The Crypto Nutshell

05/11/2024

🚨 BREAKING: IT’S ALL ABOUT THE ELECTION 🏦

Bitcoin price falls as traders brace for election

It’s almost time…

Tuesday November 5th is the US Presidential election.

The outcome is set to have major repercussions for both Bitcoin and crypto.

Despite Bitcoin coming within touching distance of a new all-time high…

It’s been in a mini downtrend for the last couple of days.

In fact, If you compare Trump’s odds of victory on Polymarket, to the price of Bitcoin…

Throughout both of their campaigns, Trump has expressed more pro-crypto policies compared to Harris.

So this is how the market is interpreting the US election:

◼️Trump Win: Bitcoin shoots up 📈
◼️Harris Win: Bitcoin crashes 📉

But that’s only the case in the short-term…

At the end of the day, Bitcoin doesn’t care which party wins the US election.

After the US election (vertical red lines on the chart above), Bitcoin always shoots up eventually.

It happened when Trump won in 2016.

And it happened when Biden won in 2020.

At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter who wins.

The market just needs certainty.

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04/11/2024

🚨BREAKING: THE SEC WON’T BACK DOWN 🏦

SEC Goes After Another Crypto Firm, Slaps Immutable With Wells Notice

Here we go again…

Another week, another instance of the SEC going after crypto firms…

This time Web3 gaming firm, Immutable X, is the target.

In a statement posted on Friday, Immutable X announced that they had been issued a Wells Notice from the SEC.

As a reminder:

A Wells Notice is a letter sent to companies following an investigation by the SEC. It informs them that the regulator is planning a lawsuit against them.

Get this though…

“With this action, the SEC is continuing to indiscriminately assert that tokens are securities. While not specified in the notice, we believe its claims are targeting the listing and private sales of IMX in 2021.” - Immutable X

Continuing on, Immutable X explains that they will take this case to court if needed:

“We are confident in our position, in the value digital ownership can bring to 3.1 billion gamers across the world, and in the power of blockchain to create a better internet. If required, we will fight for these rights, and those of our industry, vigorously.” - Immutable X

Immutable X’s native token IMX dropped ~5.60% as this news broke.

But the crypto industry fights back saying that it’s not possible to register with the agency…

Mostly because the rules were made for more traditional entities…

So instead of slapping crypto companies with multiple lawsuits, why can’t the SEC just clarify the rules? 🤨

It’s baffling…

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02/11/2024

🚨BREAKING: BITCOIN’S BIRTHDAY 🥳

Bitcoin turns 16: From experiment to trillion-dollar asset

Yesterday, Bitcoin’s white paper turned 16 years old!

On October 31, 2009 Satoshi Nakamoto shared the white paper “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” with a cryptography mailing list.

And the rest is history…

If you’ve never looked over the white paper before, you can check it out here.

Just a heads up though…

It does get quite technical, but it’s still worth skimming over.

Even Trump joined in on celebrating the 16th anniversary of Bitcoin’s white pape

We know yesterday “technically” wasn’t Bitcoin’s 16th Birthday…

Bitcoin’s “real” Birthday is on January 3rd.

On January 3, 2009 Satoshi Nakamoto mined Bitcoin’s first block, officially launching the Bitcoin blockchain.

Regardless, the anniversary of the white paper is still a significant event in Bitcoin’s history.

With a market cap of ~$1.4 trillion, it’s just behind 9th placed Meta.

And just days before the anniversary, Bitcoin climbed to a high of $73,600.

$200 short of setting a new all-time high…

Imagine if it hit an all-time high on it’s 16th anniversary…

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30/10/2024

🚨BREAKING: WE’RE SO BACK 🏦

Bitcoin trades above $70,000 for first time in over seven months

Bitcoin has been on an absolute rampage today.

In fact it reached a high of ~$71,450…

Which means it’s only ~3% away from surpassing its all-time high.

But why is Bitcoin suddenly pumping?

Well there’s a number of reasons, let’s break them down.

Rate Cuts

According to CME FedWatch, the market is predicting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% on November 7.

The Fed began it’s rate cut cycle on September 7, back when Bitcoin was ~$54,000.

Bitcoin ETF flows

The US Bitcoin ETFs have also seen a surge in inflows.

Over the past 12 trading days, the Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of ~$4 billion.

BlackRock’s IBIT alone has taken in ~$2.6 billion.

The Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $479.4 million to open the week.

