Futures Truth Company

22/01/2025

Stock Market Valuation.
Are stocks over valued? Here is a chart of the S&P 500 stocks versus currency in circulation.
Note that stocks are in the “Extreme over valued” range. The third highest level of the chart. The highest being the great depression. Then the tech bubble.
Also note these are quarterly bars. Stocks can stay in the over valued area for months before a correction.
This tells me the stock market, as a whole, is not a “bargain”.
This does not mean a crash is imminent. Just don’t expect too many more years of 20% plus returns in the near future.

More charts on our Facebook feed. Be sure to “like” and follow. https://www.facebook.com/FuturesTruthMag/

Sign up for updates here: https://conta.cc/42c82wj
Get last weeks update here : https://conta.cc/40ESFM3

21/01/2025

Here is the table of the "sharpe" ratios of these 10 systems. RC831 Combo ID system has the highest average profit per month at $456. StemWinder3 is second with $137 per month average. RC831 system has a Standard Deviation of $1,051. This means (historically) the system may have monthly P/L of $456 (average) plus or minus (atleast) $1,051. So it can have months where it loses $595 or gains $1,507. StemWinder 3 MES daytrade system doesn't make the most money. It does win on the "Risk Adjusted" (Sharpe) ratio. Its Standard deviation of $177 means (historically) it had monthly P/L, most of the time ranging from -$40 to + $314.

Sign up to Auto Trade StemWinder 3 : https://striker.com/acctGain.php

21/01/2025

Cocoa, Daily Bar Chart
I believe Cocoa will break 16,000 later this year or early next. That is a 30% rally from current levels. The most recent rally from October lows to December highs was nearly 100% in 2 months. A similar wave up recent lows could put Cocoa at 19,000 by spring.
Note the pullback to the grey line at the 9,800 level. This is the 50% correction target. How precise is this?
On Friday, price had a slight breakout of the downward trend line across the reaction highs. This could be the start of the next wave up.

Sign up for updates here: https://conta.cc/42c82wj
Get last weeks update here : https://conta.cc/40ESFM3

20/01/2025

Here is the Futures Truth performance updated through December, 2024. These are actual results. Commissions have beed deducted at the trade level. Lease fees have NOT been deducted. Lease fees varies. These numbers are from sources believed to be reliable.

This is not a "Top 10" table as there are just as many losing systems as winning. Not many systems to be found which trade Micro's. I am trying to expand my sourcing of reliable post trade results. Please inform me if you know any.

Sign up to Auto Trade here : https://striker.com/acctGain.php

20/01/2025

Regardless of what and how much Elon and D.O.G.E. can cut in expenditures, the current debt must be financed. And it will be financed at higher and higher interest rates.

20/01/2025

Last week's performance of selected commodity and crypto markets. Wow. Check out bitcoin.

Sign up for updates here: https://conta.cc/42c82wj
Get last weeks update here : https://conta.cc/40ESFM3

20/01/2025

Weekly Highlights & Recaps from Previous Updates
SPX exactly filled the gap I highlighted here last week. Did you catch it? I highlighted a 5790 support. Prices went to 5773. I would say that is “spot-on”. On Monday, prices had an “exhaustion” gap down to support. Since the open, prices have rallied over 3% in a week.

S&Ps had a decisive break of the upper trend line of this recent a-b-c-d-e reaction. Dow Jones index had a breakaway gap of an a-b-c correction on Thursday. I expect higher prices.

Crude Oil had a “two bar flip-flop” at the prior pivot high of October. I expect lower prices.

Coffee futures are holding within 6% of multi year highs. They had a breakout of the downward trend line across the tops of reaction down move.

Bitcoin bottomed just where I charted a few weeks ago. This week is broke above $100,000, again. Will this hold? I had originally charted an A-B-C correction ending in late February around $84,000. Time will tell.

16/01/2025

Rubicon - Hypothetical Positions
Here are hypothetical positions of our Rubicon Trend Following system.

More info on Rubicon here : http://store.payloadz.com/go?id=2506646&_gl=1*14dab45*_gcl_au*NjcxNDAzNTAzLjE3MjMzMDIzNDA.

15/01/2025

Crude Oil - L-Formation Up.
Coming off a triple bottom late 2024, crude has rallied strongly.
Recent action had formed a beautiful “L-Formation” up. This is characterized by a strong rally and no significant sell-off. Exactly what we had. No significant breaks of daily lows for last 5 days. Friday had the breakout up. Next stop could be $80.

14/01/2025

SPX, Daily Bar Chart
S&Ps are at the lows for the year. Friday broke below the low of the tail on the first day of the year. This is a major bearish signals. Tails are clear signs of buyers and sellers. In this case, a bottom tail signals buyers came in strong. All these buyers are now losing money. And, may soon be forced to sell out.
The “Island Reversal” pattern from November comes into play around the 5,790 level. The red line. This is also a big gapped being talked about by alot of talking heads on youtube. Not much of a stretch to get down to that level.
The next support for me would be the high of the low bar in yellow at 5,740. This would be about 1.5% lower from here. The lows around 5,700 need to hold or a more significant correction could be made.

