Robert Rohloff KOTV Storm Tracker

11/11/2023

Mesonet Ticker: I was told there would be no snow
https://ticker.mesonet.org/

If past El Nino events are any indication, we could see a bit more snowfall this winter! Not strictly a forecast, but more a "tilting of the odds." Check out today's Ticker for more climatesplaining of El Nino and snowfall.

11/11/2023

Come out and see us tomorrow!

23/09/2023

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=7043417402357927&id=100000692107478&mibextid=0cALme

27/08/2023

HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
..STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, and for the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Idalia is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow, possibly
erratic, motion is expected overnight. A generally northward to
north-northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed is
expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday,
and approach the northeast Gulf coast late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday.
Additional strengthening is likely while Idalia approaches the
northeastern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba through
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on the Isle of Youth on Monday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late Monday and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also
be expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the
Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday
into Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

27/08/2023

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA HAS FORMED:

Florida get ready this will become a hurricane and has the potential for rapid intensification.

Tropical Storm Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1015 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
..DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

24/08/2023

GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK:

There is a area of interest in the Eastern Pacific that is expected to cross Central America and enter the Western Caribbean. This area already has a 60% chance of development. Right now interests in along the Central Gulf coast and the east coast of Florida need to watch as this develops.

The water in the Gulf of Mexico is extremely warm, really hot with temps in the mid to upper 80's. Shear is forecast to relax and conditions will improve for development of this system. Keep in mind we have seen what is called RI Rapid Intensification of storms the last few years particularly in the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located to the east of the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
A trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast
of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is
producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Recently received satellite wind data suggests that
the system has lost organization from yesterday, but a tropical
depression or storm could still form as it moves northward over the
subtropical central Atlantic. By this weekend, the system is
expected to merge with a frontal boundary north of the Gulf
Stream. For additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the northern Lesser Antilles. While environmental
conditions are marginal for additional development, they could
become more conducive in a few days. A tropical depression could
form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure centered over Central America is
forecast to move into northwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter into
early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves
slowly northward, entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

20/08/2023

TROPICS TURN ON:

We start with Hurricane Hillary in the Eastern Pacific, she was a Cat 4 hurricane but is quickly dropping strength as it moves into cooler water and hits drier air. But make no mistake it will cause major issues. California has its first Tropical Storm Warning ever. No tropical system has hit California since 1939.

Flash Flooding will be the main issue. Some areas of S. California will see a years rain in just a few hours. If you are heading to Las Vegas in the next couple of days significant flooding is going to be a serious problem.

The Atlantic is getting ready to rock with several areas being watched by the National Hurricane Center. None of this will help us in the heat dome over OK. But if you have a cruise planned stay tuned as it could be very active soon.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Six, located roughly 1300 miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for further development, and
a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or so while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at
about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next
week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase,
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Near the Windward Islands (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure near the Windward Islands. Some additional
development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could
form by early next week while this system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over portions of the Windward Islands during the next couple of
days. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the Florida peninsula is
expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a
broad area of low pressure is expected to form. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the
western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

4. Near the coast of Africa:
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

09/08/2023

Tornado Watch Issued:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Far Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
Eastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...The air mass in the wake of storms earlier today continues
to gradually destabilize, with severe storms expected to increase
mainly near a front through late afternoon and early evening. Strong
wind profiles will support initial supercells.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Springfield
MO to 30 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 617...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 28025.

06/08/2023

Severe Storms Overnight

I am down for at least 8 weeks due to shoulder surgery. No driving for me. But late tonight and during the early morning hours severe storms will again impact the area. Main threat strong winds.

15/07/2023

15/07/2023

The heat is on! Building heat with high dew points will make for dangerous outdoor conditions

14/07/2023

Tornado Threat tonight up a bit.

14/07/2023

Severe Weather Expected Tonight

Winds 70-80 mph with large hail the main threat however tornado threat is low but not nil.

05/07/2023

FLOOD POTENTIAL IN JULY?

