Debunking Conspiracies Aotearoa

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Debunking Conspiracies Aotearoa Exploring the source of conspiracies

21/11/2023

Many people misunderstand what '(x)% effectiveness' really means, particularly in the context of vaccines. Bill McCarthy explains it well here.

In an echo of National's 2005 racist “Iwi Vs Kiwi” billboard campaign. The party's strategist, Don Brash, tried to explo...
21/11/2023

In an echo of National's 2005 racist “Iwi Vs Kiwi” billboard campaign. The party's strategist, Don Brash, tried to exploit anxiety among conservative Pākehā voters by claiming Helen Clark's government was privileging Māori at their expense. Billboards and adverts implied that a Labour government would give everything to Māori, this yet again is being repeated by Brash, using Julian Batchelor as his front man.

Batchelor has said there are around 200 of the racist “stop co-gov” signs around the country. He says he hops this will grow to around 1000 over the next year.

“Under council rules, temporary signs are allowed only for advertising the sale of land or property, or promoting a community event or fundraiser”

Some Tasman locals are “deeply offended” and one said
“We feel amazed at the presumption we might be happy to live with this very offensive material which doesn’t show any real grasp of what the Treaty was about.

“[There’s] no sensitivity to tangata whenua, who have had to put up with strange people taking over their land for a century and a half.

It was important to speak out against the signs and their message,

“Silence is the worst possible thing that citizens can practise if they’re offended by this.”

Please report any signs you see, this hate and division should not be allowed to grow.

The man behind the growing number of "yeah right" anti co-governance signs says anyone offended should "close their eyes" and "get used to it".

21/11/2023

In his latest rant, Damien De Ment accused Paul the Other One of being DCA (we should be so lucky), but he’s on holiday so only doing re-posts. Here’s one worth sharing again:

And lastly for tonight, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver enjoying the fact that yet again big money behind big campaig...
21/11/2023

And lastly for tonight, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver enjoying the fact that yet again big money behind big campaigns can easily win elections, even if the candidate looks like a muppet and tweets all day with nothing much to say.

🥚👀

Bird of the Century on Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (2023) Dollar Stores - Season 10 - Episode 18 New Zealand's Forest & Bird Giving Nature a Voice ...

Apparently a government is being formed and it’s just down to roles now… apparently!Let’s see how the “master negotiator...
21/11/2023

Apparently a government is being formed and it’s just down to roles now… apparently!
Let’s see how the “master negotiator” handles the next step (if in fact they are there yet!). Dealing with boomer conspiracy theorists and fossil fools isn’t easy for the best of them, but for someone like Luxuryman who lives in fantasyland, its going to be ummm… interesting.

Christopher Luxon announced what sounded like a done deal in the coalition talks. Problem was he hadn't informed his fellow coalition leaders that they had a...

21/11/2023
After Damien the demented has been pumping out “Nuremberg 2” rubbish on his terrorgram feed, he’s now done an hour long ...
21/11/2023

After Damien the demented has been pumping out “Nuremberg 2” rubbish on his terrorgram feed, he’s now done an hour long video, which we will not amplify for obvious reasons, targeting people who challenge the bs he shares from the Russian/Trump propaganda network.
His so called ”evidence” of some vast network of “antifa” is people interacting on social media, the very people he’s stalked, harassed and incited hate towards for years yet now plays victims.
As Rangi points out, his evidence of some grand conspiracy is just the usual idiocy, a random post here and there of things that aren’t anything. When will De Ment come out of hiding from his mummies garage and actually face reality and realise that being anti-fascist is a GOOD thing? And the only conspiracy here is being played on him and all the other fools who waste their lives online watching fascist videos and memes?

New data from reveals the crushing burden of Long Covid in NZ.“Reading testimonies is like reading obituaries. LC patien...
20/11/2023

New data from reveals the crushing burden of Long Covid in NZ.

“Reading testimonies is like reading obituaries. LC patients describe their lives in the past tense, because the lives they used to have are now gone.”

