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The Cook Political Report In-depth, non-partisan analysis of US elections featuring Amy Walter, David Wasserman & Charlie Cook. The right analysis for getting it right since 1984.

The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. In 2004, Cook Political successfully transitioned from a print to online publication. Among the subscribers to The Cook Political Report are lobbyists, trade associations, corporation

s, labor unions, Members of Congress, political action committees and interest groups across the political spectrum. All have come to rely upon The Cook Political Report for objective information and analysis about who is running in what races, what the most important dynamics are in the races, who's ahead and what factors to look for as the campaigns progress. Each digital issue includes:

Amy Walter & Charlie Cook’s overview on the national political landscape;

A complete listing of every potential candidate for the U.S. House, Senate and Governor (updated weekly);

A rating for each race on a seven-point scale (Solid Democrat, Likely Democrat, Lean Democrat, Toss Up, Solid Republican, Likely Republican, Lean Republican) (updated weekly);

A narrative analysis of either every Senate race or every governor's race. A narrative analysis of House races, rotating between open seats, Democratic incumbents or Republican incumbents. The top-line numbers on every publicly available poll in House, Senate and gubernatorial races (updated weekly). The oft-sourced Cook PVI, which outlines the partisan trend line in districts across the US.

Today, we're making three changes to our Electoral College Ratings.Arizona: Lean R to Toss UpGeorgia: Lean R to Toss UpN...
08/08/2024

Today, we're making three changes to our Electoral College Ratings.

Arizona: Lean R to Toss Up
Georgia: Lean R to Toss Up
Nevada: Lean R to Toss Up

Amy Walter on the presidential campaign reset:

Three weeks ago, Donald Trump was leading President Joe Biden in the Cook Political Report national vote tracker by about 2.5%. Today, Kamala Harris leads Trump by less than one point, a shift of more than three points in Harris’ direction. Battleground state polls are showing similar results, wit...

The bottom line: Walz’s rural Midwestern background helps give the ticket some “Blue Wall” credibility and sensibility w...
06/08/2024

The bottom line: Walz’s rural Midwestern background helps give the ticket some “Blue Wall” credibility and sensibility without upsetting the progressive wing of the party.

In choosing Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential pick, Vice President Kamala Harris has fulfilled the wishes of the more progressive wing of the party. Many in the party disliked Gov. Josh Shapiro’s views on education policy, as well as the perception that he was too critical of the pro-Palestin...

Democratic enthusiasm has shifted seismically. It's a whole new ball game, writes Charlie Cook.
01/08/2024

Democratic enthusiasm has shifted seismically. It's a whole new ball game, writes Charlie Cook.

It’s hard not to miss the jubilation among most Democrats amid their changing fortunes. Although many Democrats did not fully appreciate just how dire their straits were prior to President Biden’s June 27 debate debacle, his odds of winning were not good before that. The debate served to jerk ma...

Progressive Rep. Cori Bush is in serious danger of losing her primary to St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell next we...
30/07/2024

Progressive Rep. Cori Bush is in serious danger of losing her primary to St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell next week, writes Erin Covey.

Plus, Matthew Klein looks at the GOP primary in MO-03.

The progressive wing of the Democratic primary suffered a high-profile defeat last month, when Rep. Jamaal Bowman lost to moderate Westchester County Executive George Latimer by double digits. They could face another blow on Aug. 6, as “Squad” member Rep. Cori Bush faces a well-funded Democratic...

From Charlie Cook: It is unlikely that this emotional roller coaster of an election is going to stabilize now. In fact, ...
28/07/2024

From Charlie Cook: It is unlikely that this emotional roller coaster of an election is going to stabilize now. In fact, you should hang on for dear life.

A week ago, the American people were resigned to a choice between President Biden and former President Trump. Polls showed a good many were unhappy about it. Today, with Vice President Kamala Harris poised to top a new Democratic ticket, there is a curiosity about the campaign ahead and even an exci...

A series of missteps has rallied an entire flock of business-minded Nashville insiders against Freedom Caucus Republican...
27/07/2024

A series of missteps has rallied an entire flock of business-minded Nashville insiders against Freedom Caucus Republican Rep. Andy Ogles in his Aug. 1 primary.

