23/09/2014
EBOLA: PLEASE READ AND FOLLOW THE LINKS FOR MORE COMPLETE INFO. All sources are pretty much reliable from these particular publications.
It's time to focus people in a rational way on the biggest threat we have faced as a species, aside from nuclear war, in modern times. Ebola is not far away. It is a few hours away, potentially being brought to you by someone who was well-meaning but lethally ill-informed. or, worse, by some spoiled but moneyed person trying to reach better care.
Ebola is potentially the "zombie apocalypse" scenario in some ways. It is now projected to hit 1.4 million cases. The end of its spread is NOT in sight, and the US's CDCP is revising estimates based on criteria they did not have last week. WHO predictions trails these by about 5% in the mid-term, but catch up quickly.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/health/ebola-cases-could-reach-14-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?_r=0
We need to establish quarantine centers for volunteers and arrivals of other sorts from within a radius of the infection zones. Playing heart strings to keep airfares flowing and downplaying risks will cause a potentially extinction-level pandemic event. This is not the flu. This bleed-your-eyes-out plague is pretty much fatal
The initial outbreak was running at about 52% lethality but is now climbing, as primary stocks of care supplies dwindle and health care workers are killed or overburdened. It stands at the moment in affected regions at 70%:
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/ebola-death-rate-70-percent-who-says-dire-new-forecast-n209226
At this time in West Africa, people are trying to flee and are thought to be bringing the infection to new (including more urban) areas. They are trying to hide infected relatives as they seek care that the region just does not have the money or governmental will to provide. It is assumed that under-reporting includes new infections not identified as Ebola in other countries.
The WHO and CDC have told the commercial airlines to treat all body fluids as contaminated. They have not asked for flights to be curtailed. Korean Air has ceased some African flights on its own.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2764548/Treat-body-fluid-infectious-CDC-issues-alarming-new-Ebola-warning-crews-U-S-airlines.html
Much has been made of the treatment success with various drugs. But EVERYTHING is in short supply and the production for curative and preventative medicine is largely not there, or is devoted to more profitable products. What pharmaceutical resources we have will be exhausted in Africa if indeed Ebola spreads.Further, blood serum treatment for Ebola can make it worse:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkroll/2014/09/05/who-ebola-drug-panel-use-survivor-serum-to-treat-ebola-victims/
The West is mobilizing some resources but even if they went up overnight, they would be far too small to have a major impact and would be difficult to relocate once built. So far, China, which has economically dug into Africa deeply in recent years, has been relatively less giving, considering it has 20,000 people in affected areas. Those people could be evacuated, but that presents new issues for potential spread, as well:
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-16/africa-s-ebola-should-be-china-s-problem
There's the problem. The unfortunate truth is that once the virus hits somewhere else in the world, our ability to stop it dies as soon as a plane lands with some rich idiots fleeing who brought along a Typhoid Mary with more money than ethics. The places affected by this are run by people like that. It is notable that China has developed its own drug, for home use only, for Army use only:
http://english.cntv.cn/2014/08/31/VIDE1409430958420142.shtml
The practical steps that we can take are to write and encourage, even demand, action by the leaders we have in order to control the outbreak. We should demand dedicated, isolated quarantine centers domestically. We should demand credible resources devoted to producing effective treatments. Regardless, consider that it may come here 'in the wild':
http://www.ibtimes.com/ebola-coming-us-outbreak-west-africa-global-threat-says-obama-1690459
Let's get down to the basics on that. Stock up, make sure you have a good emergency plan, make sure your lines of communication can be maintained. Maybe go a little further than an earthquake/tornado/hurricane kit and pack an extra bin or two of long-shelf-life food and some water purification tablets. Buy a decent, basic, non-electronic book on disaster survival. Regardless your own level of preparedness, check out some rational tips here:
http://emergency.cdc.gov/
To explain the reasons to kids, maybe use the graphic zombie plague novel from the CDC:
http://emergency.cdc.gov/socialmedia/zombies.asp
We should examine our money chasing, risk-driven, selfish life views. We have bigger things to do than look pretty and smell nice. Like stopping Ebola.
Share and spread in other media, please. Don't panic, just be aware, and maybe share this instead of your next snappy e-card or picture about wine, football or women with ill-considered surgical work.
Francis S. Pruett
A report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Tuesday gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling.