Today's Edition by Robert Hubbell (2024)

30/10/2023

As the humanitarian situation on the ground in Gaza continues to deteriorate, President Biden has engaged in a multi-pronged effort to protect and assist Palestinians in Gaza—efforts that are not being credited by some Democrats. And as President Biden consistently distinguishes between suffering Palestinians and Hamas terrorists, Trump has been vowing to re-impose his “Muslim travel ban,” a ban based on Islamophobic views that deliberately conflate Muslims and terrorists.

Over the weekend, Israel confirmed that it was expanding its Gaza operations to destroy Hamas. Internet and phone service in Gaza disappeared for the better part of two days but is slowly being restored. The US has urged Israel to help restore service to the extent it has control over the networks.

As reported in the NYTimes, President Biden is in daily contact with Prime Minister Netanyahu and continues to urge him to protect civilians. Per the Times,

Biden “reiterated that Israel has every right and responsibility to defend its citizens from humanitarian law that prioritizes the protection of civilians.” The two discussed efforts to locate hostages being held by Hamas, including several Americans thought to be missing or held hostage, and Biden asked Netanyahu to “immediately and significantly” increase the amount of humanitarian aid flowing into Gaza.

For its part, Israel apparently responded to President Biden’s request by committing to increase the amount of aid flowing across the Rafah Border Crossing on the Egyptian border. Again, per the Times,

"Israel has committed to allowing 100 trucks of aid per day into Gaza through its border crossing with Egypt, a senior U.S. government official said. The aid would include a limited amount of fuel for the U.N. to distribute to key humanitarian infrastructure in Gaza, such as hospitals."

As President Biden remains steadfast in his support for Israel, Trump criticized Biden for authorizing $100 million in aid to Palestinians in Gaza. (Trump claimed that the aid would make its way into the hands of Hamas.) I confess that I missed Biden’s pledge of $100 million in aid to Palestinians in Gaza. See Whitehouse.gov, U.S. Announcement of Humanitarian Assistance to the Palestinian People.

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October 30, 2023

27/10/2023

"Speaker 'MAGA Mike' Johnson, the day after."
October 27, 2023.

I received many emails from readers who were anxious about the election of Mike Johnson and unpersuaded by my attempt to calm fears in yesterday’s newsletter. So, I will make another attempt. This time, however, I refer you to a truly excellent article by Dennis Aftergut in Verdict, "Five Ways Mike Johnson Will Help Make Hakeem Jeffries Speaker in 2025." If you are worried about Mike Johnson (and even if you are not), I urge you to read this article to help put Johnson’s election into perspective.

Aftergut begins by quoting Dan Pfeiffer, who served as President Obama’s communications director:

"[I]f Democrats could design in a lab the perfect candidate to run against, that person would look a lot like Mike Johnson."

I won’t repeat all Aftergut’s analysis, but let’s look at two issues: Reproductive liberty and gun safety.

Every election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade has demonstrated that the GOP attempt to eliminate reproductive liberty is the greatest area of weakness for Republicans at the ballot box. So, what did they do? They just elected as Speaker the most radical opponent in their ranks to women’s autonomy over their bodies, healthcare, and family planning. In the aftermath of Dobbs, Democrats have consistently won special elections in battleground states. See The Hill, "Democrats keep winning special elections in battleground states." That trend portends well for Democrats in 2024. As Dan Pfeiffer said, if you created a candidate in a lab who was most likely to cause Republican losses in 2024, that person is Mike Johnson.

Second, Johnson was elected on the day of the mass killings in Lewiston, Maine. He had nothing to say other than “Prayer is appropriate in a time like this, that the evil can end and this senseless violence can stop.” No call for legislation. No call for background checks. No call for assault weapons bans. Nothing. His silence and inaction are complicity.

Speaking of complicity, Johnson met last week with members of “Women for Gun Rights,” a meeting that Johnson proudly featured on Twitter with a note that they discussed “safeguarding our Second Amendment rights.”

