30/06/2024
BERYL NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH 130 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS. NOW FORECAST TO REACH 140 MPH WINDS
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A page ran by former storm chaser John Tinney. I forecast tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin
30/06/2024
To give you a better perspective on just how fast Beryl has strengthened. Check out the latest 24 hour microwave imagery. From a tropical storm yesterday morning to a Category 3 hurricane this morning.
30/06/2024
BERYL NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE: Hurricane Beryl is now a Category 3 (Major) hurricane with winds up to 115 mph. It is the first June major hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on record. Very rare to see for this time of the year. Beryl has been very rapidly gaining strength and is expected to be a Category 4 hurricane by 2 AM ET Monday. Prayers for the folks in the Winward Islands who will be affected by this very dangerous storm.
30/06/2024
HURRICANE BERYL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING: Good Sunday morning everyone. We awake to find Hurricane Beryl getting stronger in a hurry. Beryl is now a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and getting stronger with each update. Beryl is now forecast to be a dangerous Category 4 storm as it nears the Winward Islands early Monday. A very bad situation for those folks no doubt.
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Winward Islands as heavy rain, dangerous flooding and storm surge along with those hurricane force winds will be a serious threat.
As we get beyond Tuesday some weakening is expected as the overall environment is expected to become less favorable for Beryl to maintain strength BUT in that day 4 range and beyond there is quite a bit of uncertainty so nothing is set in stone yet. Folks in the Western Caribbean should be closely monitoring Beryl. As always be sure to check back for updates. It's Sunday so I do have church so I might not get out every advisory today but I'll update things as often as I can.
29/06/2024
HURRICANE BERYL UPDATE: The 5 PM ET updated advisory and track show we have a strengthening Beryl. Now a category 1 hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds. At just 11 AM ET Beryl was a 65 mph tropical storm. Beryl is now expected to reach category 3 strength with 120 mph winds. Beryl poses a serious threat to the Winward Islands. Beryl is expected to track generally westward through the next 7 days. Once we get beyond Monday a slow weakening trend is expected with Beryl as conditions become less favorable for Beryl to maintain strength.
Hurricane Warnings are now up for Barbados.
Hurricane Watches are up for St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine islands.
Tropical Storm Watches are up for Martinique, Dominica, and Tobago.
ELSEWHERE: We have two areas that could develop. The first one is right on the heels of Beryl and the hurricane center gives it a high chance to become a tropical depression or storm by the middle of next week. Area #2 has a 50/50 shot a becoming a tropical cyclone but time probably not on its side before it ultimately moves inland early next week.
Lots to watch in the Atlantic Basin. Be sure to check back for updates.
29/06/2024
BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE!!! NEW UPDATED TRACK AND ADVISORY GRAPHICS COMING SOON!!!
29/06/2024
BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE: We had Tropical Storm Beryl named overnight and Beryl is getting stronger. Something new this year with our graphics we will be showing you the previous and current advisories in a what has changed graphic. There you will also see the forecast intensity timeline as well.
Beryl is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and poses a serious threat to the Winward Islands. Rapid intensification is expected and Beryl may not even wait until tonight to become a hurricane. While Beryl is expected to get stronger in the short term, Beryl will ultimatley run into a more sheared environment and a slow weakening trend is expected beyond Tuesday. Although this far out nothing is set in stone.
Hurricane Watches are up for the island of St. Lucia, St. Vincent, the Grenadine Islands, and Tobago.
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Martinique, and Tobago.
Two other systems have a medium chance for development and will need to be monitored going forward so lots going on in the Atlantic Basin right now. Be sure to check back for updates.
28/06/2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2: Here's the latest track on Tropical Depression 2. TD 2 is alive and well and expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday as it nears the Winward Islands. A good chunk of forecast guidance suggests this could become a major hurricane. The National Hurricane Center peaks this at a Category 2 with 105 mph winds as of the 5 PM advisory. We've got quite a while to watch this thing. Most guidance keeps the westward track with no impacts to the US BUT this far out nothing is set in stone. Be sure to check back for updates.
28/06/2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC. EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. GRAPHICS COMING SHORTLY!!!
