07/11/2022
Hurricane Zombie Update... see image below for forecast path!
Nicole (Real chance of becoming a Hurricane) takes AIM on FL EAST COAST through out the week!.
Hurricane Watches have been issued on FL East Coast between Volusia County Line to the north to Hallandale Beach to the south. However it is important to note the storm surge watch is for a larger portion of the coast all the way up to GA/SC Boarder south to Hallandale Beach.
Key take aways...
Somewhat unusual track/storm for November but have had hurricane hits in November (KATE CAT 2 landfall in 1985 Northern Gulf Coast).
Large circulation don't focus on center line
Long duration event multiple day fetch event (winds battering the a large portion of the East Coast from South FL all the way to NC and places in between.
Florida peninsula look out for a large sprawling hurricane hit Wednesday into Thursday and lingering into Friday.
Conditions ahead look decent for strengthening as water temps are 1/1.5 degrees above average for this time of year.
Slight chance for Rapid Intensification as conditions are trying to improve over the storm, however how large of a circulation it has could impede RI from occurring. Forecast of between 980-970 MB should hold, which is a strong Cat 1/2.
Final thoughts...
Don't focus on just the landfall point/path of the storm, this storm will leave its mark far from the center of the storm. Wide ranging impacts from SoFL up the east coast to NC will feel affects and potential flooding.
The size of this storm will catch many by surprise. it will also shock those that think the Hurricane Season has ended, unfortunately it's not over & could be caught off guard.
My biggest concern is that of MAJOR BEACH EROSION with the passage of Ian 6 weeks ago, the east facing beach of FL will again be pounded and houses right on the water could be destroyed, also river flooding as this could become a 3/4 day event of heavy rain at times, backed up rivers, long duration fetch occurring at mouth of rivers.
Again I want to stress Nicole will be a wide ranging impactful storm along with a multi day event, as Nicole approaches FL crosses the Peninsula and possibly reaches the Gulf of Mexico before turning back to the North and East.
Far reaching impacts i.e.
Beach erosion
Flooding rains
Multi-day fetch event
Inland flooding with river backups espcially the (St. Johns River) Major Flooding concerns.
Wind over a large area, center and 100 of miles away from center.
Slight risk currently for RI (Rapid Intensification).
Projected landfall is Melbourne, FL as a CAT 1 90MPH Hurricane.
Disclaimer: This is my forecast and mine along, please follow www.weather.gov or NHC.noaaa.gov for storm related info.
Photo Cred: tropicaltidbits.com | nhc.noaa.gov
Forecast via Hurricane Zombie | Reagan Westy