Most congressmen ruffle the occasional feather back home as they navigate Washington’s minefield of votes, interviews and committee hearings. But a series of missteps has rallied an entire flock of business-minded Nashville insiders against Freedom Caucus Republican Rep. Andy Ogles, forcing him to...

Both parties have a busy slate of July 30 primaries in Arizona, including a brutal Republican melee in the 8th District....
26/07/2024

Both parties have a busy slate of July 30 primaries in Arizona, including a brutal Republican melee in the 8th District.

Erin Covey reports:

Though Republicans lost a tranche of statewide elections in Arizona last cycle, they eked out victories in two purple House seats: Rep. David Schweikert held on to the 1st District in the rapidly growing northern Phoenix suburbs, and Juan Ciscomani flipped the open 6th District, which includes Tucso...

"The most important thing is that we now have a competitive race. Biden’s race was uphill before the June debate; by las...
25/07/2024

"The most important thing is that we now have a competitive race. Biden’s race was uphill before the June debate; by last week, it was edging closer to impossible."

Charlie Cook on what a Kamala Harris nomination means for 2024's wild ride:

A week ago, the American people were resigned to a choice between President Biden and former President Trump. Polls showed a good many were unhappy about it. Today, with Vice President Kamala Harris poised to top a new Democratic ticket, there is a curiosity about the campaign ahead and even an exci...

A series of missteps has made Republican Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee a primary target on Aug. 1.
25/07/2024

A series of missteps has made Republican Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee a primary target on Aug. 1.

Most congressmen ruffle the occasional feather back home as they navigate Washington’s minefield of votes, interviews and committee hearings. But a series of missteps has rallied an entire flock of business-minded Nashville insiders against Freedom Caucus Republican Rep. Andy Ogles, forcing him to...

Vice President Kamala Harris' impact on the House map is likely to be uneven, Erin Covey writes.While younger and more d...
23/07/2024

Vice President Kamala Harris' impact on the House map is likely to be uneven, Erin Covey writes.

While younger and more diverse districts could see a turnout boost, she may be more of a drag in the Rust Belt.

For the first time in months, Democrats feel a burst of optimism. President Biden’s decision to drop out of the race in the wake of his bleak poll numbers, and his subsequent endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign, energized a despondent party.

On Tuesday, we made six changes to our Electoral College Ratings.Arizona: Toss Up to Lean RGeorgia: Toss Up to Lean RMin...
11/07/2024

On Tuesday, we made six changes to our Electoral College Ratings.

Arizona: Toss Up to Lean R
Georgia: Toss Up to Lean R
Minnesota: Likely D to Lean D
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District: Likely D to Lean D
Nevada: Toss Up to Lean R
New Hampshire: Likely D to Lean D

Amy Walter on the state of the race post-debate:

As of July 9, the Democratic Party is living in a state of suspended animation. Despite growing calls from many in his party to leave the contest, President Joe Biden has made clear he has no intention of dropping out.

"If it is a binary choice, Democrats might be better off with [Harris] than with Biden. This is not something that I wou...
08/07/2024

"If it is a binary choice, Democrats might be better off with [Harris] than with Biden. This is not something that I would have said a week ago, but do now."

Charlie Cook's perspective on Democrats' dilemma:

We are now in a situation with far more questions than answers. New developments only create new questions.

"The problem for Biden is that he has more than just swing voters to worry about; he has a base enthusiasm problem. Last...
28/06/2024

"The problem for Biden is that he has more than just swing voters to worry about; he has a base enthusiasm problem. Last night’s performance did nothing to persuade those apathetic voters."

Read Amy Walter's thoughts on the debate:

Trailing in the polls, President Joe Biden needed Thursday night’s debate to help change the trajectory of the race. His campaign’s hope was that this debate would move the focus away from Biden’s shortcomings and onto former President Donald Trump’s many liabilities.“Don’t compare me to...

What is Charlie Cook's advice to the candidates heading into tonight's debate? Check it out:
27/06/2024

What is Charlie Cook's advice to the candidates heading into tonight's debate? Check it out:

You’d have to have spent the last six months cave diving or hiking the Appalachian Trail not to be aware of the presidential debate coming up on Thursday night. Some say it’s crazy to have a presidential general-election debate in late June, a full three months before debate season traditionally...