Got that? Johnson is offering to safeguard the Second Amendment but offers nothing but prayer to protect future victims from death and injury by weapons of war. He—and all Republicans—are on the wrong side of this issue. Per a Pew Research Center survey, 61% of Americans say that it is too easy to obtain a gun. More importantly, 73% of non-owners say it is too easy to own a gun—and non-owners make up 70% of the US population. I will let you do the math, but those numbers mean that gun safety advocates should win 100% of elections in which enhancing gun laws is a significant issue. Mike Johnson is the worst representative on this critical issue at a moment of crisis in America.

And I haven’t even mentioned Ukraine, having a functioning federal government, and choosing leaders by elections rather than violence as issues where Johnson is weak. But you can check out those topics in Aftergut’s article.

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October 27, 2023

26/10/2023

"A choice Republicans will regret."
October 26, 2023

As I begin to write the newsletter on Wednesday evening, reports of another mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine, are streaming across the airwaves. This uniquely American phenomenon of mass killings that occur with sickening regularity must stop. It is on the ballot in 2024, 2026, 2028—and forever thereafter. It is on the Supreme Court’s docket this term. It is on the PTA agenda of every primary school in America. It is on the minds of every high school parent, teacher, student, and staff. It is a lurking concern of every employer and employee in every workplace in our nation.

One man. One gun. Sixteen dead (at least) and sixty injured in an hour. The Framers could not conceive of such violence and did not intend to enshrine the right to possess weapons of mass murder in our nation’s founding charter—notwithstanding the grotesque intellectual contortions and bad faith arguments of Justice Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito.

We must pursue every legal path to ban weapons of war in the hands of citizens. Impose civil liability on manufacturers. Ban assault rifles and every clever modification by merchants of death to circumvent those bans. Expand the Supreme Court to reclaim the original intent of the Second Amendment. Pass federal legislation. Amend the Constitution. No effort is in vain. We owe it to every victim of every mass shooting, domestic violence, robbery, gang murder, su***de, and accidental shooting. Enough is enough.

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October 26, 2023

25/10/2023

"Speaker for a day."
October 25, 2023

It is difficult to describe the shambolic state of the Republican Party on its 21st day without a Speaker of the House, so I will borrow a description that William Saletan penned in 2016: “The GOP is a failed state. Donald Trump is its warlord.” (Due credit to Josh Marshall, who used that phrase to open his Editor’s Blog today.) The truth of Saletan’s insight was demonstrated after Tom Emmer was forced out as “Speaker designee” after only four hours. Per Talking Points Memo, Trump bragged about taking down Emmer:

"By Tuesday afternoon Trump called one person close to him with the message, 'He’s done. It’s over. I killed him.'"

The GOP is burning through candidates for Speaker at such a furious pace that it makes little sense to review the events of Tuesday in detail. In short, the third-ranking member of the GOP caucus (Tom Emmer) was the “Speaker designee” for a period equal to 1/60th of a “Scaramucci” (the length of time that Anthony Scaramucci served as White House Communications Director under Trump). The GOP caucus immediately retreated behind closed doors so they could scream at one another in private.

As of Tuesday evening, the GOP caucus is considering such wild ideas as electing “co-speakers” Kevin McCarthy and Jim Jordan (who would be “assistant Speaker), electing a member who has served only three years in the House (Byron Donalds of Florida), or electing Trump as Speaker (not kidding).

Late Tuesday evening, Republicans nominated Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana as its next sacrificial victim. Johnson lost in previous ballots to Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan, and Tom Emmer. He voted against the certification of the count of electoral ballots in 2020 and took the lead in authoring a brief to the Supreme Court seeking to overturn the election. In other words, he is unfit to serve in Congress, let alone serve as Speaker.

Johnson “won” the nomination with 128 votes in a secret ballot and then called for a roll-call vote in which no GOP member voted against him. But there were three votes recorded as “present,” and 22 members were absent. On those numbers, it is impossible to know whether Johnson has enough Republican votes to be elected as Speaker on Wednesday.

Even if Johnson is elected as Speaker by the House, he must pass legislation that will also pass in the Senate. Given Johnson’s extremist views, that outcome has little chance of happening.

