watched and may potentially break the almost five-year storm drought in that area.
In the Western Pacific, Invest 95W could develop near the Philippines and again head towards Taiwan, where storm conditions are possible as well as up to 200mm of further rainfall.
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Tropical Storm Bud forms in the Eastern Pacific, becoming the second storm to form in what has been a historic slow start in the region this year.
Updates on Bud and Gaemi continue on our live tracker.
Track the storms live!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LO-JCqOMPo
Prapiroon became the first typhoon of the current phase of activity in the Western Pacific, somewhat unexpectedly, and could strengthen a little more in the small amount of time it has before it makes landfall in northern Vietnam, near Ha Long. The storm has also turned much further west of earlier forecasts, and is now expected to continue to run westwards into northern Vietnam and into the rest of Indochina. Rainfall is expected to exceed 400mm.
Tropical Storm Gaemi is much larger, and is intensifying more slowly as it tries to consolidate its core. However, strengthening is expected to resume shortly and Gaemi should become a typhoon soon, and continue intensifying towards major typhoon status. Gaemi is expected to make landfall in Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday and could still be a Category 3 by that point. Rainfall is the primary concern from the storm, with totals possibly reaching 1500mm in the southern half of the mountains. Additionally, a further 500mm is expected in northwestern Luzon, which is already flooding.
Elsewhere, an area of interest in the Eastern Pacific could become a tropical depression or storm later in the week as it slides westwards, but is not expected to contain any strength by the time it reaches Hawaii next week.
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Tropical Storm Gaemi, named Carina by the Philippines, is moving slowly off the east coast of the Philippines, and is only intensifying slowly at the moment due to high wind shear. More rapid strengthening is expected as it pushes northwards in a couple of days and affect the coast of Taiwan and the southernmost Ryukyu islands of Japan. The Batanes islands may also see storm conditions. Gaemi could become a major typhoon before it curves back towards the northwest and pummels the coast of northern Taiwan. Rainfall on the island could exceed 900mm, as well as on the northwestern coast of Luzon as a byproduct of both storms.
Tropical Storm Prapiroon will make landfall overnight on the island of Hainan, China, and will then slink into the Gulf of Tonkin and may curve further east before stalling inland along the coast. Some strengthening is possible, before gradual weakening takes hold on Tuesday.
The Eastern Pacific still shows weak signals, with two areas of interest in the lower latitudes and one which is entering the Central Pacific soon. Development is ultimately still not expected
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Areas of interest continue to linger across the western Pacific ocean, although none of them have so far managed to reach tropical cyclone status in this active phase. However, chances are increasing for Invest 92W, located to the north of Palau. This system is expected to intensify into a typhoon if it forms, stall off the east coast of the Philippines, and then swirl towards Taiwan and China.
Invest 91W is also active, entering the South China Sea from the Philippines, and is expected to travel towards Hainan island as a weak disturbance, and possibly become a tropical depression.
Other areas of interest in the Eastern Pacific appear to have given up, and formation chances are now very low.
Despite Hurricane Beryl at the start of the month, 2024 continues its extremely slow progress, and is now 10 storms behind even the quietest seasons of the satellite era at this point of the year.
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An area of interest near the Philippines could become a brief tropical cyclone as it pushes through Mindanao and the Visayas region, and could develop further or contribute to another tropical cyclone in the South China Sea later in the week. In an uncertain pattern, high precipitation is likely regardless of development, with maximums of 400mm possible along the west facing shorelines of the South China Sea.
The tropical disturbance that was already over the South China Sea has moved inland over Vietnam, and was designated Tropical Depression 03W by the JTWC last night despite lacking a significant structure. The system is set to dissipate soon as rainfall continues over Laos and Thailand.
A third area is currently being watched in the open Pacific, and could develop into a typhoon late in the week as it turns northwards and could eventually threaten Japan, China, and Korea.
In the Eastern Pacific, chances have increased a little for a potential tropical cyclone over the open ocean, whilst a new system could form near the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week or at the weekend. The Eastern Pacific is now suffering from its slowest start since 1948.
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Areas of interest are popping up all across the Western Pacific this weekend, with two particular disturbances being closely monitored at this time.
An area of interest is currently pulling towards the coast of Vietnam, and while it is showing signs of having a low level circulation, the upper levels are not favourable so far. This system has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression, and is not likely to reach storm status as it passes near Vietnam and Hainan, China.
Another area of interest near the Philippines is expected to push through the Visayas region in the next few days, and could become a tropical storm as it does so. With a 60% chance of development, the best conditions for this system lie after it passes through the islands and into the South China Sea, where it could ramp up to typhoon status.
A third area is currently being watched in the open Pacific, and could develop into a typhoon late in the week as it turns northwards and could eventually threaten Japan, China, and Korea.
In the Eastern Pacific, chances have increased a little for a potential tropical cyclone over the open ocean, and could make a run for hurricane status late in the week. However, it will not affect land.
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With the Atlantic simmering down, attention turns to the Western Pacific where two areas of interest could develop into storms on either side of the Philippines.
A surface low is beginning to develop in the South China Sea, and could become a brief tropical storm as it heads towards the coast of Vietnam, but its progress could be disrupted by another system trying to form in the same space this weekend. Near the Philippines, a small storm is expected to form and pass through northern Mindanao and the Visayas this weekend or early next week.
Regardless of development, rainfall will be elevated in the Philippines and Vietnam, with total accumulations of over 400mm possible.
An area of interest in the open East Pacific also has a chance to develop, but it looks unlikely at this stage.
In the longer range, some models are still suggesting impressive typhoons will form in the Western Pacific and go on to affect Taiwan, Japan and China as substantial typhoons. More time is needed before we can forecast these storms with confidence next week and into the following week.
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Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Texas early Monday morning, and is now a remnant low with its center over northwestern Ohio. However, most of the heavy precipitation from its rain bands has been displaced well to the north, over northeastern Michigan and Ontario, Canada.
A flood and tornado threat is possible today on the eastern flank of the system, with an enhanced risk in place for New York state. Beryl will continue to slowly wind down as it passes over the eastern lakes and into the northeastern regions.
Elsewhere, two areas of interest in the Western Pacific could form together later this week or this weekend. A large low pressure system is expected to form in the South China Sea, and a much smaller low is likely to initiate off the eastern coast of the southern Philippines. Rainfall totals could reach up to 500mm in coastal regions of the Philippines and Vietnam facing the South China Sea. Later in the forecast period, more storms could form and become typhoons further north near Taiwan and Japan.
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