Marc Daalder bsky.social

The first authoritative NZ research reveals the heartbreaking impact of the Long Covid illness on patients' lives

20/11/2023

Anti-vaxxers have robust, and in most cases lifelong immunity to logic, reason, and evidence. But…

Thinking Is Power
Dr. Dad: Raising Critical Thinkers
The Vaccination Station
Scientia Logicae - The Science of Logic
Bring Evidence
Dr. Jonathan N. Stea
Skeptical Spectacles
Critical thinking: logic, psychology, philosophy.
Sgt Scholar

20/11/2023

UN Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian Territories Francesca Albanese says there is a disconnect between atrocities committed in Gaza and the response of the Western world.

In New Zealand to meet with politicians, NGOs, human rights advocates and businesses this week, Albanese is calling for a multi-country intervention in the conflict.

She told reporters in Auckland that Hamas had committed war crimes, but actions taken by the Israeli military also violated the principles of international law - and there was a risk the crime of genocide was being carried out against the Palestinian people.

"Let's be clear: [Hamas'] killing civilians and taking civilian hostages are war crimes, and I've extended and continue to extend my deepest condolences to all communities affected.

"At the same time, what has happened in the occupied Palestinian territories - primarily in Gaza - is a complete violation of all basic principles that international law establishes.

"There have been over 12,000 people killed over a month now by Israeli bombs and military operations, 5000 of these are children, over 1.6 million people forcibly displaced, 30,000 Palestinians injured, and there is no measure to rescue them because Israel has also tightened its illegal blockade ... a collective punishment on the 2.2 million people living in the Gaza strip, half of whom are children.

"Half of the civilian infrastructure has been destroyed, 40,000 homes and churches, mosques, entire residential buildings, refugee camps and schools, bakeries, universities, there's very little to start, restart life after a ceasefire is declared.

"I've warned three times against the risk that Israel might be committing the crime of genocide in Gaza ... there has been calls to flatten Gaza, to erase Gaza from Earth, and to kill the Gazans because they are 'also responsible for what Hamas has done' and there is no distinction here between civilians and militants."

Albanese, an international lawyer and academic, is the first woman appointed to the role since it was established in 1993.

Officially the "Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967" - she is required to objectively monitor and report the situation in Gaza and the West Bank, and to provide details on it and its international legal ramifications to UN member countries.

"My role does entail observing the strictest standards of objectivity and impartiality ... once the facts are established, my responsibility is to analyse them according to the applicable international framework," she said.

The situation required the international community to promptly intervene, she said.

"We face a reality of a 56-year-old occupation - which has been the vehicle to colonise, to illegally annex, land that should be for ... an independent and sovereign state of Palestine - accompanied by the oppression of the Palestinian residents under a regime that cannot be called otherwise than apartheid. And nothing concrete has been done at an international level," she said.

"I'm really appalled the international community and each member state has not powerfully stood up to see a ceasefire declared and imposed among the warring parties.

"I don't understand why the political echelon in Western countries is being so removed from its obligations under international law, which include prevention of atrocity crimes. There is atrocity crimes being committed in Gaza and no-one is taking responsibility for it.

"What's going on in the occupied Palestinian territory is not only horrific in and of itself but is also a risk to threaten a broader regional conflagration. So I know peace is not the first thing that comes to the mind of the US administration - ever, if we look at 20 years of engagement in the Middle East and beyond - but at the same time, why the rest of the West needs to go behind it? Do we have our own consciousness?"

"What does it take to require a ceasefire, when over 12,000 people have been killed, 5000 of them are children and 3000 of them are under the rubble? Until a few days ago I would say gasping for air, but in fact they are now rotting under the rubble."

She said the situation had not been addressed as it should have been over a period of years, and the UN was completely paralysed because of the US veto and ongoing support for Israel.

"The general assembly and the Human Rights Council being more democratic and representative entities have tried to change the course of the meta (sic) but eventually international law is [only] as strong as the will of the member states to enforce it and there has been very little appetite, very little interest to take concrete measures."

It was clear Israel's continued military operation in Gaza was "not just about neutralising or annihilating Hamas military capacity".

"The goal was flattening the entire civilian infrastructure in Gaza, killing thousands of innocent people, how does it serve the purpose of depotentiating Hamas?

"I mean, how is this going to make the Palestinians less traumatised and less resentful towards the state of Israel which - it is to be remembered - had already killed thousands of people including 1000 children over the five wars that had occurred in 2008, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2021, 2022. It's heavy."