The solution to the GOP impasse has been obvious since the day that Kevin McCarthy was allegedly elected as Speaker in January 2023: Form a bipartisan governing coalition with Democrats. If six Republicans agree to join in common cause with the Democratic caucus, they can elect a Republican Speaker who can keep the government open, pass a budget, and provide defense funding to Ukraine and Israel. We have covered this ground repeatedly in the last month, so I will not tarry. Republicans have wasted 21 days they could have used to pass eleven bills necessary to fund the government for 2023-24.

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October 25, 2023

24/10/2023

"The GOP breaks apart."
October 24, 2023

The House GOP is holding a secret “primary” for candidates for Speaker on Monday evening. They will begin secret voting on Tuesday morning to nominate a Speaker. With any luck, they will move to a floor vote by all members to elect a Speaker on Tuesday afternoon. That seemingly normal schedule belies the seismic shift that is shaking the foundation of the Republican Party. The inability of Republicans to elect a Speaker is confirmation that the GOP has effectively dissolved and continues to operate as a party in name only. See Professor Danielle Allen in Washington Post, "Opinion | A functioning democratic system would make Hakeem Jeffries speaker."

As Professor Danielle Allen explains,

"The solution to the leadership void in the House of Representatives is staring us in the face. We have three parties in Congress, not two: the Freedom Caucus Party, the Old Republican Party and the Democrats. The last one has the most members, so it should have the House speakership.

While all the members of the House with an R after their name might still be trying to convince themselves that they are one party, they can’t fool the rest of us. The differences are clear as day. As long as the groups stick to a commitment to be themselves, they will not be able to find a speaker with staying power.

They can continue to torture themselves and the country, or they can face the truth, split and take care of the divorce details necessary for ushering in a three-party system."

For obvious reasons, declaring the time of death of the Republican Party is not something that current Republicans are eager to do. But if any of the 222 “Republican” members of Congress care about the well-being and safety of Americans more than they care about the fate of the Republican Party, we should see significant progress this year.

Experiencing the dissolution of the Republican Party will be painful and disruptive for everyone, including Democrats. We should not assume that having three major parties instead of two will automatically inure to the benefit of Democrats. The best path forward for Democrats is to remain focused on registering new voters, motivating existing voters to show up at the polls, and protecting the right to vote and the integrity of elections. That should keep us busy while we watch the painful, unfolding drama of the GOP’s demise.

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October 24, 2023

23/10/2023

"The coming week."
October 23, 2023

As America faces multiple crises that demand urgent action, House Republicans are going through the motions of electing a Speaker of the House. Whatever they do, it won’t matter. Until Republicans elect a Speaker who enjoys bipartisan support, any Speaker elected solely by Republicans will be doomed to fail. It is not enough to be elected Speaker. The new Speaker must immediately shepherd eleven spending bills through the House before the November 17 shutdown date—or gain support for a “continuing resolution” to keep the federal government open on a temporary basis.

Even more daunting, the eleven bills (or continuing resolution) must also pass in the Senate. It does no good for House Republicans to pass bills that are publicity stunts; such bills will not keep the government open.

So, here’s the point that will be lost in the media’s “Where’s Waldo?” coverage of the Speaker’s race: The question is not “Who can win 217 votes on the House floor?” but “When will Republicans nominate someone capable of passing legislation that will be approved by the Senate and signed by President Biden?” The answer to the latter question is, “Only when Republicans nominate a candidate who will be elected with bipartisan support.”

Sadly, Republicans have yet to humiliate and debase themselves so completely that they will—gasp!—vote for someone who will accept Democratic support to govern the House.

With that bracing reminder as background, let’s briefly look at the meaningless chaos that Americans must endure in the coming week.

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October 23, 2023

20/10/2023

"We cannot give up on peace."
October 20, 2023

In a short but impactful speech, President Biden explained why American support for Israel and Ukraine is vital to national security and global peace. It was a great speech. Not a good speech or an excellent speech. It was a great speech that rose to a fragile and volatile moment in world history. He moved quickly and easily from global security to the importance of NATO unity in Ukraine to the right of Israel and the Palestinian people to self-determination to condemning antisemitism and Islamophobia to mourning the murder of a six-year-old Palestinian boy he called by name, “Wadea.”