After eight years of mounting tensions between Colorado Republicans’ suburban old guard and stubborn MAGA die-hards, con...
13/06/2024

After eight years of mounting tensions between Colorado Republicans’ suburban old guard and stubborn MAGA die-hards, conflict within the state party has reached a boiling point.

Matthew Klein on the state's upcoming primary proxy wars:

After eight years of mounting tensions between Colorado Republicans’ suburban old guard and stubborn MAGA die-hards, conflict within the state party has reached a boiling point. The bitter ideological feud is now spilling out into the open, with four epic June 25 congressional primaries poised to ...

The April CNN poll showing 55% of Americans saying that Donald Trump’s presidency was a success stands in stark contrast...
13/06/2024

The April CNN poll showing 55% of Americans saying that Donald Trump’s presidency was a success stands in stark contrast with the public assessment of his performance while he was still in office.

Read Charlie Cook's latest:

The April CNN poll showing 55 percent of Americans saying that Donald Trump’s presidency was a success, with 44 percent remembering it to be a failure, stands in stark contrast with the public assessment of his performance while he was still in office.

Despite facing millions in outside spending from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his allies, Rep. Nancy Mace looks cle...
09/06/2024

Despite facing millions in outside spending from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his allies, Rep. Nancy Mace looks clearly favored to survive this cycle’s primary contest.

South Carolina has had its fair share of bitter Republican primaries over the years, and this cycle looks to be no different.

"Trump’s conviction could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back," writes Charlie Cook. "But at least since Trump rod...
08/06/2024

"Trump’s conviction could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back," writes Charlie Cook. "But at least since Trump rode down the golden escalator, there is no precedent for that."

Before the beginning of our current “Trump era” of American politics, there was no precedent for our frequent use of the word “unprecedented.” In fact, the term comes up so much in news and commentary that it has pretty much become a cliché. Now, there are few things related to Trump that c...

Even with optimism swirling in spades among Nevada Republicans, there’s a quiet consensus that they can’t beat the House...
06/06/2024

Even with optimism swirling in spades among Nevada Republicans, there’s a quiet consensus that they can’t beat the House.

Matthew Klein on Nevada's congressional primaries:

With five months until Election Day, Nevada Republicans have an unusual bit of pep in their step. Emboldened by President Joe Biden’s consistent statewide polling deficit and Army veteran Sam Brown’s campaign against freshman Democratic Sen.

South Carolina has had its fair share of bitter Republican primaries over the years, and this cycle looks to be no diffe...
06/06/2024

South Carolina has had its fair share of bitter Republican primaries over the years, and this cycle looks to be no different.

Read Erin Covey's primary preview of the Palmetto State:

South Carolina has had its fair share of bitter Republican primaries over the years, and this cycle looks to be no different.

With regard to Trump's felony conviction, "those who predict that it will irreparably dent his electability and those wh...
06/06/2024

With regard to Trump's felony conviction, "those who predict that it will irreparably dent his electability and those who say it will have no effect are probably both engaging in wishful thinking."

Charlie Cook's take:

Before the beginning of our current “Trump era” of American politics, there was no precedent for our frequent use of the word “unprecedented.” In fact, the term comes up so much in news and commentary that it has pretty much become a cliché. Now, there are few things related to Trump that c...

Democrats are cautiously optimistic about regaining ground in Iowa's House districts this year.
03/06/2024

Democrats are cautiously optimistic about regaining ground in Iowa's House districts this year.

After Republican Air Force veteran Zach Nunn unseated Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne last cycle, Democrats are entirely locked out of the Iowa congressional delegation. The party has a strong recruit in Lanon Baccam, an Army veteran and former USDA administrator who is personally close to former governo...

The "participation gap" is growing, David Wasserman writes, with Biden leading among "high-engagement" voters and Trump ...
02/06/2024

The "participation gap" is growing, David Wasserman writes, with Biden leading among "high-engagement" voters and Trump carrying less-engaged voters.

