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21/06/2024

Hey Siouxland friends,

The flooding risk today is extreme in some areas, and I wanted to make sure all of you are aware of the situation.

Some areas in Siouxland received as much as 10 inches of rain in the last 24 hours, with substantially more rain possible today. In the worst case scenario, this could result in record flooding on the Rock River and major flooding along the Sioux River. This also could result in multiple roads across NW Iowa and SE South Dakota becoming impassable or even washed out.

Please avoid travel this evening in Lincoln/Lyon counties and other heavily flooded areas. If you know people in these areas and especially near the rivers, please make sure they are aware how dire the situation is. Personally, if I lived in Sioux or Rock River flood plains I would be evacuating or preparing to at this time.

I saw a fantastic tornado in southeast Wyoming today! Link to video is in the comments (otherwise the Facebook algorithm...
21/06/2024

I saw a fantastic tornado in southeast Wyoming today! Link to video is in the comments (otherwise the Facebook algorithm won’t share it)

10/05/2024

We are anticipating the strongest solar storm in some years to impact earth later today. This creates an unusually high probability for northern lights viewing. While northern lights visibility is never a guarantee because of a number of variables and limited knowledge to forecast them, you will rarely have a night with as high an odds of visibility as tonight.

29/04/2024

The U.S. has seen an unusually active start to the severe weather season, and that is expected to continue tomorrow with a substantial severe weather risk in NW Iowa. If you would like to receive text alerts warning you of severe weather, detailed email forecasts, or any other personalized forecasting please check out my options at tomorrowsweatherforecast.com or DM me.

If cost is a barrier, DM me and we can work something out! I also offer one time forecasting for events.

All of my NW Iowa friends, stay weather aware and be safe tomorrow!

Yesterday Elayne and I had a successful storm chase with a close range tornado intercept near Kendall, Kansas. Check out...
28/04/2024

Yesterday Elayne and I had a successful storm chase with a close range tornado intercept near Kendall, Kansas. Check out our video!

Cell phone footage of a tornado taking out farm shed and powerlines a few miles north of Kendall, Kansas on Saturday, April 27, 2024. Nobody was injured and ...

25/07/2023

Wherever you are in the United States, you can receive text alerts when hazardous weather threatens your location!

If this is a new idea to you and you aren't sure about it, now you can try it out for free with the code "freetrial" at check out! The code only works for the simple forecast tier (text alerts), but if you want to trial a different tier, dm me or email me at [email protected] and I'll give you a code!

A tornado warning & severe thunderstorm warning are currently in effect for portions of NW Iowa. A separate storm recent...
03/07/2023

A tornado warning & severe thunderstorm warning are currently in effect for portions of NW Iowa. A separate storm recently produced a landspout tornado near Yankton. Each storm that develops is expected to be short lived this evening, but there is so much energy they are becoming severe rapidly before dissipating.

03/07/2023

It's looking like a messy 4th of July for many in the Midwest... Be informed on the risks to your plans by receiving comprehensive forecasts via email, now 50% off with the code "SIOUXLAND" at checkout!

20/05/2023

The northern lights were briefly visible a half hour ago (just before 11 PM) and data shows similar conditions coming in the next half hour, so northern lights may be visible again shortly! If you are trying to see it, make sure to go to a place with minimal light pollution

A Tornado Watch has been issued for some areas of Nebraska, SE South Dakota, and western Iowa. Tornadic storms are devel...
12/05/2023

A Tornado Watch has been issued for some areas of Nebraska, SE South Dakota, and western Iowa. Tornadic storms are developing in Nebraska and will move northeast during the afternoon and evening.

May is here, and storms are possible nearly every day in the forecast for many people across the Midwest!With the Simple...
06/05/2023

May is here, and storms are possible nearly every day in the forecast for many people across the Midwest!

With the Simple Forecast, I just send you a a simple text every time hazardous weather is in the forecast, telling you the risks.

With the Comprehensive Forecast or the Sioux County blog, I give you a detailed rundown of the timing, chances, and potential strength of each round of storms.

If you want detailed personalized forecasts your weather app can't provide, sign up at

Personalized ForecastsSubscribe to the personalized forecasting option that best fits your need! The Simple Forecast $10.00 every month Receive short-form text forecasts the day before an anticipated hazardous weather event. Subscribe See Example The Comprehensive Forecast $20.00 every month Receive...

23/04/2023

An extremely strong solar storm is hitting earth right now, making northern lights visible very far south in Europe. I am not confident it will be long enough lived to be visible after dark in the U.S. but it’s worth following.

I have seen recent reports of northern lights currently visible in the city of Berlin.

Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watch’s have been issued across Siouxland and surrounding areas. Reminder that to contin...
19/04/2023

Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watch’s have been issued across Siouxland and surrounding areas.

Reminder that to continue to receive my forecasts you will need to subscribe at tomorrowsweatherforecast.com/subscriptions

If you want to follow the craziest weather around the country, I am using the "Tomorrow's Forecast" twitter page as a pl...
15/04/2023

If you want to follow the craziest weather around the country, I am using the "Tomorrow's Forecast" twitter page as a place for sharing the craziest weather events across the country. Follow me at the link below: 👇

Our goal is to improve public safety by raising awareness of hazardous weather through affordable personalized weather forecasts Tomorrow's Forecast LLC

Tier Spotlight: The Simple ForecastFor just $10 a month, you can receive texts like the one attached in advance of every...
12/04/2023

Tier Spotlight: The Simple Forecast

For just $10 a month, you can receive texts like the one attached in advance of every hazardous weather risk for your home location, anywhere in the United States!

And if you are located in Sioux County, purchasing this tier comes with complementary access to the Sioux County blog, where you can find highly detailed forecasts like the ones you are used to seeing on this page! At your request, you can even receive blog forecasts directly to your email!

Sign up for The Simple Forecast or other subscription tiers at https://www.tomorrowsweatherforecast.com/subscriptions

10/04/2023

Heads up: The name of this page will change to ”Tomorrow’s Forecast” tomorrow!

If you missed my previous announcement, I have started a weather consulting/forecasting business, Tomorrow’s Forecast LLC. More can be found here: tomorrowsweatherforecast.com

05/04/2023

Big Announcement:

For years I have provided free hazardous weather forecasting for Siouxland. It has been a life-long goal of mine to be able to forecast weather as a career. Today I am taking the leap to make that happen by launching my weather forecasting business, Tomorrow’s Forecast LLC! This business will offer weather forecasting services for both individuals and businesses.

For individuals, I am offering a multi-tier subscription model to receive hazardous weather forecasts for your location at the level of detail that makes sense for you. I will also offer one-time forecasts, so you can receive a personalized forecast for any situation!

For businesses, I will offer one time forecasting for any situation, as well as contracted forecasting at discounted rates!

In order to launch this business I have dropped to part-time at my day job and am hoping to be able to run my business full time in the near future! This extra time and schedule flexibility will allow me to provide higher quality forecasting.

Because I am attempting to make weather forecasting a career, detailed forecasts will be subscription based and no longer available for free on this page. For those of you in Sioux County, I will offer comprehensive forecasts on a Sioux County specific blog, discounted from my standard pricing. This page will be renamed to “Tomorrow’s Forecast” and repurposed to support my business and reach the entire country. To continue to receive my forecasts and support me, please go to tomorrowsweatherforecast.com and check out the services I have to offer!

March 30-31 Storm Update:Severe threat:Strong storms are possible after sunset tonight. The SPC has the entire area unde...
30/03/2023

March 30-31 Storm Update:

Severe threat:
Strong storms are possible after sunset tonight. The SPC has the entire area under a marginal risk of severe weather, but the chances of severe weather look very low to me. If you do get severe weather, quarter sized hail is the only notable threat. Warm air is still rushing into the area from the south as I am writing this (4:20 PM CT). The temperature is 66 degrees in Sioux City and 40 degrees in Sioux Falls at the moment of writing. I expect the strongest storms to occur in areas above 50 degrees later this evening.

Snow threat:
Tomorrow evening a quick 0-3 inches of snow is expected to fall across the area, with most areas expected to receive 1-2 inches of snow.

While the snow accumulations are expected to be pretty low, they will be accompanied with very strong winds across the area. Winds may gust as high as 55 mph in some areas, and the impacts are expected to be most substantial north of Sioux Falls. Blizzard Warnings are in effect for many areas in the north and west. A map is attached below of warnings (Blizzard in red). Winter Weather Advisories are issued further south (in blue). The advisories may be extended southeast tomorrow if snow totals or wind are trending higher.

Part of the consideration for the Blizzard Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories is existing snowpack. They generally correlate with the areas with the most pre-existing snow, as that will contribute to the amount of blowing snow.

Edit: Condition deterioration (due to snow) is expected to begin tomorrow afternoon in the Western edges of the area and reach the Iowa/Minnesota border in the 6-8 PM range. So most of the snow impacts are expected to be evening into overnight tomorrow.

Bizarre Storm to Bring Severe Storms & Snow (March 30-31):This is quite a weird storm. This post will just be a severe f...
29/03/2023

Bizarre Storm to Bring Severe Storms & Snow (March 30-31):

This is quite a weird storm. This post will just be a severe focused post, with a possible update tomorrow and a snow focused post to follow tomorrow also.

