18/12/2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 13 FINAL
Low Pressure Area (formerly “ ”)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 18 December 2023
“KABAYAN” WEAKENS INTO A REMNANT LOW
Location of Center (4:00 PM)
The Low Pressure Area was estimated based on all available data in the vicinity of Impasug-ong, Bukidnon (8.3°N, 125.1°E)
Intensity: Central pressure of 1006 hPa
Present Movement: Northwestward at 25 km/h
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
No Wind Signals currently in effect
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow afternoon
• 100-200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, and Davao Oriental.
• 50-100 mm: Central Visayas, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Davao City, Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, the southern portions of Samar and Eastern Samar, and the rest of Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte.
Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow afternoon to Wednesday afternoon
• 50-100 mm: Mainland Palawan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and Kalayaan Islands
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, the Shear Line coinciding with the passage of the remnants of KABAYAN may bring heavy rainfall over the eastern portion of Southern Luzon. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 6 (Intermediate) issued at 5:00 PM today and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 PM today.
Severe Winds
The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will bring gusty conditions for the next 2 days over the following areas, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
• Today and Tomorrow: Most of Luzon and Visayas
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the Northeast Monsoon surge, a Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters along the seaboard of Northern Luzon, the eastern and central seaboards of Visayas, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for small seacraft (including all motor bancas of any type or tonnage). Mariners of these vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No.6 issued at 5:00 PM today.
Outside the coastal waters under Gale Warning, moderate to rough seas are likely over the western seaboards of Central (1.5-3.5 m) and Southern Luzon, the western and northern seaboards of Mindanao, and the remaining seaboard of Visayas (1.25-3.0 m). Mariners of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• KABAYAN weakened into a Low Pressure Area at 2:30 PM today. The remnant circulation of KABAYAN is forecast to track generally northwestward or west northwestward traversing the Philippine archipelago over the next two days as it remains highly disorganized. On the track forecast, KABAYAN will continue to cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao, and emerge over the Sulu Sea between this afternoon and evening. Afterwards, a slight improvement in the environmental conditions may allow this disturbance to reorganize and re-develop into a tropical depression.
• Afterwards, KABAYAN will move across the Sulu Sea south of Cagayancillo Islands. KABAYAN is forecast to make another cross over central or southern Palawan by tomorrow morning or afternoon, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea shortly thereafter. It may pass near or over Kalayaan Islands between tomorrow evening and Wednesday morning.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Unless re-development occurs, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance. Succeeding updates will be provided in the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast at 4:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
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