06/03/2024
After results, and each won at least 14 states, it looks like the race for the general election is set between them, despite the formalities of delegate accumulation pending. Biden, despite being the incumbent president with a solid economic backdrop and Trump facing legal challenges, is not the clear favorite according to polls. Trump has been leading in several key states, potentially securing him enough electoral votes for the presidency.
This unexpected scenario, especially considering the Democrats' recent successes, underscores Biden's struggle with low approval ratings. A significant portion of the electorate views him as too old for effective leadership, a sentiment shared even among Democrats.
However, there's a possibility for Biden to turn the tide by focusing on pivotal issues like abortion and democracy. Early polls may not be definitive predictors of the election outcome, as voter engagement is expected to increase closer to the election, potentially reshaping the political landscape.
Despite this, the current sentiment cannot be ignored. Voters' familiarity with both candidates from their long public service tenures has led to a clear dissatisfaction with Biden's presidency. This sentiment is a departure from the Democrats' recent electoral strategy, which has relied on nominating centrist candidates against right-wing Republicans—a strategy that narrowly succeeded in 2020.
Biden's lack of popularity appears to be most pronounced among less engaged and less educated demographics, including young, Black, and Hispanic voters. While these groups have traditionally supported Democrats, their disengagement poses a challenge for Biden, especially as voter turnout is expected to increase in November.
There's hope that less engaged voters might rally behind Biden as the election approaches, particularly if the campaign can redirect their focus to crucial issues. Moreover, despite Trump's lead in polls, his unfavorable ratings are similar to those before the last election, and many voters remain critical of his actions.
The concept of "double haters," voters disillusioned with both candidates, further complicates the electoral landscape. Their decision, whether to abstain, vote for a third-party candidate, or choose between Biden and Trump, remains uncertain but crucial.
In essence, while Biden faces significant challenges, the dynamic nature of electoral politics and voter sentiments leaves room for shifts in the coming months.