Analyzing War

11/05/2023

Although TikTok users consider the app harmless fun, a growing number of cybersecurity experts and elected officials aren’t so sure.

More than 86 million Americans use the social media app TikTok to create, share, and view short videos, featuring everything from cute animals and influencer advice to comedy and dance performances.Concerned experts point out that TikTok’s parent company, the Beijing-based ByteDance, has been accu...

10/05/2023

In a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee, military commanders and defense officials discuss the increasing missile capabilities of Russia and China, particularly hypersonic weapons, and highlight the challenges and initiatives in countering this evolving threat.

10/05/2023

The implementation of the U.S. export control regulations on October 7, targeting China's AI and semiconductor industries, marked a significant shift in U.S.-China relations and posed challenges to China's semiconductor strategy in the global technology competition.

10/05/2023

The top U.S. intelligence official warns that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could disrupt production by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) and result in a significant economic impact, potentially wiping out up to US$1 trillion per year from the global economy.

16/03/2023

"It is the height of hypocrisy for the Chinese government to hyperventilate over a nuclear-powered submarine program in Australia 🇦🇺 when the PLA Navy has commissioned at least 15 nuclear-powered boats in the past two decades, several of which carry nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Chinese sub fleet is projected to grow by at least 10 by 2030. Under Australia’s plan, the Royal Australian Navy may only start receiving its new submarines by that point."

While we await the AUKUS partners’ announcement of their plans for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), the public discourse on the agreement has become wildly out of sync with reality.Charges that Canberra’s SSN program might promote conflict with Beijing or start a nuclear a...

05/03/2023

"As a computer scientist, I often field complaints that reveal a common misconception about large language models like ChatGPT and its older brethren GPT3 and GPT2: that they are some kind of “super Googles,” or digital versions of a reference librarian, looking up answers to questions from some infinitely large library of facts, or smooshing together pastiches of stories and characters. They don’t do any of that – at least, they were not explicitly designed to.

"A language model like ChatGPT, which is more formally known as a “generative pretrained transformer” (that’s what the G, P and T stand for), takes in the current conversation, forms a probability for all of the words in its vocabulary given that conversation, and then chooses one of them as the likely next word. Then it does that again, and again, and again, until it stops."

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It doesn’t take much to get ChatGPT to make a factual mistake. My son is doing a report on U.S. presidents, so I figured I’d help him out by looking up a few biographies. I tried asking for a list of books about Abraham Lincoln and it did a pretty good job:

04/03/2023

"There are two main ways AI is bolstering cybersecurity. First, AI can help automate many tasks that a human analyst would often handle manually."

"Second, AI can help detect patterns within large quantities of data that human analysts can’t see."

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The average business receives 10,000 alerts every day from the various software tools it uses to monitor for intruders, malware and other threats. Cybersecurity staff often find themselves inundated with data they need to sort through to manage their cyber defenses.

03/03/2023

"The U.S Marine Corps and the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) began the bilateral Iron Fist 2023 exercise last week [of 13 February]. It’s the first exercise that has been held in Japan since it began in 2006."

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The U.S Marine Corps and the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) began the bilateral Iron Fist 2023 exercise last week. It’s the first exercise that has been held in Japan since it began in 2006. Previous iterations were held at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, Calif.

02/03/2023

"The U.S., Japan and South Korea carried out a trilateral Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) drill in the Sea of Japan [Wednesday, 15 February] in response to North Korean missile launches Saturday and Monday."

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The U.S., Japan and South Korea carried out a trilateral Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) drill in the Sea of Japan Wednesday in response to North Korean missile launches Saturday and Monday.U.S. Navy destroyer USS Barry (DDG-52), Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyer JS Atago (DDG-177)...

02/03/2023

"The U.S., Japan and South Korea carried out a trilateral Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) drill in the Sea of Japan Wednesday [15 February] in response to North Korean missile launches Saturday and Monday."

⚡️ http://ow.ly/h1hO50N1bYp

📸 JSDF Photo

26/02/2023

"The MIT Technology Review called Hikvision, which is headquartered in China’s eastern city of Hangzhou, 'the world’s biggest surveillance company you’ve never heard of'."

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Australian government offices have begun removing more than 900 Chinese-made surveillance cameras, intercoms, electronic entry systems and video recorders. Last week, a government audit found the technology had been installed in more than 250 departments and agencies.Concerns over the cameras prompt...

25/02/2023

"The Navy’s DDG(X) program envisages procuring a class of next-generation guided-missile destroyers (DDGs) to replace the Navy’s Ticonderoga (CG-47) class Aegis cruisers and older Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) class Aegis destroyers."

