Public Weather Forecast- Danglas DRRMC (2024)

29/08/2023

LOOK: Hon. Esther B. Bernos signed the Office Order No. 15 on the Suspension of Classes in All Level both Private and Public schools due to the inclement weather condition brought by Typhoon "GORING" in the Municipality of Danglas, Abra on August 29, 2023.
For Information and guidance.
Keep safe kakailyan

29/08/2023

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #23
Typhoon "Goring", Issued at 11:00 am, 29 August 2023

TYPHOON GORING CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD

The center of the eye of Typhoon GORING was estimated at 180 km East of Aparri, Cagayan. It is moving Northwestward slowly with a maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 190 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 3
The southern portion of Batanes (Sabtang, Uyugan, Ivana, Mahatao, Basco) and the northeastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is.)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 2
The rest of Batanes and Babuyan Islands, and the extreme northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1
The northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Camalaniugan, Pamplona, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Claveria, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Allacapan, Lal-Lo, Lasam, Peñablanca, Iguig, Amulung, Gattaran, Alcala, Santo Niño), the eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, Ilagan City, Tumauini, San Pablo, Cabagan, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan), the northern portion of Apayao (Flora, Calanasan, Luna, Pudtol, Santa Marcela), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Vintar, Pasuquin, Burgos, Dumalneg, Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui)

GORING is forecast to follow a mainly northwestward or west northwestward path across the Luzon Strait from today until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or Thursday morning. The latest track forecast indicates that the typhoon may pass very close or make landfall in the vicinity of Batanes between tomorrow morning and afternoon (although a slight southward shift in the track forecast may bring the eye and eyewall region of the typhoon to the northern portion of Babuyan Islands). During this period, the typhoon is forecast to persist in strength by the time it passes very close or over Batanes (although gradual re-intensifying and reaching into a super typhoon category is not ruled out).

Outside the PAR region, the typhoon will continue its west northwestward movement for the remainder of Thursday before turning more westward by Friday, increasingly unfavorable conditions over the waters southeast of mainland China will trigger a weakening trend. By the time GORING may make landfall in the vicinity of southeastern China (near Hong Kong/Pearl River Delta area) on Sunday, it will have weakened to minimal typhoon strength.

Source: DOST PAGASA

26/08/2023

FOR WIDEST DISSEMINATION
GFA No. 5 for CAR (Cordillera Administrative Region)
Issued: 6:00 am, 27 August 2023

Present Weather: AT 3:00 AM TODAY, THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON "GORING" {SAOLA} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF PALANAN, ISABELA WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 185 KM/H NEAR THE CENTER AND GUSTINESS OF UP TO 230 KM/H. IT IS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD SLOWLY. SOUTHWEST MONSOON AFFECTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS, AND MINDANAO.

Forecast 12-hr rainfall: Moderate to occasionally heavy rains.

WATERCOURSES LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED:
Benguet - rivers and its tributaries particularly upper bauang.
Apayao - rivers and its tributaries particularly upper abulug and upper pamplona.
Ifugao - all rivers and its tributaries.
Abra - rivers and its tributaries particularly upper abra, tineg and ikmin.
Kalinga - all rivers and its tributaries.
Mountain province - all rivers and its tributaries.

People living near the mountains slopes and in the low lying areas of the abovementioned river systems and the local disaster risk reduction and management
Councils concerned are still advised to be alert for possible flashfloods and landslides.

Source: DOST - PAGASA

26/08/2023

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 13
Typhoon GORING (SAOLA)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 27 August 2023

GORING CONTINUES TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND IS NEARING SUPER TYPHOON CATEGORY

The center of the eye of Super Typhoon GORING was estimated based on all available data, including those from Baler and Daet Weather Radars, over the coastal waters of Palanan, Isabela.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL NO 1 - Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, and the eastern portion of Benguet (Bokod, Buguias, Kabayan, Mankayan).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall for today 50-100 mm: Ilocos Region, Apayao, Abra, Benguet.

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and raininduced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• GORING is forecast to begin its loop over the Philippine Sea east of Cagayan-Isabela area today. The super typhoon will then turn northeastward and northward on Monday before shifting to a more northwestward movement on Tuesday. On the track forecast, GORING will make landfall over the southern portion of Taiwan on Wednesday evening or on Thursday early morning.

