21/09/2024
Hurricane Phenom 🌀 update...
Attention 🚨 Gulfcoast especially Northern Gulfcoast residents!
Florida has a storm problem next week! Could be a Major prolem.
Starting to see some and I mean some model agreement with soon to be cyclone geniuses in the North West Carribbean. This looks to take place on Monday Tuseday of next week time frame.
Once formed most likely the name Helene would be used, unless a system becomes Helene in middle Atlantic. Then the NW Atlantic system gets name Isaac. None the less there will be a storm forming in and around the NwlW Atlantic.
After forming this system looks to be in just about ideal conditions, this is my worry as to the stronger it gets before entering the Gulf of Mexico on its journey North North West as forecasted by most global models. The more likelihood of a Major Hurricane threat for the Northern Gulf Coast.
Speaking of threats it's to early in the forecasting process to pin point landfall 7 days out, however my thinking is the following... Northern Gulfcoast.
Highest threat (Pink color) = Mobile, AL - Steinachatchie, FL
Medium threat (Orange color) = Morgan City, LA - MS/AL boarder to the West & Steinhatchee, FL - Sarasota, FL to the East.
Low threat = (Green Color) TX/LA boarder - Morgan City, LA to the West & Sarasota, FL - The Keys/ Miami to the East.
Final thoughts for now... This storm is a classic late September early October set up... meaning look out 👀! Waters are plenty warm, shear at least early to mid range looks impressive for strengthening, storm looks to avoid landmass (this is a guess at this time as there is no true center yet).
Historically this system should be pulled out of the NW Atlantic make it's journey to central or eastern Gulf of Mexico and then slowly bend to the East/right on apporch to most likely FL panhandle area or Eastern Gulf of Meico region. Similar to dear i say the name Michael.
As for Intensification there is decent model support for a Major Hurricane and my best guess at this time is CAT 3/4.
I would begin prep for Helene from Mobile, AL to Lake City, FL as early as Wednesday & Thursday September 24th/25th with a potential landfall near Panama City, FL on Friday 26th or Saturday 27th of September.
Yes there is potentially a double whammy for Florida... but let's not get over our skies just yet. This would be the week after Helene, early October.
One more thing I would like to point out is this system will be a large and expansive storm, meaning rain and some wind will impact a large region of the Gulf coast. I am becoming concern for heavy rain set up over FL Peninsula as the rivers system is maxed out in some regions, this could still be a problem even if storm makes landfall in 100 of miles away.
Disclaimer: Follow your local weather authorities for storm related weather info. Nhc.noaa.gov | weather.gov
Photo cred: Reagan Westy | Tropical Tidbits | Noaa.gov | AccuWeather Bernie Rieno | weatherbell Joe Bastardi
This has been a Hurricane Phenom update🌀 stay tuned for a other full update and potentially video cut on Monday.
Hurricane Phenom | Reagan Westy
