Critical Political

02/10/2022

Congratulations to me 🎉 🎊

20/08/2022

11/06/2022

https://youtu.be/Id3TCbpWR2M

Explore the circular reasoning fallacy, which occurs when the end of an argument comes back to the start without having proven itself.--It’s 1990. A prospect...

06/03/2022

https://www.facebook.com/100050427672319/posts/517893506568234/

I’ve seen some variation of this rant a few times:

“I survived lead paint, wooden spoons, no seatbelts, no helmets, second hand smoke, playing unsupervised, drinking from the hose, and riding in the back of a truck.”

This “you kids that I raised are soft and it’s all your fault” nostalgia misses something in the quest to make asbestos great again; a lot of people didn’t survive this f**kery.

Today’s Moment of Science… Survivorship bias & phantom bullet holes.

We like to think that we’re rational thinkers, able to spot logical fallacies out in the wilderness. But what happens when the cause of your logical fallacy is information that’s long gone? This is a kind of selection bias known as survivorship bias, and it’s annoyingly common.

“Old houses were better constructed.” Or you only see the sturdiest of the old ones today because nobody made an effort to save the 14th century shacks.
“Music from back in the day is standing the test of time.” There’s caterwauling that deserves its fate in the bowels of music history from every era, I’m afraid.
“You can become a billionaire without going to college if you just work hard and read books, look at this tech bro who I think is irl Tony Stark.”
Truly, I enjoy an inspiring story about not having student loan debt as much as the next millennial going through an existential crisis. But every story of someone who got rich or famous tells the quieter story of far more people who wanted it just as badly, tried, and failed.

So, airplanes.

Abraham Wald was a Hungarian Jew who fled Europe for the US in the late 1930s because of that whole ‘Hitler was a murderous cockface’ thing. He had his PhD in mathematics and went to work for the Statistical Research Group (SRG) at Columbia University. The SRG has been described as a collection of the “most extraordinary group of statisticians ever organized.”

Planes kept coming back from the war with bullet holes in a certain pattern, if they came back at all. Damage clustered around the wing tips and tail. Weight needed to be kept low while giving the plane more protection, and the areas that had sustained a lot of fire seemed like the obvious places to armor up. Right?

But Wald suggested that planes were likely to be hit fairly evenly, not that the enemy fire was clustering around these spots tactically. He considered the data he didn’t have: the planes that never came home. Where were they being hit?

If he was right that planes took fire everywhere, then the planes should be armored heavily where the surviving planes hadn’t taken damage. The engine and the cockpit came back seemingly unscathed every time in otherwise bullet ridden planes. Those areas were subsequently fortified.
It’s a good lesson in survivorship bias. And saved untold lives.

Abraham Wald’s work contributed considerably to the burgeoning field of operational research. Because of his immigration status, he reportedly wasn’t able to get a security clearance or even look at the final reports he contributed to. He died in a plane crash in 1950 on the way to India for a lecture tour at just 48 years old.

This has been your Moment of Science, never sure I have all the data.

To get the MOS delivered to your inbox every weekday with rocket scientist or**es, NASA funded dolphin handjobs, and friggin... Australia... head to patreon.com/scibabe.

01/03/2022

https://youtu.be/9ZCZzh0mEGU

SUPPORT more videos like this at http://patreon.com/rebeccaSUBSCRIBE at http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=rkwatson+++Links + transcript ava...

03/02/2022

01/02/2022

https://youtu.be/Ghbkv0MKV-w

Explore the psychology of the cognitive bias known as the conjunction fallacy, where we assume specific conditions are more probable than general ones. --Mee...

01/02/2022

https://youtu.be/lmf6bWl-Hco

Explore the middle ground fallacy, which assumes that the truth is always a compromise between two extreme opposing positions.--It’s 1819. The US is preparin...

16/01/2022

14/01/2022

Correlation does not equal causation! 📣📣📣

The causal fallacy is a tactic that can trip up the best of us! Why? Our brains like to take shortcuts wherever possible (https://www.jneurosci.org/content/37/13/3588). So when we see…

A followed by B .

