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The Capital Spectator Investing, Asset Allocation, Economics & The Search For The Bottom Line

01/03/2025

Book Bits: 1 March 2025

Book Bits: 1 March 2025 ● Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare Edward Fishman Review via The Wall Street Journal In “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,” Edward Fishman makes clear why this banker so badly underestimated America’s financial power...

28/02/2025

Economic Slowdown Concerns Top Inflation Worries For Bonds

Economic Slowdown Concerns Top Inflation Worries For Bonds Sticky inflation risk is still a threat for the bond market, but concern that the US economy is slowing has become the main factor driving Treasury yields lower recently. The US 10-year yield steadied in yesterday’s trading (Feb. 27), but ...

27/02/2025

US Sector Leadership Shifts, Favoring Healthcare Stocks

US Sector Leadership Shifts, Favoring Healthcare Stocks As markets try to look through the blizzard of policy changes flowing out of Washington, the crowd has shifted its preferences considerably in recent weeks based on a sector lens. Using a set of ETFs as proxies, healthcare is now the leading se...

26/02/2025

Are Markets Rethinking The Prospects For Trump 2.0?

Are Markets Rethinking The Prospects For Trump 2.0? Recent headlines appear to have shaken investor sentiment. It’s premature to read too much into a few days of weaker-than-expected survey numbers. More importantly, the latest data indicate that the economy is still growing, businesses continue t...

25/02/2025

Politics And Policy Clouds Path Ahead For Fed

Politics And Policy Clouds Path Ahead For Fed The central bank’s job is never easier, but in the current climate it’s unusually tricky. In addition to the usual challenges that complicate real-time monetary-policy decisions, the Federal Reserve must weigh the potential economic implications from...

24/02/2025

Foreign Stocks, Commodities Lead Major Asset Classes This Year

Foreign Stocks, Commodities Lead Major Asset Classes This Year The year so far is shaping up to be quite different from 2024 in terms of leaders and laggards for the major asset classes. Global equities ex-US are the leaders, along with a broad measure of commodities, based on a set of ETFs through....

22/02/2025

Book Bits: 22 February 2025

Book Bits: 22 February 2025 ● Why Nothing Works: Who Killed Progress―and How to Bring It Back Marc J. Dunkelman Interview with author via NPR Q: When New York City built its subway system in the first part of the 1900s, it took about three years to build the first subway line through Manhattan. ...

21/02/2025

Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Treasury Yields Remain Elevated

Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Treasury Yields Remain Elevated At a time of increased uncertainty about inflation, the relatively elevated real yields available in inflation-indexed Treasuries offer a partial antidote of certainty for anxious investors. Using the 5- and 10-year yields for Treasury Inflat...

20/02/2025

Despite Inflation Risk, Bond Market Holds On To Gains In 2025

Despite Inflation Risk, Bond Market Holds On To Gains In 2025 Inflation concerns continue to lurk, but the US bond market is holding on to its rally so far this year, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (Feb. 19). The investment-grade benchmark for US fixed-income securities (BND) is ...

19/02/2025

Foreign Stocks Lead Major Asset Classes In 2025:

Foreign Stocks Lead Major Asset Classes In 2025 After two straight years of performance dominance by US equities, foreign stocks in developed markets are leading the major asset classes by a wide margin so far in 2025, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Feb. 18). It’s anyone’s gue...

18/02/2025

Momentum Leaves Other Equity Factors In The Dust So Far In 2025

Momentum Leaves Other Equity Factors In The Dust So Far In 2025 The momentum factor is crushing the competition year to date, based on a set of ETF proxies through Friday’s close (Feb. 14). After a strong run last year, momentum is roaring higher in 2025 in relative and absolute terms. The iShares...

17/02/2025

Moderate, Steady Growth Expected For US Q1 GDP

Moderate, Steady Growth Expected For US Q1 GDP US economic activity is on track to maintain a moderate growth rate in 2025’s first quarter, according to the median for several nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Today’s initial Q1 estimate projects that the 2%-plus pace reported for Q4 by...

15/02/2025

Book Bits: 15 February 2025:

Book Bits: 15 February 2025 ● Rethinking Investing: A Very Short Guide to Very Long-Term Investing Charles D. Ellis Summary via publisher (Wiley) In just 10 short, accessible, and inviting chapters, Rethinking Investing: A Very Short Book on Very Long-Term Investing presents straightforward steps ...

14/02/2025

Research Review | 14 FEB 2025 | Rebalancing and Asset Allocation

Research Review | 14 FEB 2025 | Rebalancing and Asset Allocation The Unintended Consequences of Rebalancing Campbell R. Harvey (Duke University), et al. January 2025 Institutional investors engage in trillions of dollars of regular portfolio rebalancing, often based on calendar schedules or deviatio...

13/02/2025

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 13 February 2025

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 13 February 2025 The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rebounded sharply in January, rising to its highest level in nine months, based on a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com. Yesterday’s hotter-than-ex...

12/02/2025

Desperately Seeking Yield: 12 February 2025

Desperately Seeking Yield: 12 February 2025 Yields on most assets around the world have edged higher this year. The increase reflects a range of concerns, including sticky inflation risk and greater uncertainty for global trade flows. The crowd, in other words, is demanding a higher yield premium th...

11/02/2025

US Stock Market Is Middling Performer Amid Global Equities Rally

US Stock Market Is Middling Performer Amid Global Equities Rally After two straight calendar years of red-hot performance, American shares are experiencing a run of muted results on the global stage. All the major slices of world stock markets are posting gains so far in 2025, but a notable shift fr...

10/02/2025

Choose Your Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Carefully

Choose Your Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Carefully Morningstar last week advised that tactical asset allocation funds “failed—again.” That sounds ominous for this class of strategies, but a closer review suggests it’s misguided to pull the plug on the on idea that dynamically adjusting...

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