The United States Presidential Election

The price of Bitcoin has become somewhat correlated with the odds of a Trump victory on Polymarket.

And with the odds of a Trump victory surging recently, the price of Bitcoin responded positively.

There’s only 6 days to go now until the election…

The days ahead are set to be chaotic and likely extremely impactful to the markets.

Notable events include:

Nov 5: US Presidential election
Nov 7: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Nov 8: US October employment data

And Bitcoin is within striking distance of setting a new all-time high?

We’re so back. 😎

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29/10/2024

🚨 BREAKING: SAYLOR TO HELP MICROSOFT 🏦

Microsoft Could Make ‘Next Trillion Dollars’ With Bitcoin, Says Michael Saylor

On Thursday last week, some massive news dropped surrounding Microsoft.

On December 10, Microsoft shareholders will be voting on whether or not the tech giant should invest in Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.

Microsoft adopting Bitcoin would be insane…

Funnily enough, MicroStrategy is mentioned in Microsofts letter to shareholders regarding this proposal:

“Corporations that invest their assets wisely can, and often do, increase shareholder value more than more profitable businesses that don’t. Therefore, corporations have a fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder value not only by working to increase profits, but also by working to protect these profits from debasement.” - Microsoft letter to shareholders

Continuing on, the letter explains:

“Microstrategy - which, like Microsoft, is a technology company, but unlike Microsoft holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet - has had its stock outperform Microsoft stock this year by 313% despite doing only a fraction of the business that Microsoft has.” - Microsoft letter to shareholders

Saylor often posts charts to X that highlight MicroStrategy’s outperformance, but check these two out.

Since adopting a Bitcoin strategy in August 2020, MicroStrategy has outperformed the entire S&P 500.

That’s crazy.

Before 2020, MicroStrategy was essentially a “zombie” company.

It’s revenues were barely growing and it’s stock price was basically the same for over 10 years.

Something needed to change…

Bitcoin reignited MicroStrategy into the insane out-performer it is today.

And now other tech giants are starting to take note…

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28/10/2024

Traders 😎🫱🏻‍🫲🏼

28/10/2024

😎🤑

28/10/2024

70,000k let’s go 👻👻

25/10/2024

🚨BREAKING: NOW THIS IS BIG 🏦

Bernstein analysts label their $200,000 bitcoin price prediction for end of 2025 as ‘conservative’

Global asset management firm Bernstein just released a “Black Book” on Bitcoin.

These “Black Books” are highly regarded, in-depth research reports published specifically for institutional investors.

It’s a big deal that they published one for Bitcoin…

Such as their 2025 end of cycle price target (which they’ve labelled “conservative”):

“Bitcoin is going to $200,000 this cycle (2025 end)… We are being conservative.” - Gautam Chhugani

$200,000 is conservative? We’ll take that…

Continuing on in the report, lead analyst Gautam Chhugani explained:

“If you are a Bitcoin skeptic … maybe, a limited supply, ‘store of value’ digital asset is not such a bad thing in a world where U.S debt hits new records ($35 trillion now) and threats of inflation still loom. If you like gold here, you should love bitcoin even more.” - Gautam Chhugani

And just touching on the US debt point that Gautam raised...

US debt has increased by $473 billion over the last 3 weeks.

It now stands at $35.8 trillion.

But Bitcoin wasn’t the only asset that Bernstein recommended to investors.

$200,000 by the end of 2025?

And that’s on the conservative side?

Sign us up. 😎

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24/10/2024

😎😎

24/10/2024

🚨BREAKING: WHO IS SATOSHI NAKAMOTO? 🕵️

Bitcoin documentary threatens safety of Satoshi Nakamoto suspect

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto?

So far no one has definitively been able to identify who the anonymous Bitcoin creator “Satoshi Nakamoto” is.

2 weeks ago HBO released a documentary titled “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery”.

🚨 SPOILER WARNING 🚨

Skip over this section if you haven’t watched the documentary yet.

This.
Is.
Your.
Final.
Warning.

After exploring a bunch of potential candidates, the documentary ends up revealing Peter Todd as their main suspect.

Todd states in the final scenes of the film:

“Well yeah, I’m Satoshi Nakamoto.” - Peter Todd

But…

Todd has since clarified that this statement was taken out of context and that he was only joking.