She also placed some blame with Western media, saying the reporting contributed to the dehumanisation of Palestinians and failed to take a principled, objective and impartial stance. This included a lack of reporting on the Israelis who opposed the occupation, on the marches in support of Palestinian citizens around Europe, and a failure to challenge Israeli generals over their statements in live interviews.

"I will not name any particular media but for example I come from a country, Italy ... while not representative of entire Europe it does represent a general modus operandi.

"In the West, both political leaders and the media are playing an incredibly dangerous and irresponsible role in not presenting the facts as they are and in often confusing their legal qualifications," she said.

She said war crimes "happened while states were continuing to recite the mantra of the two-state solution - which, I mean, there is international consensus but how can we get there while Israel continues to build the colonies and to maintain an apartheid regime by default?"

She called for a multilateral intervention in the conflict.

"That clearly accompanies Israel's demilitarisation, not just Hamas, but Israel needs to withdraw its military troops and needs to end the colonial enterprise in what remains of the occupied Palestinian territory ... what remains of historical Palestine. This is what needs to be done if the two-state solution really means something."

She said some had talked of a different kind of solution, and while she didn't know whether that was the right one, the two-state proposal did not match the reality.

"Why there is so much obsession with the form of state? There is a one-state reality on the ground with profound discrimination, and what should be the care of the international community is that everyone between the Jordan River and the sea enjoys recognition of humanity, and equal rights and freedoms of humanity.

"These people, both people - one more than the other, if you look at the numbers - need healing. Healing. This is not something that politicians ... doesn't register with them, the trauma, and heal the trauma that has been there forever.

"There should be accountability but more than anything else it's a fair approach to both people. That cannot happen without ... the deployment of a protective presence on the ground."

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/502863/un-special-rapporteur-francesca-albanese-calls-for-multilateral-intervention-in-gaza

20/11/2023

In case you haven't started your Christmas shopping, here's a really 💩 idea for a present.

Remember the assaults & abuse hurled at journalists, illegal occupation, students passing by spat on, shops forced to close, where the kids ran free around convicted criminals & drugs were a plenty.

If you're suffering a cost of living crisis but feel like throwing away $30, here's a cheap Warehouse Stationary calender you can buy 🙄

So many grifts, soooooo many 🥴

20/11/2023

Dodgy Dr. Girouard was let off without charge by police but the damage she has caused is unforgivable and she continues to scam people with her pseudoscience on several websites.
Sadly the consequences of her actions have not caught up with her but please report her websites and if you hear of her practising in Aotearoa again please report her.
Perhaps Jonie should stick to selling chocolate instead of putting lives at risk and ripping off New Zealanders!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127468319/antivax-exdoctor-in-canterbury-looks-set-to-continue-new-career-as-chocolatier

20/11/2023

It's not a good look when a member of the incoming govt gets served by an opposing mp, but that's exactly what happened today between David Seymour and Chloe Swarbrick over the call for a ceasefire in gaza. It was clear that Chloe knew exactly what she was talking about, clearly David Seymour didn't like it, firing back at Chloe with his very uneducated answer!! Seymour doesn’t even know which country to address, it’s Israel! And Israel is killing countless civilians in a country thats population is largely young children and babies, who are obviously not terrorists. Sadly this is where we are, fools who don’t know what they’re talking about are trying to justify not calling for peace while bullying people like Swarbrick who is standing with those calling for the brutality to end both by Hammas and the Israeli fascist government. Jews, Muslims, Christians, and people of many faiths are standing to call for a ceasefire, while zionists continue to claim calling for peace is “antisemitism”. If there is no ceasefire, there will be more bloodshed and that will include those who have been held hostage by Hamas, if Israel is only targeting the terrorist organisation — but we have seen this very not the case.
So much praise for Chloe.
https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newshub.co.nz%2Fhome%2Fpolitics%2F2023%2F11%2Fdavid-seymour-greens-chl-e-swarbrick-clash-over-israel-hamas-conflict-in-fiery-am-interview.html&h=AT0M8ZZVUZnTffELQl04Q1eEQeZjgQMKalzZOZRznGw46I10KT1K4yP5x9YfSdYebho1EisLXowL_L9toEJr0sfW5hBsX33LF2vzQvIMPyDpq5qEiCIonMx8NU2ilRiPuD4cS9CipSyH

There’s been a lot of silence about international mens day from those who are very vocal about not having one when it’s ...
20/11/2023

There’s been a lot of silence about international mens day from those who are very vocal about not having one when it’s international women’s day.