As with his remarks in Israel, Biden did not shrink from difficult subjects. He simultaneously recognized the suffering of the Israeli and Palestinian peoples—as well as the suffering of Americans from Israel and Gaza. He said, “I see you. You belong. And I want to say this to you — you’re all Americans.” In an important acknowledgment, he said:

"We must, without equivocation, denounce antisemitism. We must also, without equivocation, denounce Islamophobia."

In a significant foreign policy shift, he equated the anti-democratic animus of Hamas and Vladimir Putin, saying that both sought to “annihilate” democracy. He said, “Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they are both threats to democracy.” Biden linked Putin and Hamas—"dictators and terrorists”—in the following passage:

"History has taught us that when terrorists don’t pay a price for their terror, when dictators don’t pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction."

Biden also urged Americans to recall the importance of America to maintaining world peace and stability. In memorable phrases, he said that America “is the indispensable nation” and “a beacon to the world.”

Biden said that he would submit a $100 billion proposal to Congress to support Ukraine and Israel. He said that it represents “a smart investment that will pay dividends to Americans for generations.” There remains serious doubt whether House Republicans can elect a speaker to act on President Biden’s request. See below.

As with his remarks in Israel, Biden urged Israel to consider the downstream consequences of its actions before acting to invade Gaza. Per The Guardian, “He stressed that Israel should not make the same “mistakes” made by the US after 9/11 when, he said, Americans were “blinded by rage.” (On that topic, there is conflicting evidence of Israel’s intentions. See below.)

Shortly before Biden spoke to the American people, a US Navy ship in the northern Red Sea “intercepted three land attack cruise missiles and several drones that were launched by Houthi forces in Yemen.” See The Guardian. It is not clear whether the missiles were headed toward Israel or the US ship, but the incident may represent the first involvement by US forces in the Israeli war against Hamas.

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October 20, 2023

19/10/2023

"Don't give up! (A pep talk)."
October 19, 2023

This is a pep talk to my family (and myself). You can listen in.

We are living through an extraordinary time. The world is being rocked by multiple overlapping crises: The terrorist attack on Israel on October 7; Israel’s subsequent declaration of war on Hamas; protests throughout the Middle East sparked by a Hamas missile strike on a hospital in Gaza; the ongoing war against the Ukrainian people by Vladimir Putin; the inability of the majority party in the House to elect a Speaker; the possibility of a government shutdown before Thanksgiving; upcoming elections in Virginia and Ohio that will serve as bellwethers for 2024; the hottest year (2023) and hottest month (July) since scientists began keeping climate records; and a new term of the US Supreme Court that could fundamentally reshape American society and personal liberties (or not).

That’s a lot.

It is easy to feel overwhelmed, to withdraw, to look away.

Don’t.

Emotional exhaustion and intentional disengagement are the goals of bad-faith tactics used by Republicans to undermine democracy. During a time when Republicans should be joining Democrats in a national unity government, they continue to push an extremist agenda. When Rep. Tom Cole nominated Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House on Wednesday morning, Cole said that one of Jordan’s leading qualifications is that he is committed to cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. The media yawned.

Our generation has one job: To endure, to abide, to keep the faith until this moment of reactionary extremism subsides. If we can do that, we will leave our heirs a healthier, stronger democracy.

This pep talk is prompted by a recent Pew Research poll and a personal anecdote. Let’s start with the anecdote and expand from there...

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October 19, 2023

17/10/2023

"Biden's deft management of crisis in the Middle East."
October 17, 2023

I do not mean to sound like a broken record, but after six months of daily negativity regarding President Biden, it is gratifying to see Biden in command of the most difficult situation a president can face—a war in the Middle East. Although Israel is in charge of its war effort, it is undeniable that the United States is having a significant impact on rapidly unfolding events. That fact is due in large part to Biden’s deft management of the situation, his effective speeches and interviews supporting Israel, and his insistence on adherence to international law. Moreover, Biden is acting boldly by undertaking a wartime trip to Israel in advance of the invasion of Gaza—a moment when America can still affect the outcome for the better.

The war in Israel is not about American politics. But at a moment when Republicans in general and Trump in particular are looking small, petty, and antidemocratic, Biden is acting in the best traditions of American presidents in times of crisis. For that, we should be grateful.