Our brains want to jump to: A caused B.

While causation and correlation can exist at the same time, the two events are often unrelated. Even if the rooster does not crow, the sun will still come up. 🐓🌞

Here is a COVID-19 example of the causal fallacy.

Misinformer: “My cousin got the vaccine and one month later had a heart attack. The shot caused him to have a heart attack!”

Reality: The COVID-19 vaccine is not a known cause of heart attacks. Every hour approximately 12 Canadian adults diagnosed with heart disease die (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/heart-disease-canada.html). With 76% of Canadians fully vaccinated (https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-coverage/), the chances of having heart disease and being vaccinated are high. The two might correlate, but vaccination is not the cause.

Thanks to Jordan Collver for collaborating with us on this post. Jordan is an illustrator and science communicator specializing in using the visual and narrative power of comics to explore themes of science, nature, and belief.

This is our last post in our series of misinformer tactics with Jordan. Let us know what you thought and if you would like to see more!

Check out his work on his website (https://jordancollver.myportfolio.com/work) and on Twitter (https://twitter.com/JordanCollver)



[ID: The illustration contains two separate image panes. On the left the rooster crows before dawn, a speech bubble with music notes comes from their mouth. A red arrow points to the panel on the right with the same rooster smiling in front of the rising sun. Text reads: MISINFORMER TACTIC: CAUSAL FALLACY]

13/01/2022

Today we’re going to focus on how to tell good evidence from bad evidence and maybe importantly, how to identify “Fine, but that doesn’t actually prove your ...

09/01/2022

Brandolini’s Law

Credit: Sketchplanations

06/01/2022

When you picture someone who falls for fake news, who do you see?
It turns out that people of ALL ages around the world are vulnerable to misinformation. While adults 65+ are more likely to share fake news stories on Facebook (1), conspiracy theories are being spread by teens on TikTok (2). A recent survey of over 20,000 Americans found that the younger you are, the more likely you are to believe in false claims about COVID-19 (3).
When it comes to the pandemic, misinformation can be a matter of life and death (4).
The good news is that you can protect yourself against misinformation.
Don’t just debunk, PREbunk (5)! Think about prebunking as vaccinating yourself against misinformation. By learning to identify different types of misinformation and how to address it, you will be more prepared next time you come across an inaccurate claim. Want to practice? Visit mediasmarts.ca/break-fake. They have quick quizzes that help you learn how to spot suspicious posts. Keep a lookout for these tactics, the next time you read a post online.
Questions about misinformer tactics? Let us know in the comments ↷

(1) https://tinyurl.com/SUFMisinfo1
(2) https://tinyurl.com/SUFMisinfo2
(3) https://tinyurl.com/SUFMisinfo3
(4) https://tinyurl.com/SUFMisinfo4
(5) https://tinyurl.com/SUFMisinfo5

06/01/2022

06/01/2022

We STAN science icon Galileo Galilei! 🔭🌌🌠🪐
But just because you have a different opinion than everyone else, doesn’t make you right.

We present the Galileo Gambit. Misinformers love to compare themselves to Galileo, who was famously persecuted because he said the earth orbits around the sun and not the other way around.

They would have you believe that, because their ideas go against the establishment, or risk their job, their credibility, or their safety, then they must be right.

The logic goes like this:
Galileo was persecuted and was correct.
I feel persecuted.
Conclusion: I am correct.

Let’s use the same logic on something else to help spot the flaw.

Steve is tall and wears blue socks.
I am tall.
Conclusion: I wear blue socks??
Clearly that’s not good reasoning. Tall people wear all sorts of different socks!

For every Galileo (who, by the way, had rigorous scientific EVIDENCE for his claims) there are a thousands of Steves* who got it wrong.

Remember this next time a supposed expert makes claims that go against the grain. Before you share, stop and think, “Is this accurate?”

*no disrespect to any Steves out there!

References:
1. tinyurl.com/SUFGalileo1
2. tinyurl.com/SUFGalileo2

06/01/2022

Why hello Username573927561! Great to see you again! You’re definitely a real person whose opinions I should take seriously...

