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Investing, Asset Allocation, Economics & The Search For The Bottom Line

21/01/2025

Will Trump’s Tariffs Help Or Hurt The Effort To Tame Inflation?

Will Trump’s Tariffs Help Or Hurt The Effort To Tame Inflation? On his first day as president, Donald Trump announced bold plans to reshape economic policy. His ideas for revising US priorities are as brash and audacious as they are controversial and contested in some quarters. Imposing new tariff...

20/01/2025

US Economy Humming As Trump Returns To White House Today

US Economy Humming As Trump Returns To White House Today Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States at 12 noon eastern. When he takes the oath office for a second time at least one thing will be clear: He will enter the White House with an economy that’s in dramatical...

18/01/2025

Book Bits: 18 January 2025:

Book Bits: 18 January 2025 ● The Data Economy: Tools and Applications Isaac Baley and Laura L. Veldkamp Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press) The most valuable firms in the global economy are valued largely for their data. Amazon, Apple, Google, and others have proven the competitive advantag...

17/01/2025

Research Review | 17 January 2025 | Risk Premia:

Research Review | 17 January 2025 | Risk Premia An Investigation into the Causes of Stock Market Return Deviations from Real Earnings Yields Austin Murphy (Oakland University), et al. December 2024 This research demonstrates that the simple difference between the current earnings yield on the S&P500...

16/01/2025

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 16 January 2025

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 16 January 2025 The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield eased in December after rising for two straight months. The analysis uses a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com. Despite the downshift, the market contin...

15/01/2025

Commodities Are The Upside Outlier So Far This Year

Commodities Are The Upside Outlier So Far This Year January is shaping up to be a rough month for the major asset classes, with one exception: commodities. Using a set of ETF proxies, a broad measure of commodities is posting a solid gain year to date. In sharp relief, the rest of the field is mostl...

14/01/2025

US Q4 GDP On Track To Post 2%-Plus Growth

US Q4 GDP On Track To Post 2%-Plus Growth The US economy is still expected to post a slower growth rate in the upcoming fourth-quarter GDP report. But in a sign of confidence that a respectable expansion persists, the projected rate of expansion picked up in today’s nowcast vs. the previous estima...

13/01/2025

2024 Ends With Resilient US Payrolls Data

2024 Ends With Resilient US Payrolls Data The US economy added more jobs than expected in December, providing a fresh dose of optimism that the labor market will remain strong for the near term. There’s lots of uncertainty ahead as Trump 2.0 is set to get underway, but it’s fair to say that the ...

11/01/2025

Book Bits: 11 January 2025

Book Bits: 11 January 2025 ● The Corporation in the Twenty-First Century: Why (Almost) Everything We Are Told About Business Is Wrong John Kay Review via Financial Times When capital-intensive plant and machinery were the means of production, the capitalist elite had permanent power over the worke...

10/01/2025

Introducing The US 5-Year Yield Opportunity Index

Introducing The US 5-Year Yield Opportunity Index Inflation risk is topical again, as I’ve been discussing this week. As a result, the bond market is demanding a higher yield premium to compensate for the possibility that inflation will be higher than recent expected. The question for investors: D...

09/01/2025

Monitoring US Reflation Risk In Five Charts

Monitoring US Reflation Risk In Five Charts Inflation is relatively low compared with the post-pandemic surge, when the year-over-year change for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked at 9.0% in June 2022. The current 2.7% pace through through this past November is tame by comparison. The concern is...

08/01/2025

Are Treasury Yields Flashing A Warning Sign For Inflation?

Are Treasury Yields Flashing A Warning Sign For Inflation? The risk of reflation has been bubbling for several months and yesterday’s economic news on prices in the services sector fueled new concerns. The bond market is paying attention, or so the renewed rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield sug...

07/01/2025

US Q4 GDP Growth Still On Track To Slow After Strong Q3 Rise

US Q4 GDP Growth Still On Track To Slow After Strong Q3 Rise US economic activity looks set to post softer growth in the government’s upcoming fourth-quarter GDP report. Based on the median nowcast from several sources, output appears set to downshift to the slowest increase since 2024’s first q...

06/01/2025

Risk-On Sentiment Prevails For 2025’s Debut, Fueled By US Stocks

Risk-On Sentiment Prevails For 2025’s Debut, Fueled By US Stocks There are many reasons to question a bullish outlook at the start of the year, but the gravity-defying trend remains intact overall, based on a set of ETF pairs that track global asset allocation strategies through Friday’s close (...

04/01/2025

Book Bits: 04 January 2025:

Book Bits: 04 January 2025 ● Prop Trading Secrets: How Successful Traders are Living off the Markets Kathy Lien and Etienne Crete Summary via publisher (Wiley) In Prop Trading Secrets of Successful Funded Traders: How Individual Traders are using Proprietary Trading to Achieve Financial Freedom, K...

03/01/2025

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 03 January 2025

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 03 January 2025 The expected return over the long run for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady in December vs. the previous month. The unchanged forecast, based on three models defined below, reflects a second month with the highest return outlook i...

02/01/2025

Major Asset Classes | December 2024 | Performance Review:

Major Asset Classes | December 2024 | Performance Review US equities led global markets by a wide margin in 2024, a year of mixed results overall for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs. For a second year running, American shares (VTI) were the upside outlier last year, posting a 23.8% t...

23/12/2024

US Stocks Set To Top Asset Class Returns For 2024

US Stocks Set To Top Asset Class Returns For 2024 American shares are poised for another year of leading global markets by a hefty margin, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Dec. 20). Echoing results in 2023, US stocks in 2024 will likely take the performance crown with a red-hot gain ...

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