03/04/2026
Iran is seeking permanent leverage over the Middle East with new rules for the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran’s ability to control this international waterway, through which one-fifth of the worldwide oil supply used to pass, has become Iran’s biggest leverage against the U.S., its Gulf neighbors and the global economy.
Whether the war ends in a success or defeat for Iran depends first and foremost on whether Tehran emerges from this conflict still holding the strait—and, with it, the keys to the worldwide energy markets.
“To the Iranians, the Strait of Hormuz now matters more than the nuclear program. The nuclear program was symbolic, but didn’t provide them with any deterrence,” said Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and former senior State Department official who has been involved in informal discussions with Iranian representatives.
“Now, the only reason why they are surviving this war is because of the strait. The Iranian thinking is that, at the end, the strait must remain under their control because it is their only deterrence and only source of revenue.”
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