A powerful system will move through the area, bringing in a wild temperature swing and wild weather.

Tomorrow very warm air will move into the area from the south, stopping where accumulating snow still exists. To illustrate the massive temperature difference the snowpack will make, Sioux City is currently forecast to have a high around 73 degrees on Thursday, but Sioux Falls is only forecast to reach about 45 degrees.

Areas in this warm air will see the potential of evening storm formation Thursday along the cold & warm boundary. These storms could become severe, with hail being the primary severe threat. At this time it looks like the severe threat will be along and just southeast of the boundary of snow cover in SE South Dakota and NW Iowa. Attached is a snow cover map so you can see approximately where this boundary is. The severe threat will also extend south into NE Nebraska.

The severe threat for this is quite low. Storms are expected to develop in a line and it looks like only the strongest storms will have potential to produce severe hail (around quarter sized).

The threat for snow is on Friday and is mostly focused on the northwest half of the area where snowpack still exists, though you could all see a few flakes.

Further east, a significant severe threat exists on Friday. If you have friends in central or eastern Iowa, you may want to warn them of the risk of severe storms on Friday.

24/03/2023

Northern lights visible right now! I have ground confirmation in Sioux County

Narrow Snow Band Tonight (March 22):A narrow snow band will set up in Siouxland this evening, with 1-4 inches of snow po...
22/03/2023

Narrow Snow Band Tonight (March 22):

A narrow snow band will set up in Siouxland this evening, with 1-4 inches of snow possible in the very narrow region affected by this band.

Attached is an HRRR model run showing an example of this band. Please don't take the numbers on this model as a precise forecast. I normally don't attach model data, but this band is forecast to be so narrow I thought this would be the easiest way to illustrate it.

Most of you can expect 0-2 inches of snow tonight. If the band hits you directly you may receive as much as 4 inches of snow. It is hard to know exactly where this band will set up, and you could see a gradient as tight as 3 inches of snow in 10 miles at the edge of this band. In my opinion, the attached photo is the most likely placement for this band but with such a narrow band a slight path deviation can make a big difference.

Wind is only expected to be around 10 mph, so that won't be a factor. This band also isn't expected to have a big impact on temperatures.

The NWS has not issued any advisories in Siouxland for this snow as of time of post.

Thursday March 16 Snowstorm:A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for nearly the entire area for Thursday and early AM Fr...
15/03/2023

Thursday March 16 Snowstorm:

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for nearly the entire area for Thursday and early AM Friday.

I’m traveling so can’t make a map, but attached is the latest NWS map. I think the high end totals on this map for each location are unlikely, but otherwise pretty much agree with it.

The storm is expected to hit around sunrise on Thursday morning. Initially precipitation may be rain or sleet, as the temperature will likely be above freezing for the first few hours of the storm. As the temperature rapidly falls during the morning, precipitation will switch to snow and the wind will pick up. The heaviest snow is expected to fall Thursday morning shortly after the switch from rain to snow. As the temperature drops, the snow will become less wet and more powdery, and snowfall will generally get lighter. Snow is expected to move out of the area by sunset Thursday. By mid-afternoon Thursday, wind gusts are forecast to be in the 40-45 mph range and remain this high until after midnight. This may lead to periodic blizzard conditions, especially in SW Minnesota where occasional gusts to 50mph are forecast.

Blowing snow is expected to continue with windy conditions on Friday and Saturday.

10/03/2023

Saturday March 11 Minor Snow:

A large snowstorm is passing north of the area, and a band extending south from it is expected to impact Siouxland tomorrow.

This snow is expected to start Saturday morning and end late Saturday afternoon.

1-3" of new snow is expected across the area, with isolated higher totals north of Sioux Falls. In the southern half of the area, precipitation may briefly shift to rain during the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 30s Saturday afternoon.

March 8-9 Winter Storm Forecast:Another round of snow is coming to Siouxland. Are you sick of it yet?This storm will imp...
08/03/2023

March 8-9 Winter Storm Forecast:

Another round of snow is coming to Siouxland. Are you sick of it yet?

This storm will impact the area starting tonight and carrying through the day Thursday, with most impacts on Thursday.

Tonight through Wednesday, scattered light snow and rain showers will impact the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 30s across most of the area on Wednesday, so any snow that does accumulate overnight should melt during the day, and rain is possible during the afternoon. I expect the storm to just be a minor inconvenience on Wednesday, with 1" or less of snow expected across the whole area.