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October 17, 2023

13/10/2023

"Only one path forward for Republicans."
October 13, 2023

Each additional day that Republicans fail to elect a Speaker of the House is a “never-before-in-the-history-of-our-nation” event. Kevin McCarthy was the first speaker to be ousted on a motion to vacate. Steve Scalise is the first “post-motion-to-vacate” nominee for speaker to withdraw his candidacy before a floor vote on his nomination. We are in uncharted constitutional waters.

The “Speaker of the House” is one of two legislative officers mentioned in the Constitution. (Art I, Sec 3, Cl. 5: “The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker.”) The Speaker is second in the line of succession prescribed in the Presidential Succession Act of 1947. The power of the House to act is dependent on a speaker who manages the calendar, controls debate, and calls for votes on motions to advance and approve legislation.

The inability of Republicans to elect a speaker is due, in part, to their narrow margin of control—four votes. But Nancy Pelosi accomplished great things with a four-vote margin during the 117th Congress (2021-2022)—the first two years of President Biden’s historic legislative run.

The dysfunction in the Republican House is a direct consequence of MAGA’s election of extremist candidates in gerrymandered districts (e.g., Jim Jordan). Those MAGA extremists constitute one of several independent federations operating under the umbrella name “Republican Party” in the House. But as is plain, the term “Republican Party” is a notional concept in the House with no operational consequence.

The atomism of the House GOP will not be overcome no matter how many times the fractious Republican caucus votes for a speaker. Nor will it change if Republicans elect a speaker subject to removal by a motion to vacate made by a single member.

The consequences are real; some Republicans understand that fact. GOP Rep. Michael McCaul said the following after Scalise withdrew his name from consideration:

"We are living in a dangerous world; the world’s on fire. Our adversaries are watching what we do — and quite frankly, they like it.

I see a lot of threats out there. One of the biggest threats I see is in the [GOP caucus] room, because we can’t unify as a conference and put the speaker in the chair . . . ."

There is only one path forward. It is staring Republicans in the face. But they have yet to debase themselves enough or humiliate enough of their wannabe leaders to accept the inevitable: They do not have a governable majority and must join with Democrats to elect a consensus candidate with support from both parties.

Or, as Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said, the only path forward is for:

"traditional Republicans break with the extremists within the House Republican Conference and partner with Democrats on a bipartisan path forward."

Some Republicans understand that fact but have yet to find the courage to speak that truth out loud. The time will come; it must. The only question is how long before Republicans accept that truth—and how much drama and disruption the GOP will inflict on the American people before they surrender to reality.

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October 13, 2023

12/10/2023

"Republicans can't get out of their own way."
October 12, 2023

During a moment of global crisis, House Republicans had the opportunity to look forward by selecting a speaker who would form a governing coalition or look backward by selecting a speaker who would maintain partisan grievances. In nominating Rep. Steve Scalise, House Republicans looked backward. In a closed-door vote by the GOP caucus, Scalise won 113 votes and Jim Jordan won 99. House Republicans are deeply divided—an inauspicious sign for the short-term functioning of the US government.

It is not clear whether Scalise can win 217 votes on the floor of the House to become Speaker, but that is a detail subordinate to the larger point that Republicans have yet to grasp: They do not have a majority capable of governing. Republicans will not have such a majority even if Scalise or Jordan or (GOP player to be named later) manages to cobble together 217 votes to be elected as speaker.

It is not enough for House Republicans to win once. To govern, a party must be able to win consistently. And here, “winning” doesn’t mean passing legislation on the floor of the House; it means passing legislation that will be approved in the Senate and signed by the President. House Republicans do not yet understand that truth—as the nomination of Steve Scalise proves. Until Republicans nominate a speaker who has the courage and support to join with House Democrats in a governing coalition, Republicans are doomed to a string of failed speakers hostage to the extremist elements in their party.

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October 12, 2023

12/10/2023

Today's Edition newsletter started in February 2017 as my effort (as a father and husband) to provide hope and perspective to my family after the unexpected results of the 2016 election. Over time, my family email was shared among friends and became of community of like-minded citizens devoted to preserving American democracy.

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A reflection on today's news through the lens of hope. Click to read Today's Edition Newsletter, by Robert B. Hubbell, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

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