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The Navy’s DDG(X) program envisages procuring a class of next-generation guided-missile destroyers (DDGs) to replace the Navy’s Ticonderoga (CG-47) class Aegis cruisers and older Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) class Aegis destroyers. The Navy wants to procure the first DDG(X) in FY2030. The Navy’s pro...

24/02/2023

"Militaries around the world have learned from recent combat operations in Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh: Weaponized artificial intelligence is the future of warfare."

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The U.S. military is intensifying its commitment to the development and use of autonomous weapons, as confirmed by an update to a Department of Defense directive. The update, released Jan. 25, 2023, is the first in a decade to focus on artificial intelligence autonomous weapons. It follows a related...

23/02/2023

"Military strategists in both countries [U.S. and China] know that advanced weaponry requires cutting-edge chips.

"And China’s leaders are equally aware that the most advanced chips—and the technology to manufacture them—are produced in supply chains controlled by only five countries: Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan and the United States. Without these countries’ cooperation it will be an uphill struggle for China to develop military technology on a par with the West."

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The ‘Malacca dilemma’ is generally considered to top China’s list of strategic concerns. The narrow strait linking the Indian and Pacific oceans serves as the conduit for around 60% of China’s oil imports. In a crisis, it would quickly become a chokepoint. Not only is China’s military stra...

17/02/2023

ICYMI - Extended deterrence across the First Island Chain ?

✅ https://lnkd.in/gNxqb2_2

15/02/2023

“The maiden landing of the MiG-29K also heralds the integration of the fighter aircraft with INS Vikrant.”

An Indian-built light fighter was the first to land aboard and launch from the Indian Navy’s first domestically built aircraft carrier, the service announced this week.A naval variant of the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) made an arrested landing aboard INS Vikrant (R 11...

14/02/2023

"Short of acquiring nuclear weapons, building a fleet of SSGNs [nuclear-powered guided missile submarines] is the most effective way of shaping Australia’s strategic environment and deterring a major power."

China’s growing power and assertiveness have been significant drivers behind developments in Australian defence policy in the past few years. The previous government’s strategic update determined that the defence force needs the capability to ‘shape’ Australia’s strategic environment, ‘d...

13/02/2023

"Chinese ships can target northern Australia from within the Indonesian archipelago, and Australia is in range of Chinese land-based missiles and long-range bombers in the South China Sea."

The debate on how best to defend Australia in a worsening strategic environment is likely to be substantially settled with the defence strategic review, due for completion in March. Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles recently emphasised the need for long-range strike capabilit...

10/02/2023

"Given the complicated history of the U.S. and the Philippines, it is important to know what Filipinos think of the U.S. military’s maintaining a formal presence there today."

The United States and the Philippines announced on Feb. 2, 2023, that the U.S. is expanding its military presence across more military bases in the Southeast Asian country, giving the U.S. a potential advantage in its efforts to thwart China’s possible efforts to take control of Taiwan.

09/02/2023

"Many U.S. lawmakers have objected to the app’s location tracking services, saying it could allow the Chinese government to monitor the movements and locations of U.S. citizens – including members of the military or government officials."

A growing number of public schools and colleges in the U.S. are moving to ban TikTok – the popular Chinese-owned social media app that allows users to share short videos.They are following the lead of the federal government and several states, that are banishing the social media app because author...

27/01/2023

🔥 Building situational awareness for the Indo-Pacific

✅ Coming soon

⚡️ analyzingwar.org

26/01/2023

"To deter North Korea—and limit damage if a conflict breaks out—South Korea is operationalizing an independent conventional counterforce strategy, or offensive and defensive measures designed to destroy or deplete the nuclear forces of an adversary."

In response to North Korea's nuclear weapons program, South Korea is quietly pursuing an independent conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy. This strategy is unique. Few, if any, nonnuclear states have sought to rely on advanced conventional capabilities to deter a nuclear-armed adversa...

25/01/2023

"Simply put, we need to see far to strike far. The sensor ends of that ‘kill chain’ must be resilient, even in highly contested environments, and have a sustained hemispheric gaze from Australia’s shores. Crewed aircraft such as the P-8A Poseidon or autonomous aerial vehicles such as the MQ-4B Triton are but one part of any future ISR capability for the Australian Defence Force."

The debate on how best to defend Australia in a worsening strategic environment is likely to be substantially settled with the defence strategic review, due for completion in March. Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles recently emphasised the need for long-range strike capabilit...

13/01/2023

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❓ How has the U.S. political position been strengthened since the start of 2022?