Astroturfing is a practice where a message appears to have lots of grassroots support, BUT that support is actually being orchestrated by one organization or individual. The name comes from the brand of synthetic ground cover made to look like grass: AstroTurf. It looks real and natural, but it’s actually fake and artificial.

Astroturfers can use this tactic on social media, masking their identity and operating via many accounts and personas. This process can also be automated via bots. For example, twitter bots are a major source of climate misinformation (https://tinyurl.com/SUFAstroturf1).

This tactic can be used online to spread misinformation. For example, one analysis found that fear-mongering tweets about vaccines were spread not only by individuals but by coordinated networks involved in political astroturfing (https://tinyurl.com/SUFAstroturf2).

Remember, not everything you read online is trustworthy. Make sure you’re getting your news from reliable sources.

Thanks to Jordan Collver for collaborating with us on this post. Jordan is an illustrator and science communicator specializing in using the visual and narrative power of comics to explore themes of science, nature, and belief.

We’re working on a series of misinformer tactics with Jordan so stay tuned for more.

Check out his work on his website (https://jordancollver.myportfolio.com/work )and on Twitter (https://twitter.com/JordanCollver)

[ID: dozens of figures with glowing eyes stand in 3 rows. Three speech bubbles from 3 different figures contain a thumbs up, a heart and a thumbs down emoji respectively. Below the figures is a web of connections that lead to a hub with a question mark. Two dark hands are in the bottom corners.]

06/01/2022

“You’re either with us, or you’re against us.”

“You either love freedom or you wear a mask.”

People who spread misinformation will often present only two choices. In reality, there are many shades of grey. Forcing people to pick from only two when there are many alternatives is the logical fallacy of false dichotomies.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been filled with false dichotomies. Take the health vs. economy debate. Misinformers present these as two opposing stances, but this is not true. Economic experts and public health officials agree that strategies that reduce the spread of the virus improve the health of people and the health of the economy (https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-021-06357-4).

False dichotomies are often used to shut down, polarize and oversimplify debates. The next time you are presented with only two choices, ask yourself if you are getting the full picture.

Thanks to Jordan Collver for collaborating with us on this post. Jordan is an illustrator and science communicator specializing in using the visual and narrative power of comics to explore themes of science, nature, and belief.

We’re working on a series of misinformer tactics with Jordan so stay tuned for more.

Check out his work on his website (https://jordancollver.myportfolio.com/work) and on Twitter (https://twitter.com/JordanCollver)

[ID: Two people stand facing each other. The person on the right has their back to the viewer. In one hand they present two pills to the other person, one black one white. The other hand is behind their back holding many colourful pills. The text above the image reads: MISINFORMER TACTIC: FALSE//DICHOTOMY. The image references a scene from the film The Matrix with the character Morpheus.]

06/01/2022

LOOK OVER THERE 👀👉

A red herring is a misdirection used by mystery writers and misinformers alike. This logical fallacy uses parallel arguments that sound relevant, but are meant to lead you off the trail (https://www.chop.edu/news/news-views-name-logical-fallacy-covid-19-edition).

Here is an example of a conversation that includes a red herring argument:

Science Up First: “the COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective,”

Misinformer: “If you cared about safety you would recommend ivermectin”

Red herrings can distract from the point at hand (vaccine safety) to redirect the conversation (ivermectin).

Think you’re being misdirected? Ask yourself if the information provided is relevant.

Thanks to Jordan Collver for collaborating with us on this post. Jordan is an illustrator and science communicator specializing in using the visual and narrative power of comics to explore themes of science, nature, and belief.

We’re working on a series of misinformer tactics with Jordan so stay tuned for more.

Check out his work on his website (https://jordancollver.myportfolio.com/work) and on Twitter (https://twitter.com/JordanCollver)

[ID: The illustration features three characters: a hound, a fox and a red herring. The hound is sniffing the red herring and red waves travel from the fish to the nose of the hound. In the background the fox hides behind a log. The text reads MISINFORMER TACTIC: RED HERRING]