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Investing, Asset Allocation, Economics & The Search For The Bottom Line
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16/11/2024

Book Bits: 16 November 2024

Book Bits: 16 November 2024 ● False Prophets of Economics Imperialism: The Limits of Mathematical Market Models Matthew Watson Summary via publisher (Agenda publishing/Columbia U. Press) This book studies the methodological revolution that has resulted in economists’ mathematical market models b...

15/11/2024

The Trump Factor Takes A Toll On Foreign Stocks

The Trump Factor Takes A Toll On Foreign Stocks The election victory has fueled a strong rally in US equities, but Donald Trump’s comeback is seen as a new risk factor elsewhere as Washington prepares to pivot to new edition of an “America First” policy. There’s plenty of uncertainty about t...

14/11/2024

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 14 November 2024

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 14 November 2024 The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rose in October relative to a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com. The increase marks the first time since April that the premium increased. The current...

13/11/2024

Rising Treasury Yields Raise Doubts About Another Fed Rate Cut

Rising Treasury Yields Raise Doubts About Another Fed Rate Cut Fed funds futures are still leaning into expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce its target rate next by a quarter point, but the related confidence of the forecast is slipping. The current implied probability for another rate....

12/11/2024

Communications, Financials Take Lead As Top Sector Performers

Communications, Financials Take Lead As Top Sector Performers Defensives are out, animal spirits are in… again. Or so the latest rotation among US equity sectors suggests, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Nov. 11). The recent rush into utilities stocks (XLU) has reversed in recent ...

11/11/2024

Will Reflation End The US Bond Market’s Recovery?

Will Reflation End The US Bond Market’s Recovery? In mid-September, the bond market looked set to coast to a second year of recovery after a bruising run of back-to-back losses in 2021 and 2023. Since then, the market has lost altitude. Although a modest year-to-date gain is holding for the moment...

09/11/2024

Book Bits: 9 November 2024

Book Bits: 9 November 2024 ● Is the Chinese Economy a Miracle or a Bubble? Lawrence J. Lau Summary via publisher (The Chinese University of Hong Kong Press) Since China undertook economic reform and opened its economy to the world in the late 1970s, its economy has been growing at an average annua...

08/11/2024

Research Review | 7 November 2024 | Market Analytics

Research Review | 7 November 2024 | Market Analytics Climate Risk and Predictability of Global Stock Market Volatility Mingtao Zhou and Yong Ma (Hunan University) March 2024 Our study investigates the informative role of climate risk in improving the predictability of global stock market volatility....

07/11/2024

Risk-On Sentiment For US Stocks Accelerates

Risk-On Sentiment For US Stocks Accelerates The appetite for US equity risk has wobbled in recent months, but on the first trading day after Trump’s election victory the bullish signaling revived on several fronts, based on numerous sets of ETF pairs through Wednesday’s close (Nov. 6). The main ...

06/11/2024

How Will Trump’s Election Win Change The Macro Outlook?

How Will Trump’s Election Win Change The Macro Outlook? Elections have consequences and so Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th president will surely change the calculus. The policy differences between the Republican president-elect and the Biden administration are substantial on...

05/11/2024

What’s Driving Gold? Central Banks And Hedging Are Key Factors

What’s Driving Gold? Central Banks And Hedging Are Key Factors Prior to the last several years, modeling the gold market was relatively straight forward. But a lot has changed in recent history, and so has the mix of factors that are front and center in gold’s price trend. In past decades a simp...

04/11/2024

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 04 November 2024

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 04 November 2024 The long-run performance outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in October. Today’s revised forecast marks the first higher estimate in the past four months for GMI, an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asse...

02/11/2024

Book Bits: 2 November 2024

Book Bits: 2 November 2024 ● How to Move Up When the Only Way is Down: Lessons from Artificial Intelligence for Overcoming Your Local Maximum Judah Taub Interview with author via CTech Q: What are some of the ways that humans can learn from AI in these instances where humans might metaphorically ....

01/11/2024

Major Asset Classes | October 2024 | Performance Review

Major Asset Classes | October 2024 | Performance Review Global markets suffered a broad-based downturn in October. For the first time since April, a majority of the major asset classes posted monthly losses, based on a set of ETF proxies. The upside outliers: cash and commodities. Foreign real estat...

31/10/2024

Consumer Spending Drives Solid US Economic Growth In Q3

Consumer Spending Drives Solid US Economic Growth In Q3 What a long, strange trip it’s been for some analysts since the summer of recession forecasts turned into yesterday’s robust 2.8% rise in third-quarter GDP. A key driver of Q3’s advance: higher consumer spending, which accounts for roughl...

29/10/2024

Is The Prospect For Another Fed Rate Cut Fading?

Is The Prospect For Another Fed Rate Cut Fading? The backup in Treasury yields may be a warning sign that the odds are slipping that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the next policy meeting on Nov. 7. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield closed at 4.15% on Monday (Oct. 28), the high...

28/10/2024

Busy Week Of Economic Reports Scheduled Ahead Of The Election

Busy Week Of Economic Reports Scheduled Ahead Of The Election The last full week ahead of the US election is jam-packed with key economic reports. As a result, the potential for surprises that could sway voters is in high gear in the days to come. Here’s a quick rundown of the key releases this we...

23/10/2024

Strong US Growth Still Expected For Next Week’s Q3 GDP Report

Strong US Growth Still Expected For Next Week’s Q3 GDP Report Will the two hurricanes that hit the US Southeast region recently weigh on the upcoming third-quarter GDP data? Probably, although for the moment the impact is expected to be minimal, based on set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectato...

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