Increasingly, 2024 is a tale of two electorates: not just left versus right or white versus nonwhite, but high-engagement versus low-engagement. And, it’s a major reversal from the past.

Our recent Swing State Project poll with BSG and GS Strategy Group shows most Democratic Senate candidates outrunning Bi...
02/06/2024

Our recent Swing State Project poll with BSG and GS Strategy Group shows most Democratic Senate candidates outrunning Biden.

Amy Walter explains why:

A silver lining for Democrats in the recent Cook Political Report/GS Strategies/BSG Swing State Project polling is the strength of Senate Democrats in key swing states. Senate candidates in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are not only outperforming President Joe Biden, but are....

As Biden struggles with Hispanic voters, Republicans are increasingly excited about putting New Mexico’s Senate seat in ...
01/06/2024

As Biden struggles with Hispanic voters, Republicans are increasingly excited about putting New Mexico’s Senate seat in play.

Democrats say: Not so fast.

It’s been 22 years since New Mexico sent Republican Pete Domenici back to Congress’ upper chamber in a 30-point rout. Now, his daughter Nella is waging a Senate campaign of her own — and she’s hoping the family surname will help turn this sleepy sideshow into a top-tier tussle.

Democrats hope to make up some ground in Iowa's House races this cycle after getting shut out in 2022.
01/06/2024

Democrats hope to make up some ground in Iowa's House races this cycle after getting shut out in 2022.

After Republican Air Force veteran Zach Nunn unseated Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne last cycle, Democrats are entirely locked out of the Iowa congressional delegation. The party has a strong recruit in Lanon Baccam, an Army veteran and former USDA administrator who is personally close to former governo...

Nella Domenici, the wealthy daughter of six-term Republican Sen. Pete Domenici, is all-in for New Mexico Senate.The GOP ...
30/05/2024

Nella Domenici, the wealthy daughter of six-term Republican Sen. Pete Domenici, is all-in for New Mexico Senate.

The GOP is increasingly excited about putting the race in play. But Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich doesn't intend to be taken by surprise.

It’s been 22 years since New Mexico sent Republican Pete Domenici back to Congress’ upper chamber in a 30-point rout. Now, his daughter Nella is waging a Senate campaign of her own — and she’s hoping the family surname will help turn this sleepy sideshow into a top-tier tussle.

There’s a growing participation gap in presidential preferences, David Wasserman writes.In the two-way ballot test, Bide...
30/05/2024

There’s a growing participation gap in presidential preferences, David Wasserman writes.

In the two-way ballot test, Biden leads 49%-45% among “high engagement” voters. Trump leads 51%-41% among “low-mid engagement” voters and 43%-33% among new registrants.

Increasingly, 2024 is a tale of two electorates: not just left versus right or white versus nonwhite, but high-engagement versus low-engagement. And, it’s a major reversal from the past.

Why are Senate Democrats running ahead of Biden?As Amy Walter explains, “Democratic Senate candidates aren’t paying as b...
30/05/2024

Why are Senate Democrats running ahead of Biden?

As Amy Walter explains, “Democratic Senate candidates aren’t paying as big a price for voters’ economic frustrations, while Republicans have not created separation between themselves and Trump’s most problematic positions.”

A silver lining for Democrats in the recent Cook Political Report/GS Strategies/BSG Swing State Project polling is the strength of Senate Democrats in key swing states. Senate candidates in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are not only outperforming President Joe Biden, but are....

For Senate Democrats, there is no room for error — and if President Joe Biden loses reelection, they will have already l...
28/05/2024

For Senate Democrats, there is no room for error — and if President Joe Biden loses reelection, they will have already lost the majority whether they run the table in all the competitive seats or not.

With just under six months until Election Day, the Senate remains beyond precarious for Democrats. There is no room for error — and if President Joe Biden loses reelection, they will have already lost the majority whether they run the table in all the competitive seats or not.

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Amy Walter discusses the themes and vibes from night three of the DNC. Many of the speeches last night focused on the values of the Democratic Party. As we approach Election Day, Amy argues that Harris and Walz will need to focus less on emotions and values, and instead concentrate on issues that will sway swing voters.

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