❓ What risks could arise in 2023 that require careful management between the U.S. and China?

❓ Will the U.S. 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳 be able to work together to tackle common global challenges, or will their differences prevent them from cooperating?

🔑 takeaways -
1️⃣ China's has weakened due to expanding state intervention, waves of COVID-19 lockdowns, a property sector slowdown and softening international demand for Chinese .

2️⃣ The U.S. has made historic investments in U.S. and strengthened bonds with global partners.

3️⃣ U.S. officials are receiving consistent demands from foreign counterparts to responsibly manage competition with China and focus on tackling common challenges rather than great power competition.

4️⃣ Biden’s administration must address differences directly with China if it wants to successfully manage points of contention and control the risk of escalation.

5️⃣ The U.S. and China must figure out how to act in mutual self-interest by pooling capabilities toward addressing common challenges such as , stabilization and public health if they want to make progress on global issues.

At the start of 2022, China’s economy appeared strong, Beijing seemed to have contained the spread of COVID-19, Sino–Russian relations were deepening and there was growing talk of autocracies stealing the march on democracies across the world. China’s leaders were proclaiming that ‘time and ...

12/01/2023

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It is clear that the ethical use of AI requires a combination of design principles, process protocols, and data set audits. Governments should fund basic research into ethics by algorithms and provide oversight to ensure that these principles are being met. Furthermore, technologies like differential privacy can help preserve anonymity in databases used by AI while still allowing them to be useful. Finally, an ethical audit should include scrutiny of algorithms, data sets, and applications to make sure they do not lead to morally fateful events when deployed.

One of the most frequent questions I was asked as U.S. Secretary of Defense (2015–2017) was whether there will be autonomous lethal weapons. My answer was no, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) would not deploy or use truly autonomous systems in the application of lethal force. Being technologic...

12/01/2023

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This complex and multifaceted situation demonstrates the need for an integrated, multilateral approach to denuclearizing . While the demands of each individual stakeholder need to be taken into consideration, a comprehensive regional perspective must be embraced in order to effectively address the North Korean nuclear problem. A Northeast Asian Security Summit could provide an institutional framework within which all agenda items can be discussed and negotiated in earnest. Such a summit would require cooperation between the and , as well as the participation of , if it is to have any chance of success.

🔑 takeaways:
1️⃣ North Korea 🇰🇵 has declared its possession of tactical and has tested over 50 ballistic since the beginning of 2022.

2️⃣ The United States 🇺🇸 and North Korea 🇰🇵 failed to come to an agreement at the Summit in February 2019 due to a lack of mutual trust.

3️⃣ 's 🇰🇷 Yoon Suk-yeol government has adopted a hardline policy regarding North Korea and is working with the U.S. to strengthen extended .

4️⃣ China 🇨🇳 is now rather indifferent towards North Korea 🇰🇵, and Japan 🇯🇵 is taking a hardline stance by adhering to before .

5️⃣ To achieve , there needs to be pragmatism, mutual trust and new multilateral arrangements such as an annual Northeast Asian security summit involving all major stakeholders including the U.S. and China, as well as Kim Jong-un himself.

On 19 September 2018, after signing the Pyongyang Declaration with then South Korean president Moon Jae-in, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared his desire for the Korean Peninsula to be free from nuclear weapons. In his speech at the Rungrado 1st of May Stadium in Pyongyang that evening, Moon r...

06/01/2023

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❓ What are the most noteworthy aspects of Japan's new security strategy?
❓ What is the role of technology in Japan's military expansion?
❓ How will Japan finance its new military ambition?

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's 🇯🇵 recent is a comprehensive attempt to address the regional challenges it faces, and provides an indication of Japan's commitment to protecting its sovereignty in a changing landscape. By introducing long-range strike capabilities, emphasizing the development of new technologies, and making investments in the SDF’s ability to fight as a cohesive force, Japan is sending a strong signal that it is taking its security seriously and is prepared to act if necessary.

In mid-December, the cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio approved the most ambitious and rapid expansion of military power in Japan since the country’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) were created in 1954. The aim is twofold: bolster Japan’s ability to deter aggression and ensure the SDF ...

05/01/2023

🤔🔥Some burning questions -
❓ How does the Ballistic Missile (BMD) program 🚀 protect from potential ballistic missile attacks?
❓ What role should the Aegis BMD program play in defending the U.S. 🇺🇸homeland against attack from ICBMs?
❓ How can ship-based lasers contribute to terminal-phase BMD operations and what impact will this have on required numbers of ship-based BMD interceptor ?