27/06/2024
TROPICS UPDATE: We've got a couple of areas worth watching for development. First up is Invest 95L located several hundred miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands. Conditions are conducive for development and a tropical depression or storm is expected by the weekend. Folks with interests in and near the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
Next up is Invest 94L and it has a lower chance to develop BUT some development is possible over the next few days as it moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Soooo lots to watch over the next several days. Welcome to hurricane season.
20/06/2024
ATERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE: Sorry for the lack of posts recently. Had a lot going on. We did get our first named storm of the season in Tropical Storm Alberto. Alberto has moved inland over Central America and will dissipate soon. All subsequent tropical alerts have been allowed to expire.
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT: We have two areas we are watching this afternoon. Area #1 is where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form near the Bay of Campeche and slowly move west northwest and as it does gradual development seems a real possibility.
Area #2 is an area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of the Bahamas. Some development of this system is possible but conditions are only marginally conducive for development due to nearby dry air. A hurricane hunters recon mission is ongoing to try and get better data.
18/06/2024
MORNING TROPICAL UPDATE: No Tropical Storm designation yet as of this morning. The system has pretty much come to a creeping halt though. The convection looks lopsided and not really wrapping around any defined center. We still expect some organization to occur though before landfall on Thursday.
Heavy rain and gusty winds along with some storm surge are the biggest concerns with this system. Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from Port O'Connor Texas and points south and west. We'll continue to monitor PTC One and see how things progress throughout the day. Hurricane Hunters are flying missions on this system so that will give us better data as well.
18/06/2024
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE: The National Hurricane Center has designated our area of disturbed weather near Central America as PTC One. PTC One will continue to slowly move to the northwest and should gradually get stronger as it does. Thankfully the time over open water will be limited and it should move inland during the day on Thursday bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for parts of the Texas Gulf Coast from Houston and points south and west.
Next update on PTC One will be posted tomorrow morning. Have a great Monday night everyone.
17/06/2024
AFTERNOON TROPICS UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center has designated our area of disturbed weather near the Bay of Campeche as Invest 91L. This system has a high chance (70%) of becoming a tropical depression or storm by midweek. It won't have a ton of time over water to organize before moving inland so a low end tropical storm is about as much as one could expect. It will likely bring some heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Texas and Louisiana gulf coast.
AREA #2: A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas in a day or two. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or Friday. It's worth keeping an eye on that one as well but for now chances for development remain low.
16/06/2024
WATCHING THETROPICS: We have two areas we are watching this evening. One area off the coast of Mexico will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of Central American and the Southern Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center gives this area a 70% chance to become a named tropical system in the coming days.
AREA #2 is off the Southeast Coast and it will be monitored for potential development but the odds aren't in it's favor currently as it only has about a 30% chance to develop over the next 7 days. It is that time of year after all when we have to watch things closely. We'll have more updates as needed.
23/05/2024
YELLOW BLOB ALERT: With Hurricane Season officially kicking off June 1rst it's no shock we are already watching a disturbed area of weather Northeast of the Caribbean Islands. Not expecting much in the way of development but certainly a sign of the times.
24/04/2024
Our first yellow blob of the year. Not likely to develop but a sign of the times indeed.
04/04/2024
VERY ACTIVE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON POSSIBLE: Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast from Colorado State University calls for very active season: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes & 5 major hurricanes. Extremely warm tropical Atlantic and likely LaNina are the primary reasons. Understand the number of forecast storms doesn't correlate to the number of US landfalls.
08/09/2023
HURRICANE LEE NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE: As of the 11 PM EDT Advisory. Hurricane Lee is a powerful Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph sustained winds. Folks it was a Category 1 just this morning. Latest track along with timing and projected wind speeds along that track in the graphics below.
08/09/2023
HURRICANE LEE EXPLODES: Hurricane Lee was a Category 1 Hurricane this morning with a cloudy open eye. Based on the latest data from the Hurricane Hunters. Lee may already be a Category 5 storm. This is absolutely remarkable strengthening over such a short period of time. Thankfully based on ensemble data from the Euro and GFS Lee likely makes a turn North and doesn’t make landfall in the continental United States. Still worth watching closely.
