Cyclone Dikeledi has strengthened again this evening as it draws nearer to the coast of northern Mozambique, taking on a track only a little further south of Cyclone Chido last month. However, this storm is expected to turn further south as it grazes the coast of Mozambique, and is likely to intensify again when it draws clear in the Mozambique Channel.
Dikeledi may cause over 300mm of rainfall in parts of Mozambique, with flooding issues extending inland. Additional rainfall only partially related to the storm will also affect the area around Beira.
Dikeledi may go on to affect the southwestern part of Madagascar later in the week, and could again be at hurricane equivalent status as it does so, again with heavy rainfall.
Elsewhere, Cyclone Pita died out over the South Pacific and is no longer a threat to any land areas. Invest 97S has seen a similar fate in the Southern Indian Ocean, far from the coast of Western Australia. Invest 99S formed recently southeast of Christmas Island, and is not expected to form anytime soon.
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Cyclone Dikeledi made landfall in Madagascar last night with hurricane force winds, and has maintained most of its intensity this morning as it appears off the western coast. Storm force winds are expected to reach Mayotte later today, as well as the Comoros and eventually eastern Mozambique. Rainfall amounts are likely to exceed 250mm in several locations under the path of the storm causing flash flooding, as well as more gradual flooding concerns in northwestern Madagascar from prolonged rainfall.
Dikeledi may make a direct landfall in Mozambique, where land interaction will weaken the storm before it plunges southwards into the more open part of the Mozambique Channel. Reintensification will be limited by land interaction, although the storm may stay offshore leading to a stronger solution later in the week.
Elsewhere, Cyclone Pita briefly reached tropical storm status earlier today, but is looking very poor and is likely to be declared a remnant low shortly. Invest 97S has also failed to develop southeast of the Cocos Keeling Islands, and is likely to die off shortly.
No other areas of interest are expected to form in the next five days.
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Cyclone Dikeledi finally found another gear this morning, and has strengthened to hurricane equivalent status with winds near 80 miles per hour (125kph). The storm is making landfall in northern Madagascar, south of the city of Antsiranana. Dikeledi will push through and lose some strength as it does so, but heavy rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding with up to 300mm expected to fall tonight.
Dikeledi is also expected to affect Mayotte, which itself was impacted heavily by Cyclone Chido last month. Rainfall could reach 300mm whilst a direct hit cannot be ruled out with winds near hurricane force. However, it is more likely that the storm will pass to the south and that the island will avoid the strongest winds.
Great uncertainty still remains over the future track of the storm, even as far as the three day period. The GFS is still offering a solution taking the storm almost directly into Mozambique, near Nacala, which would favour weakening as the storm tangles with the coastline and a less strong storm after it moves southwards into the wider Mozambique Channel. However, if the storm misses it is likely to carry a lot more strength as it turns polewards west of Madagascar. In the long term, whilst a straightforward curve beyond southern Madagascar is most likely, some model ensembles are calling for the storm to be more of a challenge in its track and stalling in the area, which could implicate central Mozambique and Madagascar from an uncertain future track.
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Cyclone Dikeledi is gaining momentum as it continues on a steady westward heading, 500km east of Madagascar. The storm is likely to reach hurricane status by the time it arrives tomorrow, with strong winds and heavy flooding rains possible for Sava and Diana provinces. The model forecast has shifted westwards today, further implicating the island of Mayotte, which was heavily impacted by Cyclone Chido last month. The island now faces a 91% chance of storm conditions, along with rainfall of up to 250mm.
More prolonged rainfall is expected from the storm's eastern bands and influence after it passes Madagascar, affecting the northwestern part of the island and causing flooding issues as we enter next week.
Mozambique could still receive a direct landfall from the storm as it starts to curve further south early next week, with heavy rainfall likely. Depending on land interaction, Dikeledi may still be a potent storm as it starts to clear northern Mozambique and heads southwards over the expansive Mozambique Channel, and further rapid intensification cannot be ruled out in this zone. The forecast track at this point of the outlook is very uncertain.
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Cyclone Dikeledi formed yesterday, and is slowly gathering momentum as it heads towards Madagascar. Northern reaches of the island are expected to receive storm force winds, and the storm could still strengthen to reach hurricane force before it makes landfall tomorrow. The storm will weaken somewhat before entering the Mozambique Channel and pass dangerously close to cyclone-stricken Mayotte, before turning poleward and strengthen once more out in the open Mozambique Channel, west of Madagascar.
Rainfall could cause flash flooding in northern Madagascar as the fast moving storm passes, as well as along the eastern coast of Mozambique, with more prolonged rainfall for western and eastern parts of central Madagascar.
Elsewhere, areas of interest are looking good off Western Australia and near northern Tonga, with either of these systems possibly becoming tropical cyclones in the near future. Invest 97S is not expected to affect land, but is blowing up a fair amount of convection. The circulation however still seems too elongated.
The area of interest near Tonga may well become a tropical cyclone, and its very broad influence will cause significant rainfall for the islands and all points further east this weekend.
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Satellite imagery shows fire and heat signatures at first light Thursday from the catastrophic California fires
UPDATE: Cyclone Dikeledi has formed in the Southwest Indian Ocean, and is likely to impact Madagascar with winds approaching hurricane force
An area of interest (Invest 94S) continues to show signs of development this morning as it lingers over the central Indian Ocean, and has been routinely blowing up bouts of convection. However, a circulation is still yet to become apparant, although this could happen at any time. This potential storm is likely to gather pace and strength as it approaches Madagascar late this week and affect the northern third of the country this weekend into early next week. A hurricane strength storm cannot be ruled out, along with heavy rainfall totalling up to 300mm in some areas.
Two other areas of interest in the Indian Ocean could form in the next week - one brief spin-up south of Christmas Island - and another system which could become intense behind the current Madagascar threat.
In the South Pacific, a line of storms could spin a tropical cyclone up at any point in the next week, but chances of a distinct tropical cyclone appearing remain low. Heavy rainfall will persist over the area, extending from Fiji through Samoa, Tonga and other islands further east. Some areas may experience up to 500mm of rainfall from the event.
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