Doppler Dan's Weather: Providing weather updates for the Carlisle/Boiling Springs area. I (Daniel D'Arcy) was born in Clovis, New Mexico.
Living on the high plains, nestled between the Rocky Mountains and Texas, for 14 years, I experienced severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, blazing hot days, sub-zero days, blizzards, and everything in between. The vast variety of weather I experienced resulted in my fascination for the weather and also the possibility of being able to predict the weather. For the past seven years, my family has calle
d the Carlisle area home, and I graduated from Boiling Springs High School in 2010. Currently, I am enrolled at Florida State University, and in the Fall, I will be entering my junior year. I am pursuing a degree in Meteorology, which I anticipate to receive in April 2014, in addition to the minor in math that I received in April 2012. During summer 2011, I appeared on 4FSU (The Tallahassee affiliate of the Florida Channel), forecasting the weather four times a week, and I will resume forecasting the weather on 4FSU this fall. In 2012, I won the Florida State University Local Forecasting Contest. Using my experience of living in three diverse regions of the United States, as well as what I have learned through my studies, I hope to use this website to further practice forecasting the weather, as well as keeping you informed of the weather around you.
Tropical Storm Bill has strengthened with maximum sustained winds of 60MPH now. The storm is located 30 miles southeast of Port Oconnor, Texas and moving to the northwest at 13MPH.
Landfall is expected between 9am and 9:30am
Flash flood watches are in effect for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, and Illinois
Tropical Storm Bill has formed 155 miles SE of Galveston with maximum winds of 50MPH! Tropical storm force winds extend 160 miles from the center of the storm. The storm is moving northwest at 12MPH. Landfall is expected early Tuesday morning on the Texas Gulf Coast, but the worst rain is expected after landfall and on Wednesday.
WARNINGS
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay extending 250 miles north to High Island. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Houston, Corpus Christi, and Galveston. A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours in areas within the warning.
IMPACTS
Rain: Eastern Texas and Eastern Oklahoma: 4-8 inches
Western Louisiana and Arkansas: 2-4 inches
More than 12 inches is possible in some parts of eastern TX
Storm Surge: Texas Coast: 2-4 feet
Western Louisiana Coast: 1-2 feet
EVACUATIONS
Voluntary evacuations are underway for more than 2,000 on Boilvar Pensinsula.
Recent heavy rainfall during the Memorial Day weekend, which killed 27 and damaged/destroyed thousands of properties in eastern Texas, has left eastern Texas extra susceptible to flooding since the ground is still saturated.
Austin, Beaumont, College Station, and San Antonio are also among inland cities in a flash flood watch.
Power flashes occurring in Norman, Oklahoma indicative that power lines are being severed by a tornado. Images courtesy of News9 Oklahoma City CBS.
Rare Tornado Emergency issued for Southwest Oklahoma City and Moore, Oklahoma due to an estimated F3 tornado! Additionally, a second tornado has formed in an area that has previously been effected by the F3 tornado. This current tornado is an estimated F2 and has prompted a tornado emergency for Norman, Oklahoma, home of the University of Oklahoma and the Storm Prediction Center. Moore was the site of deadly tornadoes in 1999 that killed 36 and in 2013 that killed 24. The University of Oklahoma and OKC Airport are urging people to seek shelter immediately!
Tornado warning for Carlisle! Possible tornado located about 4 miles west of the borough! Seek shelter now!
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Cumberland County including Carlisle.
Severe thunderstorms are racing across the midstate at 60MPH. These storms have a long history of winds in excess of 70MPH while toppling trees and ripping roofs off of houses throughout western Pennsylvania. The storms are anticipated to arrive around 6:30pm.
Hurricane Arthur made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC at 11:15pm. It is the first category 2 hurricane since Hurricane Ike in 2008 to make landfall in the United States.
Hurricane Arthur is now a category 2 hurricane with max winds of 100 MPH. It is now about 40 miles south of Beaufort, NC where landfall is forecasted.
Hurricane Arthur is expected to make landfall around 1am near Morehead City and Beaufort, North Carolina as a category 2 hurricane. If this forecast holds true, it will be the first category 2 hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Ike in 2008.it will also be the first known hurricane to make landfall on the fourth of July and the earliest ever landfalling NC hurricane. The threat of Arthur has cancelled Fourth of July celebrations from the North Carolina/South Carolina border all the way up to Portland, Maine.
Currently, Hurricane Arthur has sustained winds of 90MPH. Hurricane force winds extend 35MPH from the center of the storm and tropical storm force winds out to 150MPH from the center.
Hardest hit areas in and around the site of landfall are expected to experience
Wind: Around 100MPH
Storm Surge: 3-5 feet
Rain: 4-6 inches, and some areas seeing more than 8 inches
Isolated tornadoes and high surf will also occur.