• GORING is forecast to remain at super typhoon category until it makes landfall over southern Taiwan. Land interaction with Taiwan’s rugged terrain will weaken the super typhoon. It is likely that GORING will emerge over the Taiwan Strait and exit the PAR region as a severe tropical storm or a minimal typhoon.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

Source: DOST - PAGASA

26/08/2023

Daily Weather
Issued at 4:00 AM, 27 August 2023

SYNOPSIS: At 3:00 AM today, the center of the eye of Super Typhoon "GORING" {SAOLA} was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Palanan, Isabela with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 230 km/h. It is moving South Southwestward slowly. Southwest Monsoon affecting Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.

The Cordillera Administrative Region will experience rains with gusty winds due to TY Goring. Possible flooding or landslides due to moderate with at times heavy rains may occur.

Strong winds blowing Northeast to Northwest will prevail over Northern Luzon.

The sun will rise at 5:44 AM.

Source: DOST - PAGASA

26/08/2023

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 12
Typhoon GORING (SAOLA)
Issued at 11:00 PM, 26 August 2023

GORING CONTINUES TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND IS NEARING SUPER TYPHOON CATEGORY

The center of the eye of Typhoon GORING was estimated based on all available data, including those from Aparri, Baler, and Daet Weather Radars, at 135 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 215 km/h, and central pressure of 950 hPa. It is moving Southward at 10 km/h.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL NO 1 - Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, and the eastern portion of Benguet (Bokod, Buguias, Kabayan, Mankayan).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tonight to tomorrow evening - 50-100 mm: Benguet and Abra

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and raininduced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
In the near terms e.g., next 6 hours, GORING is forecast to continue moving closer towards coast of Isabela. Afterwards, it will then turn generally southeastward and eastward tomorrow before turning northeastward on Monday. On Tuesday, GORING will begin its generally northwestward movement, bringing its center less than 200 km from Batanes by Wednesday afternoon or evening. On the track forecast, GORING may make landfall over the southeastern coast of Taiwan on Thursday.

GORING is forecast to reach super typhoon category within the next 12 hours and achieve its peak intensity on Monday or Tuesday. Its landfall over the southern portion of Taiwan will result in significant weaken, although it is forecast to remain as a typhoon by the time it emerges over the Taiwan Strait on Thursday evening or Friday early morning.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

Source: DOST - PAGASA

26/08/2023

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
Typhoon "Goring"
Issued at 05:00 pm, 26 August 2023

GORING CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE SEA EAST OF CAGAYAN

The center of the eye of Typhoon GORING was estimated based on all available data, including those from Aparri Weather Radar, at 145 km East Northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 190 km/h. It is moving Southwestward at 10 km/h.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow afternoon - 50-100 mm: Cordillera Administrative Region
Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow afternoon to Monday afternoon - 50-100 mm: Cordillera Administrative Region

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
GORING is forecast to move generally southward to southeastward in the next 24 hours before turning east northeastward to northeastward on Monday. Afterwards, the typhoon will exit its looping path and move northwestward on Tuesday towards the sea east of Taiwan while moving on a consistent pace.
Due to highly favorable environment, GORING is forecast to steadily intensify throughout most of the forecast period and may reach super typhoon category on Monday. Upwelling of cooler waters due to its slow movement will limit further intensification by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1 – Apayao, Kalinga, Ifugao, Abra, and eastern portion of Benguet (Bokod, Buguias, Kabayan, Mankayan).

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

Source: DOST - PAGASA

25/08/2023

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 9
for Typhoon "Goring"
Issued at 05:00 am, 26 August 2023

GORING CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE SEA EAST OF BABUYAN ISLANDS

The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data 185 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 170 km/h moving Southwestward at 10 km/h.

No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal raised over CAR.

GORING is forecast to move generally southward to southeastward today and tomorrow, then turn eastward to northeastward on Sunday. Afterwards, the typhoon will exit its looping path and move northwestward towards the sea east of Taiwan.