Well we are going to see some heavy rains in the area for the next 5 days. There will be chances of some severe storms along with the heavy rains. Good news is the heavy rains may be up along the KS/OK border where water is really needed.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
131 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
131 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma; Western Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing...ending this evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma; West-Central Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing...ending by evening.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms stretch from southeast Oklahoma into west-
central and northwest Arkansas this afternoon along an advancing
outflow boundary. An isolated severe storm capable of producing
damaging winds can`t be ruled out. This threat should end by
evening. Another round of storms is expected late tonight into
Thursday morning, but should be sub-severe with locally heavy
rainfall possible.

Afternoon heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees are forecast
across far southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas.
Conditions should improve behind an advancing outflow boundary and
where storms occur.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY thru TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An active pattern will continue into the weekend with additional
rounds of thunderstorms possible through Tuesday. This will lead
to an increasing threat of heavy rainfall and possible flooding.
Severe weather will also be possible with any more organized
thunderstorm complexes in this pattern.

28/06/2023

100 mph winds reported in the panhandle let hope these stay north of Tulsa metro later tonight after midnight.

27/06/2023

27/06/2023

POSSIBLE SEVERE WIND EVENT TODAY:

Last night I said the chance of another Derecho was low well it may be a bit higher than the thinking earlier. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman has increased our risk with the new Day 1 outlook to Enhanced Risk.

This could possibly affect everyone from the Tulsa Metro and north. With pre existing damage and weakened trees this could be a serious threat. The tornado threat has increased a bit to the NW.
I will update this later in the day but you should make preparations now for a major severe wind event late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST AR/SOUTHWEST MO...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN SD AND NORTHERN NE...

...SUMMARY...
Storms producing severe winds (possibly in excess of 75 mph) are
most probable in a corridor from southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma
Panhandle, and potentially into the Ozark Plateau. Sporadic severe
hail will be possible over parts of the northern Plains, with
locally damaging gusts over parts of the Mid Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain anchored over the southern Great Plains
today, with upper troughs persisting over the western and eastern
CONUS. Within the western trough, a notable embedded shortwave and
attendant mid/upper-level jet is forecast to crest the ridge into
parts of the central Plains. Meanwhile, the eastern trough is
forecast to gradually weaken through the day. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to move offshore of the Carolinas, while the
western extension of the front will lift northward as a warm front
from the southern into parts of the central Plains.

...Southern KS/northern OK into the Ozark Plateau...
Confidence continues to increase in the potential for a long-lived
MCS this evening that could produce a swath of severe winds
(possibly greater than 75 mph) from southern KS/northern OK into
parts of the Ozark Plateau.

Initial storm development this afternoon is expected near the
intersection of a dryline and the retreating warm front somewhere
across the northern TX into the OK Panhandle, and also potentially
into southeast CO along a surface trough. Strong buoyancy and
effective shear increasing to 40+ kt in association with increasing
mid/upper-level flow will favor the development of a few supercells,
with a threat of very large hail. A tornado or two will also be
possible if any surface-based supercells can be sustained near the
warm front.

With time, storm consolidation is expected over southwest
KS/northwest OK, with CAM guidance and pattern recognition
suggesting the potential for MCS development along the northern
periphery of the upper ridge. A swath of severe wind, which may
include gusts to greater than 75 mph, appears possible from northern
OK/southern KS potentially into the Ozark Plateau, though the timing
and intensity of the MCS becomes increasingly uncertain by the end
of the forecast period.

27/06/2023

SEVERE STORMS AND STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY:

While the chances of another derecho is low even a line of severe storms with 70 mph could cause us major issues. We still have many trees with damage and that have been weakened from last week's storm. And there is still a lot of debris around.

So any severe winds could cause more damage. but late tomorrow night we could see some more damaging winds.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds are most probable in a
corridor from southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle eastward
across those states. Sporadic severe hail will be possible over
parts of the northern Plains, with locally damaging gusts over parts
of the Mid Atlantic.