Live view of Holden Beach, NC, currently about 55 miles west of Hurricane Arthur
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc
EarthCam and affiliate, Alan Holden Vacations, deliver stunning views of Holden Beach in North Carolina. With over 8 miles of pristine beaches, this location has plenty to offer -- including warm waters, boating, and fishing. The island also serves as a habitat for sea turtles.
Plenty of weather of interest today between a severe weather threat for central Pennsylvania and the possibility of the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Isaac in August 2012 (Sandy had lost its tropical characteristics when it made landfall).
A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for the western half of Cumberland County including Shippensburg. The yellow boxes indicate where the National Weather Service has issued severe thunderstorm warnings. The storm is only moving 30 MPH, which means it won't move into the Carlisle area until around 4:30pm or 5pm. The storms are packing winds in excess of 60MPH and torrential downpours, up to 2 inches an hour.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm and a Flash Flood Watch until 12am are also in effect for Cumberland County due to the possibilities of severe thunderstorms and downpours.
FSU MAIN CAMPUS CLOSED ALL DAY!
Waking up in the capital city of Florida this morning and feeling disappointed by the lack of a winter weather appearance outside? This will be changing very quickly!
Weather stations in and around Tallahassee are reporting 31-33 degrees currently. As precipitation moves in, it will fall as rain for the next couple of hours. However, given the temperatures at the surface, rain will begin to freeze upon contact with the surface. All pre-existing wet surfaces will also begin to freeze. Freezing rain and sleet reports are already pouring in from across Leon County.
Around 10am, I do expect the precipitation will change completely to sleet (Frozen ice pellets, halfway between rain and snow) until 3pm. I do think we will see about a four-hour break in precipitation until about 7pm, when I believe the potential exists, for dare I say it, purely snow to fall in Tallahassee for a few hours. In the end, I would predict 0.15 inches of ice and 0.05 inches of snow on top. However, the situation remains as fluid as ever.
While Doppler Dan D'Arcy's Weather is not in the forecast for predicting school closures, it would predict based on this forecast FSU Main Campus will be closed for the duration of the day. The potential also exists for a re-freeze of wet surfaces tonight since temps could dip to the mid-20s, and as such, the National Weather Service has issued a Hard Freeze Warning for Leon County.
At this time, Florida State University Main Campus remains the only school open after 12pm in Tallahassee with all public and private schools, Florida A&M University, and Tallahassee Community College all closed for the entirety of today.
FSU has announced within the last 20 minutes, FSU-Panama City will be closed for all of today, and that FSU execs will meet at 10am to discuss the situation on the main campus.
And the sound of ice pellets has begun to occur outside my window.
Florida State University will close at 10pm tonight and re-open at 12pm tomorrow.
Weather Channel's Jim Cantore reports
"FSU Executives are meeting at 3PM to review the situation and an announcement about FSU's Main Campus will be made by 6PM."
Florida State University School (AKA Florida High, not Florida State University) in Tallahassee is closed.
All flights between Atlanta and Tallahassee have been canceled. All flights from Charlotte to Tallahassee are canceled.
All flights from Tallahassee to Charlotte canceled after 3 today.
Snow is falling in Troy, Al 160 miles northwest of Tallahassee. Sub-freezing temperatures are currently about 120 miles west of Tallahassee.
Schools closing announced so far
-Leon County Schools
-Jackson County Schools
-Liberty County Schools
-North Florida Community College
WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR LEON COUNTY FROM 1PM TUESDAY TO 1PM WEDNESDAY
A winter storm warning means a significant amount of ice is expected.
One tenth of an inch of ice to a quarter inch of ice is expected, with the possibility of a dusting snow to coat over the ice as the storm finishes.
The latest update from National Weather Service has wintry precipitation beginning before sunrise Wednesday. Based on this data, this is the current forecast I anticipate for Tallahassee over the next 70 hours
Now-7pm overcast skies/isolated showers, temps in mid 60s
7pm-1am Scattered showers, temps dropping to mid 50s
TUESDAY
1am-1pm Mostly cloudy, temps rebounding to lower 40s
1pm-7pm Scattered showers, temps staying in lower 40s
7pm-12am Steady rain, temps dropping to mid 30s
WEDNESDAY
12am-4am scattered showers, temps approaching freezing (32)
4am-6am Transition from rain to freezing rain, temps hovering around freezing
6am-1pm Mix of freezing rain and sleet, temps continue to hover around freezing
Based on this forecast, I believe the National Weather Service will extend the Winter Storm Watch to include Leon County. But, a lot can still change over the next 70 hours.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has shot up the odds of a wintry mix in Tallahassee on Wednesday to 70% !