30/08/2023
Here's a look at the microwave imagery as Idalia made landfall this morning. You can see the eye wall replacement cycle that took place near landfall that weakened Idalia from a Category 4 storm down to a strong Category 3 storm. Idalia is moving quite fast so conditions will begin to improve rather quickly.
30/08/2023
IDALIA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH 130 MPH SUATAINED WINDS: As of the 5 AM EDT update Hurricane Idalia has strengthened into a dangerous Category 4 storm. Looks to be heading for a landfall very close to Perry Florida in between Tallahassee and Cedar Key. Please keep these folks in your thoughts and prayers as landfall is likely only 2 or 3 hours away.
30/08/2023
IDALIA NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS: Hurricane Idalia continues to strengthen and is now expected to be a Category 4 storm at landfall later this morning. Please take this storm very seriously.
30/08/2023
IDALIA CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER AS OF 5 PM EDT: Idalia now has sustained winds of 105 mph. Idalia is located 155 miles WSW of Tampa Fl. Idalia is likely to become a major hurricane soon and continue to get stronger all the way up until landfall tomorrow morning. If you or someone you know is in the path of this storm please take it very seriously.
Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10-15 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown Florida. Life threatening storm urge is also possible elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast. There is the potential for destructive winds where the core of the storm moves onshore. Heavy rain will also lead to flash flooding for a good portion of Central Florida up through parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Please heed all advice from local officials.
29/08/2023
5 PM EDT UPDATE ON IDALIA: Not much change other than Idalia is now a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph sustained winds. Still expected to be a Category 3 at landfall tomorrow and strengthen right up until landfall tomorrow morning. Life threatening storm surge, hurricane force winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes are all serious threats with Idalia. Please take all advice from local officials very seriously.
29/08/2023
2 PM EDT IDALIA UPDATE: Idalia continues to gradually strengthen with sustained winds now up to 90 mph. Idalia now expected to be a high end Category 3 storm at landfall with 125 mph sustained winds. Just 5 mph shy of Category 4 strength.
Idalia was located 240 miles SW of Tampa Bay. Life threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected tonight into Wednesday along the Big Bend portion of the Florida Gulf Coast.
Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10-15 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown Florida. Life threatening storm urge is also possible elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast. There is the potential for destructive winds where the core of the storm moves onshore. Heavy rain will also lead to flash flooding for a good portion of Central Florida up through parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Please heed all advice from local officials.
29/08/2023
IDALIA UPDATE TUESDAY 8/29/23 9:55 AM EDT: Idalia is now a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph sustained winds. Idalia is still expected to become a major hurricane and be a Category 3 storm at landfall tomorrow along the Florida Big Bend region. As a reminder as you look at the cone remember that is where the center could potentially travel. Impacts will be felt well outside of the cone. Especially on the East side of the storm.
THREATS: Storm surge, heavy rain, and intense winds are the primary concern although a few tornadoes are certainly possible. The most intense winds will be near the center in and around the point of landfall. Folks East of Tallahassee all the way to Tampa need to really pay close attention. Any slight jogs in the track will have implications on who sees the worst of this storm. Idalia is a rather small hurricane so that helps in terms of the overall scope of the impacts but this will still be a very rough storm for those that are impacted. Please heed all warnings from local officials. If you are told to leave please do so. Landfall is expected tomorrow. Get preparations completed today as soon as possible.
28/08/2023
VERY WARM WATER AHEAD OF IDALIA: As of the 5 PM EDT advisory, Idalia remains a strong tropical storm with 70 mph. It is worth noting the very warm waters ahead for Idalia. Rapid intensification is possible beginning tomorrow. Watching this storm very closely for the folks in Florida.
28/08/2023
IDALIA UPDATE: In this afternoons updated track not much change. Idalia is still a strong tropical storm with 65 mph sustained winds. Idalia is expected to become a hurricane later today and be a major hurricane at landfall on Wednesday. A period of rapid intensification is possible especially given the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. There will likely be some interaction with shear that should keep Idalia from getting crazy strong but that is certainly not set in stone. Heavy rain, storm surge, wind, and isolated tornadoes are all threats with Idalia. Please be sure if you live along the Florida Big Bend up through the Southeast US Coast that you are paying close attention to the forecast as it pertains to Idalia. Next update from me later this evening.