14/01/2025

Musings
Bonds continue to get sold off. Driving long term rates higher. Mortgage rates hit fresh highs at 6.93%. Up almost a full point since the FED started LOWERING interest rates. This will not help the economy. As, real estate is such a big driver of consumer spending.
Further, 10 year yield futures have jumped from 3.6% to 4.77% since September rate cut. This is incredible. I believe the next financial crisis will start, or has already started, in the debt market. A tech bubble is nothing. A real estate bubble is a small thing. A bond / debt crisis is a BIG thing. As it has the ability to shut down the economy; from housing to business credit to credit cards.

Sign up for updates here: https://conta.cc/40dhTja
Get last weeks update here : https://conta.cc/4gPcSEu

Email from Futures Truth Company   WEEKLY UPDATE : January 11, 2025 Welcome to my weekly opinions on the markets and those things which can move the markets. Whether it's stocks, futures or crypto. Si

14/01/2025

Weekly Highlights & Recaps from Previous Updates

It is reported that Elon Musk wants to build a giant solar farm in the US. He said a 100 square mile solar farm to provide all the energy the country needs. That would require 5.1 billion ounces of silver to build. We only produce 900 million ounces per year. So, that is almost 6 years of production.

Big Jobs Market report surprises everyone. Great news for the economy and job seekers. Not great news for those wanting more FED rate cuts. This caused a big “risk-off” trade. Let’s wait for the revision next week.

Bonds broke down.

Palladium had a 4 CL-Rev Up off the high of the low bar on the weekly bars.

Soybeans had a spring off of 4 year lows 3 weeks ago. This week finally had a strong rally.

Coffee is holding in a tight pattern at All-Time-Highs. Last week was an up week after two down weeks. Great pattern for a mean reversion long trade. Also a 4 Close Reversal up on the daily bars

Bitcoin is getting closer to my $87,000 mid January wave target I highlighted earlier. This would be wave 1 of a 3 wave down move.

10/01/2025

Bitcoin - Playing the Moving Average.
Bitcoin continued to find support at the $92,000 mark highlighted last week. Price rallied and penetrated the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour. This moving average has been working lately. Note all the touch points - circled. Also note the break in mid December. Price has closed above for the first time since then. We still have the $100,000 hurdle to get through. Note the nice A-B-C reaction from the highs.

>>> Sign Up Link : https://lp.constantcontactpages.com/sl/Cz2Vglm
>>> LINK to newsletter : https://conta.cc/41UHfom

More charts on our Facebook feed. Be sure to “like” and follow. https://www.facebook.com/FuturesTruthMag/

09/01/2025

Bonds, 4 Hour Bar Chart
Bonds are holding at 1 month lows in this chart. What the chart doesn’t show is that 2024 closed near the absolute lows. Just 6% off lows in the bond market going all the way back to 2007.
A stock market crash is painful. People lose money. A bond market crash can be catastrophic for the economy. It would send rates sky rocketing to double digits. Imagine mortgages at 20%; business loans at 15% Credit card interest at 40%. The economy would just stop.
All while the Fed is LOWERING short term interest rates. This has never happened.
Our Rubicon system has been long TBF for a few weeks. TBF is the Inverse 20 year Treasury ETF.

>>> Sign Up Link : https://lp.constantcontactpages.com/sl/Cz2Vglm
>>> LINK to newsletter : https://conta.cc/41UHfom

09/01/2025

The Santa Rally was a bust this year. S&Ps underperformed their 5 year average by over 3 percentage points. In other words, SPY lost 2.53% compared to a + 0.53% average. Nasdaq did even worse; under performing by almost 4 percentage points.
Corn, Beans and Wheat did show out-performance. I highlighted the grains as a potential play. Beans were up 2.36% in 2024. This compared to a 1.36% 5 year average gain.

08/01/2025

30 year bonds have dropped 42% since the covid peak. that is a crash. How is your 60/40 portfolio?

03/01/2025

Stemwinder 3
Our day-trade system which has two components : a trend and counter trend entry method.
You can subscribe for $10 per month per contract thru Striker.com.

Micro ES (MES)
12/24/24 Trend Buy +20 points
TOTAL +20 Points

Micro NQ (MNQ)
12/24/24 Trend Buy -23.25 points
TOTAL -23.25 Points

past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Striker specializes in the disciplined ex*****on of 3rd party trading systems. We offer an array of credible and robust automated trading strategies, and maintain extensive records of actual performance for our clients. Because of Striker's coherent policies, our dedicated professionals are free to....

02/01/2025

Reversal Patterns
The “Island” reversal is one of my “9 Patterns that Signal a Trend Change”. Here it is in the Soybeans. Price started the “Island” with an “Exhaustion” gap to end its short down move. Price followed through down some then bounced. The pattern ended with a “breakaway” gap up which formed the “Island”.
On the daily chart, this was another trend change pattern; the “3 Bar Equilibrium”.

Sign up for updates here : https://lp.constantcontactpages.com/sl/Cz2Vglm