It’s international men’s day today!😀

What goes up, sadly will go down, why? Because the people who sold you lies to win an election for their wealthy benefac...
20/11/2023

What goes up, sadly will go down, why? Because the people who sold you lies to win an election for their wealthy benefactors, have policies that will lead to far worse outcomes for the majority of us over the few.
The fact they made out they’d form a “strong, stable” government when they can’t even stand being in the same room as each other was a big red flag, but here’s many of their mistruths blown open (sadly AFTER the election yet again).

Let's call it the Upturn: the trend lines heading in the right direction in all sorts of ways, from race relations to ram raids.

KKKyle Chapman, who drives around in N@zi camouflage, is yet again triggered by inclusivity and hopes to get everyone el...
20/11/2023

KKKyle Chapman, who drives around in N@zi camouflage, is yet again triggered by inclusivity and hopes to get everyone else as upset as him over it. Get over it already and stop trying to turn Aotearoa into a white supremacist nation!

“What we often see in these discussions is an impassioned defence from the right of their own free speech, but little re...
19/11/2023

“What we often see in these discussions is an impassioned defence from the right of their own free speech, but little regard for that of others. The rights of those proclaiming hateful things, be it Elon Musk or Don Brash, are sacrosanct, whereas the rights of others to call out their garbage is an affront to their liberties.

Give me a break.

Why is it so often that those defending free speech are not protecting people with brave or positive things to say, who are challenging injustice or privilege. But those with abhorrent views who demand people listen to what they think? Take for example local advocacy group the Free Speech Union (FSU).”

read on…

https://nickrockel.substack.com/p/defending-free-speech?fbclid=IwAR2Gp4dtxQewqKIUBCYYLg_RpfCVBeeJJuiJetxcinT0YgxDMwE7A0c7Jj4

What about Hate Speech and Fake Speech?

An important read but sadly again one that should have been reported BEFORE the election as the rhetoric used to persuad...
19/11/2023

An important read but sadly again one that should have been reported BEFORE the election as the rhetoric used to persuade voters to change back to a government that created most of the issues we face today, and plan to lead us backwards (if they can even form a government!).

”Let’s call it the Upturn: the trend lines heading in the right direction in all sorts of ways, from race relations to ram raids.”

Let's call it the Upturn: the trend lines heading in the right direction in all sorts of ways, from race relations to ram raids.

19/11/2023

If you wonder why it’s hard to get the police, this is the sort of 💩 they have to deal with!
“Officer, reports of dark suspicious looking clouds, please bring you tasers!”
Seriously stay off the conspiracy theories kids, it’s not good for yours or anyone else’s health!

This is how to placate someone cooked by SovCit 🐂💩 while you wait for backup to also take out the influencer scamming th...
19/11/2023

This is how to placate someone cooked by SovCit 🐂💩 while you wait for backup to also take out the influencer scamming them on the other end of the phone...

Bodycam footage shows Florida cops arresting two "sovereign citizens" who were "traveling" without a driver's license on November 11. The Volusia County Sher...

19/11/2023

Not surprised to see Billy still around 10 days after his last claim to be shutting his page. Hard to grift a living without your biggest audience to beg from.

We've covered Billy's MLM products and dodgy sites from his mockumentary poster. And it'll only cost his disciples $25 to watch it, even though they funded it, and there's more episodes to come 🙄. But there's the added bonus of listening to him yack on about himself before and afterward 🥱

Why does he need the money though if ThE EnD oF DaYs iS CoMiNg? 🤷‍♂️ Maybe Jesus will pay his bill 😅

19/11/2023

A history lesson & a laugh all rolled into one 😉

It’s often used by anti-vaccines influencers to scare people off vaccines, but while the vaccine AND Covid19 causes disr...
19/11/2023

It’s often used by anti-vaccines influencers to scare people off vaccines, but while the vaccine AND Covid19 causes disruptions to your cycle, it’s the disease that causes more problems. The vaccines are far safer than catching Covid19 and do not cause fertility issues.