🔑 Key Takeaways:
1️⃣ The Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) program is carried out by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and the Navy, and provides Navy Aegis cruisers and destroyers with a capability to conduct BMD operations.
2️⃣ By 2023, there will be 50 total BMD-capable Aegis ships requiring maintenance support.
3️⃣ MDA’s FY2023 budget submission requests $1,659.1 million in procurement and and development funding for Aegis BMD efforts, including funding for two Aegis Ashore sites in 🇵🇱and 🇷🇴.
4️⃣ Issues for Congress regarding the program include approving/modifying annual procurement and research and development funding requests; adequacy of MDA’s cost estimating; role of the program in defending the US homeland against ICBMs; burden that BMD operations may be placing on Navy’s fleet of Aegis ships; allied burden sharing contributions; potential for ship-based lasers to contribute to Navy terminal-phase BMD operations; technical risk and test and evaluation issues in the program.
5️⃣ must consider relevant technical, operational, financial, political, and strategic issues when assessing the efficacy of Aegis BMD system upgrades or proposed changes to its structure or implementation .

The Aegis ballistic missile defense (BMD) program, which is carried out by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and the Navy, gives Navy Aegis cruisers and destroyers a capability for conducting BMD operations. BMD-capable Aegis ships operate in European waters to defend Europe from potential ballistic....

05/01/2023

🤔🔥Some burning questions -
❓ What advantages does Taiwan 🇹🇼possess in terms of its offensive cyber capabilities?
❓ How is Taiwan combatting the risk of losing connectivity in the event of a potential conflict with 🇨🇳?
❓How are Chinese planners and decision makers evaluating Taiwan's ICEF and its cyber capabilities?

🔑 Key Takeaways:
1️⃣ has developed organizational structures for offensive cyber capabilities and the Information Communication Electronic Force Command (ICEF) is central to this development.
2️⃣ Antiy, a Chinese anti-virus software provider, has exposed some Taiwanese offensive cyber capabilities, including Green Spot and Sapphire Mushroom groups.
3️⃣ A risk to the successful deployment of Taiwanese cyber capabilities in a potential conflict with China is a lack of internet connectivity; Taiwan is attempting to close this vulnerability through projects such as the Pacific Light Cable Network and Apricot cable system.
4️⃣ The vast majority of ICEF operations likely occur in the gray zone below the threshold of armed conflict, such as disrupting Chinese cyber groups before they can launch attacks and providing technical guidance to Taiwanese organizations on how to counter common malware and vulnerabilities.
5️⃣ Offensive should reinforce Taiwan’s shift away from a focus on large, expensive platforms toward more distributed, asymmetric capabilities to slow any Chinese aggression and give it more flexibility to respond to Chinese escalation.

⚡️ analyzingwar.org



https://analyzingwar.org/the-commons/cybersecurity/taiwans-offensive-cyber-capabilities-and-ramifications-for-a-taiwan-china-conflict/

Much media attention and scholarly research goes into understanding Chinese hacking campaigns. At the same time, Taiwan’s cyber capabilities are often overlooked, even though public sources indicate that Taiwan is an advanced cyber actor that has successfully and repeatedly breached key Chinese sy...

05/01/2023

🤔🔥Some burning questions -
❓ What evidence supports the claim that the long peace since the end of the Second World War is a genuine trend?
❓ Could changes in underlying social and political processes lead to a lasting trend toward peace, or is an inevitability?
❓ Are there other factors that can help determine whether trends in violent conflict exist, and how can they be used to reduce the likelihood of war?

🔑 Key Takeaways:
1️⃣ There is an ongoing debate as to whether or not there is a trend toward in the world since the Second World War.
2️⃣ This debate is associated with both liberalism and realism perspectives in international relations.
3️⃣ The difficulty of resolving this debate lies in the rare occurrence of wars, the multiple ways to formalize the notion of a trend, and other nonstationary characteristics of conflicts such as technological advances and economic development.
4️⃣ A trend exists if there is a measurable shift in the parameters of the underlying process that produces wars, relative to a model with constant parameters.
5️⃣ Data on the frequency and severity of wars alone are insufficient to detect any genuine changes in conflict-generating processes over the past 200 years; therefore, any underlying changes must be consistent with observed statistics for them to be considered a genuine trend.

⚡️ http://ow.ly/Gug350MikVB



http://ow.ly/uF0P50MikVA

Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars, especially compared to the preceding 30 years, which included both World Wars. This pattern, sometimes called the long peace, is highly controversial. Does it represent an enduring trend caused by a genuine change in the underlying co...