If you read my article this afternoon with my first call #snow map for our Pre #ValentinesDay storm, I went lower than probably most that you've seen. I have a few concerns on why I went lower for my first thoughts.
1. We are currently well above average in our temperatures ahead of the storm. We do not have any sustained cold air in place and our soil temps are well above freezing across the state. When the storm arrives, cold air will be diving in as the system exits off the coast, however I do not believe that will cool surface temperatures that much. We will have a lot of melting on surfaces, such as roadways. Accumulations will be mainly on cooler, grassy surfaces for the most part. The only areas that may overcome such a temperature gradient, would be extreme Northern New Jersey.
2. The video below is the last 4 runs of the European model. You can clearly see a drift North over the last few runs. My concern as we get better handle on the southern energy, we may see more of a slight drift Northward. The Euro has had a better handle on this system than the GFS, with the GFS beginning to come around to the heaviest precipitation adjusting North. How much more are we going to see drift is a genuine concern for me at the moment. We'll see over the next 24hrs.
Heavy Snow Band over Lumberton, NJ
Drone footage of the heavy #snow band that is currently over Southern #NJ. Lumberton Township doing crew doing a great job keeping roads clear as the heavier snow comes in.
Lumberton Township Mayor's Page
Thanks for being a top engager and making it on to my weekly engagement list! 🎉
Nicholas Tolomeo,
Diana Neumann,
Matthew Janssen,
Juan Gonzalez,
Tim Vitz
#SevereThunderstorm Warning live feed via WxDrone
No snow here once again on Christmas, but it did snow in Cocoa, Florida today! ❄️
-Marc F.
We are rocking this morning. Storms have developed and are moving NW to SE. Will exit by late AM for most ⛈
-Marc F.
Guidance really had nothing of the sort at this time, but we are currently watching a storm collapsing into a ball of rain/lightning moving E then eventually ESE this morning. Should weaken as it slides along but just a heads up ⛈
-Marc F.
Stormy night north as expected. Yankee game in the Bronx has been postponed ⛈
-Marc F.
Hottest day is Tuesday (90’s), but we get relief via the back door (backdoor cold front) into Wednesday 👌
-Marc F.
Warm Wednesday, sprinkle chance early but no big deal. 70’s-low 80’s cooler coast. Thursday 70’s/80’s, Storm chance later in the day. Enjoy!
-Marc F.
Radar this morning to ~now. Inland rain train. N&W heaviest as expected today (1-4”), Wed. AM was S&E 🌧 ⛈. We will taper off overnight.
-Marc F.
1-2”+ southern zones as expected. Rain gradually moving east for a better afternoon, but more rain arrives Thursday morning. Opening day in the Bronx is postponed until Friday #NJwx
-Marc F.
We do have squall like batches of precip heading east for later this afternoon. Brief burst of Rain, Hail, Graupel and or Snow is possible for some. Seems like every day now lol ❄️ 🌧 🧊
-Marc F.
From T-Storms to Blowing Snow in a few hours for some. Gotta love March⛈ —->❄️. Wind chills near 0° tonight, but 50’s/60’s ahead this week (next system ~Thursday looks wet if occurs).
-Marc F.
Again not much for SNJ, but snow has been mixing in with the rain at times when heavier (splats on the windshield too). When lighter rain dominates. No accumulation expected for most down this way (N&W better shot), but a raw day for sure for all.
-Marc F.
While we are expecting flakes/mix by daybreak Wednesday, it is currently Ashing here in Forked River from the controlled burn out of Warren Grove this evening. Trace accumulation lol🔥
-Marc F.
Rain is now moving into NNJ, N&W first. Watch for downpours/embedded boomers. Each could result in a damaging wind gust or two of 60+mph. Not all see storms 💨 🌧 ⛈
-Marc F.
Nothing like the smell of controlled burns 🔥 Do not be alarmed, it is that time of year 💨
-Marc F.
Squall closing in. Snow Squall Warnings for NE PA will extend into NNJ, CNJ & parts of SNJ shortly as the line continues to blow east.
-Marc F.
Thin Squall line is moving through this morning on cue. Brief Strong damaging wind and small hail possible. Temps will start to fall once the squall/front move through. Highs were reached this morning for many (50’s-60’s), temps in the 40’s this afternoon. Remaining breezy into Saturday, maybe a Graupel/Snow squall this time around 💨
-Marc F.