28/08/2023
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA: Here's the latest on Storm Idalia. Idalia remains a tropical storm this morning with 65 mph sustained winds. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Idalia is now forecast to become a Category 3 hurricane as it nears landfall near the Florida Big Bend area early Wednesday. If you live or know someone who lives in these areas you need to get your hurricane preparations completed soon. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are up for parts of Florida. We will continue to monitor things closely.
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To give you a better perspective on just how fast Beryl has strengthened. Check out the latest 24 hour microwave imagery. From a tropical storm yesterday morning to a Category 3 hurricane this morning.
Here's a look at the microwave imagery as Idalia made landfall this morning. You can see the eye wall replacement cycle that took place near landfall that weakened Idalia from a Category 4 storm down to a strong Category 3 storm. Idalia is moving quite fast so conditions will begin to improve rather quickly.
A look at Hurricane Ian with 85 mph sustained winds getting ready to make landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC.
A look at the last 48 hrs of Hurricane Ian via microwave imagery. Very impressive.
HURRICANE IAN NOW MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CAYO COSTA, FL AS A HIGH END CAT 4 WITH 150 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS. It is worth noting Hurricane Hunters are currently inside the storm and have found stronger winds. NHC will make the final decision on the final rating. In the end the difference in 150 and 157 is irrelevant. Impacts are the same.
HURRICANE IAN: Here's a look at Hurricane Ian as of 12:30 PM EDT. Ian nearing landfall near Cape Coral with 155 mph sustained winds. Catastrophic wind damage, storm surge, and flooding is very likely.
IAN CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5: Here's a look at Hurricane Ian with 155 mph sustained winds. Prayers for everyone in the path.
HURRICANE IAN: Here's a look at now Category 4 Hurricane Ian with 140 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 165 mph. This is going to be a storm to remember for the Florida Peninsula.
Hurricane Ian is still a Category 3 storm this morning with 120 mph sustained winds. Landfall likely later today near Port Charlotte Florida.
A look at the past 48hrs of Hurricane Ian via microwave imagery. A definite thing of beauty for such a dangerous storm.
Ian has emerged North of Cuba with 115 mph sustained winds. More strengthening is expected. Landfall likely near or just South of Tampa. Life threatening storm surge, heavy rain, flash flooding, hurricane and tropical storm force winds and isolated tornadoes are all possible. Please take this storm very seriously.
Hurricane Ian making landfall in Cuba with 115 mph sustained winds.
Here's a look at Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. It has yet to acquire a closed center of circulation. Wind shear is really keeping this storm very sloppy. We may not see Tropical Storm Alex until after it crosses South Florida. Regardless impacts still the same. Very heavy rain and flooding likely across South Florida especially areas South of I-4. We continue to monitor things closely.
A look at the past 48 hours of Ida via microwave imagery. You can clearly see the well forecasted period of rapid intensification take place. There are times you hope and pray you are wrong sadly today was not one of those days. Our worst fears appear to be coming true. Our thoughts and prayers are with those being affected by this horrible hurricane.
Sun rising on a monster churning in the Gulf of Mexico. Ida now about 50 miles South of the mouth of the Mississippi River. 150 mph sustained wind likely higher. New advisory at 9 AM EDT.
IDA IS A MONSTER: As of the 7 AM EDT update from the national Hurricane Center. Ida now has sustained winds of 150 mph with a central pressure of 935 mb. Ida is very close to becoming a Category 5 storm. Just a horrible situation unfolding for Southeast Louisiana.
IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN: As of the 5 AM EDT Advisory this morning. Hurricane Ida now has sustained winds of 140 mph. A catastrophic situation setting up for Southeast Louisiana.
BREAKING WEATHER: Ida now a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph sustained winds. Less than an hour after being upgraded to a Category 3. Ida continues to strengthen and will likely continue to do so up until landfall.
Hurricane Ida is now a Category 3 hurricane with at least 115 mph sustained winds and pressure down to 955mb and dropping as Ida continues to rapidly intensify. Ida could be stronger than advertised currently as recon has yet to sample the Northeastern eyewall.
Here's a look at Hurricane Ida tonight as it continues to strengthen. I've got the lightning turned on and you can see those robust thunderstorms in those outer bands.
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