A rare sight. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a Winter Storm Watch, meaning there is potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulation from Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon for portions of southern Georgia, southern Alabama, and portions of the Florida panhandle. While Tallahassee is not included in the advisory at this time (The advisory stretches 45 miles north of the capital city), I do anticipate Leon County will be added within 24 hours.
At this time, models continue to be in disagreement on the form of wintry precipitation for Tallahassee on Wednesday morning. Currently, it appears to be primarily freezing rain. In the National Weather Service discussion they remark the following on this possibility and the amount, "Much of our forecast area could get between 0.05 and 0.25", with isolated higher amounts. In a part of the country with very little infrastructure to handle extreme cold and freezing/frozen precipitation, this could have as much of an impact as a tropical cyclone...perhaps more. Downed power lines & large tree limbs would undoubtedly result in widespread power outages and impassable roads. Those who lack properly winterized shelter and true cold weather clothing risk hypothermia."
The National Weather Service has an excellent graphic of the evolution of winter weather they are forecasting at this time over the next few days
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=tae&gc=2
Look at Tuesday night
Tropical Depression Karen has dissipated and as such no longer exists. Despite this, the remnants of Karen will still bring rain today and tomorrow to Tallahassee.
Karen has been a difficult tropical system to track with the official National Hurricane Center track ranging from a landfall near Mobile, Al to Old Town, Fl (A 350 mile difference). Initially, the NHC also believed the storm would make landfall as a strong tropical storm, or a category 1 hurricane. Now, Karen is a tropical depression, which may not even hold together to make landfall as a tropical system. However, the latest NHC track does put Tallahassee in the center of the cone of uncertainty.
The closest rain bands from Tropical Depression Karen are currently 60 miles to the west of Tallahassee. Between now and Monday, between 1-3 inches of rain is expected in the Tallahassee area. Given that Karen is now a tropical depression, rain and isolated flooding will be the primary concern for Tallahassee.
Once Karen moves out Monday night, cooler and dryer air will move in. This will result in highs in the lower 80s, lows in the lower 60s, and sunny skies for the week ahead.
The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Tallahassee until 11am. The storm is capable of producing winds exceeding 60MPH and the saturated soil could result in trees easily toppling over.
A severe thunderstorm is heading towards Tallahassee. The National Weather Service will likely issue a severe thunderstorm warning for Tallahassee/FSU/Leon county at around the top of the hour and the worst of the storm will likely be around 7:20pm.
Currently the storm is packing winds in excess of 60MPH + and has a history of causing wind damage.
The isolated thunderstorms that affected Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio have now merged into a derecho and is now affecting the Carlisle/Boiling Springs area prompting a severe thunderstorm warning until 7:30am. The derecho will create damaging winds in excess of 60MPH and have near continuous cloud-to-ground lightning
Tens of tornado warnings have been issued in the last hour across Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Many severe thunderstorm warnings have also been issues in these areas as well.
The storms are now beginning to move into the Chicago/Madison area. Since the storms are on the move, ahead of the storm the Storm Prediction Center has gone ahead and issued a tornado watch for portions of western Pennsylvania including Pittsburgh until midnight, meaning conditions are favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Cumberland County is not currently in the watch, but that could change as the night progresses. There is a tornado warning in Ohio, so these storms will soon begin approaching the keystone state.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a high risk for a severe weather outbreak for the first time since April 14, 2012. Unlike 2012, which primarily affected rural Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, today's storms will affect northern Indiana and Illinois, which includes Chicago and Fort Wayne. Indianapolis and Columbus are in a moderate risk for severe weather.
This is the first time since 2004 Chicago has been put in a high risk.
The National Weather Service in Davenport/Quad Cities, Iowa has issued the following bulletin
"HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 218... WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A RARE HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AT 1250 PM CDT... AREA RADARS INDICATED THERE WERE NO THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER IOWA OR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL... AND TORNADOES. SEVERE SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A TORNADO WATCH IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT IMMINENT... THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION AND YOU SHOULD MAKE PLANS FOR WHERE YOU WILL TAKE SHELTER IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED."
The ingredients in the atmosphere have the potential to result in the formation of a major derecho. A derecho is a massive windstorm with a thunderstorm that can stretch hundreds of miles. Last summer, a derecho occurred when DC lost power for days and Netflix was knocked offline.
Here is a graphic from the NWS office in Chicago for the threats expected.
Following the last National Hurricane Center update, the National Weather Service in Tallahassee has decided to scale back on the Tropical Storm Warning. As a result, Tallahassee/Leon County are no longer in a tropical storm warning. However heavy rain is expected to continue throughout the day still. Sustained winds should still remain in the 20s with gusts into the 30s.
Heavy winds are shutting down the Sunshine Skyway Bridge connecting Tampa Bay to St. Petersburg.
And this is the scene on Siesta Key along the Florida Barrier Island.
Tropical Storm Andrea continues to have maximum sustained winds of 60MPH. Andrea is located 110 miles west of Tampa and 110 miles south of Apalachicola and moving to the northeast at 15MPH. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) track now has Andrea making landfall halfway between Perry and Gainesville, near Cross City at around 5pm tonight.
With their latest advisory, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now saying storm surge could reach five feet between Apalachicola and Tampa. In Apalachicola bay, the water is already 1 foot above normal.
A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for much of Florida, excluding the panhandle, and does not include Tallahassee. More than 20 tornado warnings have been issued due to Andrea.
Portions of Franklin County, including Carrabelle, have already seen more than five inches of rain in the last few hours.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee is now anticipating winds of 35MPH-45MPH in and around the capital city, with gusts in the 50s.
The Florida Emergency Operation Center has been activated in advance of the storm.
And the storm is also resulting in some closings. North Florida Community College is closing at 12pm, Franklin County schools are closing at 11am, and Wakulla County schools are closing at 1pm.
The next complete update from the NHC will be at 5pm, around the time of landfall.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR ALL OF LEON COUNTY INCLUDING TALLAHASSEE
A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, but in this case are expected this afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee predicts a 40% chance of tropical storm conditions in and around Tallahassee. Winds this afternoon and evening will primarily be in the 30 to 40MPH range, with gusts around 50MPH.
Tropical Storm Andrea has strengthened overnight and now has maximum sustained winds of 60MPH. The storm is located 220 miles west of Tampa and 195 miles south of Apalachicola, moving to the north/north-east at 13MPH. The latest National Hurricane Center track has Tropical Storm Andrea making landfall near Perry, Fl, about 50 miles southeast of Tallahassee (Which is 80 miles northwest of the forecast from yesterday). The constant inundation of rainfall from the outer rain bands will begin at around 9am, so we are currently in our last dry slot for many hours.
Regardless of landfall, Tallahassee will see heavy rains (3-5 inches). The landfall plays a key in terms of tornadoes though, as east of the landfall will see the greatest risk of a tornado.
The TROPICAL STORM WATCH from Flagler Beach, Fl to Surf City, NC has now been replaced with a TROPICAL STORM WARNING from Flagler Beach, Fl to Cape Charles Light, VA, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours.
The next complete National Hurricane Center advisory will be at 11am.
The Hurricane Season began on June 1 and today we have our first named storm in the Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Andrea has formed 310 miles southwest of Tampa/320 miles south of Apalachicola with maximum sustained winds of 40MPH and moving to the north at 3MPH. Tropical Storm force winds extend 140 miles from the center, mostly to the south and east of the center.
As a result, a TROPICAL STORM WARNING has been issued along the Florida gulf coast from Boca Grande to Ochlocknee River, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours in the warned area.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH has been issued from Flagler Beach, Fl to Surf City, NC along the Atlantic coast, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours in the watched area.
Tropical Storm Andrea is forecast to pick up speed and make landfall near Cross City, Fl tomorrow during the second half of the day as a tropical storm with winds of about 45MPH.
EFFECTS/HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA
STORM SURGE
2-4 feet between Tampa and Apalachicola along the Gulf
1-2 feet south of Tampa along the Gulf
RAINFALL
3-6 inches over much of Florida, particularly the eastern panhandle, and also southeastern Georgia.
2-4 inches over the eastern portions of the Carolinas.
TORNADOES
There is an isolated risk for tornadoes in Florida beginning late tonight and continuing into tomorrow.
TALLAHASSEE IMPACTS
FLASH FLOOD WATCH, meaning flash flooding could develop, as 3-5 inches of rain is anticipated to fall mostly on Thursday and some on Friday.
Winds will be breezy and isolated threat of tornadoes will be there.
Continuous updates on Doppler Dan's Weather as conditions warrant, with the next National Hurricane Center update at 8pm.
The NBC affiliate reports at least 2 have been killed near Oklahoma City when the car they were in overturned.
Many power flashes have occurred in Norman. OKC EMS are reporting there are many injuries.
Oklahoma is not the only location with tornadoes, a tornado warning currently includes Joplin and another tornado warning includes the northern suburbs of St. Louis and their airport.
POWER FLASHES REPORTED IN MOORE! Power flashes reported on Tinkerman Air Force Base as well.
Widespread flash flooding now occurring throughout OKC metro area.
Tennis ball size hail has occurred inside the metro.
Norman now under the ground
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