Due to highly favorable environment, GORING is forecast continue intensifying throughout most of the forecast period and may reach super typhoon category on Monday. Upwelling of cooler waters due to its slow movement will limit further intensification by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Source: DOST-PAGASA

25/08/2023

WEATHER FORECAST
Issued at 4:00 AM, 26 August 2023

At 3:00 AM today, the center of Typhoon "GORING" {SAOLA} was estimated based on all available data at 195 km East of Calayan, Cagayan with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 170 km/h. It is moving Southwestward at 10 km/h. Southwest Monsoon affecting Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.

The Cordillera Administrative Region will experience cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms due to the trough of TY Goring. Possible flooding or landslides due to moderate to heavy rains.

Strong winds blowing Northeast to Northwest will prevail over Northern Luzon.

The sun will rise at 5:44 AM.

Source: DOST-PAGASA

25/08/2023

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 8
for Typhoon "Goring"
Issued at 11:00 pm, 25 August 2023

GORING FURTHER INTENSIFIES INTO A TYPHOON FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION

The center of the eye of Typhoon GORING was estimated based on all available data, including those from Aparri Weather Radar at 205 km East of Calayan, Cagayan with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 150 km/h moving Southwestward at 10 km/h.

No Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal raised over CAR.

Over the next two days, GORING is forecast to move generally southward to southeastward over the waters east of Cagayan Valley. Afterwards, the typhoon will make a northeastward to northward turn on Monday before accelerating northwestward on Tuesday and Wednesday towards the sea east of Taiwan.

Due to highly favorable environment, GORING is forecast continue intensifying throughout most of the forecast period and may reach super typhoon category on Monday.

Source: DOST-PAGASA

25/08/2023

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 6
for Tropical Storm GORING
Issued at 11:00 am, 25 August 2023

GORING CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD

The center of Tropical Storm GORING was estimated based on all available data at 225 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes or 270 km East of Calayan, Cagayan with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h moving South Southwestward slowly.

No Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal raised over CAR.

GORING is forecast to move south southwestward or southward over the waters east of Northern Luzon until tomorrow evening, then turn generally south or southeastward for the rest of tomorrow through Sunday afternoon. Afterwards, the tropical cyclone will loop northward before turning to the northwest on Tuesday towards Luzon Strait. For the most of the forecast period, GORING is forecast to move slowly.

Due to highly favorable environment, GORING is forecast to rapidly intensify and may reach typhoon category by tomorrow. It may reach its peak intensity on Sunday evening, after which it is forecast to maintain strength until the end of the forecast period. The potential for developing into a super typhoon is not ruled out.

Source: DOST-PAGASA

24/08/2023

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 2
Tropical Depression “Goring”
Issued at 11:00 am, 24 August 2023

GORING MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
The center of Tropical Depression GORING was estimated based on all available data at 355 km East Northeast of Calayan, Cagayan or 300 km East of Basco, Batanes with a maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving moving North Northwestward at 15 km/h.

No Wind Signal hoisted at this time.

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
• Tropical Depression GORING is less likely to bring heavy rainfall over the country in the next three days. However, considering the proximity of the tropical cyclone to land, any westward shift in the track forecast may result in heavy rainfall over portions of Cagayan Valley in the next three days. As such, the public and disaster managers are advised to continue monitoring for updates.
• The Southwest Monsoon may be enhanced by this tropical cyclone beginning on Sunday or Monday, resulting in possible occasional rains over the western portions of Central and Southern Luzon. As such, the possibility of issuing a Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

•Severe Winds
•The current forecast scenario shows that hoisting of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals over areas in Northern Luzon may begin tonight or tomorrow in anticipation of the onset of tropical cyclone severe winds. However, the hoisting may happen earlier should there be changes in the forecast scenario.
•The possible enhancement of Southwest Monsoon may result in gusty conditions beginning on Sunday or Monday over most of Southern Luzon and Visayas, as well as portions of Caraga. The gusty conditions are more likely in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• After a period of generally northwestward movement in the next 12 hours, GORING is forecast to turn generally southward while over the waters off the eastern coast of Cagayan Valley. Over the next five days, the tropical cyclone will follow a generally looping track and may likely return to a more northward movement by late Monday or Tuesday.
• GORING is forecast to steadily intensify throughout the forecast period and may reach tropical storm category tonight or tomorrow early morning. It may be upgraded into a typhoon category by Sunday during the southward segment of its looping track. After a period of generally northwestward movement in the next 12 hours, GORING is forecast to turn generally southward while over the waters off the eastern coast of Cagayan Valley. Over the next five days, the tropical cyclone will follow a generally looping track and may likely return to a more northward movement by late Monday or Tuesday.