Todd participated in the documentary as he believed it would focus on the history of Bitcoin… Not an attempt to reveal Satoshi’s true identity…

Todd explains:

“Obviously, falsely claiming that ordinary people of ordinary wealth are extraordinarily rich exposes them to threats like robbery and kidnapping. Not only is the question dumb, it’s dangerous. Satoshi obviously didn’t want to be found, for good reasons, and no one should help people trying to find Satoshi.” - Peter Todd

However Money Electric director, Cullen Hoback is sticking to his guns.

Hoback believe’s that revealing the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto is important:

“There’s potentially this anonymous figure out there who controls one-twentieth of the total supply of digital gold… [Identifying this person] is pretty important.” - Cullen Hoback

Many view the documentary’s evidence as weak and circumstantial at best.

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23/10/2024

🚨BREAKING: WILL THERE BE MORE ETFs? 🏦

Crypto ETFs Look Unlikely to Expand Beyond Bitcoin, Ethereum, Under Kamala Harris, Experts Say

We got the Bitcoin ETFs in January.

Then we got the Ethereum ETFs in July.

But now everyone is asking: what will be next? 🤨

Well so far we’ve seen issuers apply for: Solana, XRP & Litecoin ETFs.

Grayscale even filed for a combination ETF that contains Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Avalanche.

ETF experts don’t see these ETFs being approved if Kamala Harris wins the US election.

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas explains:

“It won’t happen if Harris wins, regardless of the issuer.” - Eric Balchunas

Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, also has the same opinion:

“It seems highly unlikely that a Harris administration would approve additional spot crypto ETFs, at least not anytime soon after the election.” - Nate Geraci

But there’s also another factor to consider…

And so far, BlackRock hasn’t filed for any additional crypto ETFs…

According to Eric Balchunas, if Trump wins the election there’s a “decent chance” we’ll see more crypto ETFs approved.

Regardless of whether or not BlackRock joins in on the fun or not.

For all you crypto ETF hopefuls out there…

Trump has currently taken a sizeable lead according to Polymarket…

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22/10/2024

🥲

22/10/2024

🚨BREAKING: LARGEST CRYPTO ACQUISITION 🏦

Stripe acquires stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion in crypto’s largest acquisition

Crypto’s largest acquisition EVER just took place. 😲

Fintech giant Stripe acquired stablecoin platform Bridge in a deal valued at $1.1 billion.

Bridge, founded by Sean Yu and Zach Abrams, provides software that helps companies accept stablecoin payments.

Bridge had previously raised $58 million from investors at a $200 million valuation.

But this isn’t Stripes first move into the stablecoin space…

Earlier this month, Stripe reinstated crypto payments for US businesses via USDC.

Stripe also signed a partnership with Coinbase, which saw:

◼️Stripe incorporate Coinbase’s Ethereum Layer 2 Base into its crypto payment products
◼️Coinbase add Stripe as a way for customers to purchase crypto within Coinbase Wallet

The big money is bullish on crypto…

A $1.1 billion dollar deal is nothing to laugh about…

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21/10/2024

🚨 BREAKING: TIME FOR LIFT OFF 🚀

US spot bitcoin ETFs reach highest recorded total asset value after six-day inflow streak

The Bitcoin ETFs just had a MONSTER week.

In total, they experienced net inflows of $2.13 billion for the week.

That’s the largest weekly inflow we’ve seen since March!

Here’s who came out on top for the week:

◼️BlackRock IBIT: $1.14 billion 🥇
◼️Fidelity FBTC: $318.8 million 🥈
◼️ARK Invest ARKB: $306.1 million 🥉

BlackRock really is just that far ahead of the competition.

The Bitcoin ETFs also set a new record for total asset value.

Grayscale’s GBTC did however launch with 619,187 BTC, which has padded the stats quite a bit.

Still, it’s an impressive accomplishment.

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also pointed out that this week saw the Bitcoin ETFs cross over $20 billion it total flows (inflows minus outflows).

According to Eric, it took the gold ETFs ~5 years to hit this number…

The price of Bitcoin has also been grinding higher this week, up 8.26% in the last 7 days.

We’re within striking distance of setting a new all-time high.

This is the “Uptober” we were waiting for. 🚀

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18/10/2024

18/10/2024

🚨 BREAKING: ETFs GOING BANANAS 🍌

Bitcoin ETFs records over $800 million inflows in 2 days
So far this week has been HUGE for the Bitcoin ETFs.

