28/10/2022
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 9
Tropical Storm (NALGAE)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 28 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today
โPAENGโ ACCELERATES WEST NORTHWESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH
Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Storm โPAENGโ was estimated based on all available data at 220 km East Northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 305 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar (12.1ยฐN, 127.4ยฐE)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 90 km/h, and central pressure of
992 hPa
Present Movement: West northwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to
480 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, the central and southern portions of Quezon (Atimonan, Pagbilao, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Lopez, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Buenavista, Mulanay, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco), and Marinduque
Visayas:
Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, the northeastern portion of Leyte (Tacloban City, Babatngon, San Miguel, Barugo), and Biliran
TCWS No. 1:
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
Metro Manila, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, the southeastern portion of Tarlac (Concepcion, La Paz), the central and southern portions of Nueva Ecija (City of Gapan, San Leonardo, Santo Domingo, Rizal, San Isidro, Laur, Zaragoza, Llanera, Aliaga, Palayan City, Gabaldon, General Mamerto Natividad, Cabanatuan City, Quezon, San Antonio, General Tinio, Santa Rosa, Pe, Jaen, Licab, B**gabon, Cabiao, Talavera), the southern portion of Aurora (Dingalan, San Luis, Maria Aurora, Baler), Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, the rest of Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, and Calamian Islands
Visayas:
The rest of Leyte, Southern Leyte, the northern and central portions of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin, San Remigio, Tabogon, City of Bogo, Borbon, Tabuelan, Sogod, Catmon, Tuburan, Carmen, Danao City, Asturias, Balamban, Compostela, Liloan, Cebu City, Mandaue City, Consolacion, Toledo City, City of Talisay, City of Naga, Pinamungahan, Minglanilla, Aloguinsan, San Fernando, City of Carcar, Barili, Sibonga, Dumanjug, Argao, Alcantara, Moalboal, Ronda, Badian, Dalaguete, Lapu-Lapu City, Cordova) including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, Bohol, the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental (Sagay City, Cadiz City, City of Escalante, Manapla, Enrique B. Magalona, City of Victorias, Silay City, City of Talisay, Murcia, Bacolod City, Bago City, Pulupandan, Valladolid, La Carlota City, La Castellana, San Enrique, Pontevedra, Hinigaran, Moises Padilla, Isabela, San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto, Calatrava, Toboso, Binalbagan, City of Himamaylan), the northern portion of Negros Oriental (City of Guihulngan, Vallehermoso, Canlaon City, La Libertad, Jimalalud, Tayasan), Guimaras, Aklan, the northern and central portions of Antique (Libertad, Pandan, Sebaste, Culasi, Tibiao, Barbaza, Laua-An, Bugasong, Valderrama, Patnongon, San Remigio, Caluya Islands), Capiz, and the northern and central portions of Iloilo (Calinog, New Lucena, Maasin, Estancia, Batad, Oton, Concepcion, Pavia, Duelas, Balasan, Barotac Nuevo, Ajuy, Iloilo City, Anilao, San Dionisio, San Miguel, Mina, Santa Barbara, Barotac Viejo, Leganes, Carles, Di**le, Zarraga, Bingawan, Cabatuan, Alimodian, Dumangas, San Rafael, San Enrique, Badiangan, Banate, City of Passi, Pototan, Lambunao, Lemery, Sara, Janiuay, Leon, Tigbauan, Tubungan, Igbaras, Guimbal)
Mindanao:
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (Carrascal, Cantilan, Madrid, Carmen, Lanuza, Cortes, City of Tandag, Bayabas, Tago, Cagwait) and the northern portion of Agusan del Norte (Kitcharao, Jabonga, Santiago)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
โข Today through tomorrow early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Quezon, MIMAROPA, Caraga, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Visayas. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Metro Manila, Cagayan Valley, Aurora, and the rest of CALABARZON and Mindanao.
โข Tomorrow morning through Sunday morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Aurora, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Metro Manila, mainland Cagayan, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
โข Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
โข Heavy rain areas may be updated in the succeeding bulletins should there be significant shifts in the track and intensity forecast of PAENG.
Severe Winds
โข Winds may reach gale-force strength during the passage of PAENG within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted. Strong winds may be experienced within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 is hoisted throughout the entire passage of PAENG.
โข Per latest track and intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will likely be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 3 in anticipation of storm-force conditions associated with PAENG.
โข The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Provinces, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, the eastern portions of Isabela, and the northern portion of Apayao.
Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of the eastern portion of Aurora, the eastern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Albay, Camarines Norte, and the northern and eastern portions of Camarines Sur. For more information refer to Storm Surge Watch #4 issued at 8:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon, a marine gale warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #10 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
โข Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to continue moving west northwestward through Sunday. On the forecast track, this tropical cyclone may make landfall over Catanduanes by tomorrow early morning. Afterwards, it will traverse the northern portion of Camarines Sur, then the eastern portion of Camarines Norte. By Sunday morning, the center of PAENG may make another landfall over the east coast of Quezon (including Polillo Islands) or Aurora.
โข PAENG is forecast to further intensify while moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category within 24 hours. Due to a landfall scenario over Bicol Region, it is less likely to reach typhoon category and there is an increasing likelihood that PAENG may remain a severe tropical storm.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 2:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: bit.ly/3RQj55J