GORING is forecast to steadily intensify throughout the forecast period and may reach tropical storm category tonight or tomorrow early morning. It may be upgraded into a typhoon category by Saturday during the southward segment of its looping track. While current intensity forecast indicate the progression towards typhoon category, the inherent volatility of attaining super typhoon category remains a possibility.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

DOST-PAGASA

25/07/2023

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #24
Typhoon "Egay"
Issued at 02:00 am, 26 July 2023

VIOLENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER BABUYAN ISLANDS AS TYPHOON EGAY PASSES NORTH OF CAMIGUIN ISLAND

The center of the eye was estimated at the coastal waters of Calayan, Cagayan. It is Moving West Northwestward at 20 km/h and has a maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 240 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 3
- Apayao
- the northern portion of Kalinga (Rizal, Pinukpuk, Balbalan)
- the northern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lagayan, Lacub, Danglas)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 2
- the rest of Kalinga,
-Mountain Province,
-Ifugao, t
-he northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Kibungan, Atok), -rest of Abra,

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1
- the rest of Benguet

EGAY is forecast to move westward or west northwestward over the Luzon Strait in the next 12 hours and either pass close or make landfall in the vicinity of Babuyan Islands within the same period.

After passing the Babuyan Islands, EGAY will turn northwestward or north northwestward and pass over the waters south and southwest of Taiwan. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow morning. Outside the PAR region, EGAY will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall in the vicinity of Fujian, China on Friday morning.

EGAY is forecast to weaken throughout the forecast period, although the rate of weakening will not be rapid due to slightly favorable environment offsetting the impact of land interaction with the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon and Taiwan. A more rapid weakening is expected once EGAY makes landfall and moves inland over mainland China, with the tropical cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by Saturday.

Source: DOST PAGASA

25/07/2023

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN No. 22
Issued at 8:00 PM, 25 July 2023

STY EGAY continues to maintain its strength as it continues to threaten Northern Luzon.

The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data 135 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 230 km/h. It is moving northwestward at 15 km/h. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 680 km from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 3
Apayao, northern portion of Kalinga (Rizal, Pinukpuk, Balbalan), Batanes, and the northern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lagayan, Lacub, Danglas)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2
the rest of Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Kibungan, Atok)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1
Rest of Benguet

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.

EGAY is forecast to move west northwestward in the next 24 hours before turning generally northwestward and cross the Luzon Strait. On the track forecast, it is forecast to make landfall or pass very close to Babuyan Islands-northeastern mainland Cagayan area between late evening today and tomorrow morning. Slight northward or southward shift in this segment of the track (but within the forecast confidence cone) may result in a landfall or close approach over northern mainland Cagayan or Batanes.

EGAY is forecast to weaken its intensity in the next 12 hours. Afterwards, weakening trend may begin due to increasing interaction with the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon and Taiwan. Further weakening is expected outside the PAR region due to increasingly unfavorable environment and the eventual landfall over the landmass of China.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

Source: DOST-PAGASA

24/07/2023

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #16
Typhoon "Egay"
Issued at 2:00 AM, 24 July 2023

EGAY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING STRENGTH.

The center of the eye of Typhoon EGAY was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 335 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora with maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 205 km/h. It is moving Northwestward at 20 km/h. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 600 km from the center.

TROPICAL WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3
The northern portion of Apayao
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speed: 89 to 117 km/h
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property

TCWS No. 2
Apayao
The rest of Apayao,
Kalinga,
Abra,
Mountain Province,
Ifugao,
The northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Kibungan),

TCWS No. 1
The rest of Benguet

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Forecast accumulated rainfall today
50-100 mm: Apayao and Abra
Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow
Above 200 mm: Apayao and Abra
100-200 mm: The western portion of Kalinga, the western portion of Mountain Province, and the western portion of Benguet
50-100 mm: The northern portion of Isabela, the rest of Kalinga, the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Benguet, and the western portion of Ifugao

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

In addition, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by EGAY will continue to bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days..