They’ve been going on a rampage:

◼️Monday net inflows: $555.9 million
◼️Tuesday net inflows: $371.0 million
◼️Wednesday net inflows: $458.5 million

Which brings the weekly inflow total to $1.39 billion.

And we’re only 3 days in!

The crazy part is that BlackRock alone accounts for over 50% of the inflows, with $761.7 million so far this week.

President of the ETF Store, Nate Geraci, pointed out something very interesting with these inflows:

Only 8 out of 560+ ETFs launched in 2024 have taken in more than $1 billion…

Here’s why this is important:

Grayscales GDLC fund currently holds Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Avalanche.

This would also be the first combo crypto ETF if it gets approved.

And it paves the way for an eventual Solana, XRP or Avalanche ETF down the line.

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also thinks it may have a chance:

“Grayscale is looking to put out the first ETF that will hold spot bitcoin, ether, solana and XRP by converting GDLC. Is this poss? Maybe. Bc btc and ether make up over 90% of holdings (see below) and there’s wiggle room for ETF to have small portion of illiquid assets it may well be approved. If so, it would leapfrog everyone in the race to put out a combo crypto ETF. Discount shrank a bit so some ppl clearly think this could work.” - Eric Balchunas

We’ve got even more crypto ETF news for you today.

And whilst this is super interesting to see.

The demand for it is a little questionable…

Considering the drop off in inflows we’ve seen with the Bitcoin ETFs compared to the Ethereum ETFs.

With that being said, institutional adoption continues to grow every single day.

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17/10/2024

🚨BREAKING: THE HODLERS 💪

Time for a check in on one of our favourite charts.

The supply last active 1+ years ago metric is super simple to understand and extremely useful.

It categorises coins based on how long it’s been since they last moved on-chain. (as a percentage of the circulating supply)

◼️Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins 📈
◼️Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins 📉

Here’s the breakdown for each cohort (compared to what it was 4 weeks ago):

🔴 Supply last active 1+ years ago: 64.71% (down from 65.58%)
🟠 Supply last active 2+ years ago: 53.56% (down from 53.61%)
🟢 Supply last active 3+ years ago: 46.07% (up from 45.93%)
🔵 Supply last active 5+ years ago: 30.99% (up from 30.92%)

Over the last four weeks the 3+ and 5+ age bands saw minor increases.

Whilst the 1+ and 2+ age bands experienced minor decreases.

All in all, these metrics have remained relatively flat for the past 7 months…

Just like the price of Bitcoin…

But now that “Uptober” is here. (as we broke down in the previous section)

It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect the 1+ age band to start declining as the price of Bitcoin rises. (this is typical of bull markets)

The “banana zone” is approaching. 🍌

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17/10/2024

🫂🫂🫂

17/10/2024

🚨BREAKING: WHAT’S GOING ON? 🏦

Tesla moves entire $760 million Bitcoin stash to unknown wallets

For the first time since July, Bitcoin briefly crossed $68,000!

At the time of writing it has since settled around $67,000.

But that’s not the biggest story of the day…

Just as Bitcoiners were celebrating the sudden push towards $68,000, some odd news come out from Tesla.

Arkham intelligence reported that for the first time in 2 years, Tesla moved their Bitcoin…

In a series of transactions totalling $760 million (11,509 BTC), Tesla transferred their Bitcoin to multiple unknown wallet addresses. 🤨

By the way, they transferred their entire Bitcoin balance. (so something is definitely going on here 👀)

And the reason this is so significant is because Tesla is one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin.

As it stands, it is unclear why Tesla moved their Bitcoin after 2 years of inactivity.

Some speculate they could be preparing to sell off more coins.

Others think they are transferring their coins to cold storage.

But it’s just a guessing game right now until we learn of more details. 🤷‍♂️

As a quick recap, Tesla originally bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin back in February 2021.

However, they ended up selling 75% of their holdings in early 2022 at a loss.

As always, we’ll provide updates on this story as it develops.

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16/10/2024

🚨 BREAKING: HARRIS ON CRYPTO 🏦

Vice President Kamala Harris vows to support a crypto regulatory framework in plan to support Black men

Yesterday we broke down Donald Trump’s crypto project.

And now today, we’ve got Kamala Harris’ take on crypto…

Harris recently released a proposal titled “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”.