“When COVID started we were worried about people dying, so other things were overlooked,” admits Hugh Taylor, chair of obstetrics and gynecology at Yale Medicine. In retrospect, Taylor says, patients should have been alerted to this possibility. “We see irregular menstrual cycles with other acute infections, so it isn’t surprising it happens here.”

18/11/2023

Being honest with ourselves is probably the most difficult aspect of critical thinking.

When we want (or don’t want) to believe something, our emotions take over and we act like lawyers trying to “win” our case. We don’t even realize our bias has created a double-standard for evidence.

The result is that we’re very confident we’re right…because after all, we have “facts.”

To more objectively evaluate (ALL) the evidence for a claim, separate your beliefs from your identity, and don’t play on a team…be the referee.

—Comic: Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal www.smbc-comics.com/index.php
—More on motivated reasoning and confirmation bias: https://thinkingispower.com/the-person-who-lies-to-you-the-most-is-you/
—More on objectivity and evaluating claims: https://skepticalinquirer.org/2022/02/a-life-preserver-for-staying-afloat-in-a-sea-of-misinformation/

18/11/2023

On a Sunday. Sounds legit 😂

ShEriFf Kerre Ann has spoken. Though how she's knows is beyond me. Maybe one of her horses wrote it down for her.

Finish the phrase “money talks….”A survivor of Wallace's reacted to the parole on social media on Friday."This is why I ...
18/11/2023

Finish the phrase “money talks….”

A survivor of Wallace's reacted to the parole on social media on Friday.

"This is why I left New Zealand," Dudley Benson

James Wallace, who had his knighthood revoked, was back before the parole board after being jailed for sexual offending against three young men.

17/11/2023

How can anyone take Clownterspin seriously?

Mike and Kelvyn obviously doing some cosplay on world domination today. Merry little would be dictators propping up their orange God...... Do you think they have his posters on their walls? 🤨

Remember when guys just dressed up in replica various uniforms and played out battles in local fields? Yeah it's like that but on a super weird level of actually wanting to overthrow governments and force people into dictatorships. Scary 💩

If anyone wants to report the post for the obvious red flags, do so to Netsafe. Doesn't matter it's aimed at an overseas journalist, it's still inciting violence.

Misinformation kills and this is why we must have regulations on tech companies who amplify dangerous disinformation!Ple...
17/11/2023

Misinformation kills and this is why we must have regulations on tech companies who amplify dangerous disinformation!

Please ignore propaganda from anti-vax grifters who claim they’re “saving the children”, no they’re endangering children and have cost countless lives to push their “alternative health” products.

The highly infectious disease triggered epidemics in 37 countries last year, versus 22 countries in 2021.

We've made a bingo card/drinking game for next time we have to listen to one of Damo's lives 🥴Feel free to use as you na...
17/11/2023

We've made a bingo card/drinking game for next time we have to listen to one of Damo's lives 🥴

Feel free to use as you navigate your way through Qanon 🐂 💩
DAMMIT! Completely forgot Qanon! Oh well, add it to yours.

Heart disease has been a leading cause of death in NZ for a long time. - "A new study has failed to find any increase in...
17/11/2023

Heart disease has been a leading cause of death in NZ for a long time. - "A new study has failed to find any increase in sudden cardiac deaths among college athletes, more evidence that “Died suddenly” (due to COVID-19 vaccines) is not a thing."

More here:

A new study reports that sudden cardiac deaths among college athletes have decreased, more evidence that "died suddenly" is not a real thing.

17/11/2023

Plunket still isn't sure if he's with the cookers or against them. He calls Liz and co 'cookers' but still welcomes them on the Platform to spread misinformation.

Anyhoo, here's a Friday giggle. We're not identifying the woman speaking. Just glad people are waking up to Liz "I have proof but can't show it" Gunn.

17/11/2023

Ah there it is -
Why would a lawyer need your money for her petition? - An "awareness campaign"? Does that mean more nonsense billboards and stickers popping up? 🙄

We've covered the law firm email address and (possibly) it's bank account number.