SEVERE WINDS

Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 3.
Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted.
EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon may also bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

EGAY is forecast to move northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning generally west northwestward and cross the Luzon Strait. On the track forecast, this typhoon is forecast to make landfall or pass very close to Babuyan Islands between tomorrow early morning and tomorrow afternoon. Slight northward or southward shift in this segment of the track (but within the forecast confidence cone) may result in a landfall or close approach over northern mainland Cagayan or Batanes.

After passing the Babuyan Islands, EGAY will turn northwestward or north northwestward and pass over the waters south of Taiwan. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow evening or on Thursday morning. Outside the PAR region, EGAY will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall in the vicinity of Fujian, China on Thursday evening or Friday morning.
EGAY is forecast to continue intensifying and reach super typhoon category within 24 hours. However, should the track forecast shift closer to the landmass of Luzon, the typhoon may peak at an intensity just below STY threshold. A weakening trend may begin as the typhoon passes over the Babuyan Islands due to the potential onset of eyewall replacement cycle and interaction with the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon. Further weakening is expected outside the PAR region due to increasingly unfavorable environment and the eventual landfall over the landmass of China.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

Source: DOST – PAGASA

24/07/2023

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
Typhoon "Egay"
Issued at 5:00 pm, 24 July 2023

TYPHOON EGAY STEADILY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD

The center of the eye of Typhoon EGAY was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 500 km East of Baler, Aurora with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 190 km/h. It is moving North northwestward at 10 km/h. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 600 km from the center.

TROPICAL WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
Apayao
Kalinga
Central and eastern portions of Mountain Province (Paracelis, Natonin, Barlig, Sadanga, Bontoc)
Eastern portion of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista, Aguinaldo, Mayoyao, Lagawe, Banaue, Hingyon, Lamut)
Central and eastern portions of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagangilang, San Juan, Dolores, Lagayan, Danglas, La Paz, Daguioman, Boliney, Bucloc, Licuan-Baay, Sallapadan, Tayum, Bucay, Bangued, Peñarrubia, Manabo, Tubo)
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speed: 62 to 88 km/h
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

TCWS No. 1
The rest of Abra, the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Ifugao, and Benguet
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h
Potential Impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property.

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Forecast accumulated rainfall on Wednesday
Above 200 mm: Apayao and Abra
100-200 mm: Mt. Province, and Benguet
50-100 mm: the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
Forecast accumulated rainfall on Wednesday noon to Thursday noon
Above 200 mm: The northwestern portion of Abra
100-200 mm: Apayao and the rest of Abra
50-100 mm: Kalinga, the western portion of Mountain Province, and Benguet

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

In addition, EGAY may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days.

Severe Winds

Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 are in effect.

Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted.

Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 4 or 5 (e.g., typhoon-force wind threat).

EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon may also bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:

Today: The rest of Visayas and MIMAROPA, and the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Caraga.

Tomorrow: The rest of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and the northern portion of Northern Mindanao and Dinagat Islands.

Wednesday: Visayas and the rest of Luzon.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

EGAY is forecast to track north northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning generally northwestward and head closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon towards the Luzon Strait.

On the track forecast, this typhoon is forecast to cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between tomorrow late evening and Wednesday morning. Typhoon EGAY may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday as it moves over the waters southwest of Taiwan.

Outside the PAR, the typhoon will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over Fujian, China on late Thursday or early Friday. • It must be emphasized that further shift in the track forecast closer to Luzon remains a possibility due to the persistence of the ridge of high pressure north of the typhoon. This is represented by the forecast confidence cone. As such, a landfall over the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out.

EGAY is forecast to continue intensifying and reach super typhoon category by late tomorrow or on early Wednesday. However, should the track forecast shift closer to the landmass of Luzon, the typhoon may peak at an intensity just below STY threshold. Nevertheless, EGAY is forecast to become a very strong typhoon. A weakening trend may begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening as it enters the cooler waters southwest and west of Taiwan (i.e., Taiwan Strait)

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

Source: DOST – PAGASA

Public Weather Forecast- Danglas DRRMC

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