28/08/2023
9:00pm Tropical Update: Idalia Heading To Florida As A Strong CAT 2 Hurricane. Hurricane / Tropical Storm Watches / Flash Flood Watches / Storm Surge Warnings Are Up And In Effect
Good evening
We have a very dangerous storm heading to Florida
This is going to be a major storm surge and rain event with the possibility of the system becoming a CAT 3 at landfall
We have our brand new storm surge / rain totals added to tonight’s update below
Emergency Info:
FEMA - https://www.fema.gov/
Florida Division Of Emergency Management - https://www.floridadisaster.org/
Florida Counties Under State Of Emergency - https://www.floridadisaster.org/news-media/news/20230826-icymi-governor-ron-desantis-issues-updates-on-invest-93l2/
Tropical Storm Dalia: Soon To Be Hurricane Idalia
Location: 20.1N – 85.4W
Max Sustained Winds: 45mph
Trajectory: ENE @ 3mph
Barometric Pressure: 995mb
Very little has changed between last nights, this mornings and the new update on Idalia as far as trajectory, strength and landfall.
This morning our models indicated a 60% chance Idalia would make landfall as a Cat 2, tonight’s models indicate near 100% chance of CAT 2 at landfall
We are however, narrowing the cone a bit based on the last 8 model runs. Here’s what we’re looking at
Timeline:
Sunday Evening – Idalia will skirt the western shores of Cuba, slowly, before resuming a more northerly push.
She’s going to stay a Tropical Storm tonight, gaining some strength with max sustained winds of about 60mph.
Monday – We model Idalia speeding up her northward trajectory to between 10mph and 15mph, still moving generally north.
She’ll top out at around 70mph by late Monday evening
Tuesday – Our models currently indicate 2 key changes Tuesday. First, she’ll strengthen to a CAT 1 with max sustained winds of 90mph, with gusts well over 100mph likely. Second, the majority of our models indicate she’ll start a slight shift northeast late morning Tuesday as she begins her bend to Florida.
Landfall –
Models indicate landfall occurring between Horseshoe Beach to the south and Fish Creek to the north, very early am Wednesday as a strong CAT 1 Hurricane with max sustained winds of 105mph, gusts above 110mph likely.
* There is now a 20% chance that Idalia will come in as a CAT 3 with max sustained winds of 115mph
After Landfall -
Idalia will qu**ky degenerate as she cuts through north & north-central Florida and into Georgia as a Tropical Storm with max sustained winds of 65mph with gusts well in to Hurricane range likely.
Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday am Idalia will be on the Georgia / South Carolina border as a Tropical Storm with max sustained winds of about 50mph.
Storm Surge: Idalia is going to be a major storm surge event. The angle, intensity, size and projected speed of the storm will create a scenario where 11 foot storm surges are likely in the core area, with storm surges between 1-3 feet affecting as far south as the Florida Keys and as far north as the Panhandle. Inner non core areas will see 3-6 feet or more of storm surge. See the attached infographic to see what the storm surge is expected to be by you
Rainfall: This is going to be a major rain event with almost the entire west coast and parts of central Florida affected.
6-10 inches of rain will pelt a swath of north-central Florida and into Georgia, while surrounding areas will see 4-6 inches of rain. Peripheral regions of the storm will see 2-4 inches well into central and coastal NE Florida and most of Georgia
See attached infographic
Flooding: Flash flood watches are in effect. See attached infographic for details.
Idalia is going to be a very dangerous storm, with Floridians in the affected areas having till Tuesday evening to prepare.
Next Tropical Update: Our next update will be at 10am tomorrow morning, sooner if there’s any material change with Idalia
Live from Delray Beach Florida & with utmost gratitude,
Gregg, Daniela, Oscar & Rebecca
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* Just under 2 weeks till the mid-year “2023/2024 Hurricane Storm Prep Guide” is going live, and here’s how sponsors can take part.
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