...Southern KS/northern OK area...
Models have come into relatively good agreement depicting a corridor
of damaging wind potential, and the area has been upgraded. Storms
are expected to initiate over northeast NM into southeast CO during
the late afternoon, and grow upscale into an MCS as outflow is
produced. Strong instability with steep lapse rates will support
such an MCS, despite capping farther east during the evening.
Midlevel winds around 40 kt combined with the steep lapse rates
should result in a long swath of wind damage potential, but perhaps
narrow. Wind gusts over 65 kt will be possible. In addition,
wind-driven hail may occur, especially during the first few hours of
development from late afternoon into the early evening.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
921 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
921 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After Midnight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop again
late tonight along and south of the boundary as it begins to lift
northeast across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The best
chances for storms will be south of I-40 through the overnight
hours. A limited risk of severe weather, primarily in the form of
large hail, will accompany any storms that do develop late
tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...High Wind Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A few storms may linger into Tuesday, otherwise hot and humid
conditions will expand north. The potential is increasing for a
complex of strong to severe storms to impact northeast Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas Tuesday night, with damaging wind
potential. The focus will become the expanding and intensifying
heat for the Wednesday through Friday time frame. Heat index
values around 105 degrees will be common each afternoon and
additional heat advisories will likely be needed. The next cold
front arrives late Friday and moves slowly southward on Saturday.
A chance of thunderstorms will accompany the front along with
slightly cooler temperatures.

18/06/2023

So that was just plain ugly. I worked the lake and immediately went to storm tracking last night. I got so busy I did not get a heads up on this event.

I was in winds on I-44 that we measured at 75 and 78 mph out near Kellyville. There was damage and debris all over the roads, and there was just no way to keep up with the storms.

Damage around town is the most significant I have seen in a very long time, even worse than the ice storm due to the building damage along with the trees and power lines.

Spent today with some great neighbors cleaning up our yards, I got home about 0430 this morning and found this.

08/06/2023

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TO INCREASE:

We will see a uptick in severe weather chances starting this weekend into next week. I know we have been in a summer type pattern with very light winds for May and the start of June but we have had significant events well into June in the past. I say this so you will be weather aware for the weekend into next week.

Widespread smoke from Canadian wildfires continue to bring hazardous air quality levels across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, including major metro areas along the I-95 corridor. Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, isolated severe, may develop across the northern Rockies and High Plains. Read....

06/06/2023

So I was talking to a friend of mine Phil Price. He said he looked at Tulsa’s winds for May and found that we had a record monthly low wind speed average for the month. He said we averaged 6.8 mph and so far in June we are at 6.4 mph. This is quite low any storms that develop move very slowly and in different directions.

I found this:

Historically, the wind in Tulsa during May blows at an average speed of 16.2 mph (26.1 kph). The windiest month is April with an average wind speed of 18.0 mph (28.9 kph), while the calmest month is August with an average wind speed of 12.4 mph (19.9 kph).

01/06/2023

FLASH FLOODING SW OK AND W TEXAS

Heads up if you are out west or have family in SW OK.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0406
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Areas affected...Northwest TX and Western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011922Z - 020122Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms have developed
across northwestern Texas, which have a history of producing flash
flooding with hourly rainfall rates to 4 inches per hour.
Additional storm development and backbuilding are likely through
this afternoon. Flash flooding is possible with the strongest
storms.

DISCUSSION...Southeasterly moisture influx as strong as 15 kt at
the surface, with 850 mb flow to 25 kt is pumping plentiful Gulf
moisture into the region, supporting the strong storms over
portions of northwest Texas. The air mass is very unstable with
SBCAPE over northwest Texas to southwest Oklahoma as high as 2,500
J/kg.

While the large cluster of storms south of the Texas Panhandle
formed over an area that was less hard-hit from previous days, it
has a history of producing rainfall rates to 4 inches per hour and
storm total rainfall to 7 inches. This has already resulted in
flash flooding south of Lubbock which has closed major roadways in
the area. This slow-moving cluster of storms is expected to
develop upscale and perhaps accelerate a bit off to the east
through the afternoon across the Texas Big Country.

By mid to late afternoon, additional convection is expected to
develop further east across northwest Texas into southwest
Oklahoma. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are possible,
with isolated heavier amounts. Isolated flash flooding may result
as a north-south oriented line develops and allows cells all along
the line to take advantage of the moist and unstable southeasterly
inflow.