And according to this agenda:

More than 20% of Black Americans own or have owned cryptocurrency assets

Continuing on, the proposal explains:

“Vice President Harris appreciates the ways in which new technologies can broaden access to banking and financial services… She will make sure owners of and investors in digital assets benefit from a regulatory framework so that Black men and others who participate in this market are protected.” - Harris Campaign team

Whilst it’s great for Kamala to mention crypto in her policy frameworks, the phrasing of this proposal left some scratching their heads... 🤨

Soon after this proposal was released, Harris gave a speech at Erie, Pennsylvania.

Unfortunately…

Harris didn’t offer any more details on her plans for crypto.

In fact, Harris didn’t mention “blockchain” or “digital assets” at all, as she’s done in previous speeches.

At the end of the day, crypto is for everyone…

It doesn’t need to be reduced down to racial differences…

But we want to hear from you… 🫵

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15/10/2024

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP’S TOKEN LAUNCH 🏦

Trump-Supported World Liberty Financial Will Start Public Token Sale Next Week

No one saw this coming…

For the first time ever, a presidential candidate is about to release their very own crypto project to the public.

And the reception to this announcement hasn’t been great… (to say the least)

Trump posted the following to X on Saturday morning:

But what even is World Liberty Financial (WLFI)? What is the point of it?

First things first, the tokenomics:

◼️63% of the token supply will be sold to the public
◼️17% will go to user rewards
◼️20% to the team

Tomorrows initial sale will look to raise $300 million by selling 20% of the token supply at a $1.5 billion fully diluted valuation.

The roadmap states that WLFI will be a governance token used to vote on decisions regarding future development of the platform. These tokens will be non-transferable for the first 12 months.

The project is set to roll out in three distinct phases.

The first phase is to launch a version of DeFi lending platform Aave on the Ethereum Layer 2 network Scroll.

The second phase is to integrate with exchanges and let users on-ramp and off-ramp with onchain attestations of KYC protocols.

Also part of the final phase is the creation of a settlement platform for stablecoins.

That’s a whole lot of promises…

A token sale just 21 days out from the election…

Quite the odd move…

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14/10/2024

🚨BREAKING: INVESTORS WANT CRYPTO 🏦

Nearly 50% of U.S. Investors Plan to Invest in Crypto ETFs: Charles Schwab Survey

Financial services giant Charles Schwab conducted a survey on 2,200 investors aged between 25 and 75 years old. (annual survey)

And the results are pretty interesting…

Charles Schwab found that 45% of respondents plan to invest in crypto via ETFs over the next year.

That’s up from 38% the year prior, and even surpasses demand for Bonds and real assets. (oil, gold etc.)

Comparatively only 48% of millennial respondents opted for US stock ETFs.

Boomer ETF investors were WAY less keen on crypto, with only 15% of respondents having plans to invest.

Gen X investors were split with 44% opting for crypto and 56% opting for US equities.

But, despite crypto ranking #2 overall and Charles Schwab having access to this data…

It’s a little odd they still haven’t launched their own crypto ETFs…

Maybe that’s coming soon…

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11/10/2024

To buy more Bitcoin 😎

11/10/2024

🚨 BREAKING: FBI GETS CREATIVE 🏦

FBI creates bogus crypto to nab 4 companies, 14 people on fraud charges

US prosecutors have just charged 4 crypto companies and 14 different people with fraud and market manipulation.

And the scam that these companies conducted was a crypto all-time classic:

The Pump and Dump

These companies carried out wash trades to create the illusion of trading activity.

Investors would then think these tokens were good investments, which resulted in the price of the tokens increasing. (The Pump)

The companies would then sell their tokens at the artificially set high price. (The Dump)

United States Attorney Joshua Levy put out the following statement:

“These are cases where an innovative technology – cryptocurrency – met a century old scheme – the pump and dump. The message today is, if you make false statements to trick investors, that’s fraud. Period. Our Office will aggressively pursue fraud, including in the cryptocurrency industry.” - Joshua Levy

As part of the investigation, the FBI created a fake crypto company called NextFundAI.

And prosectors claim that ZM Quant, CLS Global and MyTrade agreed to help manipulate the token.

Jodi Cohen, special agent in charge of the FBI, Boston Division had this to say:

“The FBI took the unprecedented step of creating its very own cryptocurrency token and company to identify, disrupt, and bring these alleged fraudsters to justice.” - Jodi Cohen

Investing in crypto is a risky game.

That way, at most you’re only putting 10-30% of your total portfolio into the ultra risky plays.

Stay safe out there. 🫡

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