16/11/2023

*The following is an opinion piece and it's content is not necessarily supported or endorsed by DCA..... 😉

"Someone asked me what Carlene is up to these days. Well, she's still part of the so called 'Freedom movement' and fighting against all the 'government tyranny', despite relying on said government (via the taxpayer) for her income. So yeah, hypocrite much? 🤷‍♂️

She's joined AdMiRaL Gregory Cook's naval crew and is practicing marching around various areas chanting and flying flags. Personally I want to know what happens when they come across Kerre Ann and her merry bunch of ShEriFfS. Is there a working relationship between the two? Or will they all try to arrest each other?

Qarlene is still celebrating the clearing of DuMbS (deep underground military bases) in NZ she claims 100,000 nz children were moved through to foreign countries, and claims thousands of children are being rescued from containers on container ships as I type this. Also celebrating the likes of Russell Brandt despite the SA accusations against him - because like men are women and women are men in the Q world Qarlene moves in; innocent people are offenders, and offenders are innocent people (just being falsely accused by anyone who doesn't believe in Q nonsense).

Keeping up? Yeah it's brain numbing stupid I know.

Her page is full of Qanon nonsense which hasn't changes much over the last 3 years. Still waiting for Trump who's SaViNg aLl ThE cHiLdReN, and other rabbithole fodder.

In other words, you haven't missed much." 😏

'Sovereign citizen' turns back into everyday citizen and admits he was ridiculous. That's one less sov cit for Nelson's ...
16/11/2023

'Sovereign citizen' turns back into everyday citizen and admits he was ridiculous. That's one less sov cit for Nelson's woo woo society.

We're just glad Sue wasn't acting as his Mckenzie friend or it might have had a very different outcome 😬

Kudos to Luke for 'waking up' 🙂

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/takaka-man-switches-plea-to-guilty-after-fracas-with-police-over-bogus-number-plates/5DZPDSIWYBD6XCKWOP373A32TA/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=nzh_fb&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0HLPA_oQG-0N8_AYtdsrVF9u4o9FccYCPSSJxgFfsmuIfcy7o8vqgYPF0 =1700159507

Luke Shackleton said he wasn't proud of the way he acted, but didn't want to admit guilt.

There you are, Brads admitted his ‘save Marsden Point’ scam is a money making venture. Well we all knew it because it wa...
16/11/2023

There you are, Brads admitted his ‘save Marsden Point’ scam is a money making venture. Well we all knew it because it was based on lies that the refinery made oil (it imported it), that the gov shut it down (the owners shut it down years before), and that they can somehow crowdfund to get it going again when it’s dismantled 🤦‍♀️
We are yet trying to find out what Carinas business is, it appears that making other people’s private lives her business to scream at them is her vocation so far after she failed at trying to get a real job, likely because they’d seen how much of a nasty human she is!

“People who believe in conspiracy theories have brains that are more prone to illusory pattern perception: aka finding c...
16/11/2023

“People who believe in conspiracy theories have brains that are more prone to illusory pattern perception: aka finding connections when there are none.” The culprit behind this could be dopamine. “People with genetically higher levels of free dopamine are more likely to believe in one or more conspiracy theories.” After these beliefs take root, confirmation bias strengthens them.

The scary and uncertain times we live in could actually be driving the boom in conspiracy theories. “Feelings of powerlessness can compel a person to try and find order in chaos, and that often means finding patterns where there are none.” However, there is hope for those who turn to conspiracies to cope. “Empowering people by encouraging them to take action in their own personal lives can reduce feelings of helplessness, and in turn reduce the reliance on conspiracy theories.”

More...

Neuroscientist Explains Why Some People Are More Prone To Believing Conspiracies

"The court was shown multiple examples of hateful comments from a variety of social media sources."Siouxsie is one of th...
16/11/2023

"The court was shown multiple examples of hateful comments from a variety of social media sources.

"Siouxsie is one of the most targeted and harassed people online in Aotearoa New Zealand," Hattotuwa said. "She faces a huge amount of vituperative, vicious and violent harassment on virtually every online platform and on an almost daily basis." "

More here: (TRIGGER WARNING, MENTIONS SA).

The researcher told the court he was "astonished" to read a risk assessment by the university, which said the risk of harm to Wiles "is unlikely to be high".

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