The bulk of the storm is expected to arrive Thursday morning, with accumulating snow expected for all of Siouxland. Despite temperatures being forecast to rise into the low to mid 30s in much of the area, all precipitation is currently expected to fall as snow! Snow may melt off the ground as it is falling, helping to alleviate travel impacts. Melting snow is especially likely in the Sioux City area, where temperatures are forecast to be the warmest.

The storm has been tracking to the east as we get closer to the event, so the snow forecast is generally looking lower now than it was yesterday. Nearly all accumulation is expected to occur during daylight hours on Thursday. The snow will be a heavy wet snow due to the warm temperatures. The wind will be breezy on Thursday with gusts around 25 mph, but this will not be enough to blow snow significantly, due to how heavy and wet it will be.

The most significant impacts are expected in the southeast and especially further east into central & eastern Iowa. A narrow band of heavier totals is also possible on the north edge of Siouxland due to the higher topography of east central South Dakota and SW Minnesota.

I work a long day tomorrow, but I might post an update late tomorrow evening if I have time!

22/02/2023

Update:

Sioux and O’Brien counties have been added to the Blizzard Warning. Snow did redevelop on the heavy side this morning, leading to a greater blowing snow threat than anticipated for these areas.

As I continue to trial run bringing forecasts to YouTube, this time I made a forecast for a larger area than just Siouxl...
21/02/2023

As I continue to trial run bringing forecasts to YouTube, this time I made a forecast for a larger area than just Siouxland!

If you like the forecast, please like and subscribe to the channel!

If you have feedback, feel free to message me or comment below!

I will add a brief Siouxland Specific text forecast in the comments.

0:00 Introduction & Overview 1:01 Future Radar & Current Radar as of Tuesday around noon 4:21 Model Analysis 7:53 SREF NWS Ensemble Forecast 9:52 NWS Sioux F...

20/02/2023

A major snowstorm will impact the area Tuesday - Thursday, with the bulk of the impacts on Wednesday.

I probably won't have time to post my forecast until Tuesday. Most impacts will not begin until Tuesday night, so I should still be ahead of it. But I just want everyone to be have an early heads up this storm looks very significant, especially in southern Minnesota.

17/02/2023

Northern Lights Possible tonight:

Hi everyone! Just wanted to let you know there is a small chance the northern lights will be visible on your horizon tonight!

The moon will be down, clouds are forecast to be mostly clear, and a solar storm is forecast to impact earth this evening!

The solar storm is forecast to be bit too weak to produce visible northern lights in your area, but if it overperforms with a south tilting magnetic field it will be visible!

I would put the odds of it being visible with the naked eye at 20%… So don’t get too excited for it, but if you have nothing going on keep an eye out and you may get lucky!

Late night Friday - Saturday SnowstormA brief narrow snow storm will impact Siouxland tonight into tomorrow bringing ver...
27/01/2023

Late night Friday - Saturday Snowstorm

A brief narrow snow storm will impact Siouxland tonight into tomorrow bringing very significant travel impacts on Saturday.

Snow is expected to fall for only about 12 hours, starting in the hours around midnight tonight and ending mid-day tomorrow. However, this will come with a rapid drop of temperatures into the single digits as snow is falling. This will lead to very powdery snow with a low moisture content, aiding heavy snowfall rates. Snow is expected to set up in a fairly narrow band over the area and not move much through the duration of the event. This will likely result in very sharp gradients of accumulation on the edges of the storm.

The storm will also be accompanied by breezy conditions on the back end, with gusts to 25 mph. Given the potentially high accumulations and powdery nature of this snow, I think blowing snow will be a major problem all day on Saturday. 25 mph winds isn't enough to typically cause white-out conditions, but is enough to cause significant drifting with snow this powdery. If possible, I would recommend avoiding travel on Saturday.

This map is not much like the map I would have made 10 hours ago, meaning there remains a fair bit of uncertainty with this storm. My current forecast disagrees quite substantially with the latest forecast from the National Weather Service which is something I don't like to do. My forecast is assuming a further north track than the NWS, with colder temperatures leader to a higher snowfall rate and higher total accumulations. I will attach the NWS forecast in the comments. Please check out their forecast also because they are a smart group.

I may post updates if this storm deviates from my forecast.

27/01/2023

**Update: I posted a forecast**

I was going to put out a forecast for Saturday's snowstorm this evening, but due to unusually high uncertainty I am going to wait until tomorrow for this one.

The uncertainty is mostly due to this being a very narrow and brief storm, meaning that exact placement and snowfall rates are very important for an accurate forecast. For example, my current forecast for Sioux County is 2-7" which is not a satisfactory range.

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