Sxm Weather Forecast

22/04/2024

Simply dust alert ⚠️

06/02/2024

Small Craft Advisory now in effect...

05/02/2024

Special weather alert.

12/11/2023

29/10/2023

12PM Weather Update

29/10/2023

This morning Weather Forecast

22/10/2023

Night falls on Hurricane Tammy

21/10/2023

Essential services
Approaching Hurricane Tammy

21/10/2023

BULLETIN
Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023
..TAMMY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF DOMINICA.....HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 60.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 60.4 West. Tammy is now moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy
will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands through
early Sunday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands
by Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next few
days, but Tammy is expected to remain a hurricane while it passes
near or over the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the hurricane
warning area later this morning and spread northward across the
Leeward Islands today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas today and tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas
today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible on
Martinique today and the British Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Portions of the Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts
of 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches.

These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along
with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

21/10/2023

Tropical weather update Sat 21st Oct 2023

20/10/2023

Hurricane Tammy gets stronger.

20/10/2023

Hurricane Tammy gets stronger.

20/10/2023

Hurricane Tammy coming out tonight

20/10/2023

TAMMY BECOMES A HURRICANE

Hurricane Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1000 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023
..TAMMY BECOMES A HURRICANE...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that Tammy has become a hurricane. The maximum winds are estimated
to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The initial and forecast
intensities will be updated with the next advisory that will be
issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 58.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

04/10/2023

Hurricane supplies kit.

04/10/2023

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE has slowed down north of the St.Thomas .

This storm has been very difficult to forecast.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
..PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.....HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 65.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe, as
Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast later today, followed by a faster motion
toward the north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Philippe will continue to move away from Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands today. Philippe will then approach Bermuda
Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
but some gradual intensification could occur after that time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through today:

The United States & British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with
maximum amounts to 12 inches.

Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall is likely to result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
the Virgin Islands through early today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another couple of days. Swells are expected to
reach Bermuda by late Thursday. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

04/10/2023

Tropical weather update Wed 4th October 2023

03/10/2023

Situation of Tuesday October 3, 2023

There is 1 cyclone in progress: storm .

The cumulative number of storm days is 84, making 2023 the 5th highest number of days to date October 3 after: 1933, 1995, 2005 and 2004 respectively.

However, 2020 is expected to surpass 2023 by October 5.

Here is the list of first names for 2023:

SEAN
Tammy
Vince
WHITNEY

The next first name on the list is a 4-letter masculine name, of Scottish origin, which will be used for the 2nd time after 2011. This first name replaced STAN during the 2005 season.

03/10/2023

Urgent Announcement 📢 in Sxm

27/09/2023

Pour la prévision de 20 heures locales, la zone d'investigation continue de s'organiser lentement mais sûrement compte tenu de sa taille.
Un centre estimé s'est reformé vers le sud-ouest vers le 10°N et 40°O et une sonde ASCAT devrait atteindre la perturbation ce soir et analyser la structure.

Une évolution cyclonique est envisageable en seconde partie de nuit (02-05 heures locales) au plus tôt avec une trajectoire orientée vers l'ouest-nord-ouest à 20 km/h environ.

26/09/2023

Prévision climatique bi-hebdomadaire de la NOAA du mercredi 04 au mardi 17 octobre 2023.

Le GFS (NOAA) commence à montrer une déclinaison de l'activité cyclonique à partir de la semaine prochaine sur le bassin Atlantique.

19/09/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form east of
the Florida peninsula late this week. This system could acquire
some subtropical characteristics this weekend while it moves
generally northward. Regardless of subtropical development, this
low could bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf conditions to
portions of the coastal Carolinas into the coastal Mid-Atlantic
states this weekend. Please see products from your local National
Weather Service office for more details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

15/09/2023

Here is a view of the Eastern Altantic.

You can see invest 97 L between latitude 10°N and 15°N
And longitude 40°W and 45°W.

Then there a tropical wave off the coast of Africa between latitude 5°N and 10°N and longitude 15 °W to 20°W

I will keep a close eye 👁‍🗨 on the progress of all systems.

www.tropicaltibits.com

15/09/2023

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lee, located a couple of hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda,
and on Hurricane Margot, located over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in
association with a broad low pressure area located about midway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression within the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by the middle part of next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter as it continues moving westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin

13/09/2023

Trajectoires prévues des 2 cyclones en cours : l'ouragan majeur de catégorie 3 et l'ouragan de catégorie 1 .

13/09/2023

Prévision climatique bi-hebdomadaire de la NOAA du mercredi 20 septembre au mardi 3 octobre 2023.

Le GFS (NOAA) continue de montrer une forte activité cette semaine puis les 2 prochaines semaines sur le bassin Atlantique. Le positionnement de la phase favorable de l'OMJ, sur la partie orientale de l'Afrique qui a tendance de stagner et la climatologie